| 项 | 目 | 2025年12月 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 快递服务业务收入（亿元） | | 58.36 | 28.23% | | 完成业务量（亿票） | | 25.01 | 11.09% | | 快递服务单票收入（元） | | 2.33 | 15.35% | 根据公司于2025年11月4日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于收购浙江丹鸟 物流科技有限公司100%股权的进展公告》（公告编号：2025-082），公司收购的浙江丹鸟物流科 技有限公司（以下简称"丹鸟物流"）100%股权已经完成工商变更登记手续，丹鸟物流及下属控 股子公司自2025年11月起纳入公司的合并报表范围。丹鸟物流作为国内品质快递及逆向物流服务 提供商，其并入公司合并报表后，公司整体的快递业务量及快递服务收入规模将进一步增长。其 中，12月份公司快递业务量同比增长11.09%，快递服务单票收入同比增长15.35%。 上述快递服务单票收入计算如有差异为四舍五入原因所致。上述数据未经审计，与定期报告 披露的数据之间可能存在差异，请以公司定期报告为准。 证券代码：002 ...

中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，"价格战"转向"价值战"背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质 更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为 显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递（600233）(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递（002468）(002468.SZ)、韵达股 份（002120）(002120.SZ)及顺丰控股（002352）(002352.SZ)。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。"反内卷"背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件 化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量"去泡沫"，行业件量增速中枢下移预期 下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长 8%左右)，"降本、提质、增效"的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。 深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识 1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," with market share expected to concentrate among companies that offer better service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks [1] Policy Aspects - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, effectively curbing vicious competition, with multiple provinces raising express delivery prices. From August to November, the single ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express companies has shown a continuous upward trend [2] - The "social insurance new regulations" are anticipated to enhance cost-price transmission paths, potentially leading to increased labor costs in the express delivery industry, which may be passed on to consumers through price hikes [2] Industry Aspects - With the growth rate of express delivery volume slowing, value competition is becoming crucial. The rational return of express prices and the reduction of small parcel trends are expected, with the industry volume growth rate forecasted to decrease [3] - The expected growth rates for express delivery volume are 13.7% year-on-year in 2025 and around 8% in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" for companies to gain market share [3] Cost Reduction Potential - In the transit segment, the marginal cost reduction effects from scale are diminishing, with major franchise express companies focusing on optimizing routes and improving sorting efficiency. As of H1 2025, the single ticket transit cost for "Tongda" express companies has dropped to approximately 0.60 yuan [4] - In the last-mile delivery segment, which significantly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, there remains substantial potential for cost optimization through automation and innovation. The cost burden for new technologies is primarily borne by franchisees, making the performance of these networks critical [4]

Market Overview - The logistics sector experienced a decline of 0.25% on January 14, with Jushen Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yongtaiyun (001228) saw a significant increase of 10.00%, closing at 29.36, with a trading volume of 53,200 shares and a turnover of 153 million yuan [1] - Debang Co. (603056) rose by 9.97%, closing at 15.44, with a trading volume of 24,000 shares and a turnover of 37 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers included Pulutong (002769) with a 3.56% increase and Haicheng Bangda (603836) with a 2.88% increase [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 256 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 305 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks like Shentong Express (002468) had a net inflow of 52.18 million yuan from institutional investors, while Yongtaiyun (001228) had a net inflow of 35.33 million yuan [3] - Jushen Co. (001202) reported a net inflow of 17.34 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net outflow from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector experienced a decline of 0.53% on January 13, with Longzhou Co. leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.4, down 1.37% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The logistics sector saw individual stock performances with notable gainers such as Jushen Co. (up 10.02% to 19.44) and Pulutong (up 10.00% to 13.75) [1]. - Longzhou Co. led the decline with a drop of 9.94% to 7.79, followed by Xiamen Xiangyu (down 2.84% to 8.22) and Xiamen Guomao (down 2.36% to 7.04) [2]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Jushen Co. had a trading volume of 229,200 shares and a transaction value of 441 million yuan, while Pulutong had a volume of 468,300 shares and a value of 618 million yuan [1]. - Longzhou Co. recorded a trading volume of 1,475,900 shares with a transaction value of 1.206 billion yuan, indicating significant trading activity despite the decline [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 419 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 380 million yuan [2]. - Individual stocks like Pulutong had a net inflow of 64.9 million yuan from institutional investors, while Jushen Co. saw a net inflow of 35.9 million yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.8% on January 12, with Pulutong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - Pulutong (002769) closed at 12.50, up 10.04% with a trading volume of 236,200 shares and a transaction value of 287 million [1] - Jushen Co. (001202) closed at 17.67, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 89,400 shares and a transaction value of 155 million [1] - Haichen Co. (300873) closed at 23.96, up 6.49% with a trading volume of 102,900 shares and a transaction value of 239 million [1] Other Notable Performers - ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 44.73, up 5.00% with a trading volume of 8,733 shares [1] - Longzhou Co. (002682) closed at 8.65, up 4.22% with a trading volume of 1,328,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.134 billion [1] - Chuanhua Zhili (002010) closed at 6.53, up 3.98% with a trading volume of 855,200 shares and a transaction value of 555 million [1] Market Capital Flow - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 125 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 137 million [2] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.465 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Pulutong (002769) had a net outflow of 98.917 million from institutional investors, with a 34.51% share of the net inflow [3] - Jushen Co. (001202) saw a net inflow of 62.575 million from institutional investors, representing 40.47% of the net inflow [3] - China Foreign Trade (601598) had a net inflow of 27.1398 million from institutional investors, accounting for 11.32% of the net inflow [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express (002468) has announced that its normal throughput capacity is expected to meet its target by the end of 2025, and investors are advised to monitor future regular reports for updates on the 2026 capacity planning [1] Group 1 - The company has confirmed its throughput capacity goals for 2025 [1] - Investors are encouraged to stay updated on the company's future reports regarding capacity planning for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved its expected capacity target for 2025 and will provide updates on its 2026 capacity plans in future reports [1] Group 1 - An investor inquired about Shentong Express's capacity goals for 2026 and whether the company plans to further scale up [1] - As of January 9, 2023, Shentong Express confirmed that its normal throughput capacity has met the expected target by the end of 2025 [1] - The company advised stakeholders to monitor its regular reports for updates on the 2026 capacity planning [1]