在业务量方面，公司前三季度完成快递业务量188.6亿件，同比增长17.1%，市场占有率达13.0%，业务 规模稳步提升。在"反内卷"持续推进的背景下，申通快递积极构建"内涵式增长"，提升服务品质，三季 度实现量价齐升，经营质量持续向好。 申通快递公布的月度经营数据显示，公司8月份单票收入2.06元，环比增长4.6%，同比增长3.0%；9月份 单票收入2.12元，同比增长4.95%，反内卷以来涨价效果显著，公司单票快递收入得到大幅修复。随 着"双11"大促来临，多地已针对旺季开启第二轮涨价，"反内卷"后期展望乐观，随着单票价格回升，申 通快递有望实现盈利水平的持续提升。 中证报中证网讯(王珞)10月27日，申通快递（002468）发布2025年第三季度报告。报告显示，前三季度 公司实现营业收入385.7亿元，同比增长15.2%；归母净利润7.56亿元，同比增长15.8%；扣非归母净利 润7.58亿元，同比增长18.7%，其中第三季度实现扣非归母净利润3.22亿元，同比大增59.6%。 今年9月份，申通快递2025年全国网络大会上明确了申通"内涵式增长"的战略路径，坚定转向体验领先 的高质量发展模式，注重"服务品 ...

Core Insights - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 756 million yuan, up 15.81% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 758 million yuan, reflecting an 18.71% increase [1] - In Q3 alone, the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 59.62% to 322 million yuan [1] Business Performance - The company completed a total of 18.86 billion express deliveries in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, with a market share of 13% [1] - The "anti-involution" initiative has led to a rise in both volume and price, improving operational quality [1][2] Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" movement initiated by the State Post Bureau has prompted several regions to raise minimum express delivery prices, contributing to a gradual recovery in express delivery pricing since August [2] - For instance, the minimum price in Yiwu increased from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, while Guangdong's base price rose by 0.4 yuan to approximately 1.4 yuan [2] - Shentong Express reported an increase in single-package revenue, with August's revenue at 2.06 yuan (up 4.6% month-on-month) and September's at 2.12 yuan (up 4.95% year-on-year) [2] Strategic Focus - The company has adopted a strategy of "in-depth growth" aimed at enhancing customer experience and service quality [3] - Shentong Express has introduced various innovative service products, such as "Shendongdong," "Fresh Enjoy," and "First Class," to cater to diverse customer needs [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to optimize operational efficiency across the entire delivery chain [4] Technological Advancements - Shentong Express has implemented a "smart" fleet with intelligent driving vehicles to enhance safety and efficiency in transportation [4] - The introduction of an "intelligent visual platform" has significantly reduced mis-sorting and damage rates during the sorting process [4] - The company has also launched AI-driven customer service platforms to improve automation and efficiency in customer interactions [4] Capacity Expansion - The company aims to increase its daily capacity to 90 million packages, an increase of 15 million packages compared to the previous year, to better support service during peak seasons [4] - The shift towards rational competition in the industry is expected to enhance overall value, with Shentong Express focusing on high-end market expansion [4]

Core Insights - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [1] - The net profit reached 756 million yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 758 million yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase [1] - In Q3 alone, the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 59.6% to 322 million yuan [1] Business Performance - The company completed a total express delivery volume of 18.86 billion pieces in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [1] - Shentong's market share reached 13.0%, indicating a steady increase in business scale [1] Industry Trends - The State Post Bureau has actively opposed "involution" in the express delivery industry, promoting a shift towards high-quality development since August [2] - Regions like Guangdong and Fujian have initiated price increases for express services, with the minimum price in Yiwu raised from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, and Guangdong's base price increased from 1 yuan to approximately 1.4 yuan [2] - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in express delivery prices since August, leading to improved revenue per package for companies [2] Strategic Initiatives - Shentong Express has adopted a strategy of "intrinsic growth," focusing on enhancing service quality and customer experience [3] - The company has launched innovative service products such as "Shendongdong," "Fresh Enjoy," and "First Class Cabin," aimed at attracting high-end quality merchant clients [3] - Shentong is leveraging AI technology to optimize operational efficiency across the entire delivery chain [3][4] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a "smart" fleet with intelligent driving assistance to enhance transportation safety and efficiency [4] - An "intelligent visual platform" has been implemented to reduce mis-sorting and damage rates during the sorting process [4] - Shentong has introduced AI-driven customer service platforms to improve automation and efficiency in customer interactions [4] - The company has established six core delivery scenarios utilizing unmanned vehicles to strengthen last-mile delivery capabilities [4]

Core Insights - The transportation sector experienced a net outflow of funds amounting to 3.58 billion yuan on October 28, with 126 stocks in the sector, of which 72 rose and 45 fell [1] Fund Flow Summary - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow of funds were Qin Port Co., Ltd. (1.74 billion yuan), Xiamen Port Authority (1.69 billion yuan), and Haitong Development (47.49 million yuan) [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflow of funds included China Merchants Energy (95.87 million yuan), Daqin Railway (90.14 million yuan), and Ganyue Expressway (83.35 million yuan) [2] Performance Summary - The transportation sector rose by 0.24% on the same day, with the overall market index (Shanghai Composite Index) declining by 0.22% [1] - The top performers in terms of daily price increase included Qin Port Co., Ltd. (10.03%), Xiamen Port Authority (10.00%), and Haitong Development (10.04%) [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reported 1632.26 points on October 23, down 8.9% from October 16. The VLCC market remains cautious due to the implementation of special port fees between China and the US, leading to a weak sentiment among shipowners [2][13] - Guangdong Province has released a high-quality development plan for the low-altitude economy, aiming to establish itself as a national leader in this sector. The civil aviation industry has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total transport turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][15][16] - In Shenzhen, the monthly delivery volume of autonomous vehicles has surpassed one million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in express delivery volume in September. The postal industry reported a total business income of 152.57 billion yuan in September, up 6.8% year-on-year [2][22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The CTFI reported a decrease of 8.9% [2][13] - Guangdong's low-altitude economy development plan aims to optimize airspace management and promote low-altitude logistics [15][16] - Shenzhen's autonomous vehicle delivery volume has exceeded one million, with express delivery volume growing by 12.7% [22][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index has shown a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [26] - Domestic cargo flights have increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights have risen by 15.86% [32] - The express delivery business volume in September increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with total business income reaching 127.37 billion yuan [50][54] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [4]

Group 1 - Shentong Express experienced a decline of 5.07% on October 28, with a stock price of 15.16 yuan per share and a trading volume of 508 million yuan, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.207 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on November 1, 2001, and listed on September 8, 2010, is based in Qingpu District, Shanghai, and primarily engages in domestic express delivery, general freight, cargo transportation agency, warehousing services, and unloading services [1] - The main revenue composition of Shentong Express is 98.67% from express services and 1.33% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - According to data, Yinhua Fund has one fund heavily invested in Shentong Express, specifically the Yinhua Digital Economy Stock Initiation A (015641), which held 4.9651 million shares, accounting for 5.6% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Yinhua Digital Economy Stock Initiation A fund was established on May 20, 2022, with a current size of 443 million yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 35.98%, ranking 1376 out of 4218 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Wang Xiaochuan, has a tenure of 3 years and 163 days, with the fund's total assets amounting to 2.02 billion yuan, and the best return during his tenure being 77.45% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 21.02 [1][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue and net profit have shown significant year-on-year growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching RMB 13.546 billion, up 13.62% year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 302 million, up 40.32% year-on-year [1][2]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the industry is expected to continue, leading to a recovery in pricing and benefiting the company, which is anticipated to enhance its service capabilities and market share [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.18%, improving both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which positively impacted net profit per ticket, reaching RMB 0.046 [3]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 38.570 billion, with a net profit of RMB 756 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.17% and 15.81%, respectively [1][2]. Industry Context - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 49.43 billion pieces in Q3 2025, growing 13.3% year-on-year, while the average price per piece decreased by 4.4% [2]. - The company’s express delivery volume was 6.52 billion pieces in Q3 2025, up 10.7% year-on-year, with a business revenue of RMB 13.04 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pricing recovery will continue into Q4 2025, supported by the e-commerce peak season and ongoing regulatory measures against "involution" [4]. - The company is also in the process of acquiring Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics Technology Co., which is expected to enhance its quality express delivery services and expand into regional distribution and instant retail markets [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to RMB 1.323 billion, RMB 1.687 billion, and RMB 2.015 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.10, and RMB 1.32 [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 19.1x for 2026, reflecting a premium due to its superior cost control capabilities and expected benefits from pricing improvements [5].

2025年10月28日，申通快递(002468.SZ)发布2025年三季报。 公司最新总资产周转率为1.45次。最新存货周转率为424.70次。 公司股东户数为4.07万户，前十大股东持股数量为9.95亿股，占总股本比例为65.03%，前十大股东持股情况如下： | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股 | | --- | --- | --- | | l | 浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司 | 25.01 | | 2 | 上海恭之润实业发展有限公司 | 16.1 | | 3 | 上海德殷投资控股有限公司 | 7.76 | | 4 | 上海德润二实业发展有限公司 | 4.90 | | 5 | 陈德军 | 3.38 | | 6 | 陈小英 | 2.65 | | 7 | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 2.03 | | 8 | 珠海市天阔投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 1.19 | | g | 上海思勰投资管理有限公司-思勰投资梧桐一号私募证券投资基金 | 1.06 | | 10 | 广发基金管理有限公司-社保基金四二零组合 | 0.96 | 公司最新资产负债率为63.10%，较上季度资产负债率增加0.71个百分点，较去年同期资产负债率 ...

对于社保基金，本期新披露持有申通快递的社保基金共计1个，即广发基金管理有限公司-社保基金四二 零组合。 2025年10月28日，申通快递(002468.SZ)发布2025年第三季报。截至2025年10月27日，共有16个机构投 资者披露持有申通快递A股股份，合计持股量达9.24亿股，占申通快递总股本的60.39%。其中，前十大 机构投资者包括浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司、上海恭之润实业发展有限公司、上海德殷投资控股有限 公司、上海德润二实业发展有限公司、香港中央结算有限公司、珠海市天阔投资合伙企业(有限合伙)、 上海思勰投资管理有限公司-思勰投资梧桐一号私募证券投资基金、广发基金管理有限公司-社保基金四 二零组合、太平人寿保险有限公司-传统-普通保险产品-022L-CT001深、银华数字经济股票发起式A，前 十大机构投资者合计持股比例达60.22%。相较于上一季度，前十大机构持股比例合计下跌了1.55个百分 点。 公募基金方面，本期较上一季度新披露的公募基金共计7个，主要包括银华数字经济股票发起式A、万 家内需增长一年持有期混合、万家瑞隆A、长盛动态精选混合、万家景气驱动混合A等。本期较上一季 未再披露的公募基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express (002468.SZ) reported a revenue of 38.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 756 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 758 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.71% [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.5057 yuan [1]