| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 2,548 | 2,450 | 2,670 | 2,942 | 3,244 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.2% | -3.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | | 营业利润 ( 百万元 ) | 1,055 | 976 | 1,067 | 1,170 | 1,279 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | -7.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | | 归属母公司净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 899 | 827 | 907 | 994 | 1,087 | | 同比增长 (%) | 21.1% | -8.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0. ...

Stock Information - Stock price as of April 30: 14.21 yuan [1] - 52-week price range: 11.60-26.08 yuan [1] - Total shares outstanding: 1,154 million shares [1] - Total market capitalization: 16,397 million yuan [1] Investment Rating - Maintains "Outperform" rating [5] Core Views - Q1 2024 revenue declined by 1.5% YoY to 749 million yuan, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [6] - Net profit increased by 3.9% YoY to 272 million yuan in Q1 2024 [6] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 decreased by 4.17 percentage points YoY to 52.1%, mainly due to the use of high-priced raw materials [7] - Expected improvement in gross margin from Q2 2024 as lower-priced raw materials are utilized [7] - Sales collection in Q1 2024 decreased by 1.8% YoY to 727 million yuan [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 2,717 million yuan, 2,986 million yuan, and 3,250 million yuan, respectively [14] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: 927 million yuan, 1,028 million yuan, and 1,128 million yuan, respectively [14] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 0.80 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.98 yuan, respectively [14] - Gross margin expected to improve to 52.2% in 2024 and remain stable at 52.3% in 2025-2026 [14] Operational Highlights - Continued focus on multi-category product matrix, with pickles as the core and side dishes as a new growth driver [12] - Expansion into online channels and untapped markets [12] - Reduction in sales expense ratio by 5.63 percentage points YoY to 12.2% in Q1 2024 [13] - Management expense ratio decreased by 0.60 percentage points YoY to 2.6% in Q1 2024 [13] - Net profit margin increased by 1.91 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in Q1 2024 [13] Valuation and Recommendations - Target price range for 2024: 16.07-20.08 yuan, based on 20-25x PE ratio [13] - Comparable company valuations show an average PE ratio of 27.13x for 2022, 46.87x for 2023, and 33.65x for 2024 [10]

食品饮料/调味发酵品Ⅱ 投资评级：买入（上调） 渠道产品改革推进，2024 年营收有望逐季回暖 展望全年，我们预计公司收入逐季回暖。同时 2024 年初公司采购的低价青菜头 （采购均价约 800 元/吨）有望于 2024 年 5-6 月份投入使用，成本红利有望于 2024Q2 逐步显现。 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|-------|---------------|--------------------------|----------------|--------------|-----------------------------|-------|-------------------------------|-----------|-------|-------| | 附：财务预测摘要 \n资产负债表 ( 百万元 ) | 2022A | 2 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 双拓战略推进，业绩保持稳健 投资建议：24 年公司以"稳住榨菜，夯基拓新，寻求增长"为战略指引， 继续推进双拓（拓市场和拓品类），做大佐餐开味菜，24 年有望实现稳健 增长（营收增速目标 12%）。预计 24-26 年营收分别 27.45/30.58/33.84 亿 元，同增 12%/11%/11%，归母净利润分别 9.30/10.43/11.63 亿元，同增 13% /12%/12%，对应 PE 分别为 17X/16X/14X，维持"买入"评级。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 涪陵榨菜（002507） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------------| | 现金流量表 ( 百万元 ) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 偿债能力 | | 净利润 | 898.79 | 826.58 | 930.17 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2024 年一季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.02 元 涪陵榨菜（002507）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） Q1 收入小幅承压，净利率持续改善 高基数下收入承压，期待品类扩张与渠道拓展。24Q1实现收入 7.5亿元，同比 下降 1.5%，收入端承压主要系 1）去年同期存在高基数，22Q4 受疫情影响生 产及物流，部分发货移至 23Q1；2）整体消费需求复苏较为缓慢，商超渠道客 流量下滑趋势持续。展望未来，伴随公司双拓战略的持续推进，一方面以榨菜 酱为代表的新品有望在全国范围内加强铺货力度，新品放量贡献收入端增量； 另一方面公司借助 2 元价格带 60g 产品，有望在低线市场进一步提升覆盖率， 持续深化渠道拓展与下沉。 高价原料拉低毛利率，费用节约带来净利率提升。24Q1公司毛利率为 52.1%， 同比 4.2pp；毛利率承压主要系：1）公司目前仍在使用去年的高价原料（23年 受减产影响青菜头采购价上涨近 40%）；2）榨菜销量下降致使规模效应减弱， 固定摊销成本相对增加。费用率方面，24Q1 公司销售费用率为 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|-----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | [Table_MainInfo] \n | [Table_Title] 涪陵榨菜 (002 ...

使用本研究报告的风险提示及法律声明 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 5 - 证券研究报告 食品综合 分析师： 涪陵榨菜 （ 002507 ） 事件：公司公告 24Q1 季报，24Q1 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净 利润 7.49/2.72/2.59 亿元，同比-1.53%/+3.93%/+6.29%。24Q1 基本 EPS 为 0.24 元。 公司调整继续，收入同比承压。24Q1 收入同比-1.53%，收现同比-1.84%， 与收入增速基本吻合，预收账款环比-41.59%，预计与公司架构调整下主 动控货有关，当前预计公司仍在进行大经销商的调研和规划，收入同比下 降与高基数有关，其中预计榨菜增长仍存压力，为支持经销商共克时艰， 相应公司加大了对客户的授信额度，应收账款同比+221.33%。23Q4+24Q1 收入同比-1.25%，基本符合预期。 收费用对冲毛利率压力，盈利能力同比改善。24Q1 归母净利率 36.29%， 同比+1.91pct，扣非归母净利率 34.57%，同比+2.54pct，拆分如下：1） 24Q1 毛利率为 52.11%，同比-4.17pct，23Q4+24Q1 毛利率 ...

费率同比优化，期待成本红利 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ）/食 品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 28 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.00 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by 10% to 15% over the next 12 months [26][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.49 billion CNY in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.72 billion CNY, up 3.93% year-on-year. The revenue decline is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [25][5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in profit margins due to a decrease in procurement costs for key ingredients, with expectations for improved gross margins in 2024 [25][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 2548 - 2023A: 2450 - 2024E: 2653 - 2025E: 2915 - 2026E: 3207 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -3.86%, 2024E: 8.30%, 2025E: 9.86%, 2026E: 10.03% [3][5]. - **Net Profit (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 899 - 2023A: 827 - 2024E: 923 - 2025E: 1020 - 2026E: 1124 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -8.04%, 2024E: 11.69%, 2025E: 10.51%, 2026E: 10.15% [3][5]. - **EPS (CNY/share)**: - 2022A: 1.01 - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.80 - 2025E: 0.88 - 2026E: 0.97 [3][5]. - **P/E Ratio**: - 2024E: 16.27 - 2025E: 14.73 - 2026E: 13.37 [3][5]. - **ROE (%)**: - 2023A: 10.03% - 2024E: 10.53% - 2025E: 10.99% - 2026E: 11.45% [3][5]. - **EV/EBITDA**: - 2024E: 9.80 - 2025E: 9.03 - 2026E: 7.96 [3][5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights a net profit margin of 36.29% in Q1 2024, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost management and reduced sales expenses [25][5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 52.11%, down 4.17 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by high inventory costs and changes in product mix [25][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from lower procurement costs for key ingredients, with a projected cost of 800 CNY per ton for green vegetables starting from May 2024, which is anticipated to enhance profit margins [25][5]. - The expansion of product channels, particularly in the restaurant sector, is expected to drive revenue growth in 2024 [25][5].

公司投资评级说明： 食品饮料组团队介绍 ——大众品研究组（低度酒、软饮料、乳肉制品、烘焙休闲食品、食品配料等） 助理研究员：严文炀 涪陵榨菜（002507）2024 年一季报点评 分析师声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 Q1 报表低点，期待国改提速 目标价：15.8 元 当前价：13.02 元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------|-------------------|-----------------------------|-------| | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入 ( 百万 ) | 2,450 | 2,667 | 2,881 | 3,112 | | 同比增速 (%) | -3.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | | 归母净利润 ( 百万 ) | 827 | 910 | 1,012 | 1,105 | | 同比增速 (%) | -8.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% | | 每股盈利 ( 元 ) | ...