公司研究·公司快评 食品饮料·休闲食品 投资评级：买入（维持评级） 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 事项： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年02月29日 国信食饮观点：2023 年公司收入增长承压，盈利能力受损。（1）瓜子品类动销承压，2023 年第四季度收 入增长乏力；（2）全年利润率受到成本端冲击，下半年盈利能力已有恢复；（3）年货节礼盒动销良好， 成本下行有望贡献利润弹性。我们认为公司经营策略稳健，作为零食行业龙头对于渠道和产业链具有较强 的把控能力，伴随 2024 年消费环境复苏，收入增速有望恢复，利润率在成本下行趋势下也有望修复。根 据业绩快报，我们修正 2023 年盈利预测，并下调 2024-2025 年盈利预测：我们预计 2023-2025 年公司实 现 营 业 总 收 入 68.1/76.2/85.6 亿 元 （ 前 预 测 值 为 72.5/81.7/92.4 亿 元 ） ， 同 比 -1.1%/12.0%/12.3%;2023-2025 年公司实现归母净利润 8.1/9.7/10.9 亿元（前预测值为 8.3/10.9/12.3 亿 元），同比-1 ...

(%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (33%) (26%) (19%) (12%) (5%) 2% Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24 洽洽食品 深圳成指 绝对 0.9 4.8 (8.7) (25.5) 相对深圳成指 1.7 (4.0) (4.5) (4.7) 相关研究报告 《洽洽食品》20231030 《洽洽食品》20230828 《洽洽食品》20230501 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 食品饮料：休闲食品 春节错期下全年营收微降，关注后续利润修复弹性 洽洽食品披露 2023 年业绩快报，全年实现营收 68.1 亿元，同比-1.1%，实现 归母净利润 8.1 亿元，同比-17.5%。4Q23 单季实现营收 23.3 亿元，同比-6.9%， 实现归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比-14.3%。春节连续错期致 2023 全年营收微降， 葵花籽成本压力下归母净利率下滑。2024 年营收、归母净利有望快速修复， 长期品类扩张、渠道扩张基础坚实。预计公司 23-25 年 E ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 春节错期或致 Q4 承压，24 年关注成本改善 事件：公司 2024 年 2 月 27 日发布 2023 年业绩快报，全年实现 营收 68.06 亿元（yoy-1.13%），实现归母净利润 8.05 亿元 （yoy-17.50%），实现扣非归母净利润 7.09 亿元（yoy-16.27%）。 单季度来看，2023Q4 实现营收 23.27 亿元（yoy-6.90%），实现归 母净利润 2.99 亿元（yoy-14.31%），实现扣非归母净利润 2.85 亿 元（yoy-11.60%）。 我们的分析和判断： 1、收入端：公司 2023 全年实现营收 68.06 亿元，同比-1.13%。 2023Q4 实现营收 23.27 亿元，同比-6.90%。整体来看，公司 Q4 营收承压，我们预计主要由于今年春节跨期，导致公司 12 月份 发货受到了一定的影响。 2、盈利能力：公司 2023 全年实现归母净利润 8.05 亿元，同比 -17.50%，归母净利率 11.83%，同比-2.35pct；2023Q4 实现归母 净利润 2.99 亿元，同比-14.31%，归母净利率为 12.86%，同比 - ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/食品加工 证券研究报告 洽洽食品（002557）公司公告点评 2024 年 02 月 28 日 002557 CH Chacha Food Rating: OUTPERFORM Target Price: Rmb51.00 Yuxuan Zhang yx.zhang@htisec.com 单四季度利润率压力趋缓，期待 24 年营 收/利润双复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 受春节跨期&葵花籽原料价格上涨影响，23 年营收利润有所承压。据公司业 绩快报，2023 年由于第一季度和第四季度均受到春节跨期因素的影响，因此 营收有所下滑。不过 21-23 年营收 CAGR=6.64%，整体收入依然保持稳健成长。 盈利能力端，参照业绩快报，受到葵花籽原料采购成本上升的影响，23 年公 司实现归母净利率 11.83%，同比 22 年降低 2.35pct。我们认为，23 年公司盈 利表现受到上游原材料价格上涨的不利影响，不过随着后续上游原物料价格 压力趋缓，期待公司利润率重新回归向上通道。 公司 23Q4 营收有所下滑，我们认为主要系受到 24 年春节较晚导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue and profit in 2024, with a projected revenue of 75.12 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.36 billion yuan [3][30]. - The company faced revenue and profit pressure in 2023 due to the impact of rising raw material prices and the timing of the Spring Festival [2][12]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 is projected to be 11.83%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points compared to 2022 [12]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 68.10 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 17.50% [29]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.58 yuan, with projections of 2.04 yuan and 2.38 yuan for 2024 and 2025 respectively [3][31]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover to 31.1% in 2024, up from 29.0% in 2023 [31]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has been focusing on channel development and expanding its market presence, particularly in the snack segment, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2024 [22]. - The company is enhancing its penetration in e-commerce channels and exploring overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [22]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation range of 20-25 times for 2024, indicating a reasonable value range of 40.80 to 51.00 yuan per share [3][19].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total operating revenue of approximately 6.806 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.13% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 805 million CNY, down 17.50% year-on-year [3] - The sunflower seed category saw a slight decline, primarily due to a high base in 2022, while the nut category experienced growth [3] Group 2: Sales and Market Development - In December 2023, sales in the snack wholesale channel reached approximately 30 million CNY, with January 2024 sales nearing 50 million CNY [3] - The company plans to enhance its presence in the snack wholesale channel by expanding product offerings and increasing penetration [3] Group 3: Procurement and Pricing - Current sunflower seed procurement prices are about 10% lower compared to the peak prices in April and May 2023, with plans for supplementary purchases after the 2024 Spring Festival [3] Group 4: Seasonal Performance - The company experienced strong sales growth in January 2024, influenced by the full month of shipping due to the Spring Festival, compared to only half a month in the same period last year [3] - Overall sales performance during the Spring Festival was favorable, particularly in lower-tier markets, with good inventory levels among distributors [3] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company has consistently aimed to provide stable returns to shareholders since its listing, and with sufficient funds and limited future capital expenditures, there is potential to increase the dividend payout ratio [3]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 02 月 27 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 33.86 | | 一年内最高/ 最低（元） | 48.28/29.21 | | 市净率 | 3.2 | | 息率（分红/ 股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17167 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3015.48/9269.57 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2023 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 10.49 | | 资产负债率 % | 40.25 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万） | 507/507 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was slightly affected by multiple factors, including the impact of the Spring Festival and rising sunflower seed procurement costs, leading to a slight decline in revenue and profit [1] - The company focused on channel refinement projects, improving weak markets, breaking through in rural areas, and expanding new scenarios and channels, which increased the penetration rate of daily nuts and nut gift boxes [1] - E-commerce channels, such as Douyin and Pinduoduo, continued to break through, and overseas markets deepened their penetration in Southeast Asia, leading to a recovery in overall sales [1] - For 2024, revenue and profit are expected to recover steadily, with lower base effects for sunflower seed products and new products and channels expected to contribute to growth [1] - Nut products are expected to accelerate channel refinement, increase product distribution, and new products are expected to contribute incremental growth [1] - Sunflower seed costs are expected to decline, leading to a clearer trend of net profit margin recovery quarter by quarter [1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,806 million in 2023E to RMB 9,174 million in 2025E, with a CAGR of 15% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 805 million in 2023E to RMB 1,302 million in 2025E, with a CAGR of 13% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.59 in 2023E to RMB 2.57 in 2025E [1] - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 21.3 in 2023E to 13.2 in 2025E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 2.9 in 2023E to 2.1 in 2025E [1] Financial Ratios and Performance - Revenue growth rate is expected to rebound from -1.1% in 2023E to 17.2% in 2024E and 15.0% in 2025E [8] - Net profit margin is forecasted to recover from 11.9% in 2023E to 14.4% in 2024E and 14.2% in 2025E [8] - ROE is expected to improve from 14% in 2023E to 17% in 2024E and 16% in 2025E [1] - Debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 24.1% in 2023E to 17.4% in 2025E, indicating improved financial health [8] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to recover significantly from RMB 267 million in 2023E to RMB 1,306 million in 2025E [7] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease from RMB -323 million in 2023E to RMB -213 million in 2025E [7] - Financing cash flow is expected to remain negative but improve from RMB -299 million in 2023E to RMB -54 million in 2025E [7] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price as of February 27, 2024, was RMB 33.86, with a market capitalization of RMB 17,167 million [4] - The company's performance is in line with market expectations, and the "Buy" rating is maintained based on the expected recovery in revenue and profit growth [13]

公司研究 春节跨期影响短期业绩，关注后续成本走势 要点 春节错期影响短期业绩，终端动销持续修复。受春节错期影响，23Q4 收入端增 速有所放缓。坚果产品货值相对较高，礼赠属性更强。公司坚果品类以礼盒产品 为主，1 月春节备货期间表现较好，预计可拉动 24Q1 业绩实现较快增长。品类 方面，2023 年葵花籽品类终端动销表现逐步修复，其中原香瓜子收入增势稳健； 蓝袋瓜子价格带相对略高，收入增速低于红袋瓜子。新产品中打手瓜子价格定位 略高于红袋瓜子，2023 年收入体量超亿元，产品工艺差异化下预计 2024 年有 望保持较好表现。高端系列葵珍瓜子收入表现相对稳定，单品体量维持在亿级水 平。为应对白牌产品竞争，公司推出毛嗑、葵大大等副品牌瓜子，2023 年预计 收入体量在 3-4 亿元；考虑到当前消费环境下消费者价格敏感度提升，预计 2024 年副品牌瓜子收入仍有望保持较高增速。坚果品类年节期间动销良好，公司持续 推进口味型坚果在电商、便利店等渠道的试销布局；坚果乳饮品跟进"贴奶"战 略，亦作为独立单品进行试销。其他品类中，薯片品类 2023 年收入表现相对持 平，公司推出薯条产品进一步丰富休闲食品品类；花生品类收 ...

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