Summary of Conference Call on Light Industry Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the light industry sector, specifically the paper and metal packaging industries [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Paper Industry Dynamics**: - The paper industry has been affected by pollution permit policies since 2018, but most companies received approval, allowing for continued operations [1][2]. - Currently, there are no clear supply-side policies, but rising consumer goods prices may lead to inventory replenishment and demand elasticity, potentially driving up paper prices [1][2]. - The expansion cycle in the paper industry is expected to end in 2025, with no further supply increases anticipated, thus waiting for demand recovery or inventory replenishment [1][4]. - **Metal Packaging Industry Concentration**: - The metal packaging industry has a high concentration level, with the top three companies (CR3) holding 80% market share. Baosteel Packaging's acquisition of COFCO Packaging has further increased this concentration [2][3]. - If the anti-involution policy prompts Baosteel to adjust its production capacity, other companies like Orijin may cooperate, leading to potential price increases across the industry [2][4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - The light industry sector is expected to see investment opportunities emerge over the next two to three years, with a potential upward cycle anticipated [1][4]. - Recommended companies in the paper industry include stable performers like Sun Paper and more elastic options such as Jiulong Paper, Bohui Paper, and Lee & Man Paper [3][7]. - In the metal packaging sector, Orijin and Baosteel Packaging are prioritized for investment due to their potential benefits from supply-side contractions [3][9]. Additional Important Points - **Market Sentiment and Price Expectations**: - The anti-involution policy is seen as a catalyst for price increases in consumer goods, which may lead to market replenishment and improved demand, thus pushing up paper prices [1][4]. - The paper industry has historically experienced significant cycles driven by supply constraints and demand recovery, indicating that both supply and demand factors can lead to market improvements [4][6]. - **Future Projections**: - The paper industry is projected to enter an upward cycle starting in 2026, with a focus on demand recovery as no concentrated capacity will be introduced [3][6]. - For metal packaging, if Baosteel makes strategic adjustments, it could directly influence industry pricing, benefiting major players like Orijin and Baosteel Packaging [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy for Yield-Seeking Investors**: - Investors seeking returns should focus on elastic stocks such as Jiulong Paper, Bohui Paper, and Lee & Man Paper, which are expected to rebound significantly once market conditions stabilize [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the light industry sector, highlighting the dynamics of the paper and metal packaging industries, investment opportunities, and future market expectations.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among companies as they release their semi-annual earnings forecasts, with some companies showing remarkable growth while others face declines [3][19] - Key drivers for growth include market expansion, product upgrades, operational efficiency improvements, and effective cost control [21][24] Summary by Sections Semi-Annual Earnings Forecasts - Jiangxin Home reported a net profit of 410-460 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [21] - Aorijin expects a net profit of 850-960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a growth rate of 55%-75% [21] - Zhongshun Jierou anticipates a net profit of 140-160 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 59.85%-82.68% [24] - Saifutian forecasts a turnaround with a net profit of 2.55-3.80 million yuan, compared to a loss of 12.49 million yuan in the previous year [23] Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the ShenZhen Component Index increased by 2.04% [25] - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.08%, ranking 21st among 31 sectors, while the textile and apparel index increased by 0.24%, ranking 19th [25] Key Data Tracking - Real estate data shows a significant decline in property transactions, with a 35.98% decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities [34] - The price of cotton in China is reported at 15,508 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [12] - The report indicates a notable increase in furniture sales, with June 2025 sales reaching 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [9]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic market [4][9]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows a year-on-year increase of 28.7% in furniture retail sales in June, but demand has weakened since July due to the lack of new government subsidies [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector is witnessing a recovery, with Smoore's H1 2025 revenue expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating stabilization in the vaping business [15][16]. - The paper and packaging industry is experiencing price stabilization, with expectations for a recovery in demand for white cardboard and cultural paper [17][18]. - The light industry and personal care sector is facing a downturn, but there are investment opportunities in leading brands [19][20]. - The toy sector, particularly Bubble Mart, is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 94% year-on-year increase in online sales of blind boxes in Q2 [21][22]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in Q3, driven by new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Retail sales of furniture increased by 28.7% year-on-year in June, but demand has weakened since July due to subsidy issues [4][9]. - The overall real estate investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year in June, with residential construction area down by 4.3% [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - Smoore's H1 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the vaping market [15][16]. - The FDA's recent approvals for JUUL products suggest a positive trend in the U.S. compliance market [15][16]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Paper prices are stabilizing, with expectations for recovery in demand for specific paper types [17][18]. - The packaging sector is seeing improvements in profitability for metal packaging companies due to industry consolidation [17][18]. Light Industry and Personal Care - The sector is experiencing a downturn, but leading brands are still seen as investment opportunities [19][20]. - Online sales for personal care products have shown mixed results, with some categories facing increased competition [20][23]. Toy Sector - Bubble Mart is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 209% year-on-year increase in GMV [21][22]. - The overall toy market is benefiting from new operational models and IP advantages [21][22]. Two-Wheeler Market - The market is expected to rebound in Q3, with new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. - Leading companies in the sector are expected to show good growth in their mid-year reports [22][31].

Summary of the Conference Call for Aoyuan (奥瑞金) Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses Aoyuan's performance in the metal packaging industry, specifically focusing on the two-piece and three-piece can segments [2][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Q2 Performance Improvement**: Aoyuan's Q2 operating performance showed a slight improvement, primarily driven by the stable growth of the three-piece can business and profitability improvements in the two-piece can segment. However, price increases mainly covered rising costs, resulting in limited actual profit enhancement [2][3]. 2. **2025 H1 Earnings Forecast**: The forecast for Aoyuan's H1 2025 indicates a non-recurring net profit range of 154 million to 260 million yuan, with a midpoint of approximately 207 million yuan, showing improvement from Q1's 189 million yuan [3][4]. 3. **Impact of Acquisition**: The acquisition of COFCO Packaging is still in the finalization and integration phase, which has delayed significant improvements in competitive dynamics, pricing power, and profitability [4][9]. 4. **Price Increase in April 2025**: Aoyuan raised prices by 0.15 yuan in April 2025 to cover increased aluminum processing costs, reflecting enhanced pricing power due to changes in industry competition [6][11]. 5. **Non-Recurring Gains**: Non-recurring gains, such as government subsidies, had a minimal impact on Q2 performance, with a notable difference between non-recurring and recurring profits in Q1 due to early gains from the COFCO acquisition [7][12]. 6. **Outlook for H2 2025**: Aoyuan is expected to enter a consolidation phase post-acquisition, which will optimize competitive dynamics and improve pricing power and profitability [8][10]. 7. **Market Trends**: The two-piece can market is anticipated to perform better in H2 2025, with potential for significant profit growth if net profit per can increases by just 0.01 yuan. The overseas market for two-piece cans shows higher profitability potential [11][14]. 8. **Debt Management**: Aoyuan incurred over 3 billion yuan in acquisition loans, leading to interest expenses impacting quarterly performance. The company is implementing cost-cutting measures and may utilize capital market strategies to alleviate debt pressure [12][13]. 9. **Long-Term Growth Potential**: The metal packaging sector, particularly the two-piece can segment, is expected to have significant growth potential in the medium to long term, with anticipated improvements in profitability as industry dynamics stabilize [14][19]. 10. **Investment Opportunities**: The metal packaging sector should be viewed from a long-term perspective, focusing on overall industry profitability rather than short-term quarterly performance. Aoyuan and similar companies are seen as having good investment potential [17][18]. Other Important Insights - Aoyuan's integration with COFCO may involve relocating production lines overseas to address domestic supply-demand imbalances, similar to strategies employed by other companies in the industry [9][10]. - The overall stability of the three-piece can market provides a solid foundation for Aoyuan, despite the current challenges faced by the two-piece can segment [11][19].

Overview - The demand for environmentally friendly packaging materials is increasing due to rising living standards and environmental awareness in China [1][11] - Laminated steel, known for its excellent wear resistance, corrosion resistance, moisture resistance, and aesthetic appeal, is gaining popularity among downstream customers [1][11] - The projected sales volume of laminated steel in China is expected to reach 182,600 tons by 2024, with a market size of 1.528 billion yuan [1][11] Industry Development - Laminated steel is produced by combining PP or PET films with tinplate, offering superior properties compared to traditional tinplate [2][3] - The production process of laminated steel is cost-effective, with lower material costs and energy consumption compared to traditional methods [3][5] - The industry has evolved since 2006, with domestic companies like Orijin leading the way in technology and production capacity [5][20] Supply Chain - The upstream of the laminated steel industry includes suppliers of steel substrates, plastic films, and production equipment [7] - The downstream market encompasses various sectors, including food and beverage packaging, daily chemical packaging, pharmaceutical packaging, and chemical product packaging [7] Market Demand - The food and beverage packaging sector accounts for over 60% of the laminated steel demand in China [9] - The revenue of large-scale food manufacturing enterprises in China reached 894.49 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, indicating a growing market for laminated steel [9] Competitive Landscape - The laminated steel market in China is highly concentrated, with leading companies like Orijin and Baosteel Packaging holding over 50% market share [13][18] - New entrants face high technical and financial barriers, making it challenging to compete with established players [13] Key Players - Orijin Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on providing comprehensive packaging solutions and is expected to generate 13.67 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with 88.66% from metal packaging products [16] - Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer in the metal packaging sector, with projected revenue of 8.318 billion yuan in 2024, primarily from metal beverage cans [18] Future Trends - The demand for laminated steel is expected to grow as it finds applications in high-end sectors like electric vehicle battery casings [20] - Increasing environmental regulations and support for new material industries will drive companies to adopt more sustainable production practices [20]

证券代码：002701 证券简称：奥瑞金 （奥瑞）2025－临 043 号 奥瑞金科技股份有限公司 关于公司控股股东部分股份质押及解除质押的公告 奥瑞金科技股份有限公司（"奥瑞金"或"本公司"、"公司"）及董事 会全体成员保证信息披露的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏。 公司近日收到控股股东上海原龙投资控股（集团）有限公司（以下简称 "上海原龙"）函告，获悉上海原龙所持有本公司的部分股份办理了质押及解 除质押业务，具体事项如下： 证券代码：002701 证券简称：奥瑞金 （奥瑞）2025－临 043 号 二、股东股份解除质押基本情况 | | 是否为控 股股东或 | 本次 | 占其所 | 占公司 | | | | | 质 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 | 第一大股 | 解除质押 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 起始日 | | 解除 | | 权 | | 名称 | 东及其一 | 股份数量 | 比例 | 比例 | | 日期 | | | 人 | | | 致行动人 | （万股） | （%） | （% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Business Analysis - The company has completed the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, leading to a significant revenue increase of 57% year-on-year in Q1. This acquisition has reduced the risk of high revenue concentration from a single customer, with the current major customer revenue share dropping to approximately 20% [12]. - The three-piece can business is expected to maintain stable performance, while the two-piece can business shows potential for profit improvement. The company plans to relocate excess production capacity overseas, which may provide opportunities for price recovery in the domestic market [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a robust profit base from the three-piece can segment. The two-piece can production capacity is expected to exceed 25 billion cans, capturing nearly 40% of the market share. The integration with COFCO Packaging is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape in the domestic two-piece can market [12]. - The company aims to drive growth through improved gross margins in the two-piece can segment, expansion into overseas markets, and increased consumption demand domestically [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 9 times [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a positive outlook on the company's performance and potential for improvement in profitability [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.1% to 75.2%. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to decline by 35.0% to 15.0% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show a net profit of 185 to 295 million yuan, with a year-on-year change ranging from a decline of 31.2% to an increase of 9.6% [1]. - The company’s two-piece can business is under pressure due to low single can prices, while the three-piece can business remains stable and continues to contribute profits [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the two-piece can segment as the industry landscape improves, indicating a significant opportunity for profit recovery [2]. Summary by Sections Two-Piece Can Business - The two-piece can segment is currently facing profitability challenges due to pressure from low can prices, but the industry structure is expected to improve, leading to potential profit recovery [2]. - The successful acquisition of COFCO Packaging is anticipated to enhance the company's market share and bargaining power, which may facilitate price increases [2]. Three-Piece Can Business - The three-piece can business is closely tied to major clients like China Red Bull, serving as a primary profit driver. The domestic energy drink market has shown consistent growth, supporting stable profits [2]. - The report anticipates further growth in sales volume for the three-piece can segment, contributing to overall profitability [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 64.1%. The forecast for 2026 shows a decline of 12.4%, followed by a recovery of 24.9% in 2027 [3]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025-2027 is estimated at 11.4X, 13.0X, and 10.4X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3]. Financial Metrics - The total revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 23.776 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 73.9% [5]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 13.4% in 2025, with a slight decline in subsequent years [5].

[Orrgen Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=Orrgen%20Technology%20Co.%2C%20Ltd.%202025%20Semi-Annual%20Performance%20Forecast) [Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=I.%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Forecast) The company forecasts a year-over-year increase in GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025, ranging from **CNY 850 million to CNY 960 million**, representing a **55% to 75% growth**, while Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decrease by **15% to 35%**, ranging from **CNY 344 million to CNY 449 million** Performance Forecast Summary | Item | Current Period (2025 H1) | Prior Period (2024 H1) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders** | **Profit: CNY 850.17 - 959.87 million (YoY Growth 55% - 75%)** | Profit: CNY 548.50 million | | **Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Items** | Profit: CNY 343.71 - 449.47 million (YoY Decrease 15% - 35%) | Profit: CNY 528.78 million | | **Basic Earnings Per Share** | Profit: CNY 0.33 - 0.38/share | Profit: CNY 0.21/share | [Communication with Accounting Firm](index=1&type=section&id=II.%20Communication%20with%20Accounting%20Firm) The company explicitly states that the performance forecast data released has not been audited by an accounting firm - The current performance forecast has not been audited by an accounting firm[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Explanation of Performance Changes](index=1&type=section&id=III.%20Explanation%20of%20Performance%20Changes) The performance change in the current period is twofold: a significant increase in overall net profit due to the acquisition and consolidation of COFCO Packaging, recognizing approximately **CNY 460 million** in non-recurring investment income, while non-GAAP net profit declined year-over-year due to temporary factors such as rising raw material prices and increased interest expenses from acquisition loans - Net profit attributable to shareholders significantly increased year-over-year, primarily due to the acquisition and consolidation of COFCO Packaging, recognizing approximately **CNY 460 million** in non-recurring investment income[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Non-GAAP net profit decreased year-over-year, mainly impacted by two temporary factors: rising raw material prices and increased interest expenses from acquisition loans[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Risk Warning](index=1&type=section&id=IV.%20Risk%20Warning) The company advises investors that the disclosed performance forecast data is a preliminary estimate by the finance department, and the final accurate financial data will be subject to the official '2025 Semi-Annual Report', urging investors to exercise caution and be aware of investment risks - The company emphasizes that the disclosed performance forecast data is a preliminary estimate, with final data subject to the official semi-annual report, reminding investors to be aware of investment risks[6](index=6&type=chunk)

证券代码：002701 证券简称：奥瑞金 （奥瑞）2025－临 041 号 奥瑞金科技股份有限公司（"奥瑞金"或"本公司"、"公司"）及董事会全 体成员保证信息披露的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 27 日召开的第五届董事会 2025 年第二次会议及 2025 年 5 月 20 日召开的 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司合并报表范围内担保 额度的议案》，同意公司与下属公司之间、下属公司之间未来十二个月在额度内相互 提供担保，担保额度有效期为自公司 2024 年年度股东大会审议批准之日起十二个月 内。详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 29 日、2025 年 5 月 21 日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》 《上海证券报》《证券日报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的相 关公告。 一、担保进展情况概述 近日，公司与江苏银行股份有限公司无锡分行(下称"江苏银行") 签署《最高 额保证合同》，就公司全资子公司江苏奥宝印刷科技有限公司（下称"奥宝印刷"） 与江苏银行自 2025 年 5 月 28 日起至 2026 年 ...