盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 证券代码：002847 证券简称：盐津铺子 编号：2024-001 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 投资者关系活动 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 类别 □现场参观 其他（电话会议 ） 工银瑞信基金、广发基金、浦银安盛基金、嘉实基金、交银施罗德 基金、汇添富基金、长盛基金、南方基金、华宝基金、农银汇理基 参与单位名称及 参与人员姓名 金、富国基金、易方达基金、华夏基金、海富通基金等众多机构， 总计445位投资者。 时 间 3月26日 地 点 线上电话会议 董事、副总经理：杨林广先生 副总经理：张磊先生（电商负责人） 公司接待人员姓名 董事会秘书：张杨女士 财务总监：杨峰先生 Q：请简要介绍公司战略？ A：盐津铺子2017年上市，公司营业收入从2017年的7.54亿 ...

再创佳绩，势能向上 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 2,894 4,115 5,323 6,610 8,073 增长率 yoy% 27% 42% 29% 24% 22% 净利润（百万元） 301 506 676 860 1,080 增长率 yoy% 100% 68% 34% 27% 26% 每股收益（元） 1.54 2.58 3.45 4.39 5.51 每股现金流量 2.17 3.39 3.81 4.98 5.39 净资产收益率 26% 35% 32% 29% 27% P/E 44.7 26.7 20.0 15.7 12.5 P/B 11.9 9.3 6.5 4.6 3.4 备注：股价选取 2024 年 3 月 26 日收盘价 盐津铺子（002847.SZ）/食 品饮料 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 3 月 27 日 [Table_Industry] 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 ◼ 盈利预测：根据公告，我们预计公司 24-26 年营收分别为 53.23/66. ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 买入（维持评级） 3 月 26 日，公司发布 2023 年年度报告及 2024 年一季度业绩预告。 23 年实现营收 41.15 亿元，同比+42.22%；实现归母净利润 5.06 亿元，同比+67.76%；扣非归母净利润 4.76 亿元，同比+72.84%。 24Q1 预计实现归母净利润 1.5-1.7 亿元，同比增长 34.48%- 52.41%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.3-1.5 亿元，同比+32.18%- 52.51%，业绩略超预期。 总成本领先战略、渠道结构调整驱动利润率提升。23 年/23Q4 净 利率 12.3%/9.9%，同比+1.9pct/+0.9pct。1）公司近年来陆续布 局了芒果干、魔芋、鹌鹑蛋、马铃薯淀粉等大单品原材料的生产基 地，以保证供应稳定、质量可控及价格优势。24Q1 鸡蛋、油脂等 部分原材料价格回落，整体生产成本持续下降。2）商超占比下降 致销售费率降低，毛销差优化。23年销售费率12.5%，同比-3.3pct, 毛销差+2.1pct。3）23Q4 净利率环比下滑系股权激励费用、销售 推广费用集中在 Q4 计提，23Q4/24Q1 分别计提股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.22%, and a net profit of 506 million yuan, up 67.76% [1]. - The company continues to expand its product categories and channels, with significant growth in core products and a strong performance in e-commerce [1]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 33.54%, with a net profit margin of 12.29%, indicating improved profitability [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.111 billion yuan, a 20.22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 32.64% [1]. - For Q1 2024, the expected net profit is projected to be between 150 million and 170 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.48% to 52.41% [1]. Product and Channel Development - The company has seven major product categories, with significant revenue contributions from spicy snacks (1.482 billion yuan, +56.7%) and konjac products (476 million yuan, +85.0%) [1]. - Revenue from direct sales channels decreased by 10.03%, while e-commerce channels saw a growth of 98.04% [1]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has focused on controlling raw material costs, which is expected to lower costs in 2024 due to strategic agreements [1]. - The report indicates that the company is optimizing its supply chain and production lines, which is anticipated to enhance profitability further [1]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 remains unchanged, with an expected net profit of 1.025 billion yuan in 2026 [2]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.43, 4.36, and 5.23 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [2].

评级说明 证券市场是一个风险无时不在的市场。投资者在进行证券交易时存在赢利的可能，也存在亏损的风险。建议投资者应当充分深入 地了解证券市场蕴含的各项风险并谨慎行事。 风险提示 本报告中所述证券不一定能在所有的国家和地区向所有类型的投资者销售，投资者应当对本报告中的信息和意见进行独立评估， 并应同时考量各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求，必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专业顾问的意见。在任何情 况下，信达证券不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 4 满静雅，英国华威商学院管理学硕士，海外留学及工作经验获得国际化开阔视野。具 备 三年头部房企战略投资的从业经验，擅长从产业的视角挖掘上下游发展机会。 2021 年加入国泰君安证券研究所，2021/2022 年新财富团队核心成员。2023 年加入 信达证券食品 饮料团队，主要覆盖白酒板块。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 分析师声明 负责本报告全部或部分内容的每一位分析师在此申明，本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Views - The company emphasizes high cash dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 403 million yuan for 2023, which accounts for 70% of the total profit distribution [4]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.22%, and a net profit of 506 million yuan, up 67.76% year-on-year [8]. - The first quarter of 2024 is expected to see a net profit of 150 to 170 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 34.48% to 52.41% [8]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 33.54%, with a net profit margin of 12.47% [10]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 5.253 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 663 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 31% [25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.38 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.36 [25]. Market Data - As of March 27, 2024, the company's stock price is 75.67 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.84 billion yuan [2]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 59.27 to 139.50 yuan [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on channel expansion and product development, with significant growth in e-commerce and other distribution channels [11][22]. - The company has increased its number of distributors to 3,315, with a net addition of 832 in 2023 [22]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has implemented a cost-leading strategy, enhancing profitability through self-manufacturing and supply chain optimization [10]. - The selling expense ratio decreased to 12.53% in 2023, reflecting improved cost management [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in revenue and profit, with a projected net profit of 992 million yuan by 2026 [25]. - The report highlights the potential for continued optimization of profitability as supply chain capacities expand [11].

每股收益 2.58 3.48 4.56 5.80 PE 27 20 15 12 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 现金流量表（百万元） | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 净利润 | 513 | 682 | 894 | 1,137 | | 折旧和摊销 | 159 | 175 | 205 | 225 | | 营运资金变动 | -59 | 204 | 12 | -799 | | 经营活动现金流 | 664 | 1,094 | 1,149 | 598 | | 资本开支 | -345 | -420 | -399 | -374 | | 投资 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 投资活动现金流 | -296 | -420 | -399 | -374 | | 股权募资 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 债务募资 | -93 | 150 | 100 | 0 | | 筹资活动现金流 | -255 | -173 | -330 | -5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the benchmark index by over 20% [6][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2023, with total revenue reaching 4.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 42.22%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 505.77 million yuan, up 67.76% [2][22]. - The Q1 2024 earnings forecast is also promising, with expected net profit growth of 34.48% to 52.41% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its market presence through various channels, including direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce, with notable revenue contributions from the snack segment [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 33.54% and a net margin of 12.29% in 2023, reflecting improvements in profitability [4]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 5.293 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 28.62%, and net profit is expected to reach 686.54 million yuan, a 35.74% increase [22][31]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.1%, indicating a moderate level of leverage [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on multi-category and multi-brand strategies, aiming to enhance brand recognition and market share [4][21]. - The core product categories are expected to continue expanding, with plans to introduce new product lines every 1-2 years [4][21]. - The company is leveraging its supply chain and cost management strategies to maintain competitive pricing and profitability [21].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" based on continuous high growth in performance and strengthened competitiveness [35][37]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 41.15 billion with a year-on-year growth of 42.22% and a net profit of 5.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.76% for 2023 [35]. - The company’s strategy focuses on "channel leadership, product superiority, and system support," which has led to sustained high revenue growth in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [35]. - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in Q1 2024, with projected net profit growth of 34.48% to 52.41% [35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Total shares outstanding: 19,606.05 million - Market capitalization: 134.87 billion - Circulating market capitalization: 118.74 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 49.07% [1]. Financial Performance - 2023 total revenue: 41.15 billion, up 42.22% year-on-year - 2023 net profit: 5.06 billion, up 67.76% year-on-year - Q4 2023 revenue: 11.11 billion, up 20.22% year-on-year - Q1 2024 projected net profit: 1.5-1.7 billion, up 34.48%-52.41% year-on-year [35]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a multi-channel and multi-category transformation strategy, resulting in significant revenue growth across various product categories [35]. - The focus on specific product categories such as spicy snacks and jelly products has shown remarkable performance, with some categories experiencing growth rates exceeding 500% [35]. Future Outlook - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.40, 4.29, and 5.27 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [35]. - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge through enhanced supply chain efficiency and channel structure optimization, leading to improved profitability [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, with a target price corresponding to a PE ratio of 19, 14, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [35] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in performance, with a total operating revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% [35] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 506 million yuan in 2023, up 67.8% year-on-year, driven by improved supply chain efficiency and cost control [35] - The company is focusing on seven core categories and expanding through multi-channel and multi-category development, which is expected to enhance brand presence and market share [35] Financial Forecast - The forecast for main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: 5,353 in 2024E, 6,797 in 2025E, and 8,355 in 2026E, with growth rates of 30.1%, 27.0%, and 22.9% respectively [14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 721 million yuan in 2024E, 984 million yuan in 2025E, and 1,299 million yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 42.6%, 36.4%, and 32.0% respectively [14] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.68 yuan in 2024E, 5.02 yuan in 2025E, and 6.62 yuan in 2026E [14] Market Performance - The company has a total market capitalization of 135 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 68.79 yuan [35] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 61.45 to 137.61 yuan, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [35]