Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results that met expectations, with revenue of 6.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.72% [1]. - Tire sales improved quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 2024 tire sales reaching 8.26 million units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.29% [1]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with the Morocco factory expected to release 6-8 million units by 2025 and reach full capacity of 12 million units by 2026 [2]. - The company is gaining recognition as a qualified supplier for major global OEMs, enhancing its brand influence and market share [2]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 8.99 billion, 11.55 billion, and 13.05 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.21 billion, 2.48 billion, and 2.84 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects revenue of 7.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.63% [8]. - The projected diluted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.15, 2.41, and 2.76 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.72, 10.45, and 9.14 [8][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 32.89% in 2024, with a net margin of 24.62% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a record high quarterly profit in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 6.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.726 billion yuan, up 73.72% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.82%, with a net profit of 648 million yuan, up 67.48% year-on-year and 13.04% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company's tire production and sales have steadily increased, supported by the reduction of anti-dumping tax rates in Thailand, which significantly boosted profitability. The tire production reached 24.24 million units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 14.05%, while sales reached 23.36 million units, up 7.88% year-on-year [3] - The weighted cost of raw materials and shipping costs have declined, which is expected to further enhance profitability. The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.10%, but prices have started to decline post the National Day holiday, easing cost pressures [3] - The Morocco project is set to ramp up production, marking a significant step in the company's global strategy. The first batch of tires from the Morocco factory was officially produced on September 30, 2024, with expectations to release 6-8 million units in 2025 and reach full production of 12 million units in 2026, which is anticipated to be a key growth driver for the company [3] - Based on the performance in the first three quarters, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.28 billion, 2.59 billion, and 3.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.22, 2.52, and 3.25 yuan, and PE ratios of 11, 10, and 8 times [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.34 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.726 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 35.45%, up 11.08 percentage points year-on-year. The net margin was 27.22%, an increase of 9.92 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.71 billion, 11.58 billion, and 14.07 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 11.1%, 33.0%, and 21.5% [4] Production and Sales - The company produced 24.24 million tires in the first three quarters of 2024, with a production increase of 14.05% year-on-year. The sales volume was 23.36 million tires, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.88% [3] Cost Structure - The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 13.10%. However, a decline in rubber prices post-holiday is expected to alleviate cost pressures [3] Strategic Initiatives - The Morocco factory is expected to significantly contribute to future growth, with production ramping up in 2025 and reaching full capacity in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.42% and a net profit increase of 73.72% [3] - The company's Moroccan factory has successfully launched its first batch of tires, enhancing its production capabilities and meeting strong market demand [8] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 90.71 billion, 115.01 billion, and 130.13 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [21] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total market capitalization is 26,127.16 million [1] - Total share capital is 102,943.88 thousand shares [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 63.40 billion, a net profit of 17.26 billion, and a gross profit margin of 35.45% [3] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 22.30 billion, with a net profit of 6.48 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.48% [3][5] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 8.27 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [3][20] Production and Sales - The company produced 2,424.31 million tires in the first three quarters of 2024, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, with sales reaching 2,335.81 million tires, up 7.88% [4] - In Q3 2024, tire production was 815.65 million, and sales were 826.10 million, indicating a strong performance in both production and sales [4][10] Industry Outlook - The tire industry remains robust, with the company experiencing a continuous increase in production and sales volume [4] - The company is actively expanding its market presence in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in high-growth regions [4][8] Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 24.05 billion, 27.05 billion, and 34.34 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 8 [21]

感谢各位投资人大家晚上好欢迎参加森七零二零二四年三七报阶级交流会目前所有参会者均处于拼音状态下面开始拨报名和声明本次会议仅服务于邀请参会的广大投资者会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供参会者内部使用不得公开发布森七零未授权任何媒体转发本次会议相关内容 未经允许和授权的转载转发均属侵权森提林将保留追究其法律责任的权利森提林不承担因转载转发而产生的任何损失和责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策在会议开始前我们提示各位投资者在主讲嘉宾发言结束后将留有新闻时间下面有请公司领导发言谢谢 尊敬的各位徒弟朋友们大家晚上更多调研记要添加微信OKOK5892欢迎大家参加申请2024年三季报业绩交流会今天的业绩交流会还是分为两部分一个是整体听情况的介绍还有一个是问答环节 那寒暄的话呢就不多说了首先呢请总秘金总先到各位介绍一下孙启麟2024年三季报的整体经营情况有请金总大家好我先简要的把三季度的经营情况和财务情况跟大家做一个汇报三季度呢收入是22.3亿比二季度多了2. 2.2亿吧2.23亿增幅是12%这个主要是销量的增加投资具体销量一会儿我后面讲规模性利润是6.48亿后飞性利润是6.58亿6.59亿经营户头销金流是8.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a 74% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters, with the Morocco project commencing production as scheduled [1][4]. - The third quarter net profit reached a historical high of 650 million yuan, aligning with expectations. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 6.34 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 73.7% year-on-year growth [1][4]. - The company benefits from increased production and sales volumes, as well as tax rebates for semi-steel tires from its Thailand base [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.34 billion yuan (up 10.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan (up 73.7% year-on-year). The gross margin was 35.5% (up 11.1 percentage points), and the net margin was 27.2% (up 9.9 percentage points) [1][4]. - For Q3 2024, revenue was 2.23 billion yuan (up 1.1% year-on-year, up 11.8% quarter-on-quarter), and net profit was 650 million yuan (up 67.5% year-on-year, up 13.0% quarter-on-quarter) [1][4]. Production and Sales - The company produced 23.56 million semi-steel tires in the first three quarters of 2024 (up 13.7% year-on-year) and sold 22.68 million (up 7.3% year-on-year). Full-steel tire production was 685,000 (up 26.1% year-on-year) with sales of 677,000 (up 30.1% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The third quarter saw semi-steel tire production of 7.96 million (up 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter) and sales of 8.07 million (up 4.3% year-on-year, up 10.1% quarter-on-quarter) [8][9]. Strategic Developments - The first batch of semi-steel tires from the Morocco project was officially launched on September 30, 2024, with a planned capacity of 12 million tires expected to reach full production by 2026 [1][9]. - The company is implementing its "833plus" strategic plan, aiming to establish eight digital intelligent manufacturing bases globally over the next ten years, enhancing its market penetration in the U.S. and Europe [1][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward to 2.27 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.76 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.7%, 7.8%, and 12.7% [10][12]. - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 2.20, 2.38, and 2.68 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5, 10.7, and 9.5 times [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with the Morocco project starting to contribute incrementally from the end of September [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.29, 2.59, and 2.89 respectively, up from previous estimates of 2.11, 2.44, and 2.81 [7]. - The target price remains at 34.24, based on a PE ratio of 14.95 for 2024 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit of 1.726 billion, up 73.72% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 2.23 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.82% [7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 648 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.09% [7]. Production and Market Demand - The company reported a total tire production of 2.424 million units for the first three quarters of 2024, with year-on-year increases of 14.05% for total tires, 13.73% for semi-steel tires, and 26.10% for all-steel tires [7]. - The company continues to see strong demand in the European and American tire markets, with ongoing expansion into high-growth domestic markets [7]. Cost and Pricing Trends - The report notes limited impact from cost fluctuations, despite significant increases in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors [7]. - As of October 20, 2024, the average price of natural rubber was 17,400 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 2.35% and a yearly increase of 28.89% [7]. Strategic Developments - The Morocco project is accelerating, with the factory officially starting production on September 30, 2024, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge [7]. - The company has positioned itself as a high-end supplier for major automotive brands, including Volkswagen and Audi [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.50 CNY, compared to the current price of 25.38 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in production and sales, achieving a record quarterly profit. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company generated revenue of 6.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.726 billion CNY, up 73.72% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has successfully mitigated external adverse conditions, with gross margin and net profit margin improving significantly. The gross margin for Q3 was 39.52%, reflecting a 4.25 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [3]. - The company's global expansion continues to progress, with the first batch of tire products from its Morocco factory launched on September 30, 2024. This factory is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the mid-to-high-end market [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company produced 24.243 million tires, a 14.1% increase year-on-year, with sales reaching 23.358 million tires, up 7.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 7.842 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.201 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1.369 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.308 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 68.6% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 38.09 [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 2.23 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 10.4% for the first three quarters, and a net profit of RMB 648 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 73.7% [1][4]. - The official launch of the Morocco factory on September 30, 2024, is expected to enhance the company's overseas competitiveness and contribute to steady revenue growth [3][4]. - The company has a strong order backlog for its high-quality semi-steel tires in the European and American markets, with total tire sales reaching 23.36 million units in the first three quarters, a year-over-year increase of 8% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was RMB 2.23 billion, up 1.1% quarter-over-quarter and 11.8% year-over-year, while net profit reached RMB 648 million, up 67.5% quarter-over-quarter and 13.0% year-over-year [1]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was RMB 6.34 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.73 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][4]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The Morocco factory is projected to release 6-8 million units in 2025 and reach full capacity of 12 million units by 2026, with pre-orders exceeding planned production for next year [3][4]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is expected to significantly enhance its competitive position in international markets [3]. Market Demand and Sales - The company continues to experience robust demand for its semi-steel tires, with Q3 sales of 8.26 million units, a 10% increase from Q2 [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.4%, with Q3 gross margin at 39.5%, reflecting improved profitability [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q3 2024, with significant contributions from the Morocco project entering the realization phase [11] - The company reported a revenue of 6.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.73 billion yuan, up 73.7% year-on-year [11] - The demand for overseas semi-steel tires continues to rise, leading to high growth in performance [11] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% [11] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 648 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.0% [11] - The company produced 23.56 million semi-steel tires from January to September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, with sales of 22.68 million semi-steel tires, up 7.3% year-on-year [11] Project Developments - The Morocco factory has commenced production, with the first tire produced on September 30, 2024, and is expected to significantly enhance performance [11] - The Morocco project is projected to release a production capacity of 6-8 million tires by 2025 and reach full capacity of 12 million tires by 2026 [11] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 9.8 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 13.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 24%, 21%, and 17% [11] - The projected net profits for the same years are 2.2 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 3.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of 64%, 23%, and 24% respectively [11] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7, 9.5, and 7.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11]

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 森麒麟 (002984.SZ) 事件 2024 年 10 月 18 日公司发布了三季度报告，2024 年前三季度实现 营业总收入 63.4 亿元，同比增加 10.4%；归母净利润 17.3 亿元， 同比增长 73.7%；其中 3 季度单季度实现营业总收入 22.3 亿元， 同比增长 1.1%，环比增长 11.8%，归母净利润 6.48 亿元，同比增 长 67.5%，环比增长 13%。 经营分析 公司轮胎产销量持续向好，盈利能力继续提升。公司前三季度轮 胎产量 2424 万条，同比增长 14%；其中半钢胎产量 2356 万条，同 比增长 14%；全钢胎产量 68.5 万条，同比增长 26%；轮胎销售 2336 万条，同比增长 8%；其中半钢胎销量 2268 万条，同比增长 7%；全 钢胎销量 68 万条，同比增长 30%。3 季度单季度完成轮胎产量 816 万条，环比增长 1.8%，其中半钢胎产量 796 万条，环比增长 1.4%， 全钢胎产量 19 万条，环比增长 24.9%；完成轮胎销售 826 万条， 环比增长 10.3%，其中半钢胎销量 807 万条，环比增长 10.1% ...