作者：周源/华尔街见闻 美国总统特朗普于4月2日宣布即将推出"对等关税"，此事重创A股"果链"：截至4月3日收盘，立讯精密、歌尔股份、蓝思科技跌停，博众精工下跌8.96%， 铂力特下挫4.94%。 4月3日，蓝思科技仍在强调其为苹果公司供应折叠机屏幕材料（外观件和结构件）已有技术和产品准备："目前正积极配合客户进行折叠屏验证，整体进度 顺利，已为新机型量产做好准备"。 如果苹果公司没能取得在特朗普第一次任职美国总统期间的关税豁免，那么A股"果链"公司的估值预期很可能发生改变。 蓝思科技在3月28日发布的2024年报显示，这家公司在2024年，有近一半的营收得自苹果公司。 3月28日，蓝思科技发布的2024年年报显示，来自苹果公司的销售额占整体营收的比例高达49.45%。 虽然这一比例已同比大幅下降8.38个百分点，但仍远超其第二和第三大客户的营收占比总和26.51%（23.36%+3.15%），并高于2016-2019年的历年占比。 蓝思科技从2015年上市，至2020年当年，苹果对蓝思科技的营收贡献度超过50%。自2021年开始，苹果公司的贡献销售额持续超过300亿元。2022年，苹果 销售额达到前所未有的 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Volume Timing Signal - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume data to generate timing signals for broad-based indices. - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates the volume timing signals for various broad-based indices and assigns a cautious view if the signals indicate a potential downturn. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious outlook for all major broad-based indices as of April 3, 2025[23][24]. Model 2: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Name**: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the proportion of stocks with positive returns within an index to gauge market sentiment. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specified period. - Apply smoothing with two different window periods to capture the trend. - Generate signals based on the relationship between the short-term and long-term smoothed lines. - Formula: $$ \text{Proportion of Rising Stocks in CSI 300} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Positive Returns in N Days}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks in CSI 300}} $$ - When the short-term smoothed line is above the long-term smoothed line, it indicates a bullish market sentiment[24][25][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during prolonged market exuberance. It also has limitations in predicting downturns[25]. Model 3: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the eight moving average system to determine the trend state of the CSI 300 index. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233. - Assign values based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Generate signals based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds. - Formula: $$ \text{Number of Moving Averages Exceeded} = \sum_{i=1}^{8} \mathbb{1}(\text{Price} > \text{MA}_i) $$ - If the number exceeds 5, it indicates a bullish sentiment[32][33]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the CSI 300 index is currently in a non-optimistic sentiment zone[35]. Model Backtesting Results 1. **Volume Timing Signal**: All broad-based indices have a cautious view as of April 3, 2025[24]. 2. **Momentum Sentiment Indicator**: The proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index is around 61%[25]. 3. **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: The CSI 300 index is in a non-optimistic sentiment zone[35]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Name**: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Compare the recent values with historical averages to determine the alpha environment. - Formula: $$ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $$ - Where \( R_i \) is the return of stock \( i \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return[41]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent cross-sectional volatility indicates a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, while the CSI 1000 index shows a deteriorating alpha environment[40]. Factor 2: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Name**: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the volatility of index constituents over time to gauge the alpha environment. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of the constituents of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. - Compare the recent values with historical averages to determine the alpha environment. - Formula: $$ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $$ - Where \( R_t \) is the return at time \( t \) and \( \bar{R} \) is the average return[43]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent time-series volatility indicates a better short-term alpha environment for the CSI 300 index, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices show a mixed alpha environment[42]. Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Cross-sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Recent quarterly average 1.83%, 51.24% of the two-year range[41]. - CSI 500: Recent quarterly average 2.10%, 47.62% of the two-year range[41]. - CSI 1000: Recent quarterly average 2.48%, 51.79% of the two-year range[41]. 2. **Time-series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Recent quarterly average 0.57%, 49.38% of the two-year range[43]. - CSI 500: Recent quarterly average 0.43%, 40.48% of the two-year range[43]. - CSI 1000: Recent quarterly average 0.26%, 50.20% of the two-year range[43].

证券研究报告 电子｜ 消费电子 产业链垂直整合初见成效，业绩稳健增长 2024 年年报点评 公司点评 蓝思科技(300433.SZ) | 预测指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(亿元) | 544.91 | 698.97 | 901.29 | 1,105.66 | 1,276.66 | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 30.21 | 36.24 | 50.69 | 64.51 | 73.71 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.61 | 0.73 | 1.02 | 1.29 | 1.48 | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.30 | 9.76 | 10.48 | 11.41 | 12.49 | | P/E | 41.69 | 34.76 | 24.85 | 19.53 | 17.09 | | P/B | 2.72 | 2.59 | 2.41 | 2.22 | 2.02 | 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 投资要点： | | | | 2025 年 04 月 02 日 | | ...

Group 1 - The Tonghuashun Fruit Index concept fell by 6.26%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with stocks like Dongshan Precision, GoerTek, and Pengding Holdings hitting the daily limit down [1][2] - Major outflows of capital from the Tonghuashun Fruit Index concept amounted to 5.13 billion yuan, with 18 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 11 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Luxshare Precision, with a net outflow of 1.11 billion yuan, followed by GoerTek, Changying Precision, and Dongshan Precision with net outflows of 1.05 billion yuan, 494 million yuan, and 460 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in the concept sector included the China-Korea Free Trade Zone, which rose by 5.66%, while the AI PC concept fell by 3.53% [2] - Among the stocks with significant capital inflows, Zhongshi Technology and Lante Optics saw net inflows of 51.18 million yuan and 22.30 million yuan respectively [2] - The performance of the A50 ETF, which tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, showed a decline of 2.15% over the past five days, with a net outflow of 4.36 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has significantly impacted the U.S. technology sector, particularly affecting Apple and its supply chain companies, leading to substantial stock declines across the board [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - U.S. tech stocks experienced a pre-market decline, with Apple falling over 6%, AMD over 5%, and other major companies like Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla dropping more than 4% [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, Apple-related stocks such as GoerTek, East Japan Group, and AAC Technologies saw declines exceeding 10%, while BYD Electronics dropped over 8% [1]. - In the A-share market, Lixun Precision fell to its daily limit, with a market cap exceeding 250 billion yuan, and other Apple-related stocks like GoerTek and East Mountain Precision also hit their daily limits [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Lixun Precision has been deeply integrated with Apple since 2011, with Apple accounting for over 75% of its revenue in 2023, amounting to approximately 174.5 billion yuan [3]. - GoerTek entered Apple's supply chain in 2010, providing audio products, and by 2019, it captured 30% of the AirPods manufacturing share. However, its revenue from Apple has also posed risks, with Apple contributing 42.49% to its total revenue in 2021 [4]. - Lens Technology became a core supplier for Apple's glass covers in 2006, with revenue growing from 6 billion yuan in 2011 to 69.8 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong reliance on Apple [5]. - Lens Technology's financials show that from 2022 to 2024, sales to its largest customer (likely Apple) accounted for 71.0%, 57.8%, and 49.5% of total revenue, respectively, highlighting continued dependence on Apple [6].

| | 2022年 | | 2023年 | | 2024年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 人民幣元 | ﺑﮭﯽ | 人民幣元 | 8 | 人民幣元 | ﺑﮭ | | | | | (会額千元,除比例外) | | | | | 收入 | | | | | | | | 與客戶的合同 46,603,225 | | 99.8% | 54,346,061 | 99.8% | 69.756.758 | 99.8% | | 租賃 | 95,321 | 0.2% | 126,673 | 0.2% | 140.018 | 0.2% | | 總收入 . | 46.698.546 | 100.0% | 54,490,734 100.0 % | | 69.896.776 | 100.0 % | | 销售成本 (38.151.630) | | | (81.7%) (45.998,870) | | (84.4%) (59.713.283) (85.4%) | | | 毛利 | 8,546,916 | 18.3 % | 8,491,864 | 15.6% | 10,183 ...

来源|贝多财经 又一A股上市公司报考香港上市。 3月31日，蓝思科技股份有限公司（下称"蓝思科技"，SZ:300433）递交招股书，正式报考港交所主板上市。据贝多财经了解，蓝思科技于2015年3月18日在 深圳证券交易所上市，至今已有10年。 在A股上市首日，蓝思科技的开盘价为每股27.59元，较IPO发行价22.99元/股高出20.01%。最终，该公司的股价收于每股33.11元，涨幅为44.02%。按收盘价 计算，蓝思科技的市值约为223亿元。 | 年度／期間經調整利潤／(虧損) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (非國際財務報告準則計量) | 2,519,821 | 3,096,087 | 3,838,230 | | 經 調 整 淨 利 率 ( 非 國 際 財 務 報 告 準 則 | | | | | 計量） .. | 5.4 % | 5.7 % | 5.5 % | 按非国际财务报告准则计量，蓝思科技2022年、2023年和2024年的经调整净利润分别为25.20亿元、30.96亿元和38.38亿元，经调整净利率分别为5.4%、5.7% 和5.5%，盈利能力稳健。 按业 ...

Group 1: Baili Tianheng - In 2024, Baili Tianheng achieved operating revenue of 582.27 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 936.31%, and net profit of 370.75 million yuan, turning a profit [1] - The company received an $800 million upfront payment from BMS as part of its innovative oncology drug combination [1] - Multiple clinical trials for BL-B01D1 are ongoing in China and the U.S., including several Phase III trials [1] - The company plans to increase R&D investment to 1.443 billion yuan in 2024 and continue to expand in 2025 [1] Group 2: Teabo Bio - Teabo Bio's application for the marketing authorization of Pegbivac is currently under technical review after being accepted in March 2024 [2] - The company is also advancing the registration of long-acting growth hormone and SKG0201, with applications accepted in January 2024 [2] - Teabo Bio emphasizes the strategic significance of acquiring Jiutian Bio and plans to increase R&D investment focusing on breakthrough technology platforms [2] Group 3: Hongyuan Electronics - In 2024, Hongyuan Electronics experienced an 8.57 percentage point decline in gross margin due to falling prices of high-reliability ceramic capacitors and an increase in low-margin product sales [3] - The company reported a 56.11% revenue growth in microcontrollers and integrated circuit products [3] - Major clients account for 71.09% of sales revenue, primarily from China Electronics Technology Group [3] Group 4: Lens Technology - Lens Technology is rapidly developing in automotive, smart terminal, and humanoid robot sectors, collaborating with over 30 smart car brands [4] - The company expects significant growth in its smart retail terminal business and aims to become a core manufacturing platform for embodied intelligent hardware [4] - Lens Technology has made progress in developing ultra-thin laminated glass for automotive applications, with expectations to introduce it to leading domestic new energy vehicle brands this year [4]

根据市场公开信息及4月1日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募汐泰投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 上海汐泰投资管理有限公司（汐泰投资）是一家中国市场上新兴的私募基金管理人，成立于2014年7月9 日，注册资金为人民币1000万元。专注于2015年3月登记备案成为私募基金管理人：P1009607；2017年 10月成为中国证券投资基金业协会观察会员。汐泰投资专注于股票二级市场投资管理，为不同风险偏好 的投资者提供定制化的产品服务，通过将风险收益比维持在较高的水平，以期为客户带来可观的回报。 汐泰研究团队由一批高素质的员工组成，均毕业于国内外名校，80%研究生学历。核心投资人员来自公 募基金背景，具有长时间的组合投资管理经验，面对各种环境的市场，具备灵活应对的能力和经验。实 践证明，这种能力和经验是经得起穿越牛熊市的考验。同时，团队具有管理大规模资产的历史和能力。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由智能算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 1）蓝思科技 （上海汐泰投资管理有限公司参与公司电话会议&分析师会议） 调研纪要：蓝思科技在车载业务、智 ...

证券代码：300433 证券简称：蓝思科技 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-004 投资者关系活 动类别 □特定对象调研 ☑分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 ☑其他：电话会议 接待对象 共计 240 人次，具体名单见附件 时间 2025 年 3 月 30 日 20:00-21:00 地点 电话会议 上市公司接待 人员姓名 副总经理兼董事会秘书：江南 副总经理兼财务总监：刘曙光 投资者关系活 动主要内容介 绍 一、2024 年经营情况说明 2024 年，公司的产业链垂直整合战略开始发挥成效，组装业 务实现同比快速增长，导入了更多自有上游外观件、结构件及功能 模组，各条业务线全面增长。全年实现营业收入 698.97 亿元，同 比增长 28.27%；归母净利润 36.24 亿元，同比增长 19.94%；扣非 归母净利润为 32.86 亿元，同比大幅增长 46.31%，内生增长动能 强劲。经营性现金流净额达 108.89 亿元，同比增长 17.08%；负债 率 39.71%，继续保持稳健。 分板块看，智能手机与电脑类业务贡献收入 577.54 亿元，同 比增长 28.6 ...