Core Viewpoint - The AI industry chain is experiencing a surge in investment sentiment, particularly in optical module stocks, leading to significant gains in related companies and ETFs [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Optical module stocks, particularly leading companies like LianTe Technology and XinYiSheng, saw substantial price increases, with LianTe Technology hitting a 20% limit up and XinYiSheng rising over 9% to a new closing high [1][2][7]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) also performed well, rising 5% with a trading volume of 779 million yuan and a net subscription of 162 million units in a single day [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Drivers - The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to grow significantly, driven by the needs of high-performance GPUs from companies like Moer Thread and Muxi Co., which are essential for AI training and inference scenarios [4][9]. - LightCounting predicts that the global optical module market could exceed $37 billion by 2029, with 800G module shipments expected to reach 18-19 million units by 2025, doubling year-on-year [4][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The optical module and related supply chain are anticipated to enter a new growth phase, with significant infrastructure investments expected to continue, particularly in North America [10]. - The ChiNext AI ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, focusing on leading optical module companies, with over 70% of its portfolio allocated to computing power and over 20% to AI applications [10].

证券代码：300620 证券简称：光库科技 公告编号：2025-092 珠海光库科技股份有限公司 特此公告。 珠海光库科技股份有限公司 董事会 2025年12月17日 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 珠海光库科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）拟通过发行股份、可转换公 司债券及支付现金的方式购买苏州安捷讯光电科技股份有限公司 99.97%股份，并拟 向不超过 35 名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金（以下简称"本次交易"）。 公司于 2025 年 12 月 16 日收到深圳证券交易所（以下简称"深交所"）出具的 《关于受理珠海光库科技股份有限公司发行股份、可转换为股票的公司债券购买资 产并募集配套资金申请文件的通知》（深证上审〔2025〕256 号）。深交所根据相关 规定对公司报送的本次交易申请文件进行了核对，认为申请文件齐备，决定予以受 理。 本次交易尚需通过深交所审核并取得中国证券监督管理委员会同意注册的批复， 最终能否通过审核、取得注册，以及最终通过审核、取得注册的时间仍存在不确定 性。公司将根据相关事项的进展情况，严格按照相关法律法规的规 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1% on December 17. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.04 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 3,724 stocks declined, while 1,578 stocks increased [1][2]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the market gains, with Tianhua New Energy (300390) rising over 13%, Jinyuan Co. (000546) achieving two consecutive limit-ups in four days, and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong-listed Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) both increased by over 5% [3][4]. Lithium Market Insights - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, reaching a new high since May 2024. Following the shutdown of mining operations by CATL (300750), the "Lithium Capital of Asia," Yichun, plans to cancel 27 mining rights. Analysts noted that lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 70% from their low point earlier in the year, with market expectations for lithium demand significantly improving following the release of November battery sales data [3][4]. Rare Metals and Other Sectors - The optical module sector saw a significant rebound, with major players like Guangku Technology (300620) leading with over a 5% increase. Rare metal stocks also strengthened, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) nearing a limit-up and reaching a historical high. Tungsten powder prices increased by 10,000 yuan per ton, now priced at 1 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 216.5% rise since the beginning of the year [5]. New Stock Performance - Muxi Co., known as the "second domestic GPU stock" and the "second most expensive new stock of the year," saw its shares soar over 700%, with a market capitalization nearing 335 billion yuan, surpassing Moer Thread. The stock's price reached 719.8 yuan, with potential profits exceeding 300,000 yuan per share [7]. Precious Metals Update - Silver prices reached a new historical high, with spot silver rising over 3% to 65.86 USD per ounce. The main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by over 4%. Gold also saw a sharp increase, touching 4,320 USD, with the World Gold Council projecting an average annual return of over 5% for gold from 2025 to 2040 [7][8].

华泰证券认为海外CSP在加码AI算力投资的背景下，2026年400G、800G、1.6T等高速光模块需求预计仍将进一步显著扩张，有望带给新晋供 应商导入窗口期。我们建议关注在交付能力、技术实力、海外工厂产能等方面具备优势的新晋厂商（联特科技等），未来有望获得导入北美云 厂商供应链的机遇。 把握以光模块为核心的算力机会，建议重点关注全市场首只创业板人工智能ETF（159363）及场外联接（A类023407、C类023408），标的指 数重点布局光模块龙头"易中天"，光模块含量最新超56%。从赛道分布看，逾七成仓位布局算力，超两成仓位布局AI应用，能够高效捕捉AI 主题行情。（截至2025.11.30） 同类对比看，截至12月8日，创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）最新规模超33亿元，近1个月日均成交额超6亿元，在跟踪创业板人工智能指 数的7只ETF中排行第一！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等。注："全市场首只"是指首只跟踪创业板人工智能指数的ETF。 风险提示：创业板人工智能ETF华宝被动跟踪创业板人工智能指数，该指数基日为2018.12.28，发布日期为2024.7.11。创业板人工智能指数 2020-2024 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a rebound in optical module CPO and related computing hardware, with significant gains in stocks like Guangku Technology and others, indicating a positive market sentiment in the sector [1][5] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) saw a rapid increase of 2% in early trading, with a real-time transaction amount exceeding 1 billion CNY and a net subscription of 28 million units, reflecting strong investor interest [1][5] - TrendForce forecasts that the global demand for optical transceiver modules exceeding 800G will reach 24 million units by 2025 and nearly 63 million units by 2026, representing a growth of 260% [1][6][7] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggests that Chinese optical module companies may maintain a competitive edge by 2026, particularly in the North American market, as domestic manufacturers have gradually integrated into the supply chains of leading global cloud providers [3][7] - The demand for high-speed optical modules (400G, 800G, 1.6T) is expected to expand significantly, providing new opportunities for emerging suppliers in the context of increased AI computing investments [3][7] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) is noted as the first in the market tracking the AI index, with over 56% of its holdings in optical modules, and it has a recent scale exceeding 3.3 billion CNY, ranking first among similar ETFs [3][7]

Market Overview - As of December 15, the optical fiber concept sector declined by 2.22%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with major stocks like Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable falling to their daily limit [1] - The sector saw a net outflow of 5.038 billion yuan from main funds, with 57 stocks experiencing outflows, and 18 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] Key Stocks Performance - Major decliners in the optical fiber sector included ZTE Corporation, which saw a net outflow of 601.61 million yuan, and other significant losers such as Changxin Bochuang and Yongding Co., with outflows of 480.78 million yuan and 466.66 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, stocks like Zhongtian Technology, AVIC Optoelectronics, and Huamai Technology experienced net inflows of 109.12 million yuan, 69.52 million yuan, and 56.86 million yuan respectively [2][4] Notable Gainers - Among the few gainers in the optical fiber sector, Falunsheng, Shaanxi Huada, and Huamai Technology recorded increases of 10.05%, 6.88%, and 6.00% respectively [1][4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices that are leading the market, providing insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, avoiding extreme price jumps. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, price stability, and trend continuation to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance[26][28]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following steps: 1. **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months. 2. **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market in terms of 250-day price performance. 3. **Price Stability**: Stocks are scored based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price path. - **Momentum Continuity**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days. 4. **Trend Continuation**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past five days is calculated, and the top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria[26][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes stable momentum and avoids stocks with erratic price movements, making it suitable for identifying consistent performers[26][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's or index's price compared to its 250-day high, serving as a momentum indicator[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying leading stocks and indices, providing a clear signal of market momentum[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with smoother price paths[26]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period. - Higher scores indicate smoother price paths, which are preferred for stable momentum strategies[26]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor helps avoid stocks with erratic price movements, improving the reliability of momentum-based strategies[26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，共 746 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、机械、电子行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、纺 织服装、农林牧渔行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股 票数量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证 2000、中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 指数中创新高个股数量占指数成份股个数比例分别 为：14.45%、13.10%、10.20%、12.33%、10.00%、0.00%。 平稳创新高股票跟踪：我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、 股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出 了包含中际旭创、光库科技、源杰科技等 44 只平稳创新高的股票。按照板 块来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical communication industry is experiencing a surge in capital interest, driven by the demand for AI computing power, with companies like Guangku Technology planning significant financing and high-premium acquisitions to expand their market position [2][3]. Financing and Acquisition - Guangku Technology's recent shareholder meeting approved a financing plan to raise approximately 19.5 billion for acquiring 99.97% of Suzhou Anjie Xun Optoelectronics, with 16.4 billion allocated for the acquisition and the remainder for working capital and debt repayment [3][4]. - The acquisition of Anjie Xun is characterized by a high premium, with an assessed value of 16.5 billion against a book value of 2.26 billion, resulting in a valuation increase of 630.26% [4]. Financial Health and Risks - Despite previous fundraising efforts, Guangku Technology's debt levels and debt ratios are projected to rise significantly after 2024, raising concerns about financial sustainability [9][10]. - The company has a history of high-premium acquisitions, with a previous acquisition of 52% of Bai'an Industrial at a premium rate of 1192.56% [4][5]. - The goodwill on Guangku Technology's balance sheet is expected to increase significantly, from 1.1 billion at the end of 2023 to potentially over 14 billion post-acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on major clients [8]. Industry Context - The optical communication sector is poised for growth, with the CPO market expected to reach 8.1 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 137% [13]. - Despite the industry's growth, Guangku Technology's previous fundraising projects have faced delays, with key projects now expected to be completed in 2026, raising questions about the effectiveness of its capital allocation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The capital heat in the optical communication industry is shifting from stock market exuberance to private placements and mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Guangku Technology planning significant financing for high-premium asset acquisitions amid rising AI computing demands [2][3][25]. Financing and Acquisition Details - Guangku Technology's recent shareholder meeting approved a financing plan to raise approximately 19.5 billion yuan through share issuance and convertible bonds, primarily to acquire 99.97% of Suzhou Anjie Xun Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. [3][17] - The financing includes 6.56 billion yuan from share issuance, 4.92 billion yuan from convertible bonds, and 8 billion yuan in supporting funds, with 16.4 billion yuan allocated for the acquisition and 3.08 billion yuan for working capital and debt repayment [3][17]. Valuation and Premium Concerns - Anjie Xun's book value is reported at 226 million yuan, with an assessed value of 1.65 billion yuan, resulting in a valuation increase of 630.26% [4][17]. - This acquisition is not Guangku Technology's first high-premium purchase; a previous acquisition in January 2024 had a premium rate of 1192.56% [4][17]. Financial Health and Debt Issues - Despite multiple rounds of financing since 2020, Guangku Technology's interest-bearing debt and debt ratio are expected to rise significantly after 2024 [9][22]. - The company has faced delays in completing its fundraising projects, with all previous projects postponed, raising concerns about its financial management and operational efficiency [9][25]. Market Context and Future Outlook - The optical communication industry is experiencing growth driven by increasing AI data center demands and network bandwidth upgrades, with the CPO market projected to reach 8.1 billion USD by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 137% [25]. - The ongoing capital operations in the industry raise questions about whether they represent a strategic move to secure technological advantages or a potential overcapacity situation [25].