Group 1 - Allianz SE reduced its stake in Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) by 772,600 shares at an average price of HKD 22.4236 per share, totaling approximately HKD 17.3245 million [1] - After the reduction, Allianz SE's latest holding is 15.9 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.77% [1]

Group 1 - Allianz SE reduced its stake in Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748) by 772,600 shares at an average price of HKD 22.4236 per share, totaling approximately HKD 17.3245 million [1] - After the reduction, Allianz SE's latest holding is 15.9 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.77% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ganzhou is focusing on industrial development as a key task for high-quality growth, leveraging its historical significance and resources to build a modern industrial system [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Development Strategy - Ganzhou aims to enhance its industrial base, with industrial contribution to GDP reaching 49.3%, and has established four trillion-yuan industrial clusters in non-ferrous metals, new materials, electronic information, and modern home furnishings [2]. - The city is committed to transforming traditional industries and developing strategic emerging industries, with a goal of achieving an annual growth rate of approximately 10% in industrial revenue [3][6]. Group 2: Resource Utilization and Innovation - Ganzhou is enhancing the functionality of strategic resources like rare earths and tungsten, aiming to create a globally influential rare earth and rare metal industry cluster [5]. - The city is focusing on technological innovation, establishing high-level innovation platforms, and supporting the development of new drugs and advanced materials [12][13]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Sustainability - The city has implemented policies to support digital transformation in manufacturing, with significant investments leading to improvements in productivity and reductions in energy consumption [8]. - Ganzhou is promoting green industrial practices, with multiple national and provincial-level green industrial parks and factories established [8]. Group 4: Ecosystem and Policy Support - The local government is enhancing the business environment through targeted policies and financial support, including a 530 billion yuan government industry fund [16][19]. - Reform initiatives in development zones are aimed at improving administrative efficiency and fostering a collaborative ecosystem between government and businesses [18][20].

Summary of China Rare Earths 2026 Outlook Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths - **Key Players**: Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (NRE), China Rare Earth Resources and Technology (CRE), JL Mag Rare-Earth Core Insights - **Supply Discipline**: China's rare earth supply discipline has transitioned to a structural level due to the extension of smelting and separation quotas to imported ores starting in 2025, reducing supply elasticity across the system. SMM anticipates a ~10% year-over-year growth in China's supply for 2026E [2][3] - **Imports**: US-origin rare earth ore imports have dropped to nearly zero since August 2025, following MP Materials' export suspension to China. This supply gap has been compensated by increased imports from Africa, while Myanmar's supply share is expected to decline due to rising tax uncertainty and political risks [3] - **Exports**: SMM forecasts approximately 9% year-over-year growth in exports for 2026E [4] Recycling and Demand - **Recycling**: Recycling has become a significant marginal supplier, with recycled PrNd accounting for ~25% of total PrNd supply in 2025, projected to rise to ~35% in 2026 due to planned capacity additions [4] - **Demand Growth**: SMM expects magnet demand to grow by 15-18% year-over-year in 2026E, driven by the adoption of NEVs (20% production growth), wind power (10% installation growth), air conditioners (11% production growth), and industrial robotics (8-10% growth). Humanoid robots are still in early stages, contributing less than 3% to total demand [5] Pricing Outlook - **Pricing Expectations**: SMM anticipates a slightly tight balance in 2026E, with potential short-term price spikes reaching ~Rmb700k/t. HREE pricing is more influenced by policy than supply dynamics [8] Company Valuations - **Northern Rare Earth (NRE)**: Valued at Rmb72 using a P/B-based methodology, reflecting a 9.5x target 2026E P/B, which is a +2.0 standard deviation premium to its historical average. The valuation considers structural demand growth and tighter resource control [9] - **China Rare Earth (CRE)**: Valued at Rmb61.6 with a 12x target 2026E P/B, set at +1.5 standard deviations above its historical average, reflecting similar structural factors as NRE [11] - **JL Mag Rare-Earth**: Valued at Rmb32.6 for JL Mag-A and HK$25.3 for JL Mag-H based on 2027E earnings, applying lower P/E multiples to account for potential downside risks in the robotics sector [14][16] Risks - **Key Risks for NRE and CRE**: Include demand growth uncertainty in downstream applications, unexpected capacity expansions outside China, trade barriers, price volatility, policy adjustments in China, emergence of alternative materials, and sector consolidation activities [10][12] Conclusion The rare earth sector is poised for growth driven by structural changes in supply discipline, increasing demand from various industries, and a significant role of recycling. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market volatility as they position themselves for the future.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

Group 1 - The stock of Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680.HK) increased by nearly 5%, reaching a price of 23.64 HKD as of the report time [1] - The trading volume for Jinli Permanent Magnet was 335 million HKD [1]

Company Summary - Jinli Permanent Magnet (金力永磁) shares increased by nearly 5%, reaching HKD 23.64 with a trading volume of HKD 335 million [1] - The company announced an earnings upgrade, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 660 million and RMB 760 million for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161% [1] - Jinli's product output and sales have reached historical highs, reinforcing its position as a leader in the global rare earth permanent magnet industry [1] - The company has commenced small-scale deliveries of products in the fields of robotic motor rotors and magnetic materials, as well as low-altitude flying vehicles for the 2025 fiscal year [1] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities recently reported that the strategic importance of global rare earth resources continues to rise, marking the entry of the rare earth industry into a new era of high-quality development [1] - On the supply side, quota controls and regulatory policies are expected to strengthen, leading to a rigid supply logic [1] - On the demand side, emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and the low-altitude economy are anticipated to drive long-term high growth in demand [1] - The firm forecasts that starting in 2026, the global supply-demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, with rare earth prices expected to remain stable or increase, enhancing the profitability of the industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinko Solar (06680) shares rose nearly 5%, reaching HKD 23.64 with a trading volume of HKD 335 million, following the announcement of a profit upgrade for 2025, projecting a net profit of RMB 660 million to RMB 760 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 127% to 161% [1][1][1] Company Summary - Jinko Solar reported record high production and sales volumes, reinforcing its position as a leader in the global rare earth permanent magnet industry [1][1] - The company has commenced small batch deliveries of its robotic motor rotors and magnetic materials, as well as products for the low-altitude aircraft sector for the 2025 fiscal year [1][1] Industry Summary - CITIC Securities highlighted the strategic importance of global rare earth resources, indicating that the rare earth industry is entering a new era of high-quality development [1][1] - On the supply side, quota controls and regulatory policies are expected to strengthen, while on the demand side, emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and the low-altitude economy are anticipated to drive long-term high growth in demand [1][1] - The firm forecasts that starting in 2026, the global supply-demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, with prices expected to stabilize and improve, leading to sustained profitability in the industry chain [1][1]