21世纪经济报道记者 董静怡 上海报道 中国海关总署数据显示，2024年跨境电商进出口总额达2.63万亿元，同比增长10.8%，较2020年增长超1 万亿元。不过，跨境电商上市公司业绩却在经历波动，虽然普遍维持了营收增长的态势，但盈利能力受 到考验。 回顾2024年，多家跨境电商企业出现增收不增利的情况，且在2025年第一季度延续了这一趋势。其中不 乏一些往年业绩较好的企业，如乐歌股份、华凯易佰等。 财报数据显示，一季度乐歌股份营收15.44亿元，同比增长37.69%，净利润为5176.63万元，同比下降 35.17%；华凯易佰一季度营业收入为22.92亿元，同比增长35.08%，净亏损为1509.34万元，同比下降 118.42%。三态股份、星徽股份、塞维时代一季度净利润的下降也超过了40%。 过去一年，跨境电商加速发展，市场参与者增多，国内电商平台拓展海外市场，降低产品出海销售的门 槛，提高商品流通效率。但高速增长背后，中国制造商品在海外平台的竞争日趋白热化，部分品类新进 入卖家通过低价切入市场，导致相关品类陷入低价竞争的循环，品类卖家利润空间受损。 财报数据显示，2024年，有6家企业出现增收不增利的情 ...

关税局势缓和对零售（跨境电商）、家电轻工、纺服板块 的影响解读 20250513 摘要 • 小商品城受益于国际贸易形势缓和及一带一路国家出口机会，跨境支付和 AI 赋能工具助力其把握市场机遇，预计景气度提升和租金持续上调。 • 安克创新美国业务占比高，但品牌力强，可转嫁关税成本。一季度收入增 长 37%，利润增速 60%。储能业务在欧洲高速增长，多元化渠道提高抗 风险能力，预计今年利润增速仍超 20%，估值约 20 倍。 • 关税局势缓和对家电轻工行业整体利好，尤其美国业务占比较高且海外产 能较少的公司受益。推荐标的包括积成电子、海尔智家和新宝股份。 • 某消费电子公司股权解锁条件显示，未来几年利润复合增长率预计为 26%，目前估值较低，关税缓和后市场信心增强，值得关注。 • 海尔智家受益于国内白电市场及美国关税缓和，高端品牌卡萨帝表现突出， 在美国市场占比高，弹性较大，是值得关注的标的。 • 新宝股份作为小家电龙头，美国市场占比高且海外产能较小，关税缓和后 最受益，新总裁上任后费用端节省及业绩端增长前景良好，估值约为十倍 出头。 • 玉通科技主要收入来自消费电子产品包装，关税缓和后股价反弹明显，预 计今年业 ...

关税阶段性缓和，跨境电商观点重申及机会提示 20250512 摘要 • 关税谈判阶段性好转，惩罚性关税比例降至 40%-50%，缓解出口企业停 工风险，线上销售性价比优势依然存在，产品多样性增加提升线下销售普 适性。 • ToC 端跨境电商受关税影响较小，加价率高具备成本转移能力，4 月后普 遍涨价 20%-30%未显著影响需求，美国市场依赖中国跨境电商产品。 • 受益于关税缓和的公司包括：具备涨价能力的头部公司（如安克创新、石 头科技），性价比泛品公司（如华凯 100、赛维时代），以及灵活规避关 税的非上市公司（如小商品城）。 • 安克创新通过海外发货和提价应对关税，品牌力获市场认可，估值有望提 升。小商品城受益于义乌出口景气和 1,039 报关模式，六期市场招商计划 或超预期。 • 跨境电商板块展现韧性，关税下降提升头部公司发货效率，关注具备涨价 传导能力的头部企业和泛品类企业，以及小商品城等灵活企业。 • 市场对非美企业关注度提升，欧洲订单强劲推动业绩修复，小商品城等公 司受益，并展现出虹吸效应，成为市场风险避难所。 当前关税谈判出现阶段性好转，最大的变化是惩罚性关税比例下降至 40%至 50%。这一变 ...

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。基本面和政策面基本明 朗，短期外部因素有所缓解，影响市场的三因素均有明显边际改善，市场不确定性因素下降，风险偏好 有望重回升势。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 消息面来看，据央视新闻，5月10日，国家统计局发布2025年4月份CPI和PPI数据。2025年4月份CPI环 比由降转涨，核心CPI涨幅稳定。4月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨 0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。核心CPI环比由平转涨，上涨0.2%；同比上涨0.5%，涨幅保持 稳定。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月 扩大0.2个百分点。虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性 强，各项宏观政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。 东莞证券表示，短期市场或将继续呈现震荡格局 ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 24/25Q1 换新显效，关注两个方向 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 09 日│中国内地 专题研究 24 年家电换新提振内销，25Q1 板块面临关税挑战 2024 年家电板块（申万）累计上涨约 25.4%，涨幅居行业前列，表现明显 优于上证综指与沪深 300。得益于内需"以旧换新"政策红利以及出口补库， 全年板块收入同比+5.6%，归母净利润+7.1%，盈利能力稳健。25 年 1-4 月 家电换新维持拉动力，但出口面临关税挑战，板块承压回调约 1.6%。展望 25Q2，政策持续发力、内需具备支撑，叠加前期高基数效应减退，预计板 块将呈结构性修复态势，机会主要来自内销需求回暖与出口预期修复两端。 白电：尽显格局优势 空调/冰洗板块 24 年收入分别同比+4%/+7%，换新政策驱动下，头部优势凸 显，龙头企业借助价格策略和结构升级，保障盈利能力提升，归母净利分别 同比+13%/+7%。25Q1 换新拉动力维持（空调/冰洗收入同比+17%+14%）， 且随政策深入、费用优化，归母净利分别同比+33%/+33%。展望 25Q2，内 销基数回落、618 备货启动叠加政策催化，白电仍为板块内最具 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 115 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational performance, achieving a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, which is a 59.6% increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth momentum, particularly in the charging and energy storage segment, which generated 12.67 billion yuan in revenue, a 47.2% increase year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 32.13 billion yuan in 2025, 40.08 billion yuan in 2026, and 47.92 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 30.0%, 24.7%, and 19.6% [4]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.74 billion yuan in 2025, 3.44 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.16 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 29.4%, 25.7%, and 20.9% respectively [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 5.15 yuan in 2025, 6.47 yuan in 2026, and 7.83 yuan in 2027 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The report indicates a PE ratio of 22 for 2025, decreasing to 14 in 2026 and 11 in 2027, while the PB ratio is projected to decline from 5.3 to 3.2 over the same period [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has experienced a significant correction, attributed to tariff concerns, but the report suggests that the underlying business fundamentals remain strong, with multiple quarters of exceeding market expectations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and exceeded profit expectations in its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, indicating robust operational performance and market expansion potential [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% [1][3]. - Q4 2024 revenue reached 8.26 billion yuan, growing 44.4% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 640 million yuan, reflecting a 60.1% increase [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a 36.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, up 59.6% [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from the charging and energy storage segment was 12.67 billion yuan, a 47.2% increase, primarily driven by significant contributions from energy storage business [2]. - The intelligent innovation segment generated 6.34 billion yuan, up 39.5%, with expectations for continued growth in core security products and recovery in floor cleaning machines [2]. - Intelligent audio-visual revenue reached 5.69 billion yuan, a 32.8% increase, supported by new product launches and expansion into Southeast Asia [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased expenses related to market expansion and R&D investments [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was stable, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 43.3% due to increased offline sales and rising shipping costs [3]. Market Outlook and Investment Potential - The company's stock price has seen a significant decline due to tariff concerns, but the fundamentals remain strong with multiple quarters of exceeding expectations [4]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth momentum in 2025, driven by continued demand in energy storage and security sectors, as well as new product introductions [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 115 yuan, reflecting a 22 times PE ratio for 2025, indicating a favorable long-term investment outlook [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Zhiyan Technology Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO, having gained significant traction in the smart home market, particularly with its Govee brand, which has achieved impressive sales figures in the U.S. market [1][5][18]. Company Overview - Shenzhen Zhiyan Technology was established on January 13, 2017, with a registered capital of 38.95 million RMB [2]. - The company is primarily engaged in the research and development of smart home products and aims to become a leading brand in the global smart home sector [12][16]. Financial Performance - Govee, a brand under Zhiyan Technology, has seen annual sales exceed 200 million USD (approximately 1.4 billion RMB) since its entry into the U.S. market in 2018 [5][18]. - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 3 billion RMB, indicating substantial growth from previous years [18][19]. Investment and Shareholding - The company has attracted investments from notable firms such as Hillhouse Capital, IDG Capital, and others, with its valuation reaching approximately 3.18 billion RMB following a 40 million RMB investment from Anker Innovations [9][11]. - The founder, Wu Wenlong, holds a 55.00% stake in the company, while other investors have varying shares, with the largest external shareholder holding 8.80% [11][12]. Market Strategy - Govee has effectively utilized multiple sales channels, including Amazon, eBay, Walmart, and BestBuy, achieving a monthly traffic of 500,000 on its independent site [17]. - The brand has also capitalized on social media platforms like TikTok, generating significant sales, including 1.76 million USD in a recent 30-day period [17]. Product Range - Zhiyan Technology's product offerings include a wide array of smart lighting and small appliances, with Govee focusing on meeting the high demand for ambient lighting in the U.S. market [12][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 115 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational performance, achieving a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, which is a 59.6% increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth momentum, particularly in the charging and energy storage segment, which generated 12.67 billion yuan in revenue, a 47.2% increase year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 24,710 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 41.1% - Net profit: 2,114 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 30.9% - Earnings per share (EPS): 3.98 yuan [4][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 32,128 million yuan - Expected year-on-year growth: 30.0% - Expected net profit: 2,737 million yuan - Expected year-on-year growth: 29.4% - Expected EPS: 5.15 yuan [4][8]. - **Long-term Projections**: - 2026 expected revenue: 40,075 million yuan, with a growth rate of 24.7% - 2027 expected revenue: 47,916 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.6% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has experienced a significant correction, attributed to tariff concerns, but the report suggests that the fundamentals remain strong with multiple quarters of exceeding market expectations [8]. - The report emphasizes that the company has successfully shifted production capacity to Southeast Asia, mitigating potential tariff impacts [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite recent stock price fluctuations, the company's strong financial performance and growth potential present a compelling long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 5.15 yuan and 6.47 yuan respectively, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth [8].

证券研究报告·行业深度 从品类到品质，从品质到品牌 核心观点 2024 年行业基本面继续承压，大多数行业及公司依旧受宏观影响 较大，但是已经涌现出一批逆势突围消费降级的企业。迎接这一 轮新消费浪潮，核心是实现品类到品质再到品牌的升级，酒店餐 饮中实现服务或产品独到特色、化妆品中体现产品矩阵及创新能 力、超市百货调改体现质价比、黄金珠宝抓住工艺与时尚结合等， 都是当下形成品牌的成功路径，预计 2025 年这样的企业能够更 加体现增长潜力和品牌估值。 摘要 2024 年以来，消费复苏仍然存在一定压力，除家电存在明显的海 外扩张逻辑，其他基于国内消费为主的消费板块仍然居后，从性 价比进入质价比，品类到品牌的过程中，品牌属性强的公司有望 持续跑赢。 免税板块：25Q1 离岛免税销售同比逐渐磨底企稳，海南封关政 策推进预计仍利好免税业态，市内免税政策望逐步培育，机场口 岸有所修复，海南地区龙头格局向好。免税业态品类丰富度及渠 道和供应链能力逐步强化，盈利能力望稳中向好。出入境旅游人 次持续恢复，关注销售边际趋势，建议持续关注：中国中免、王 府井。 旅游、博彩：年内旅游需求韧性仍较强，为促内需重要抓手，出 入境恢复弹性大 ...