2025年10月25日，2025外滩年会，外滩圆桌"全球治理变局和全球问题的应对"，Olivier BLANCHARD发言 布兰查德是当代国际宏观经济学领域的领军学者，其撰写的经典教材《宏观经济学》影响了几代经济学人。近年，他关于低利率环境下的财政政策以及后 疫情时代的通胀成因等前沿研究，广受全球学者和政策制定者的重视。作为法国人，布兰查德职业生涯的大部分时间在美国度过，这也使他同时兼具对美 国经济的深刻理解与地道的欧洲视角。 布兰查德指出，目前为止，美国关税政策对全球经济实际造成的混乱没有预想中严重，更多体现为巨大的"噪音"和不确定性。从美国经济来看，特朗普幸 运地赶上了AI投资热潮。AI给美国带来了强劲的生产率增长，虽然尚不明确这源于AI的广泛应用还是仅仅是投资拉动，但经济衰退大概率不会再出现。 预计在AI推动下，未来一段时期美国经济运行仍将保持良好态势。然而，通胀压力不显可能只是暂时现象，随着分销商重构利润空间，通胀压力终会显 现。 在他看来，特朗普政府对规则的无视是一种不明显但更为持久的损害——传统贸易规则不再可靠，这令全球贸易体系陷入困境，并可能进一步导致贸易减 少和长期增长放缓。美国国内政治进程亦 ...

渣打银行金融机构业务全球联席总裁张晓蕾表示："财政部成功发行本次欧元债显示了国际投资者对中 国经济强大韧性和活力的信心，为中资机构的后续发行奠定了坚实的收益率基准。渣打银行作为扎根中 国历史最悠久的国际性银行之一，将一如既往地发挥中国与全球市场'超级连接器'的独特作用，全方位 支持中国金融的持续对外开放和蓬勃发展。" 渣打银行大中华及北亚地区资本市场主管、董事总经理严守敬表示："本次发行开始簿记建档后获得全 球投资者的踊跃认购，吸引了超过1000家机构参与，最终订单规模逾1000亿欧元。值得一提的是，本期 债券获得了多元化的全球投资者青睐，其中相当比例来自各国央行、主权财富基金及公营机构；从投资 者地域分布上看，亚洲以外地区获配超过65%，充分体现出国际投资界对中国的强劲信心。" 中证报中证网讯(记者李静)记者从渣打银行处获悉，11月18日，渣打银行作为联席主承销商及账簿管理 人以及结算交割行，支持财政部在卢森堡成功发行了总值40亿欧元的双期限高级债券。 此次发行的债券包括20亿欧元的4年期高级债券和20亿欧元的7年期高级债券。据悉，国际投资者反响热 烈，最终4年期债券定价为欧元掉期利率中值+5个基点，发行利 ...

Core Insights - The Cameroonian government has requested a sovereign rating in Central African Francs from the Ivorian rating agency Bloomfield Investment Company, aiming to enhance its credibility in the regional debt market and diversify financing channels [1][1][1] Group 1: Government Intentions - The initiative reflects the government's desire to further engage with regional financial markets by improving the local currency rating, which could attract regional investments and strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries [1][1] - The rating is expected to provide a more accurate representation of the country's economic and financial situation, facilitating better understanding of investment risks in Cameroon [1][1] Group 2: Selection of Rating Agency - Bloomfield was chosen due to its methodology being more aligned with regional characteristics and its experience in multiple Franc zone countries, potentially offering more flexibility compared to foreign agencies [1][1][1] Group 3: Financial Context - This move comes at a critical time for public finances, as Cameroon prepares to repay a €750 million bond issued in 2015, which has a 9.50% interest rate and matures on November 19, 2025 [1][1] - After repaying this significant external debt, the country aims to shift its debt strategy towards local currency financing, alleviating pressure on foreign exchange reserves [1][1] - As of June 30, 2025, Cameroon’s domestic debt (excluding unpaid balances and floating debt) stands at 38,144 billion Central African Francs, accounting for 11.6% of GDP, with over half (55%) of this debt composed of government bonds issued in the Central African Central Bank market [1][1]

Core Insights - The era of "free money" in Japan is ending, leading to a surge in overseas borrowing by Japanese companies, reaching a record level of $132 billion in 2025, a 56% increase year-on-year [1] - Japanese companies are increasingly favoring foreign currency bonds over yen bonds, with annual overseas bond issuance expected to surpass yen bonds for the first time in history [1] - The revival of Japanese companies is reshaping global financial markets, with significant increases in spending and acquisitions, making Japan one of the most active players in global transactions this year [1] Group 1: Overseas Borrowing Trends - Japanese companies have raised $132 billion through foreign currency bonds and loans in 2025, marking a 56% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The cost of borrowing in yen has risen to its highest level since the late 2000s, making overseas financing more attractive [4] - Japan has become the largest source of dollar bonds in the Asia-Pacific region, a position previously held by China [4] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The total value of mergers and acquisitions by Japanese companies has increased by 129% in 2025, reaching $262 billion, with significant investments in AI and privatizations [7] - Many of these acquisitions are driven by the need for growth outside Japan due to a declining population [7] - Japanese companies are now leading the issuance of foreign currency junk bonds, with approximately $14 billion issued in 2025 [7] Group 3: Investment Grade Bonds - Over 70% of Japan's overseas bond issuances this year have an investment grade rating of A or higher, improving the average rating of Asian dollar bonds [10] - The issuance of investment-grade bonds is transforming the perception of Asian dollar bonds from emerging market investments to a more stable asset class [10] - NTT Inc. issued $17.7 billion in bonds, the largest global issuance by an Asian company, to fund its AI division's privatization [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Japanese borrowers accounted for approximately 28% of the $386 billion in dollar and euro bonds issued in the Asia-Pacific region this year, a record high [14] - Investors are increasingly favoring Japanese foreign currency bonds over yen bonds due to better performance, with yen corporate bonds down 0.5% this year [14] - The diversity of issuers in Japan is attracting attention from investors in the Asia-Pacific region [14]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the average gold price will exceed $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028, based on expected investor demand and central bank purchases [1] - The analysis highlights that the current market consolidation is a healthy phenomenon, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance with high buyer interest and limited sellers [1] - The report emphasizes that gold remains a strong investment amid concerns over inflation, currency devaluation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Barclays anticipates that the upcoming U.S. CPI data will need to be significantly higher than expected to alter the market's view on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2] - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than previously forecasted due to rising borrowing costs in the dollar financing market [3] - The market is divided on when the Fed will conclude its quantitative tightening, with some institutions predicting an end in October while others expect a later conclusion [3] Group 3: Risk Assets and Inflation - State Street Global Advisors warns that investor optimism towards high-risk assets may be excessive, with expectations of rising inflation impacting the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - Dutch International Group notes that the credit spread for U.S. corporate bonds is tightening, making them less attractive compared to euro-denominated bonds, amid rising risks [5] - Citigroup highlights that the recent rise in oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Russia provides a hedging opportunity for producers, although geopolitical premiums may not last [6] Group 4: Japanese Economic Policy - Morgan Stanley suggests that the market's cooling expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month may be overstated, indicating a potential rebound for the yen [7] - Dutch International Group points out that rising inflation in Japan could pave the way for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December, with consumer price inflation accelerating to 2.9% in September [8] Group 5: Cryptocurrency and AI Transition - Guojin Securities reports that overseas cryptocurrency mining companies are transitioning to AI data centers, leveraging low electricity costs and approved power quotas [8] - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear AI expansion plans and undervalued market positions during this transition [8] Group 6: U.S. Tariff and Inflation Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the ruling on Trump's tariff legality, with potential implications for U.S.-China negotiations [9] - Minsheng Securities warns that rising core inflation in the U.S. could lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with inflation pressures expected to increase in Q4 [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surged from $16 trillion in 2013 to over $32 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2024, indicating unsustainable fiscal policies [2][4] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 130%, which is considered high among developed countries, raising concerns among economists about long-term sustainability [4] - Foreign ownership of U.S. debt has decreased, with China reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008, as geopolitical tensions and currency diversification strategies take precedence [4][6] Group 2 - The overall foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped from a peak of 30% to around 23%, with significant reductions from various foreign investors, including the Cayman Islands and European tax havens [7] - U.S. domestic institutions hold over $20 trillion in debt, but this internal transfer does not alleviate the burden of interest payments, which are projected to reach $230.6 billion in 2024 [7][9] - The U.S. housing market is under pressure, with a total housing market value exceeding $55.1 trillion, but new home sales are declining due to high mortgage rates, which remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels [9][11] Group 3 - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 highlighted vulnerabilities in the banking system, leading to tighter credit conditions and impacting the real estate sector [11][13] - Economic indicators show a mixed picture for the U.S., with a GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, followed by a rebound of 3.8% in Q2, but persistent inflation and high unemployment rates remain concerns [13][15] - The IMF projects global growth at 2.8%, with emerging markets, particularly China, expected to drive a significant portion of this growth, while the U.S. faces challenges from high debt and low growth [15][17] Group 4 - The trend of decoupling from the U.S. dollar is evident, with countries reassessing their investments in U.S. assets, leading to a potential restructuring of global supply chains [17] - The overall investment climate in the U.S. is weakening, with forecasts indicating that the economic recovery may not be sustainable, and inflation pressures continue to pose risks [17]

Group 1 - The euro/dollar exchange rate has shown a slight increase, reaching 1.1654 with a gain of 0.06% as of the latest report [1] - The steepening of the European yield curve is attributed to the Dutch pension reform and trader arbitrage, rather than inflation concerns, presenting an opportunity for euro bulls and bond arbitrage [1] - The volatility of the euro swap curve has increased, particularly in the long end, indicating potential for further fluctuations in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The 10-year and 30-year swap curves in the Netherlands are expected to steepen further as large pension funds prepare for their transition by January 1, 2026, with the current spread reaching a new high since 2021 [2] - The current inflation outlook is dominated by downside risks, making it unlikely for an interest rate hike narrative to emerge in the short term [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the euro against the dollar has resistance at 1.1730 and 1.1789, with support levels at 1.1590 and 1.1528 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market issuers are entering the euro bond market at the fastest pace in over a decade, driven by strong global demand for non-dollar assets and the need for financing diversification [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of July 18, emerging market corporations and governments have issued €89 billion in bonds, marking the highest amount for this period since at least 2014 [4]. - Eastern European countries, particularly Poland and Romania, are leading in euro bond issuance, with Poland and Romania together issuing €21 billion [4]. - The euro bond issuance is expected to remain high relative to dollar bonds, despite its smaller share in the total emerging market bond issuance [1][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly seeking opportunities outside of dollar-denominated credit, with a preference for euro bonds due to more attractive spreads [5][8]. - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that euro bonds have outperformed their dollar counterparts shortly after issuance, indicating strong market absorption [5]. - The overall demand for emerging market bonds remains robust, driven by the yield advantage over other markets [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of euro bond issuance is likely to continue, as investors reassess their strategies in light of potential economic slowdowns in the U.S. and a weakening dollar [5][8]. - Countries like Brazil and Colombia are considering re-entering the euro bond market, reflecting a shift towards euro-denominated financing [8]. - JPMorgan's Weiler emphasized that while the dollar remains the core financing currency for emerging markets, the euro offers significant market depth as an alternative [9].

Group 1 - Citigroup and Wells Fargo have joined the trend of U.S. issuers selling euro-denominated bonds, driven by concerns over losses in U.S. dollars [1] - The issuance of euro bonds reflects a strategic response to currency fluctuations and market conditions [1] - This trend indicates a growing interest among U.S. companies to diversify their funding sources and mitigate currency risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union plans to issue up to €70 billion in euro-denominated bonds in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The issuance of bonds is part of the EU's strategy to finance various projects and initiatives [1] - The planned bond issuance reflects the EU's ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and support economic recovery [1] - This move is expected to have implications for the European bond market and investor sentiment [1]