Market Overview - U.S. equity markets ended the fourth quarter positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising 2.4% and 2.6% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average led with a 3.6% return [2] - The Russell 1000 Growth Index lagged, increasing only 1.1% as investors shifted from high-growth technology stocks to more defensive sectors [2] - The quarter was marked by significant volatility, influenced by a 43-day government shutdown that affected market transparency and risk appetite [2] Economic and Monetary Policy - Approximately 83% of S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises, indicating a broadening economic recovery beyond the "Magnificent Seven" [4] - The Federal Reserve implemented two 25-basis point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end, and concluded its quantitative tightening program [4] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded by approximately $100 billion to $6.6 trillion, reflecting a shift from "abundant" to "ample" bank reserves [4] Sector Performance - Ithaka's portfolio underperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 700 basis points, with stock selection detracting 740 basis points from relative performance [6] - Positive relative returns were generated in the Materials and Processing sector, while Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors were significant sources of underperformance [7] - Weakness in Technology was attributed to fears of AI disintermediating software stocks, while Consumer Discretionary faced pressures from consumer spending concerns [7] Top Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors included Intuitive Surgical (26.6% return), Advanced Micro Devices (32.4%), and Alphabet (28.9%), driven by strong earnings and positive investor sentiment [9][10][12] - Major detractors were ServiceNow (-16.8%), Netflix (-21.8%), and Veeva Systems (-25.1%), with concerns over AI impacts and unexpected financial disclosures affecting stock performance [9][15][16] Investment Strategy and Outlook - Ithaka initiated three new positions and eliminated four during the quarter, with a trailing 12-month turnover of 22.1% [17] - The investment approach focuses on long-term wealth creation through concentrated positions in high-quality companies with strong management and favorable market conditions [4][19] - The narrative around AI is shifting towards tangible productivity gains, suggesting that the economic opportunities from AI will continue to expand [18]

摘要 受检测设备和光刻胶等半导体通用部件短缺以及 DRAM 和 NAND 价格 飙升驱动，CPU 厂商面临产能压力，同时下游企业囤货需求增加，共同 导致 CPU 价格上涨。 受益于 AI 驱动的需求，先进制程半导体器件需求旺盛，各大厂商纷纷提 价。供应链受限和需求增加预计将导致复杂逻辑器件和存储器件在未来 两三年内维持涨价趋势。 全球 CPU 市场尚未达到英特尔和 AMD 的最大产能。尽管 PC 市场需求 下降，但 AI 服务器需求旺盛。厂商谨慎扩产，预计未来两三年供应仍将 紧张，涨价趋势或将持续。 CPU 涨价分为消费级产品和服务器产品两轮。服务器产品调价主要是对 去年下半年供需关系变化和制造成本上涨的补偿，并未带来显著利润增 量，仅部分抵消成本上升。 国际 PC 产业链整体涨价对国内 CPU 行业是利好，国产 CPU 厂商或因此 获得更多机会。海光、龙芯等品牌是否跟随涨价，取决于具体市场情况， 但整体趋势可能推动国内品牌进行相应调整。 Q&A 近期全球 CPU 价格上涨的原因是什么？如何看待后续涨价的延续性？ 全球 CPU 价格上涨主要有两个因素。首先，AI 需求导致 DRAM 和 NAND 产能 被大量 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - AMD's stock outperformed Nvidia's for the first time since 2019, with AMD shares rising by 77% compared to Nvidia's 39% increase last year [1][2] - Over the past five years, Nvidia's stock has soared more than 1,300%, while AMD's stock has increased by only 160% [1] Group 2: Growth Prospects - AMD's growth prospects are viewed positively, with CEO Lisa Su projecting over 35% annual revenue growth in the next three to five years [2] - Major tech companies, including OpenAI and IBM, are utilizing AMD's chips, indicating strong demand and potential for future growth [2][4] Group 3: Financial Metrics - AMD's market capitalization is approximately $380 billion, significantly smaller than Nvidia's $4.5 trillion valuation [6] - AMD's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 37, which is higher than Nvidia's forward P/E of 24, despite AMD's lower earnings [8][9] Group 4: Profitability Comparison - Nvidia generated nearly $100 billion in earnings over the past 12 months, while AMD's net income totaled $3.3 billion during the same period [9] - Nvidia's gross margin stands at 70.05%, compared to AMD's gross margin of 44.33%, highlighting Nvidia's superior profitability [4][7] Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - Nvidia is recognized as the leader in AI chips and is expected to maintain this status as long as AI spending remains strong [12] - There is a belief that AMD could outperform Nvidia in the near term as it scales up its AI chip business, attracting growth investors [13]

Trade Summary - Ark Invest executed significant trades involving Broadcom Inc., WeRide Inc., BYD Co. Ltd., and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. across various Ark ETFs [1] Broadcom Trade - ARK Innovation ETF acquired 32,408 shares of Broadcom, valued at approximately $10.8 million based on a closing price of $332.60 [2] - This acquisition follows a downturn in Broadcom's shares due to China's directive against using foreign cybersecurity software, affecting several U.S. firms including VMware [2] WeRide Trade - ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF added 577,099 shares of WeRide, amounting to about $4.9 million at a closing price of $8.48 [3] - WeRide, a Chinese robotaxi company, has expanded its autonomous fleet to over 1,000 vehicles and operates in cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, aligning with Ark's interest in innovative transportation solutions [3] BYD Trade - ARKQ purchased 205,748 shares of BYD, valued at around $2.53 million at a closing price of $12.31 [4] - BYD recently surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales, selling 2.26 million EVs globally in 2025, but faces challenges related to profitability and international expansion [4] AMD Trade - ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF acquired 3,165 shares of AMD, worth approximately $734,026 at a closing price of $231.92 [5] - AMD is focusing on integrating AI into mainstream PCs and leveraging data center strengths for future growth, with analysts highlighting its efforts to make AI capabilities more accessible [5] Other Key Trades - Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc. saw shares sold by ARKK, ARKX, and ARKQ [7] - Trimble Inc. and Deere & Co. were also involved in trades, with shares bought by ARKX [7]

CPU涨价：推理+ASIC趋势拉动结构需求上升，供给弹性受限 海外高端CPU计划提价10-15% 据KeyBanc，Intel和AMD在2026年的服务器CPU产能已被锁定大部分，计划在一季度提价10%-15%。 需求拉动一：推理规模化 推理阶段需要CPU总管（请求入口与编排、上下文构建、RAG链路、观测与计费）。 推理规模越大，CPU就很容易成为瓶颈。 CPU涨价：推理+ASIC趋势拉动结构需求上升，供给弹性受限 海外高端CPU计划提价10-15% 据KeyBanc，Intel和AMD在2026年的服务器CPU产能已被锁定大部分，计划在一季度提价10%-15%。 需求拉动一：推理规模化 推理阶段需要CPU总管（请求入口与编排、上下文构建、RAG链路、观测与计费）。 推理规模越大，CPU就很容易成为瓶颈。 CPU在"控制面+数据面"的占比变大，尤其影响尾延迟与吞吐稳定性。 需求拉动三：ASIC更"吃"CPU性能 ASIC在算子覆盖、控制流与动态图能力与生态工具链上更依赖主机侧补齐通用性。 供给侧：AI挤占产能 先进制程与先进封装等关键资源扩张节奏慢，AI芯片"利润密度"更高，挤压CPU可得性、拉长交期，从而强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is expected to experience significant growth driven by artificial intelligence, but there are differing opinions on the extent and sustainability of this growth, with some experts predicting a market size exceeding $1 trillion by the end of this year, while others caution against over-optimism due to capacity constraints and economic weaknesses [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The semiconductor market is projected to grow from approximately $650 billion in 2024 to over $1 trillion by the end of the decade, with some forecasts suggesting this milestone could be reached as early as 2028-2029 [2]. - Omdia predicts that the semiconductor market will exceed $1 trillion not in 2030, but this year, driven by strong demand for data center servers and memory-intensive applications [3][5]. - Future Horizons' Malcolm Penn anticipates a growth rate of about 12% for 2026, significantly lower than other predictions that suggest growth rates could reach as high as 40% due to AI chip demand [1][5]. Group 2: AI Impact on Semiconductor Demand - The demand for AI infrastructure is seen as a major driver of a fundamental restructuring in the semiconductor industry, impacting various technology categories [2]. - Strong demand for memory chips and rising prices are expected to lead to a 41.4% year-over-year growth in the computing and data storage sectors by 2026, surpassing $500 billion [3]. - The capital expenditure of the top four hyperscale data center operators is projected to reach approximately $500 billion this year, further propelling the market [3]. Group 3: Industry Concerns and Cautions - Malcolm Penn warns of potential market corrections, suggesting that economic growth could turn negative, with declines ranging from -8% to -30% depending on the speed of the correction [1]. - Concerns about overcapacity in the semiconductor industry are raised, with Penn describing current capital expenditures as potentially indicative of a capacity bubble [6]. - TSMC's CEO expresses caution regarding the impact of tariff policies and rising component prices on the semiconductor market, emphasizing a focus on business fundamentals to maintain competitive advantages [6].

Key Points Hyperscalers are doubling down on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investments. On the surface, this is terrific news for data center and chip stocks. Palihapitiya thinks the hidden winner of AI infrastructure will be a particular raw material. 10 stocks we like better than United States Commodity Index Funds Trust - United States Copper Index Fund › One investor who has burst onto the scene in recent years is Chamath Palihapitiya. The venture capitalist is largely consider ...

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) today announced the appointment of KC McClure to its board of directors. McClure most recently served as a senior advisor to Accenture and was previously Chief Financial Officer of Accenture from 2019 to 2024. Throughout her more than 37-year tenure at Accenture, McClure held multiple finance and accounting leadership roles, including overseeing financial operations and investor relations. “We are delighted to welcome KC to AMD’s Board ...

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Core Viewpoint - AMD has a history of rapid stock rallies, with increases over 50% in short periods, suggesting potential for future growth driven by upcoming catalysts [1] Group 1: Catalysts for Growth - Catalyst 1: AI Accelerator Market Share Shift, with potential acquisition of up to 20% market share by 2027 [4][11] - Catalyst 2: Activating OpenAI Strategic Revenue, with a definitive agreement to utilize AMD GPUs for OpenAI infrastructure [5][11] - Catalyst 3: Broadening Enterprise and Edge AI Presence, including new revenue pathways in AI PCs and Automotive through strategic partnerships [6][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue Growth: 31.8% for the last twelve months (LTM) and a three-year average of 12.9% [12] - Cash Generation: Nearly 17.0% free cash flow margin and 9.4% operating margin LTM [12] - Valuation: AMD stock trades at a P/E multiple of 114.0 [12]