智通财经2月14日讯（编辑 史正丞）北京时间上周五清晨，随着全球电商和云计算龙头亚马逊拍出"2026财年资本支出2000亿美 元"的公告，公司股价直线跳水。直到本周五收盘，亚马逊创出连跌9日的近20年最长连跌纪录，近两周累计跳水超"20cm"。 （来源：TradingView） 根据周六的最新消息，除了AI支出会挤压利润、回购能力外，科技巨头也在面临更深层次的恐惧：在AI时代处于落后的不利地位。 AI巨额投资的"恐惧暗面" 据悉，除了砸下2000亿美元重点扩建人工智能算力基建外，亚马逊眼下也在进行战略调整，原因是担忧其云计算业务在争取AI相关 合同时失去当前的市场地位。 截止发稿，亚马逊AWS依然是全球第一大云服务商，一年能产生1300亿美元营收，贡献集团近60%的净利润。但有分析师指出，随 着AI服务对算力需求的整体拉升，微软云服务将在3年后超越亚马逊。 内部员工透露，AWS目前正面临与"领先AI供应商"达成更多交易的压力。亚马逊曾向Anthropic投资80亿美元，并为其建设数据中 心，但其最初的投资是在谷歌押注该初创公司之后才进行的。 与此同时，作为OpenAI最早的投资者之一，微软成功与ChatGPT ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is currently the largest company by market capitalization, but its future growth may be challenged due to high P/E ratios, competition from customers, and reliance on AI infrastructure spending [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia has experienced rapid growth, particularly in the AI sector, making it a significant player in the market [1]. - The company's current market cap stands at $4.6 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 46, indicating a premium valuation [2][12]. Group 2: Amazon's Strategy - Amazon is one of Nvidia's largest customers, investing heavily in AI-related chips for its AWS business [4]. - The company is diversifying its chip procurement by developing in-house brands, which may reduce its reliance on Nvidia over time [5]. - Amazon's revenue from North American commerce grew 10% year-over-year to $127 billion, while AWS revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $35.6 billion [7]. Group 3: Alphabet's Competitive Edge - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has invested in its own chips, specifically Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are used in its data centers and cloud infrastructure [8]. - Like Amazon, Alphabet remains a customer of Nvidia but is also working to reduce its dependency on third-party chips [9]. - Alphabet's Google Search revenue rose 17%, and Google Cloud revenue increased 48%, benefiting from the AI trend [11].

2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股，市值2.1万亿美元，为连续第9日下跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录。亚马逊股价较近期高点 累计下跌超23%，已进入技术性熊市，成为Mag7(美股七巨头)中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成 员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计，今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发了约1.51万亿美元(折合人民 币约10.4万亿元)。 近期，美股市场轮动的趋势正愈发明显。亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技巨头公布了巨额资本支出计划，加上投资者们对Anthropic新工具的担忧再度 加剧，导致众多人工智能相关的企业股票遭到抛售，资金纷纷涌入其他板块的价值型股票。 美国银行认为，2020年以来，以"七巨头"为代表的科技巨头在美股市场上的领导地位正面临"重大威胁"。随着美国中期选举的临近，投资者应逐步倾向于 投资中小盘股票。 美银首席投资策略师迈克尔.哈特内特(Michae ...

编辑｜江佩霞 记者｜吴斌 见习记者林芊蔚 与此同时，有报道指出，近日，瑞银集团和高盛相继向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交了截 至2025年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告（13F），报告显示， 两家机构对多只美股科技巨头进 行了大手笔减仓。其中，瑞银集团减持了1004.2万股英伟达，减持幅度达11.47%。 2月13日，美国科技巨头亚马逊收盘报198.79美元/股， 市值2.1万亿美元，为 连续第9日下 跌，创下2006年7月以来最长的连跌纪录 。亚马逊股价 较近期高 点累计下跌超23%，已进入 技术性熊市 ，成为Mag7（美股七巨头）中第二家跌入熊市的公司。 微软是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员，股价于1月29日跌入熊市。截至13日收盘，微软股价较近期 高点下跌27.8%。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成员，截至周五收盘，较去年高点累 跌19.6%，距离熊市的20%跌幅门槛仅差0.4%。据券商中国统计， 今年以来，Mag7市值蒸发 了约1.51万亿美元（折合人民币约10.4万亿元）。 展望未来，威尔逊分析称，人工智能赋能板块的基本面利好因素仍在，而且人工智能应用端相 关标的的投资价值仍然被低估了。那些 ...

Core Insights - Retail investors are focusing on five stocks driven by hype, earnings, AI trends, and corporate news flow [1] Group 1: GameStop (GME) - Retail investors are optimistic about GME's prospects compared to Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) [7] - GME's stock had a 52-week range of $19.93 to $35.81, trading around $23 to $25 per share, with a decline of 10.71% over the year and an increase of 2.17% over the last six months [7] - GME shows a weaker long-term price trend but a strong short and medium-term trend, with a strong growth ranking according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [7] Group 2: Amazon.com (AMZN) - Some retail investors believe AMZN has the strongest supply chain network and should not be sold [7] - AMZN's stock had a 52-week range of $161.43 to $258.60, trading around $199 to $201 per share, with a decline of 13.36% over the year and an increase of 11.12% over the last six months [7] - AMZN exhibits a weaker price trend across short, medium, and long terms, but has a solid quality ranking according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [7] Group 3: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) - Retail investors noted that Burry's analysis led to a significant sell-off in PLTR's stock [7] - PLTR's stock had a 52-week range of $66.12 to $207.52, trading around $128 to $131 per share, with a return of 9.55% over the year and a decline of 29.94% over the last six months [7] - PLTR shows a weaker price trend in short, medium, and long terms, with a solid growth score according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [7] Group 4: Tesla (TSLA) - Some retail investors criticized Elon Musk for diversifying into various businesses [7] - TSLA's stock had a 52-week range of $214.25 to $498.82, trading around $415 to $420 per share, with an increase of 17.17% over the year and 22.89% over the last six months [7] - TSLA maintains a stronger long-term price trend but a weaker short and medium-term trend, with a solid quality score according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [7] Group 5: Nvidia (NVDA) - NVDA is preparing for its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report amid strong AI demand and minor headwinds [8] - Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly positive on NVDA, with 94% rating it Buy/Strong Buy, and target prices ranging from $250 to $352 [7] - NVDA's stock had a 52-week range of $86.63 to $212.19, trading around $186 to $190 per share, with a gain of 38.18% over the year and 2.95% over the last six months [7] - NVDA maintains a strong price trend across short, medium, and long terms, with a solid growth ranking according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [8]

Group 1 - Bridgewater's latest 13F report reveals a total market value of $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [3] - The top ten holdings account for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with significant positions in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV), Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont [3][4] - The five largest increases in holdings include SPY, Micron Technology, Oracle, Nvidia, and Newmont Corporation [4][5] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million in Q3 to 3.87 million in Q4, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon holdings to 1.95 million shares [5] - The report indicates a reduction in holdings for companies like Uber, Fiserv, Google, META, and Microsoft [5] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasizes that the main sources of returns in 2025 stem from changes in currency value and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [8] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a notable 39% decline against gold, which emerged as the best-performing asset [8] - The report highlights a significant capital reallocation from the U.S. to international markets, a trend expected to continue [8]

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in technology stocks and gold-related stocks in Q4 2025, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Newmont Corporation [1][2] - The total market value of Bridgewater's holdings reached $27.4 billion in Q4 2025, up from $25.5 billion in Q3 2025 [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 36.35% of the total portfolio, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) being the largest positions [2][3] Group 2 - Bridgewater increased its Nvidia shares from 2.51 million to 3.87 million, a 54% increase, and also raised its Amazon shares to 1.95 million [4] - The largest reductions in holdings were in Uber, Fiserv, Google, Meta, and Microsoft [4] - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation from the U.S. to international markets, with a notable focus on gold as a strong asset class [7][8] Group 3 - Ray Dalio emphasized that the main sources of returns in 2025 were changes in currency values and the underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to non-U.S. stocks and gold [7] - The dollar depreciated against several currencies, with a 39% decline against gold, highlighting gold's status as a strong asset [7] - Current high price-to-earnings ratios and low credit spreads indicate that overall valuations are expensive, with expected long-term stock returns at about 4.7% [8]

Key TakeawaysAmazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy has committed to a record $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, primarily to scale AWS and AI infrastructure.The U.S. and Taiwan have finalized a landmark $250 billion trade agreement that caps tariffs at 15% in exchange for massive domestic semiconductor investments by TSMC (TSM).U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the Transatlantic Alliance at the Munich Security Conference, signaling a shift toward "revitalizing" rather than abandoning Europe ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which fell by 1.4%, marking its largest drop since November of the previous year. This decline is attributed to fears surrounding AI's impact on various sectors, raising concerns that AI may no longer be a growth engine but rather a "valuation crusher" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index experienced a notable increase in abnormal stock fluctuations, with over 40 stocks showing deviations exceeding three standard deviations, indicating a potential collapse of market confidence [3]. - The logistics sector was heavily impacted, with C.H. Robinson experiencing an eight-fold standard deviation drop, leading to a "death spiral" of automated stop-loss orders and panic selling [3]. - Major tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, were significant contributors to the index's decline, with Amazon hitting a nine-day losing streak, marking its longest since 2006 and entering a technical bear market [3][4]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Employment and Market Sentiment - A statement from Microsoft's AI CEO suggested that most white-collar jobs could be fully automated within 18 months, causing immediate market panic and a sell-off of stocks related to potentially disrupted industries [4]. - The market's fear extends to the return on investment for massive capital expenditures by tech giants, with a combined projected spending of $650 billion on AI infrastructure by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, raising concerns about their financial health [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Pricing Power - Chinese AI companies have made significant advancements, launching competitive products that challenge the pricing and performance of existing models, which could reshape global investor expectations [5][6]. - The emergence of low-cost AI solutions, such as MiniMax's M2.5 model, threatens the pricing power of established tech giants, leading to a reevaluation of their market positions and business models [8]. - The article highlights a shift from a positive growth narrative to a negative cycle of demand shrinkage and profit contraction, as AI efficiency gains may lead to reduced overall employment [7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs warns that if the S&P 500 index falls below 6707 points, it could trigger systemic sell-offs amounting to $80 billion, indicating a fragile market environment [8]. - The current market situation serves as a "stress test" for business models in the AI era, determining which companies can adapt and which may struggle to maintain their competitive advantages [8].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's recent stock performance has been underwhelming, with a 8.2% decline over the past year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 16.5% gain, raising questions about its long-term investment potential [2] Group 1: Business Segments and Performance - Amazon operates through three segments: North America, international, and Amazon Web Services (AWS), with the first two contributing 82% of total sales, amounting to $716.9 billion in 2025 [4] - AWS remains the largest profit generator for Amazon, achieving a 14.5% increase in operating income to $45.6 billion [5] - The North America and international segments generated $34.7 billion in operating income, representing 43% of the total [4] Group 2: Competitive Advantage and Market Position - AWS holds a leading market share of 30% as of mid-2025, outperforming Microsoft's Azure at 20% and Alphabet's Google Cloud at 13%, benefiting from the growing demand for data and resources for data centers [8] - The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to further accelerate AWS's growth [8] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Valuation - Following the fourth-quarter earnings release, Amazon's stock price declined due to management's announcement of a significant increase in capital expenditures to $200 billion for the year, up from $131.8 billion in 2025 [9] - Despite the increased spending, management anticipates a substantial return on capital, which is expected to benefit shareholders [10] - Amazon's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28, down from 40 a year ago, making its valuation more attractive compared to the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 30 [11] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The question remains whether investing in Amazon will yield better returns than an index fund replicating the S&P 500, with the potential for greater gains based on Amazon's valuation and growth prospects [12]