该行又认为亚马逊已预备好在未来跑赢，基于电商盈利持续受惠更高效物流网络下的更高销量，以及单 位服务成本下降；广告业务高盈利规模下持续扩张；AWS受惠企业客户需求结构性转变，生成式AI工 作负载加速上线带来长期成长推动力。公司能否建立更稳定及定期的资本反馈机制，成为中长期变量。 格隆汇11月3日｜高盛重申对亚马逊"买入"评级，目标价由275美元上调至290美元。该行预期市场焦点 将可能从亚马逊云服务(AWS)在AI领域的定位，转向未来数季更严格检视消费者环境。该行长期看好亚 马逊，对其长期表现保持建设性观点，认为亚马逊能在多年间实现营收复合增长与营业利润率扩张，同 时持续投资长期增长计划。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced gains on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by over 100 points, driven by strong earnings from major companies [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 2.3% and the Dow increased by 2.5% in October, while the Nasdaq saw a significant jump of 4.7% during the same period [1] Company Performance - Amazon.com Inc. reported a remarkable 10% surge in its stock price after announcing impressive earnings, with AWS revenue increasing by 20% year over year to $33 billion [2] - Apple Inc. shares declined slightly as enthusiasm over iPhone 17 sales was dampened by weaker demand in China [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors within the S&P 500 closed negatively, with consumer staples, materials, and utilities experiencing the largest losses [3] - Conversely, consumer discretionary and energy sectors performed well, closing higher despite the overall market trend [3] Economic Indicators - Baker Hughes reported a decrease in oil rigs, falling by six to a total of 414 this week [2] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Williams Companies Inc., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., and ON Semiconductor Corp. [4] Fear & Greed Index - The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index recorded a reading of 35.4, remaining in the "Fear" zone, slightly down from a previous reading of 35.7 [5]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced gains on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by over 100 points, driven by strong earnings from major companies [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 2.3% and the Dow increased by 2.5% in October, while the Nasdaq saw a significant jump of 4.7% [1] Company Performance - Amazon.com Inc. reported a remarkable 10% surge in its stock price after announcing AWS revenue growth of 20% year over year, reaching $33 billion [2] - Apple Inc. shares declined slightly due to tempered optimism regarding iPhone 17 sales amid weaker demand in China [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors within the S&P 500 closed negatively, with consumer staples, materials, and utilities experiencing the largest losses [3] - Conversely, consumer discretionary and energy sectors performed well, closing higher despite the overall market trend [3] Economic Indicators - Baker Hughes reported a decrease in oil rigs, falling by six to a total of 414 this week [2] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Williams Companies Inc., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., and ON Semiconductor Corp. [4] Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed Index recorded a reading of 35.4, indicating a continued presence in the "Fear" zone, slightly down from 35.7 [5]

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 3 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：李时樟 执业证书：S1030522060001 电话：18065826333 邮箱：lisz@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗晴 执业证书：S1030524110001 电话：13603091122 邮箱：luoqing@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] [Table_BaseData] 1) 周度市场回顾。TMT 板块内一级行业上周（10.27-10.31）涨 跌幅为：计算机（1.82%）、传媒（-0.06%）、电子（-1.65%）、 通信（-3.59%）。板块内涨幅靠前的三级子行业分别为横向通 用软件（10.05%）、营销代理（5.74%）、门户网站（3.68%）， 跌幅靠前的三级子行业分别为通信网络设备及器件（- 6.40%）、数字芯片设计（-4.80%）、游戏Ⅲ（-4.01%）。 2) 海外云厂三季度资本开支继续上行。本周海外主要云厂商公 布三季度业绩，资本开支延续上行趋势，且 2026 年指引积极。 谷歌方面，2025Q3 资本开支 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the cloud computing industry, particularly the earnings season for major players including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Alibaba, and Baidu [1][6][9]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Capex guidance has been consistently increasing, with Microsoft raising its expectations to over USD 30 billion for Q1, up from USD 24 billion. Amazon's Q2 capex was 25% ahead of consensus, and Alphabet raised its FY25 guidance to USD 85 billion from USD 75 billion [2][6]. - There are upside risks for further capex increases due to the demand for computing power [2]. Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) - Alphabet is noted as the only Western cloud service provider to have successfully deployed its latest chips, which has strengthened its partnership with Anthropic. There is potential for further upside from these Ironwood chips [3]. - Commentary is anticipated regarding Microsoft's project Braga/Normandy and Amazon's Trainium3 chips, particularly concerning the supply of Trainium2 [3]. EBIT Margins - Margin outlooks are a key focus, with Oracle's strategy under scrutiny. Alibaba aims to maintain steady cloud operating margins while reinvesting gains into growth and AI deployment. For Western companies, margin accretion is expected, but concerns about price wars persist [4]. Bottlenecks in Supply - Demand for cloud resources continues to exceed supply, with companies indicating they would increase capex if possible. Potential bottlenecks are expected to arise from regulations, power demand, chip efficiency, and transitioning clients from legacy systems [5]. Company-Specific Insights - **Alphabet**: Anticipated to report Q3 results on October 29, with expectations of revenue growth and margin improvements in Google Cloud. The company has seen significant growth in enterprise deals and customer adoption of its Gemini platform [28][30]. - **Amazon**: Reported a 13.3% year-over-year increase in net sales for Q2, driven by North America and International divisions. However, AWS operating income missed consensus expectations. Guidance for Q3 indicates cautious growth expectations [43][44]. - **Alibaba**: Expected to report a 3% year-over-year revenue growth for Q2, with cloud revenue projected to grow 29% year-over-year. The company aims to maintain stable margins while investing in AI and cloud infrastructure [17][19]. - **Oracle**: Focus on margin strategies and potential impacts from increased capex commitments [4][6]. Financial Metrics and Valuations - **Alphabet**: Expected group revenues of USD 101.7 billion and EBIT of USD 33.2 billion for Q3, with a target price of USD 295.00 [31][37]. - **Amazon**: Target price set at USD 260.00, with expectations of strong performance in e-commerce and AWS [45][46]. - **Alibaba**: Target price maintained at USD 205.00, with a focus on cloud growth and margin stability [18][22]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the ongoing growth and investment in the cloud computing sector, with significant focus on capex, ASIC developments, margin strategies, and potential supply bottlenecks. Key players are expected to report strong earnings, although caution remains regarding market competition and regulatory challenges [1][9].

与此同时，微软(MSFT.US)在上周发布的季度财报中提到，受OpenAI亏损影响，公司净利润减少31亿美 元。目前，微软已向这家ChatGPT开发商注资137.5亿美元，并持有其27%的股权。 谷歌与Anthropic的发言人均拒绝置评。 今年9月，Anthropic完成一轮130亿美元融资，公司估值近乎翻倍，达到1830亿美元。根据会计准则， 企业需根据每股市价变动调整投资价值，即便尚未通过该投资直接获利。 这并非谷歌首次因投资估值变动提振利润。今年4月，该公司第一季度业绩就包含对某非上市公司投资 产生的80亿美元未实现收益，据报道称，彼时的投资对象为马斯克旗下的SpaceX。 智通财经APP获悉，谷歌(GOOGL.US)与亚马逊(AMZN.US)因第三季度利润表现优于预期而获得投资者 青睐。其中值得注意的是，这两家公司的业绩增长，均得益于其对热门聊天机器人Claude开发商 Anthropic PBC的投资价值攀升。 谷歌表示，其季度利润包含"107亿美元的股权证券净收益"，部分收益来自一家非上市公司。据知情人 士透露，这家企业正是Anthropic。与此同时，亚马逊第三季度利润激增38%，其中95亿美 ...

内容摘要 ▍▍ 正文 ▍▍ ▍复盘10月走势，受关税政策影响较大 10月1日至今，美国共和、民主两党未能就临时拔款法案达到一致，联邦政府仍在停摆。历史上联邦政府曾停摆数次，市场已具备丰富经验，此次市场预 计联邦政府停摆将对GDP增长产生轻微负面影响，股市对此反应平淡，停摆初期标普500在不断创历史新高。 10月10日，特朗普总统在社交媒体宣布将对中国加征100%关税，引发市场对中美经贸摩擦再次升级的担忧，标普500暴跌2.71%，创对等关税以来最大单 日跌幅。之后数日特朗普总统、万斯副总统及财政部长贝森特相继释放缓和信息，无意与中国脱钩断链，TACO交易再现；中旬大盘在反弹后进入横盘振 荡格局。 10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔在费城国家商业经济协会表示，金融体系流动性状况正逐步趋紧，量化紧缩(QT)计划即将接近尾声。 主要事件：10月美股市场按时间先后顺序主要经历了联邦政府关门、特朗普总统突然在社交媒体宣布对中国加征100%关税、美国两家区域银行披露 信贷风险、中美贸易代表在吉隆坡谈判进展顺利、鲍威尔主席记者会表示12月不确定降息、中美两国元首韩国会晤，对美股影响最大的是中美贸易 政策的变化。 12月降息存变 ...

展望后市，机构普遍认为，北美持续加大AI投入，算力基础设施高景气度延续。消息面上，北美四大 云厂商（MAMG——微软、亚马逊、Meta、谷歌）近日已发布2025Q3业绩：MAMG 2025Q3合计资本 开支同比增长68%至964亿美元，Factset一致预期2025年资本开支将达到3633亿美元（同比+63%）。 华泰证券指出，海外CSP资本开支高增叠加乐观指引，有望持续提振算力需求信心，一方面或持续利好 海外算力配套产业链，另一方面或将继续带动国内互联网厂商增加投资，建议关注全球AI算力链（光 模块、液冷、铜连接、交换机等）。 中信建投也认为，北美四家CSP公布三季报，资本开支加速增长，同时各家对未来基础设施投资均继续 保持积极态度。短期内，光模块等AI算力板块难免有震荡调整，但这不代表产业的景气趋势结束，站 在中期视角仍建议持续重视AI板块。一方面，持续推荐AI算力板块，包括北美算力产业链与国内算力 产业链核心公司；另一方面，我们也建议关注AI应用板块，包括端侧AI的进展，如物联网模组公司。 国盛证券直言，光通信行业在多重利好驱动下，正步入一个"拾级而上"的新增长周期。光通信行业正处 在从800G向1.6 ...

即便是在由AI超级大浪潮推动的全球经济扩张中被视为最大赢家势力的科技公司，比如Facebook与 Instagram母公司Meta、美国老牌科技巨头微软，最近也宣布了人员缩减计划。即使像Meta这样的AI最 大赢家也宣布裁员，足以见得裁员潮不全赖AI，背后核心逻辑仍然基于经济动能减缓之下的效率提 升。 在一个由不确定性、AI狂热情绪和全球地缘政治紧张局势所定义的经济体中，数以万计的美国工人群 体正成为亚马逊(AMZN.US)、联合包裹(UPS.US)、雀巢(NSRGY.US)以及其他大型公司万人裁员潮的受 害者。 亚马逊上周二在发给员工们的一则内部信息中表示，将把其"公司员工队伍"减少约1.4万个职位。这一 公告引发了一个问题：这是否意味着工人们正在被新兴技术取代，而新兴技术有可能使他们彻底跟不上 时代? 亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)表示，缩减员工队伍"并不是真正由财务因素所驱动的，甚至现 在也并非真的由AI驱动——至少现在不是。" "这是公司文化问题，"贾西表示。"如果你像我们那样在几年里增长得如此之快——业务规模、人员数 量、实体地点数量、所涉业务类型——你最终会拥有比之前多得多的人 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 2.3% in October, defying historical trends associated with the month [1] - The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the S&P 500, climbing 4.7%, driven by the technology sector [1] Company Highlights - Amazon's shares surged by 9.6% due to strong growth in its cloud-computing unit and high demand in AI and core infrastructure, positively impacting related stocks like Palantir and Oracle [2] - Nvidia reached a valuation of $5 trillion, with its CEO highlighting a "virtuous cycle" in AI that promotes continuous growth and investment [3] Industry Trends - Big Tech companies reported significant increases in capital expenditure, primarily directed towards AI infrastructure, indicating sustained enthusiasm for AI rather than a temporary spike [4]