Broadcom (AVGO) shares have appreciated 32.4% in the past month, outperforming both the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Electronics Semiconductors industry. Over the same timeframe, the sector and industry have returned 0.3% and 18.9%, respectively.AVGO is benefiting from strong demand for its networking products and custom AI accelerators (XPUs). In fiscal 2024, AI revenues jumped 220% over fiscal 2023 to $12.2 billion and represented 41% of semiconductor revenues. The acquisition of VMwar ...

2024 年 12 月的全球 AI 大事记。 文丨贺乾明 编辑丨程曼祺 2024 年 12 月的 AI 月报，你会看到： OpenAI、Google 发布新模型，中国的 DeepSeek 也抢到了风头 GPT-5 训练遇阻的更多细节 强化学习的重要性持续提升 至少有三个团队推出了世界模型 Google 霸占大模型竞技场前三 中国公司在开源社区存在感大涨 博通帮大公司自研 AI 芯片，市值破万亿美元 OpenAI 正式启动转型营利公司 20+ AI 公司获 5000 万美元以上投资，有 2 家中国公司 大模型的幻觉并不是一无是处 以下是我们第 2 期 AI 月报，欢迎大家在留言区补充我们没有提到的重要进展。 技术｜10 亿美元没训出 GPT-5，新版 Scaling Laws 初步证明可行，多款世界模型亮相 GPT-5 训练遇阻的更多细节 OpenAI 训练 GPT-5（代号 Orion）遇阻，是大模型能力提升放缓的重要证据。12 月，多家媒体提供了更多的细 节： 2023 年 4 月推出 GPT-4 后，OpenAI 一直在开发 GPT-5，已经持续 20 个月。OpenAI 看到过乐观信号：24 年 4 月 ...

Wall Street witnessed an astonishing bull run in the past 24 months. The major drivers of this rally were the globally booming artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, especially generative AI. Companies that have extensively applied AI in their final products have become multi-baggers. Some stock prices have skyrocketed 300-400% during this period.AI frenzy is likely to continue in 2025. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that generative AI spending will increase from $67 billion in 2023 to $1.3 trillion b ...

Government Policy and AI Regulation - The Biden administration issued an executive order requiring companies with large AI models to share information with the federal government [1] - President-elect Trump is expected to roll back Biden's executive order, which he criticized for hindering AI innovation and imposing radical left-wing ideas [3] - Trump is likely to promote AI data center infrastructure and encourage AI use for national security, while expanding export restrictions on AI technology to counter China [3] AI-Related Stocks and Chipmakers - Stocks like Marvell Technology (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), and QUALCOMM (QCOM) are expected to benefit from the incoming administration's policies [2] - Chipmakers have outperformed other AI-related stocks due to custom designs that extend AI into new devices and industries, alongside robust data storage solutions and design tools [2] Company Performance and Earnings Growth - Marvell Technology (MRVL) has an expected earnings growth rate of 12.6% for the current year, with a 15.4% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past 60 days [4] - Broadcom (AVGO) has an expected earnings growth rate of 45% for the current year, with a 4.5% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past 60 days [5] - QUALCOMM (QCOM) has an expected earnings growth rate of 7.5% for the current year, with a 4% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past 60 days [6]

Network Modernization and IoT - Wireless equipment makers benefit from the growing demand for robust network infrastructure driven by the adoption of connected devices and advanced use cases like retail, warehouse automation, and Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything technology [1] - The proliferation of IoT devices across industries in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region has propelled net sales growth in the Enterprise Technology segment [12] Datacenter and Cloud Computing - The shift toward cloud computing is increasing the need for datacenters, driving demand for GPUs and benefiting companies like NVIDIA [2] - Datacenter operators like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expanding their operations globally, further driving demand for GPUs [2] AI Integration and Digital Transformation - Enterprises across industries are emphasizing digital transformation, with AI becoming a critical component for enhancing efficiency, optimizing supply chains, and improving customer service [5] - NVIDIA's GPUs are rapidly benefiting from the proliferation of AI, expanding its base in untapped markets like automotive, healthcare, and manufacturing [2] - Tech giants have made significant investments in incorporating AI capabilities across their product portfolios to bolster competitive edge [5] Key Companies and Their Growth - NVIDIA Corporation is a leader in visual computing technologies and AI-based solutions, supporting high-performance computing, gaming, and virtual reality platforms [6] - Ubiquiti Inc offers a comprehensive portfolio of networking products and solutions, with significant investments in inventory to meet increasing demand [9][17] - Broadcom Inc provides semiconductor solutions used in various end products, experiencing four times growth in AI connectivity revenues [10][15] - Celestica Inc is a leading electronics manufacturing services company, capitalizing on the growing proliferation of AI-based applications and generative AI tools [13][20] Macroeconomic and Market Trends - Inflationary pressure declined throughout 2024, with a relatively low unemployment rate and interest rate cuts propelling growth in the tech sector [3] - The tech sector was a significant contributor to the stock market's bull run in 2024, driven by AI advancements, cloud computing adoption, and 5G deployment [11] - Flexibility in business models has allowed tech enterprises to navigate geopolitical volatility, with companies like NVIDIA, Ubiquiti, Celestica, and Broadcom delivering solid returns [19] Earnings and Stock Performance - NVIDIA's stock gained 1767% over the past year, with earnings estimates improving to $294 per share for 2025 and long-term earnings growth expectations of 20% [4] - Ubiquiti's stock gained 1442% over the past year, with earnings estimates improving to $73 per share for 2025 and an earnings surprise of 209% in the last reported quarter [23] - Broadcom's stock gained 1166% over the past year, with earnings estimates improving to $628 per share for 2025 and long-term earnings growth expectations of 1778% [24] - Celestica's stock gained 2248% over the past year, with earnings estimates remaining unchanged at $444 per share for 2025 and an earnings surprise of 1321% on average [25]

Broadcom - Broadcom specializes in chips for connectivity applications such as networking, server storage, and broadband, and has built enterprise infrastructure software into about 40% of its business [15] - The company generated $51.5 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, with $19.4 billion (37%) in free cash flow [21] - Broadcom's AI-related revenue totaled $12.2 billion this year, with management expecting substantial growth as AI chip deals progress [20] - Analysts estimate Broadcom will grow earnings by an average of nearly 22% annually over the long term [7] - The company has paid and raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years, with an average hike of 14.7% over the past five years, and the current payout ratio is only 48% of fiscal year 2024 earnings [7] Microsoft - Microsoft is on a 22-year dividend growth streak and has an AAA credit rating, higher than the U.S. government [2][14] - The company has integrated AI throughout its software products to enhance user experience and owns Azure, the world's second-largest cloud computing platform, which is fueled by AI applications [8][14] - Microsoft reached a $3.2 trillion market cap and $254 billion in annual revenue, with analysts estimating earnings growth of 13% annually over the long term [18] - The dividend payout ratio is only 26% of 2024 earnings estimates, providing financial flexibility and security [2][17] Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms initiated its dividend this year and has strong potential for dividend growth, with a payout ratio of only 9% of 2024 earnings estimates [9][10] - The company is heavily investing in AI, including creating an open-source AI model (Llama) and building data centers to support its computing requirements [5] - Meta is the world's best advertising business, generating profits by showing digital ads to 3.29 billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads [19] - Analysts estimate earnings will rise by an average of 17% annually over the long term, supporting high dividend growth with a low payout ratio [6] AI Industry - AI is a transformative technology with long-term investment potential, and some leading AI companies pay dividends, offering both capital gains and passive income [4][13] - Companies like Broadcom, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms are leveraging AI to enhance their core businesses and create growth opportunities, making them strong candidates for long-term wealth compounding [11][12]

Broadcom (AVGO) - Broadcom is a key supplier to Apple and has secured two hyper-scale data center customers, rumored to be Alphabet and Meta Platforms or similar companies like Amazon and Microsoft [1] - The company is considered the second-largest AI semiconductor supplier, making its growth narrative very appealing [11] Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is the largest AI chipmaker, with its Blackwell series AI chips being the highest-performing on the market despite some overheating challenges [3] - Nvidia's H100 and H200 series chips have driven significant growth, with total sales projected at $129.02 billion in fiscal 2025, a 1000% increase from 2020 sales of $10.91 billion [15] - Nvidia's price performance has more than doubled its top-line growth, with FY26 sales projected to increase by 48% to $191.84 billion [9] - YTD performance: +176% [5] Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor is the world's largest provider of integrated circuit foundries and a key supplier for Apple [14] - The company provides foundries for other companies to produce AI chips, including Nvidia [14] - Taiwan Semiconductor has the cheapest P/E valuation on the list at 29.2X forward earnings and is expected to post double-digit top and bottom-line growth this year and in FY25 [17] - YTD performance: +116% [8] Industry Overview - The global market for artificial intelligence is presumed to be worth trillions in the coming years, making semiconductor stocks like Broadcom, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor lucrative investments going into 2025 [7] - Semiconductor stocks are particularly targeted due to their role in configuring artificial intelligence [18] - YTD performance of Nvidia: +94% [4]

NVIDIA - NVIDIA is the dominant player in AI infrastructure and GPUs, with no significant competition yet [1] - The company's GPUs are in high demand for accelerating AI workloads, a trend expected to continue [1] - NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 53.92 and a projected earnings growth of 40.29% [1][16] - The stock has a 19.8% upside potential and a dividend yield of 0.03% [2][15] - NVIDIA's MarketRank™ is in the 98th percentile, indicating strong market performance [2] Broadcom - Broadcom is NVIDIA's main competitor in AI computing, focusing on ASICs for specific customers [5][17] - The company's Q3 revenue grew by 51%, with AI-driven revenues surging 220% [6] - Broadcom has a P/E ratio of 210.03 and a dividend yield of 0.98% [17] - The stock has a projected earnings growth of 35.88% and a MarketRank™ in the 94th percentile [6][17] - Broadcom acquired three new hyperscaler customers, potentially adding tens of billions in future revenue [6] TSMC - TSMC manufactures approximately 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors [23] - The company is building facilities in the US to mitigate geopolitical risks, including a potential collaboration with NVIDIA for AI chips [25] - TSMC has a P/E ratio of 32.31 and a dividend yield of 1.09% [9][23] - The stock has a 6.1% upside potential and a projected earnings growth of 27.34% [10][23] - TSMC's MarketRank™ is in the 73rd percentile, with a moderate buy rating from analysts [10] Industry Trends - The AI arms race in big tech is driving demand for advanced semiconductors, benefiting companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC [14] - In 2024, chip stocks returned 182%, 123%, and 97%, reflecting strong market performance [14] - The AI revolution is expected to create real-world impacts by 2025, further boosting demand for advanced chips [3][14]

Core Insights - Stock splits are indicative of a company's health and can signal positive future performance, as companies that split their stock tend to outperform the market over time [1][9] - Employees benefit from stock splits as they make shares more affordable, allowing for easier participation in ownership without straining personal finances [2][9] Broadcom - Broadcom is considering a stock split in 2024, having increased over 400% in the last two years and 30% since the last earnings report, with potential for further growth [3] - The stock is currently trading at $239.68 with a price target of $221.88, and analysts expect it to reach above $500 due to AI-driven growth and strong cash flow [3][10] - Revenue growth is projected near 15% for 2025, driven by custom AI accelerators and the acquisition of VMWare, which is expected to enhance growth significantly [10] Casey's General Stores - Casey's General Stores has maintained a self-funded growth model, allowing for dividends and share buybacks while expanding its convenience store operations [4] - The stock is trading at $403.67, with a price target of $424.00, and is likely to undergo a stock split as it continues to trend higher [4] - The recent acquisition of Fikes is expected to bolster its market presence in the Southwest, contributing to sustained share price growth [4] Costco - Costco's stock is trading at nearly $1000, making it a prime candidate for a stock split due to its high share price [12] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by robust cash flow and a healthy balance sheet, with potential special dividends anticipated by late 2025 or early 2026 [12] - Costco's strong market position and cash build-up are critical for reinvestment and capital returns, further solidifying its financial health [12]

Company Overview - Nvidia is a leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) with over 80% market share in AI accelerators, known for accelerating complex workloads like machine learning and AI applications [2] - Broadcom operates in the semiconductor and infrastructure software sectors, with significant market shares of 80% in networking chips and 60% in custom AI chips [14] Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 94% increase in revenue to $35 billion for Q3 fiscal 2025, driven by 112% growth in data center sales and 72% growth in automotive and robotics sales, with non-GAAP earnings more than doubling to $0.81 per diluted share [3] - Broadcom's revenue increased by 51% to $14 billion in Q4 fiscal 2024, with non-GAAP earnings rising 28% to $1.42 per diluted share [5] Market Trends - Nvidia's stock has surged 895% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with 92% of analysts rating it a buy and a median target price of $175 per share, indicating a 30% upside from the current price of $134 [6] - Wall Street anticipates Broadcom's adjusted earnings to grow by 30% in the next four quarters, making its current valuation of 46 times adjusted earnings appear reasonable [11] Strategic Moves - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire stake in Nvidia in Q3 and initiated a new position in Broadcom, which raises questions about his insights into market trends [1][4] - Broadcom's acquisition of VMware contributed 40 percentage points to revenue growth, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position [10] Future Outlook - Nvidia's adjusted earnings are expected to increase by 50% in the next four quarters, suggesting that its current valuation of 52 times adjusted earnings is relatively cheap [13] - Broadcom anticipates a fivefold increase in AI chip sales to major customers over the next three years, with potential new customers including Apple and OpenAI, indicating strong future growth prospects [15]