作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本文字数：1462，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.12. 18 周三美股全线下挫，甲骨文数据中心投资消息引发科技巨头的抛售潮，道指和标普500指数连续四个 交易日走低。 截至收盘，道指跌228.29点，跌幅0.47%，报47885.97点，失守48000点关口，纳指跌1.81%，报 22693.32点，标普500指数跌1.16%，报6721.43点。科技、通信服务和工业板块领跌大盘，能源板块 则逆势领涨。衡量市场波动性的恐慌指数VIX飙升6.9%，报17.62。 明星科技股普跌，英伟达跌3.8%，微软跌0.1%，亚马逊跌0.6%，苹果跌1.0%，Meta跌1.2%，谷歌 跌3.1%，特斯拉跌4.6%。 费城半导体指数跌3.3%，其中芯片制造商博通跌4.4%，AMD跌5.3%。 个股方面，甲骨文跌5.4%，据报道，这家云计算巨头最大的数据中心合作伙伴蓝猫头鹰资本将不再 为其价值100亿美元的新数据中心项目提供资金支持，公司随后的澄清公告并未打消市场担忧。 华纳兄弟探索跌2.3%，公司董事会否决了派拉蒙 -天舞传媒提出的1084亿美元恶意收购要约，转而倾 向于接受网飞的确定性报价。 纳 ...

Core Insights - The latest 13F filing from Lone Pine Capital indicates significant portfolio adjustments, particularly in large-cap technology, consumer platforms, and financial services, reflecting a more risk-balanced approach as year-end approaches [1] Portfolio Adjustments - **Meta Platforms Inc. (META)**: Reduced by 342,757 shares (20.59%), maintaining a substantial holding worth over $971 million, indicating profit-taking rather than a loss of conviction [2] - **Vistra Corp (VST)**: Trimmed by 1,770,478 shares (27.37%), likely locking in gains after significant appreciation driven by power-generation strength [3] - **Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)**: Reduced by 383,520 shares (11.16%), remaining a core holding valued at $852 million amid cyclical uncertainty [4] - **AppLovin (APP)**: Reduced by 152,196 shares (12.07%), reflecting portfolio resizing rather than a fundamental shift [5] - **Microsoft Corp (MSFT)**: Trimmed by 646,251 shares (34.84%), still representing a large stake of $625 million, indicating profit-taking [10] - **Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)**: Reduced by 2,221,628 shares (44.14%), with a remaining position valued at $617 million, reflecting reallocation within mega-cap tech [11] - **Capital One Financial (COF)**: Reduced by 511,142 shares (16.59%) following strong performance [12] - **KKR & Co (KKR)**: Trimmed by 1,141,208 shares (21.85%), appearing valuation-driven after appreciation [13] Notable Increases - **LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)**: Increased by 383,466 shares (20.48%), expanding the position to $750 million, reflecting confidence in its scalable advisor platform [6] - **Philip Morris (PM)**: Increased by 1,856,749 shares (67.33%), bringing the position to $748 million, aligning with a strategy of investing in stable, cash-rich companies [7] - **Brookfield Corp (BN)**: Increased by 4,559,963 shares (81.12%), indicating a belief in the stock's undervaluation relative to its diversified asset management ecosystem [8] - **Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)**: New position established with 1,549,412 shares (100.00%), indicating a strong belief in AI infrastructure growth [14] Strategic Themes - **Selective Trimming of Mega-Cap Tech Winners**: Reductions in META, MSFT, AMZN, and TSM reflect disciplined risk management after substantial rallies, moderating concentration risk while maintaining core positions [15] - **Reallocation Toward Cash-Heavy Compounders**: Additions to PM, BN, and LPLA emphasize resilient earnings profiles and attractive valuations [16] - **New Conviction Bet on AI Infrastructure via Broadcom**: The initiation of a large AVGO position signals confidence in the accelerating demand for AI hardware [17] - **Active, High-Conviction Portfolio Rotation**: Lone Pine's approach involves selectively trimming oversized winners and reallocating to durable cash-flow engines while initiating new positions in strong long-term fundamentals [18] Summary - Lone Pine Capital's Q3 2025 13F reveals a portfolio recalibration focused on reducing oversized mega-cap exposures, reinforcing durable cash generators, and launching a significant new position in Broadcom to capture AI-infrastructure tailwinds, resulting in a portfolio geared toward long-term growth while balancing risk as year-end volatility approaches [19]

Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to see a third consecutive year of gains, but forecasts suggest a potential decline in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to finish around 6,500, which is over 3% below its recent close [1][9] - Analysts are generally cautious about stock returns moderating after three years of significant gains driven by AI stocks, with concerns about a potential AI bubble impacting market leaders [3] Historical Context - Historical trends indicate that midterm election years tend to be challenging for stocks, with increased volatility and poor performance since 1950 [4] - Leadership changes at the Federal Reserve have historically coincided with market turbulence, raising concerns about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence [5][6] Sector Analysis - The tech sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is under scrutiny as investors reassess valuations and spending on AI infrastructure after a prolonged bull market [7] - Broadcom's recent earnings report exemplifies the high expectations for AI beneficiaries, as despite exceeding estimates, the stock fell significantly, indicating market pressures on AI stocks [8][10]

AI chip stocks haven’t had the smoothest of rides lately, but Bank of America believes the bigger trend driving them is intact. In doing so, the investment bank's analysts are putting familiar names at the top of their AI stocks to buy list for 2026. Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Lam Research (LRCX) are BofA’s three headline picks, as it argues that the powerful AI spending boom is still in its early innings. For perspective, four of the biggest tech giants in Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta ...

An anxious market, a turbulent tech trade, and what to do about it. Let's ask our panel. Trivariates Adam Parker, High Tower Stephanie Link, I Capitalap Shanali Bassic.Adam and Stephanie are both CNBC contributors. It's great to have everybody with us. Chanali, I'll turn to you first because you're sitting with me right here at Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.What's going on in this market. >> You know, it's interesting. We've been saying for months, right, that the tech trade would get more selective ...

The AI trade is unwinding — with investors increasingly worried about debt raising by companies like Oracle and CoreWeave used to finance AI data-center buildouts. ...

German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall said on Wednesday it has initiated the sale of its civil business activities and will classify them as discontinued operations with immediate effect. ...

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's stock has recently declined amid tech-market volatility, but ongoing demand for AI networking chips and custom accelerators supports a modestly bullish outlook despite technical weaknesses [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are weighing the impact of institutional investor backing, VMware integration, and Broadcom's steady cash flow profile against broader tech-market volatility [1]. - The AI price-prediction model indicates that Broadcom's price is expected to rise modestly, with notable volatility reflecting strong fundamentals amidst technical weaknesses [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Broadcom's integration with VMware continues to enhance its software-adjacent revenue, which, along with semiconductor sales, strengthens free cash flow and provides stability against market fluctuations [4]. - Analysts highlight Broadcom's ability to generate predictable cash flows while engaging in AI-driven growth sectors, positioning it as a defensive growth play compared to more volatile peers [4]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - December's price action shows a duality, with technical indicators like MACD and RSI indicating sharp downward moves, suggesting short-term selling pressure, while fundamentals indicate that declines may be more technical than structural [5]. - The AI model predicts an average price of $347.50, implying a move of approximately +2.26% into early January, despite signals of waning momentum and short-term selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - The AI outlook serves as a short-term temperature check, estimating market behavior over the next few weeks as investors consider ongoing demand for AI products and steady institutional cash flow [6]. - Near-term market movements are likely to be influenced by technical shifts and sector rotation, while long-term investors can focus on Broadcom's durable fundamentals [6].

CANADA - 2025/12/15: In this photo illustration, the Broadcom logo is seen in the background beside a printed circuit board (PCB). (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesBroadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) recently experienced a 15% decline within a week, falling to approximately $340. What caused this? Management indicated that increasing sales of custom AI processors—which have lower margins—will reduce the company's overall gross margins ...

Market Analysis by covering: Broadcom Inc. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...