瑞银发表研究报告指，日前与博通管理团队交流后，认为上周五公司股价显著回调属市场过度反应，并 因应管理层的最新展望，将2026财年AI半导体收入预测上调至超过600亿美元，即按年增长近三倍。该 行指出，管理层透露AI相关积压订单额达到730亿美元，第四财季总订单积压按季增长约50%，当中AI 半导体订单积压增长超过一倍，意味着若排除来自Anthropic的110亿美元新订单，积压订单仍增长约 200亿至250亿美元。公司有信心其AI收入表现可超越市场预期。 瑞银相应将博通2027财年收入预测上调至1350亿美元，每股盈利预测上调至14.15美元，目标价由472美 元上调至475美元，续予"买入"评级。 ...

December 17, 2025 12:04 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America 2026 Semiconductor Outlook: AI semi strength pushing the ecosystem to the limits Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst cer ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated positively, with a strong outlook for AI-related sectors, commercial silicon, and custom silicon [7][9]. Core Insights - The AI server market is expected to see significant growth, with shipments of full-rack AI servers projected between 16,000 and 100,000 units by 2026 [1][2]. - DRAM supply chain outlook is optimistic, while NAND supply chain remains cautious due to tight supply conditions leading to price increases of 25-30% for raw materials in PCs and smartphones [1][3]. - Broadcom is performing well in both commercial and custom silicon sectors, with a positive outlook for 2026 despite recent stock price adjustments [4][7]. - The optical networking sector is crucial for efficient connections between processors in AI data centers, with the optical transceiver market expected to reach $30 billion by 2026 [5][6]. AI Supply Chain Insights - The AI supply chain shows strong growth potential, with capital expenditures from the top five hyperscale data centers expected to increase by 35% [2][14]. - DRAM demand is particularly strong for high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is driving price increases due to supply constraints [2][6]. - Semiconductor capital equipment spending is forecasted to grow by 11% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, benefiting from changes in global redundant production [9][10]. Company-Specific Insights - Broadcom is viewed positively in the semiconductor cycle, with expectations of continued strong performance [4][7]. - Application Materials is expected to perform well in DRAM and advanced logic chip foundry sectors, with a positive outlook for 2026 [11][12]. - Teradyne has been upgraded to a buy rating due to anticipated new orders in video-related business [11]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards custom chips, with significant contributions from companies like Google and NVIDIA [1][4]. - The optical networking market is transitioning to higher speeds, which is driving growth across the supply chain [5][6]. - The overall semiconductor capital equipment sector is expected to see strong growth due to memory chip demand driven by DRAM shortages [10][12]. Future Trends - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is characterized by strong cyclical growth, with potential for exceeding previous forecasts in 2026 and 2027 [10][11]. - The NAND flash market is under pressure due to supply constraints, with no new capacity expected in 2026 [12][13]. - The AI market is heavily influenced by large enterprises, which account for 80% of the market, while smaller companies face funding challenges [14][15][16].

Group 1 - The core belief of Bank of America is that the AI spending boom has a long development period ahead, with Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Lam Research (LRCX.US) being top semiconductor stocks to hold through 2026 [1] - The company predicts semiconductor sales will approach $1 trillion by 2026, achieving approximately 30% growth, while wafer fabrication equipment sales are expected to see nearly double-digit year-over-year growth [1] - In addition to the aforementioned companies, Bank of America favors large-cap stocks like KLA (KLAC.US), Analog Devices (ADI.US), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US), as well as small-cap stocks such as Credo Technology (CRDO.US), MKS (MKSI.US), Macom Technology Solutions (MTSI.US), Teradyne (TER.US), and Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS.US) [1] Group 2 - Bank of America states that the AI race is still in the "early to mid-stage," and despite recent stock volatility for companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, investors should focus on industry leaders [2] - The firm forecasts another 50% or higher year-over-year growth for AI semiconductors driven by strong data center utilization, supply constraints, enterprise adoption, and competition among LLM developers, hyperscale cloud providers, and sovereign customers [2] - In the analog chip sector, the analysts advise investors to be selective due to skepticism about industry improvement, citing a lackluster macro environment, declining automotive production, increased competition from China, and weak consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Emerging themes for 2026 include co-packaged optics, robotics, and quantum computing, with Lumentum (LITE.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) identified as leaders in the co-packaged optics space [3] - The focus of the White House on robotics technology in 2026 is expected to benefit Teradyne [3] - Quantum computing is still viewed as an "emerging opportunity," despite its long-term implications [3]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's stock price has dropped approximately 18% from recent highs, primarily following the release of its Q4 earnings and guidance, despite significant revenue growth. The decline is attributed to management's comments regarding the dilution of profit margins due to increasing AI revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4, Broadcom reported a revenue increase of 28% year-over-year, reaching slightly above $18 billion, with semiconductor solutions revenue growing by 35% and infrastructure software revenue by 19% [1]. - AI semiconductor revenue surged by 74% year-over-year in Q4, with expectations for this growth to accelerate in Q1 of FY2026, potentially doubling to $8.2 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Profitability and Margins - Management anticipates a decline in gross margin by about one percentage point in Q1 due to the increasing share of AI revenue, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be around 67% of revenue, down from 68% in Q4 [2]. - Non-AI semiconductor revenue is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, indicating that growth is heavily reliant on AI products, which have lower profit margins [2]. Group 3: Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Broadcom generated $26.9 billion in free cash flow in FY2025, returning $17.5 billion to shareholders, including $11.1 billion in dividends and $6.4 billion in stock buybacks [2]. - The company recently increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.65 per share, although these figures may appear less impressive against its $1.6 trillion market capitalization [2]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - As of the writing, Broadcom's stock price is approximately $340 per share, with a projected P/E ratio of about 36. Maintaining gross margins and sustaining rapid growth in AI business will be crucial for justifying this valuation [3].

Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The central economic work conference emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year [1][4] - Domestic demand has remained stable this year, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters, with effective consumption policies showing significant results [1][4] - However, there has been a recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth, indicating the need for continued efforts to boost domestic demand [1][4] Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Vanke announced a proposal to extend the principal repayment date of its fourth tranche of medium-term notes for 2022 by 12 months to December 15, 2026, with interest of 60 million yuan due on December 15, 2025, to be paid within a grace period [2][5] - During the grace period, unpaid principal will accrue interest at 3.00%, while unpaid interest will not accrue additional interest, and the coupon rate will remain unchanged at 3.00% [2][5] - After the market close on December 16, several companies disclosed shareholding changes, with some increasing their holdings and others, including Ningbo Color Masterbatch and Huashu Co., announcing reductions [2][5] Peripheral Markets and Related Assets - On Tuesday, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.62%, the Nasdaq up 0.23%, and the S&P 500 down 0.24% [3][6] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla gaining 3.07% and reaching a new closing high, while Qualcomm fell over 1% [3][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.34%, with notable declines in companies like Zhongjin Medical and Kandi Technologies [7] - International oil prices saw WTI crude oil drop 3% to below $55 per barrel, currently at $54.97, while Brent crude fell 2.58% below $59 per barrel [7]

重磅数据搅动美联储降息前景。 北京时间12月16日晚间，美国劳工统计局一次性公布了10月和11月的非农就业数据，其中显示，美国11 月失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。有分析称，这很可能是促使美联储进一步降息 的关键因素。 非农数据公布后，交易员押注美联储2026年将降息两次。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25 个基点的概率一度升至26.6%，数据公布前这一概率为22%。受此影响，美元指数直线跳水，一度跌破 98，为10月6日以来首次。美股三大指数集体低开后，震荡分化，纳指拉升翻红，大型科技股多数收 涨。 另据最新消息，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间周三面试另一位美联储主席候选人——美联储理事克里斯 托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）。在所有被考虑的美联储主席人选中，沃勒在《华尔街日报》10月对经 济学家的调查中被评为首选，华尔街普遍对沃勒评价较高。 重磅数据出炉 从修正数据来看，美国就业市场正加速"降温"。美国8月非农新增就业人数由-0.4万人修正至-2.6万人； 9月份非农新增就业人数由11.9万人修正至10.8万人。这意味着，美国8月和9月新增就业人数合计下 ...

Group 1 - Investors are concerned about the high valuations in the AI industry, leading to cautious trading and a collective decline in the three major U.S. stock indices on Monday, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.16%, and Nasdaq down 0.59% [1] - The sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks continues, with major companies like Broadcom and Oracle experiencing significant declines. Broadcom's stock fell 5.59% and Oracle's stock fell 2.66% on Monday, marking a four-day decline of over 18% for Broadcom and 17.7% for Oracle [5] - Oracle's AI infrastructure business is increasingly reliant on debt financing, raising concerns about the potential for debt growth to outpace profit growth [5] Group 2 - European investors expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, boosting market risk appetite and leading to gains in banking and retail stocks. The UK stock market rose by 1.06%, France by 0.70%, and Germany by 0.18% [7] - International oil prices fell, with light crude oil for January delivery closing at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08% [8]

Market Performance - The major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq slightly up while the S&P 500 fell for the third consecutive day [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,114.26, down 302.30 points (-0.62%), while the Nasdaq rose by 54.05 points (+0.23%) to 23,111.46, and the S&P 500 decreased by 16.25 points (-0.24%) to 6,800.26 [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks experienced gains, with Tesla rising over 3%, reaching a historic high and increasing its market value by $48.5 billion (approximately 341.5 billion RMB) to $1.63 trillion, surpassing Broadcom to become the seventh-largest company in the U.S. by market capitalization [2] - The oil and energy sectors faced significant declines, with British Petroleum dropping over 4% [2] - Cryptocurrency and computer hardware sectors saw notable increases, with Hut 8 rising nearly 4% and Strategy and SanDisk both up over 3% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.34%, with several Chinese stocks experiencing declines, including Yipeng Energy down 6.5% and Lingzhang Portal and Xiaoying Technology both down over 4% [2] - Conversely, Dingdong Maicai surged over 11%, Pony.ai increased by over 7%, and Zhihu rose by over 3% [2] Commodity Market - The oil market experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures falling below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, closing down over 2.8% [3][4] - Year-to-date, WTI crude oil futures have declined approximately 22%, marking the worst annual performance since 2018, while Brent crude has dropped nearly 20%, the worst since 2020 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Following a significant drop, the cryptocurrency market saw a near-total rebound, with Bitcoin rising above $87,000, up 2.21% [6] - Despite the rebound, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may soon reach new lows, potentially falling below $80,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market reaction to Broadcom's (AVGO.US) and Oracle's (ORCL.US) earnings reports was considered an overreaction, with UBS raising its revenue expectations for Broadcom's AI semiconductor business, projecting revenues to exceed $60 billion in fiscal year 2026, nearly tripling year-over-year [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings and Market Reaction - Broadcom's stock experienced a significant decline, losing 17% over two days following the earnings report [1]. - UBS held an investor meeting with Broadcom's management, which led to an upward revision of performance expectations based on management's comments regarding AI semiconductor revenue [1][3]. Group 2: Order Backlog and Revenue Projections - The company reported an AI business order backlog of $73 billion, covering an 18-month period, but management indicated that actual delivery timelines would be closer to 12 months [4]. - In Q4, total order backlog increased by 50% quarter-over-quarter, with AI semiconductor orders doubling; excluding a new $11 billion order from Anthropic, the remaining backlog still increased by $20-25 billion, primarily from Google and Meta [4][9]. - Broadcom anticipates that the $21 billion rack order for Anthropic may be delayed until fiscal year 2027 due to preparation progress [4][7]. Group 3: Profit Margins and Business Segments - The company reaffirmed that the gross margin for its XPU business is approximately 55%, while the AI networking business has a gross margin of about 80% [5][8]. - The overall gross margin for the $21 billion revenue from racks is expected to fall within the 45%-50% range due to the inclusion of resale components [5]. - Broadcom's management expressed confidence that AI business revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 will exceed current market expectations, with revenue projections for fiscal year 2027 raised to $135 billion, surpassing market consensus by 2% [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Strategic Outlook - Broadcom noted a trend where AI labs are capturing more market share that was originally expected to be enterprise-level AI markets, as companies increasingly opt for services from providers like OpenAI and Anthropic rather than fine-tuning large models themselves [10]. - The company is open to flexible monetization models for custom chips, including potential licensing agreements, which could enhance overall gross and operating profit margins [10].