Wall Street always loves a good consensus, especially when the stock market’s rip-roaring. That’s exactly when Bank of America’s fresh 2026 forecast becomes all the more interesting. According to a Business Insider report, while every major Wall Street firm dishes out a double-digit target for the S&P 500 next year, BofA analysts are pumping the brakes. Considering the S&P 500 closed at nearly 6,830 on Dec. 3, BofA’s year-end 7,100 S&P 500 forecast points to roughly a 4% upside. Investors have clearly go ...

2025.12. 04 本文字数：2885，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 标普500指数重新逼近历史新高。但数据显示，美股科技股在本轮美股行情中未能一如往常成为领涨 板块，市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫的担忧导致AI概念龙头股英伟达、微软等股价受到拖累。 相比之下，自10月28日以来，标普500信息技术指数同期反而整体下跌了4.2%，"美股科技股七巨 头"（下称"美股七巨头"）的股票整体下跌1.3%，仅谷歌母公司Alphabet仍录得18.1%的涨幅。AI 领军股英伟达跌去9.7%，AI领军企业股整体下跌8.4%，AI软件股整体下跌8.5%。 而在4月美国总统特朗普宣布关税政策导致大幅抛售后，科技股在4月8日~10月28日期间始终领涨标 普500指数的上一轮反弹。"美股七巨头"期间上涨69.8%，英伟达期间上涨108.8%。AI领军企业股 整体上涨124.2%，AI软件股整体上涨67.9%。10月29日，科技板块在标普500指数中的权重还一 度创下历史新高，达到约36%。 这被市场人士解读为，由于对股票高估值以及在AI算力、基础建设方面的巨额支出能否换来切实利润 的担忧越发盛行，美股投资者对AI ...

Core Insights - Starting January 2026, Bank of America (BAC) will allow wealth advisers to recommend a small crypto allocation of 1% to 4% for suitable clients, integrating crypto into the bank's house view with research coverage and portfolio guidelines [1][8] - The initial focus will be on regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs, providing clients with a traditional security-like wrapper that offers daily liquidity and operational controls [2][8] - This shift may further mainstream crypto in advised portfolios, potentially prompting other financial institutions to follow suit [3] Company Developments - Bank of America has seen its shares rise by 23% this year, indicating positive market performance [7] - The bank's current valuation is at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.97X, which is below the industry average [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bank of America's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 15.9% for 2025 and 14.5% for 2026, with earnings estimates increasing to $3.80 and $4.35 respectively [10]

Bank of America plans to sponsor the Great Ethiopian Run https://t.co/gbkaTpR21Q ...

美银报告称，美国或海外市场今年表现强劲，明年市场波动性将加剧，但人工智能(AI)驱动股市动力持 续，亦是"K型"经济的显著特征。对美国及中国经济持乐观态度，预计经济增长将高于市场普遍预期。 关于AI泡沫即将破裂被夸大，预计明年AI投资将继续保持稳健增长。美银环球研究主管Candace Browning表示，市场对这些担忧依然存在，但其团队仍然看好经济和AI。美银十大预测： 1、美国明年 经济增长预测将高于市场预期。美国明年经济增长2.4%，主要是《大而美的法案》带来财政支持、重 新恢复的《减税与就业法案》激励措施、更友好的贸易政策、持续强劲商业投资，以及美联储减息政策 的滞后效应。 2、人工智能热潮持续，泡沫尚未出现。AI投资周期将持续，美国股市的科技板块依然处 于稳固基础。围绕数据中心、半导体産能和自动化技术的资本支出将保持稳健，不仅能提高生産力，还 将支撑企业的盈利水平。 3、新兴市场受惠更有利宏观环境。弱美元、更低的利率及较低的油价，为新 兴市场在明年继续保持良好表现提供坚实条件。 4、中国增长继续向前。将中国经济增长预测上调至高 于市场平均，预期明年经济增长4.7%，2027年增长4.5%。随着近期贸 ...

扫码查看原文 【美国银行预计标普500指数明年温和上涨，提出潜在"双重打击"】12月4日，美国银行预计标普500指 数明年将温和上涨，目标价为7,100点。不过，该行也提出潜在的"双重打击"。该行美国股票与量化策 略主管Savita Subramanian指出，因消费者压力增大、人工智能发展速度放缓，未来一年需更谨慎。她 解释称，投资者今年花大量时间确定应持有哪些超大规模企业。该行更青睐人工智能"应用者"，但投资 收益显现可能尚需时日。此外，"我们还担心，人工智能'抢饭碗'与2026年消费保持韧性之间的矛盾。" 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和闭猎报 12.04 12:12:15 脚 美国银行:预计标普500明年涨至 7100点，提示双重风险 【美国银行预计标普500指数明年温和上涨,提出潜 在"双重打击"】12月4日,美国银行预计标普500 指数明年将温和上涨,目标价为7,100点。不过,该 行也提出潜在的"双重打击"。该行美国股票与量 化策略主管Savita Subramanian指出,因消费者压 力增大、人工智能发展速度放缓,未来一年需更谨 慎。她解释称,投资者今年花大量 ...

美国银行预计标普500指数明年将温和上涨，目标价为7,100点，但同时提出了潜在的"双重打击"。该行 美国股票与量化策略主管Savita Subramanian指出，由于消费者压力越来越大，以及人工智能(AI)的发展 速度放缓，未来一年应更加谨慎。她解释称，投资者今年花了很多时间试图弄清楚应该持有哪些超大规 模企业。该行更青睐人工智能"应用者"，但即便如此，投资这些企业带来的收益可能还需要一段时间才 能显现。"我们还担心，人工智能'抢饭碗'与2026年消费保持韧性之间的矛盾。" 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the article is that the global economy is expected to advance more robustly than investors anticipate by 2026, with stronger growth in the US and China, driven by AI investments and a rotation in market leadership [1][21] - Bank of America predicts that the US GDP growth will exceed market expectations, forecasting an annualized growth of 2.4% for 2026, supported by fiscal measures from the Inflation Reduction Act, restored incentives from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, favorable trade policies, strong business investment, and the lagging effects of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][23] - The macroeconomic fundamentals are not as weak as many investors believe, according to Bank of America [4][24] Group 2 - The AI investment cycle is expected to continue constructively, with capital expenditures related to data centers, chip manufacturing, and automation technologies significantly boosting GDP and remaining key growth drivers in 2026 [5][25] - Emerging markets are likely to benefit from a favorable macro environment, with a combination of a weaker dollar, declining US interest rates, and soft oil prices alleviating financing pressures and leading to increased capital inflows [6][26] - Bank of America expresses optimism about China's growth prospects, citing positive signals from recent trade negotiations and the gradual effectiveness of stimulus measures [8][28] Group 3 - The S&P 500 is projected to see a 14% increase in earnings per share (EPS) in 2026, but stock price growth is expected to be limited to 4% to 5%, with a target level set at 7100 points [9][29] - The decline in US Treasury yields may be more pronounced than expected, with predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield to be between 4% and 4.25% by the end of 2026, influenced by anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11][31] - US housing prices are expected to remain stable, with potential upward risks as mortgage rates decline alongside Federal Reserve rate cuts [13][34] Group 4 - Market volatility is anticipated to increase as investors gain clarity on how AI will reshape economic fundamentals, potentially leading to significant fluctuations across asset classes [15][35] - Private credit returns are expected to cool down, with total returns projected to drop from approximately 9% in 2025 to about 5.4% in 2026, prompting investors to consider high-yield bonds or other income-generating assets [17][37] - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, supported by ongoing supply constraints and improved global demand [19][39]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts limited upside for the U.S. stock market in 2026 after three consecutive years of double-digit returns, with the S&P 500 expected to close around 7100 points by the end of next year, reflecting a 4% increase from recent closing prices [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 16% year-to-date in 2025, following gains of over 23% in the previous two years [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 8000 points next year, while Morgan Stanley predicts 7800 points, and JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project 7500 and 7600 points respectively, indicating a potential for the index to achieve a fourth consecutive year of 10% or more returns [4] - A more optimistic scenario suggests that if corporate earnings significantly exceed market expectations, the S&P 500 could surge to 8500 points, a 24% increase from recent levels [4] Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - Current market liquidity remains abundant, but future trends may lean towards contraction rather than expansion, with reduced stock buybacks and increased capital expenditures [4] - Concerns exist regarding a potential "growth gap" in the AI sector, as significant investments in AI by large tech companies have yet to translate into profits [1] - Subramanian acknowledges the existence of bubble risks but believes a market crash is unlikely, citing lower stock allocation by investors compared to 2000 and a more tempered enthusiasm for speculative, unprofitable stocks [5]

Bank of America, UBS and Goldman are among global finance firms canceling festive celebrations in Hong Kong this month as a mark of respect for those killed in the city’s deadliest blaze in eight decades https://t.co/LNewloGXbj ...