根据公司公告，2025 年业绩大幅增长的主要原因之一为投资业绩高增，我们估计保险服务业绩或相对 稳定。投资端，2025 年下半年（尤其第四季度）公司优秀的投资表现有效对冲并弥补了上半年投资业 绩承压带来的不利影响。2025 年上半年，中国太平投资业绩为负，表现为投资亏损，为公司利润表现 带来一定压力。三季度时投资收益已有所修复，根据太平人寿三季报，前三季度太平人寿总投资收益同 比增长4%左右，带动税前利润同比增长18%。考虑到下半年归母净利润涨幅超700%，我们估计第四季 度投资收益表现非常强劲，带动全年投资业绩同比大幅增长。从投资结构看，截至1H25末，公司股票 和基金的配置比例合计为12.2%，2025 年下半年公司积极加仓权益，我们估计股票和基金配置比例有所 提升。 展望2026 年，行业负债端有望全面转向分红险。当前分红险的实际收益率在3%左右水平，已较为明显 地高出传统险（预定利率2%），在居民储蓄需求仍处于高位的背景下，储蓄性质较强的寿险产品仍具 有较强的吸引力，分红险有望在2026 年推动负债端保持有韧性的增长。公司分红险转型领先行业，经 验丰富，2025 年已基本形成以分红险为主的新单产品结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 26.56 billion and 27.40 billion HKD for 2025, with a substantial increase in the second half of the year, estimated to be between 19.80 billion and 20.64 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 723.1%-758.2% [1] - Adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 7.51 HKD (up 185.8%), 7.73 HKD (up 172.1%), and 7.93 HKD (up 143.3%) respectively [1] Group 2: Investment and Tax Policy Impact - The anticipated recovery in investment income and the impact of tax policy changes are expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is projected to rise by 18.4% from the beginning of the year, which, combined with the company's proactive stock allocation in the second half, is expected to improve investment service performance [1] - The company previously faced a substantial "unrecognized tax loss" of 8.774 billion HKD for 2024, with an estimated tax rate of 42%, which is notably higher than industry peers; the new tax policies are expected to positively affect net profit in 2025 [1] Group 3: Business Strategy and Market Conditions - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in new business value (NBV) for 2025, with a projected increase of 20% year-on-year, driven by strong customer demand for insurance savings [2] - The shift towards participating insurance products is anticipated to improve the cost of liabilities, with participating insurance accounting for 87.1% of the first-year premium in long-term insurance by the first half of 2025 [2] - Catalysts for growth include stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market [2]

盈利预测与投资建议：预计25-27 年EPS 分别7.5/6.2/7.0 港币/股，EV 法给予公司26 年H 股合理估值 0.55XPEV，对应合理价值31.73港币/股，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：新单销售不达预期，长端利率下降，人力规模下滑。 机构：广发证券 研究员：刘淇/陈福/唐关勇 公司发布2025 年业绩预增公告，归母净利润同比预增215%-225%。 低基数下投资业绩高增叠加递延所得税转回驱动全年业绩高增，超出市场预期。中国太平2025 年归母 净利润同比预增215%-225%，对应266-274 亿港元，2025H2 归母净利润为198-206 亿港元，同比预增 723%-758%，超出市场预期。公司业绩高增主因：一是公司25H2 业绩基数低于同业，叠加权益市场好 于去年同期驱动业绩高增。首先，中国太平2024 年业绩节奏与同业分化，24H2 公司归母净利润仅24 亿 港元，较24H1 的60 亿港元环比-60%，25H2 在低基数情况下受益下半年权益市场上行机遇，由此驱动 投资业绩好于同期；二是2024 年确认的"未确认税项亏损"转回，2025 年所得税费用一次性改善驱动业 绩高增。202 ...

1月19日，中国太平发布公告称，根据初步估算，集团截至2025年12月31日止年度（「2025年年度」）之股东应占溢 利预计与去年同期（「2024年年度」）相比增加约215%至225%。2024年年度的股东应占溢利为84.32亿港元。公司股 东应占溢利预计增加主要是因净投资业绩较2024年度有所提升，以及中国国家税务部门针对中国保险行业推出的新企 业所得税税收政策的一次性影响。 （中国太平） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 26.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 215%-225% compared to 2024, driven by improved investment performance and a one-time impact from tax policy changes [1][5]. - The strong investment performance in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, is expected to offset the negative impact from the first half of the year, where investment losses were recorded [2][5]. - A decrease in the effective tax rate is anticipated to further boost net profit, with the effective tax rate dropping to approximately 10.4% in the first half of 2025, compared to 42% in 2024 [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve resilient growth in its liability side, particularly through the promotion of participating insurance products, which are projected to attract strong demand in 2026 [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to HKD 7.40, HKD 3.48, and HKD 3.88 respectively, reflecting a significant upward adjustment due to favorable investment returns and tax rate reductions [5][13]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts gross premium income to increase from HKD 111.27 billion in 2024 to HKD 117.05 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 5.19% [11]. - Total investment income is expected to rise significantly from HKD 65.21 billion in 2024 to HKD 75.82 billion in 2025, marking an increase of 16.26% [11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach HKD 27.10 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of 221.36% from 2024 [11]. Valuation and Estimates - The target price of HKD 26 is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, reflecting a combination of intrinsic value and book value approaches [12][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 11.03 in 2024 to 3.08 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11]. Investment Strategy - The company is actively increasing its equity allocation, with the combined proportion of stocks and funds expected to rise from 12.2% as of mid-2025, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-risk, higher-return investments [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 31.73 per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected year-on-year growth of 215%-225% for 2025, translating to approximately HKD 266-274 billion [8]. - The strong performance is attributed to a low base effect and a reversal of deferred tax losses, which has driven the company's annual performance beyond market expectations [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 7.52, with subsequent years showing slight declines and recoveries [9][10]. Financial Projections - The company's intrinsic value is projected to be HKD 272,123 million in 2023, decreasing to HKD 234,224 million in 2024, before recovering to HKD 256,442 million in 2025 and continuing to grow to HKD 294,410 million by 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 27,014 million in 2025, before declining to HKD 22,389 million in 2026 and recovering to HKD 25,200 million in 2027 [2][10]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,485 million in 2023 to HKD 1,983 million in 2025, with a steady increase to HKD 2,276 million by 2027 [10]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's performance has outpaced the Hang Seng Index, with a notable increase of 723%-758% in net profit for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from favorable market conditions, particularly in the equity market, which is expected to drive investment performance [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the EV method to assign a reasonable valuation of 0.55 times PEV for the company, reflecting an improvement in operational quality and a potential recovery in valuation multiples [10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 3.03, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [12]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong earnings growth, favorable market conditions, and a solid valuation framework, supporting the "Buy" recommendation [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 215%-225% compared to 2024, with a remarkable increase of 723.1%-758.2% in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The substantial profit growth is attributed to improved investment performance and a one-time impact from new tax policies affecting corporate income tax for the insurance industry [3][1]. - The investment performance in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, is expected to be strong, compensating for the negative investment results in the first half of the year [2][1]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates total premium income to reach HKD 117,046 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.19% from 2024 [11]. - Total investment income is projected to increase significantly to HKD 75,816 million in 2025, marking an 83.87% increase from 2024 [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to HKD 27,096 million in 2025, representing a 221.36% increase compared to 2024 [11]. Tax Rate Impact - The effective tax rate is expected to decrease significantly to approximately 10.4% in the first half of 2025, contributing positively to the net profit growth [3][1]. - The clarity in tax policy is anticipated to support a low effective tax rate throughout 2025, potentially leading to an 80%-90% growth in pre-tax profit [3][1]. Liability Growth Outlook - The company is expected to see resilient growth in its liability side, particularly with the shift towards participating insurance products, which are projected to attract strong demand due to their higher actual yield compared to traditional insurance [4][1]. - The sales of participating insurance are expected to show good growth in 2026, supported by a favorable market environment and improved distribution channels [4][1]. Valuation Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to HKD 7.40, HKD 3.48, and HKD 3.88 respectively, reflecting adjustments of 216%, 24%, and 25% [5][13]. - The target price has been revised upwards to HKD 26 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping [7] Core Views - China Taiping is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [2][11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 28.60 per share, corresponding to a 2025 P/EV of 0.55 times [11] Financial Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to increase from HKD 107,489 million in 2023 to HKD 117,071 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [5] - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 26,982 million in 2025, representing a substantial growth of 220.0% [5] - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.63 in 2023 to 3.04 in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in valuation metrics [5] Investment Drivers - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market are identified as key catalysts for the company's performance [3] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise by 18.4% in 2025, which, combined with the company's proactive stock allocation, will enhance investment service performance [11] - The anticipated tax policy changes are expected to positively impact the company's net profit, particularly as the tax rate is projected to decrease from 42.2% in 2024 to a more competitive level [11][13] Business Outlook - The report forecasts a robust growth in the new business value (NBV) of life insurance, expected to increase by 20% in 2025, supported by strong customer demand for insurance savings products [11] - The shift towards dividend insurance products is expected to improve the cost of liabilities, further solidifying the profitability of policies [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping [7] Core Views - China Taiping is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to grow by 215%-225% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income and favorable tax policies [2][11] - The report anticipates a stable recovery in investment returns and a positive impact from tax policy changes, which will enhance the company's profitability [11] Financial Summary - **Insurance Service Revenue**: Expected to increase from 107,489 million HKD in 2023 to 117,071 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [5] - **Net Profit**: Projected to rise from 6,190 million HKD in 2023 to 26,982 million HKD in 2025, representing a staggering growth of 220.0% [5] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: Expected to decrease from 10.63 in 2023 to 3.04 in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in valuation [5] - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: Anticipated to remain stable around 0.76 for 2025 [5] Key Catalysts - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a recovery in the equity market are identified as key catalysts for the company's performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Taiping Insurance Holdings Limited is the first listed insurance company to announce a significant profit increase forecast for 2025, projecting a net profit growth of 215-225% compared to 2024, with estimates ranging from HKD 181.28 billion to HKD 189.72 billion [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The substantial profit increase is attributed to two main factors: steady improvement in net investment performance compared to 2024 and a one-time positive impact from new corporate income tax policies introduced by the tax authorities for the insurance industry [4]. - The announcement reflects positive signals in the market, indicating that leading insurance companies are experiencing accelerated profit elasticity due to a recovering capital market and supportive policies [4]. Group 2: Market Context - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the A-share market has seen a clear valuation recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising, which has directly enhanced the investment returns of insurance funds [4]. - In 2024, China Taiping's stock price increased by over 60%, providing strong support for its profit growth [4]. Group 3: Management Changes - As of the end of 2025, China Taiping announced management adjustments in its core business segments, with Wang Xuze appointed as the new Party Secretary and proposed General Manager of Taiping Life Insurance, bringing over 30 years of experience in the life insurance sector [5]. - Peng Yunping, a female executive from the 1970s, is proposed to be the General Manager of Taiping Property Insurance, succeeding Zhu Jie, who will no longer hold the position [5]. Group 4: Asset Management Developments - China Taiping continues to deepen its asset management strategy, with its subsidiary, Taiping Asset Management Co., Ltd., receiving approval to establish Taiping (Shenzhen) Private Securities Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., increasing the number of insurance-related private securities fund management companies to six [5]. - As of the end of 2024, the total asset scale of Taiping Asset Management surpassed RMB 1.5 trillion [6].