分析人士指出，由于上周末委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗被美国抓获，为能源巨头雪佛龙扩大在该产油国的业 务奠定了基础。雪佛龙是目前唯一在委内瑞拉开展业务的美国大型石油公司，而该国在马杜罗及其前任 查韦斯执政期间，与华盛顿的关系多年来一直处于动荡之中。摩根大通分析师在致客户的报告中指出， 新政府领导下对雪佛龙运营限制的放宽，可能会推高委内瑞拉的石油产量。另一家可能从扩大委内瑞拉 业务中获益的美国能源公司是康菲石油。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 盘前涨跌幅 ∨ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COP | 康菲石油 | (0) | 8.73% | | CVX | 雪佛龙 | | 8.31% | | XOM | 埃克森美孚 | | 3.38% | | APA | 阿帕奇石油 | | 2.80% | | 代码 | 名称 | | 盘前涨跌幅 √ | | HAL | 哈里伯顿 | 0) | 10.14% | | SLB | 斯伦贝谢 | | 9.45% | | BKR | Baker Hughes | | 7.34% | 美股油气股盘前集体大涨，其中，哈里伯顿涨超10%，斯伦贝谢涨超9%，雪佛龙、康菲石油涨 ...

地缘政治紧张态势以不确定性溢价的形式渗透到国际政治经济运行之中 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑｜苏琦 贵金属在2025年走出历史级牛市行情，委内瑞拉局势在2026年伊始的陡然升级，新的地缘政治风险使投 资者迅速涌向贵金属寻求避险，推动黄金和白银价格扭转此前跌势。2025年国际原油市场整体承压，油 价在全年交易中持续走弱，布伦特原油和美原油累计跌幅均接近20%，创下自2020年以来的最大年度跌 幅。布伦特原油已连续第三年下跌，形成有记录以来持续时间最长的年度连跌周期。 白宫已要求美国各大石油公司对委内瑞拉大量投资，修复委内瑞拉原油开采基础设施。据美媒报道，美 国官员最近数周告诉美国石油企业高管，如果他们"希望就被委内瑞拉政府没收的钻井平台、管道及其 他财产获得赔偿，就必须准备好现在重返委内瑞拉并大规模投资，振兴其遭重创的石油产业"。业内人 士对政府这一要求持审慎态度，他们担心重建委内瑞拉破败的油田前景不明，而且未来一段时间内委内 瑞拉政局也不明朗。 尽管美国总统特朗普押注委内瑞拉的石油，但短期内原油供应风险方向尚不明朗。莱斯大学贝克公共政 策研究所拉美能源政策主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪（Franc ...

20世纪末，委石油产业向外资重新开放，美国雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、康菲等石油企业进驻。查韦斯1999 年当选委总统，2007年要求开发委油田项目的外资企业须与委方油企合作，且项目须由委方控股。埃克 森美孚、康菲拒绝配合，随后撤出委市场。雪佛龙和其他一些外国油企则接受了相关政策，继续在委经 营业务。随着美国持续加码对委经济制裁，雪佛龙是目前唯一仍在运营委油田项目的美国大型油企。 美国务卿鲁比奥4日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司节目中说，将继续实施其所谓"石油隔离"手段，以施压委 内瑞拉改变政策，包括改变"石油产业管理方式"和"停止贩毒"。 在委内瑞拉的主要港口，大量原油和燃油等待装运出海。路透社援引消息人士的说法报道，委内瑞拉国 家石油公司用于稀释重油以便装运的稀释剂也严重短缺，不得不陆续关闭一些油田和钻井平台，同时对 旗下子公司以及外资合营企业提出削减产量要求。不过，相关合资企业对这一说法未予证实。 委内瑞拉已探明石油储量超过3000亿桶，约占全球储量的17%，排名第一，主产重质原油，多集中于该 国中部的奥里诺科地区。按照美国能源部的说法，重油生产成本高于轻质原油，但技术上相对简单。20 世纪70年代，委内瑞拉政府正式将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. leading to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has prompted a reevaluation of control over Venezuela's oil industry, presenting both opportunities and risks for foreign investors, particularly in the context of a potential pro-U.S. government [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The geopolitical shift in Venezuela may allow for a reconstruction of its energy sector, which has been in decline for years, potentially benefiting companies like Chevron if a supportive government emerges [1][3]. - Venezuela's oil production has plummeted from a peak of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to about 950,000 barrels per day currently, with exports around 550,000 barrels per day, indicating a significant market opportunity for international firms capable of investment and technological upgrades [3][6]. Group 2: Short-term Supply Risks - Concerns about short-term supply disruptions are primarily linked to uncertainties in the commercial payment chain, as buyers may halt transactions due to unclear authority in Venezuela [4]. - Despite these concerns, Chevron is expected to maintain an export volume of 150,000 barrels per day, which is crucial for alleviating supply pressures in the market [4]. Group 3: Long-term Recovery Challenges - The recovery of Venezuela's oil industry faces severe challenges due to decades of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure, requiring annual capital injections of at least $10 billion and a stable security environment for any meaningful turnaround [2][6]. - Experts warn that even with a change in government, significant investment and time will be necessary to restore the oil sector, making immediate increases in production unlikely [6].

Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Nicolás Maduro forces investors to reassess control over Venezuela's oil resources and the potential for recovery in the country's oil industry after decades of decline [1] Group 1: Control and Operations - The state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), controls the vast majority of the country's oil production and reserves [1] - Chevron operates in Venezuela through independent production and joint ventures with PDVSA [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Experts warn that any regime change could disrupt the commercial chain of Venezuela's oil supply [1] - The current uncertainty regarding power dynamics may lead buyers to pause purchases due to confusion over payment recipients, potentially resulting in a complete halt of oil exports [1] Group 3: Sanctions Impact - Recent U.S. sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" have severely impacted Venezuela's oil exports, forcing the country to cut production [1]

2026年才开年，全球资产市场就迎来双重重要变量：南美地缘政治风险与OPEC+核心成员国的产量共识，或对油 价、金价、美元、美股等核心全球资产价格形成差异化、多维度冲击，短期情绪驱动与长期基本面重构的博弈贯穿 市场。 委内瑞拉地缘风险影响几何？ 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，于2023年，委内瑞拉已探明原油储量居于世界首位，越达3,030亿桶，约占全 球储量的17%，见下图。 尽管储量巨大，但美国能源信息署的数据显示，2023年委内瑞拉的原油产量仅占全球总产量的0.8%。该国的大部分 已探明石油储量属于奥利诺科带的超重质原油，开采需要更高水平的技术能力。 在美国对委实施禁令之前，美国是委内瑞拉原油的最大进口国，其重质原油非常适合美国炼油厂，尤其墨西哥湾沿 岸的炼油厂，其余大部分原油则销往印度、中国和欧洲。自2019年美国对其实施全面禁令后，委内瑞拉很大一部分 原油出口都属于石油换贷款安排，也就是用原油抵偿债务。 美国能源信息署的同一份报告显示，截至2023年，委内瑞拉拥有195万亿立方英尺的巨大天然气储量，占南美天然气 总储量的73%，该国的大部分天然气储量为伴生气，大约八成的天然气来自石油开采过程。委 ...

Core Viewpoint - A former top Chevron executive, Ali Moshiri, is raising $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects following the U.S. capturing its leader Nicolas Maduro and President Donald Trump's statements regarding Washington's involvement [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Ali Moshiri, previously a high-ranking executive at Chevron, is spearheading efforts to secure $2 billion for oil projects in Venezuela [1] - The initiative comes in the context of significant political changes in Venezuela, particularly the U.S. capturing of Nicolas Maduro [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The Venezuelan oil industry is poised for potential investment opportunities as political dynamics shift, particularly with U.S. involvement [1] - The announcement reflects a broader trend of foreign investment interest in Venezuelan oil, which has been historically impacted by political instability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has revised its annual production guidance down to 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounces from the previous estimate of 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces due to operational challenges faced in the December quarter [2]. Group 1: Production Guidance - The revised production guidance reflects isolated operational events that occurred late in the December quarter, which have now been largely rectified [2]. - The company is positioned to deliver a second half production of 871,000 to 971,000 ounces [2]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - The company will provide December quarter costs along with quarterly results on January 22nd, and will also outline the full year cost guidance [3]. - Confidence in the underlying asset portfolio remains strong, and appreciation is expressed towards the teams for their prompt and safe response to recent operational impacts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Nicolás Maduro has intensified scrutiny on Venezuela's oil industry, prompting investors to reevaluate control over the country's crude resources and the potential for revival after years of decline [1] Group 1: Control and Production - Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, maintains majority control over oil production and reserves in Venezuela [2] - Chevron operates in Venezuela through its own production and a joint venture with PDVSA, while Russian and Chinese firms also have partnerships, but PDVSA retains majority control [2] - Venezuela's oil output peaked at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997, but has since fallen to an estimated 950,000 barrels per day, with around 550,000 barrels per day exported [3] Group 2: Potential Changes and Impacts - A shift to a more pro-U.S. and pro-investment government could position Chevron favorably to expand its role in Venezuela's oil sector, with European companies like Repsol and Eni also likely to benefit [4] - Any regime change could disrupt the commercial chain for Venezuelan oil exports, leading to potential halts in exports as buyers may be uncertain about payment channels [5] - The shadow fleet, which includes tankers operating outside traditional systems, has been crucial for transporting oil from Venezuela amidst U.S. sanctions [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the uncertainty, Chevron is expected to continue exporting 150,000 barrels per day, which may limit immediate supply impacts, although broader uncertainty could introduce a short-term risk premium of about $3 per barrel [6] - The oil market is currently trending towards oversupply, with analysts suggesting that the immediate impact of Venezuelan developments is minimal [7] - The long-term recovery of Venezuela's oil industry faces significant challenges due to decades of neglect, requiring substantial investments estimated at $10 billion annually to rehabilitate infrastructure [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. foreign policy under President Trump regarding Venezuela appears to prioritize commercial interests, particularly access to the country's significant oil reserves, rather than purely humanitarian or justice-related motives [2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Foreign Policy and Oil Interests - Richard Haass indicated that Trump's decision to intervene in Venezuela is heavily focused on securing access to oil, with Trump mentioning Venezuela's oil reserves "83 times" during a press conference [2]. - The Trump administration is expected to facilitate investments from American oil companies to restore Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has suffered from years of mismanagement and sanctions [2][4]. - Haass described the U.S. foreign policy under Trump as uniquely transactional, emphasizing that commercial interests are paramount in decision-making [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - U.S. oil and gas companies with exposure to Venezuela experienced significant stock price increases, with Chevron Corp. rising by 10.36% and Halliburton Co. increasing by 14.19% [7]. - Valero Energy Corp., which has refineries well-suited for Venezuelan crude oil, saw its stock rally by 9.19% [8]. - The SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF also showed positive movement, up 2.14% on Friday and an additional 1.66% overnight [8].