金十数据6月16日讯，中金公司发表报告，将快手(01024.HK)目标价调高21%至80港元，投资评级为"跑 赢同业"。中金指，快手AI影片产业领导者，具备估价溢价，快手AI叙事逐步跑通。考虑到可灵自身在 AI视讯工具的技术、商业化领先性及其对快手电筒广告生态未来可赋能点，该行认为独立拆分可灵估 值约为60亿美元。中金维持对快手盈利预测，目前股价对应12/10倍2025/26年Non—IFRS市盈率。 中金：上调快手目标价21%至80港元 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift from traditional lead generation methods to a new "private messaging" approach in the lead industry, spearheaded by Kuaishou's initiatives [2][3][4] - Kuaishou's "Hello! New Private Messaging" conference introduced solutions aimed at enhancing customer acquisition efficiency through AI-driven private messaging tools [2][6] Group 1: Private Messaging Solutions - Kuaishou's private messaging allows businesses to establish trust and communication with consumers through chat, making it a preferred choice for long-cycle, high-decision industries [2][4] - The platform supports various content formats, including short videos and live broadcasts, enhancing user engagement without overwhelming them [3][4] - The number of active customers using commercial private messaging has increased 18 times over the past year, indicating a significant shift in user preference [4][5] Group 2: Business Impact - Private messaging has shown to increase exposure by 30% compared to traditional forms, with a 16 percentage point higher call connection rate [4] - Businesses utilizing private messaging have experienced a 74% increase in lead retention rates and a 21% reduction in conversion costs [4][5] - Kuaishou's private messaging consumption has surged 22 times, with daily peaks exceeding 16 million [4][5] Group 3: AI Integration - Kuaishou is leveraging AI to enhance private messaging capabilities, introducing a digital employee named "π" to assist businesses with customer service challenges [6] - The digital employee can provide personalized responses based on user profiles, improving lead conversion rates [6] - Businesses have reported significant improvements in conversion rates and cost reductions after implementing Kuaishou's private messaging solutions [6][7] Group 4: Support Initiatives - Kuaishou launched the "Golden Sail Plan," committing 2 billion in support traffic to help businesses capture new lead opportunities [7] - The plan includes benefits for new customers, advanced services for established businesses, and advertising support [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of live-streaming e-commerce platforms, particularly Kuaishou, has significantly contributed to job creation and provided new employment opportunities, especially for young people [4][5][6]. Group 1: Employment Impact - Kuaishou has created 43.2 million job opportunities, with 23 million directly through the platform and 20.2 million indirectly through related industries [4]. - The platform's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) increase of 1 billion yuan can generate approximately 1,200 jobs [4]. - The rise of new professions related to live-streaming, such as online anchors and live recruitment specialists, reflects the platform's influence on the job market [4][5]. Group 2: Youth Employment Opportunities - The platform has introduced 174 new job types, expanding the career options available to young people, with 90% of youth viewing these new professions positively [5]. - Kuaishou plans to release over 50 internship positions for college students in various technical fields, aiming to cultivate 10 million skilled professionals in new occupations over the next three years [5][6]. Group 3: Innovative Recruitment Methods - Kuaishou's "Kuaipin" platform has transformed traditional recruitment by connecting blue-collar workers with high-demand manufacturing jobs through live-streaming, enhancing job matching efficiency [6][7]. - The platform has seen over 250 million users seeking job opportunities monthly, indicating a robust demand for its innovative recruitment approach [6][7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 1.8% [1] - Xpeng Motors and Kuaishou both dropped over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Minglue Technology, a leading data intelligence application software company, is facing significant challenges despite its previous successes and is now preparing for an IPO after a failed attempt last year [1][8]. - Minglue Technology was founded in 2006 and is recognized as the largest intelligent data application software provider in China as of 2023, focusing on transforming enterprise marketing and operational strategies through data intelligence [2][3]. - The company's main products include multi-modal data integration, insights, and AI-driven decision-making capabilities, with its marketing intelligence segment featuring the "MiaoZhen System," which connects with over 4,700 media platforms for advertising monitoring [3]. Group 2 - Minglue Technology has attracted significant investment from notable firms, raising over $627 million, with major shareholders including Tencent (27.33% ownership) and Sequoia China (7.52% ownership) [4]. - The company's valuation has drastically decreased from approximately $3.051 billion in December 2020 to $1.666 billion by March 2024, representing a nearly 45.4% decline [5]. - Despite a slight revenue increase from 1.269 billion RMB in 2022 to 1.462 billion RMB in 2023, the revenue fell to 1.381 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in operational intelligence business income and a strategic shift in marketing intelligence [6]. Group 3 - The company's profitability has significantly declined, with net profit dropping from 1.638 billion RMB in 2022 to 7.949 million RMB in 2024, influenced by changes in the fair value of financial instruments [7]. - Research and development expenditures have also decreased, falling from 751 million RMB in 2022 (59.2% of total revenue) to 353 million RMB in 2024 (25.6% of total revenue), indicating potential financial strain [7]. - As the company approaches its IPO, it faces critical questions about its future strategy in a cooling capital market, emphasizing the need for solid revenue conversion to support its "AI + big data" narrative [8].

日前，微信、快手宣布，下架部分违规微短剧剧目，对违规剧集相关发布账号永久封禁。 快手表示，平台将持续加强微短剧的审核及巡查力度，严厉打击宣扬不良价值观、色情低俗、血腥暴力、格调低下、审美恶俗等违规内容的微短剧，坚决 抵制违规剧"换马甲"传播行为，严查片名哗众取宠、低俗庸俗的违规现象。 微短剧既要立规矩也要找出路 打击违规微短剧 微信、快手出手 9日，微信珊瑚安全发布的《关于违规微短剧类小程序的处置公告（2025年6月）》指出：近期，平台通过巡查审核发现，部分微短剧存在不良价值观导向 内容或存在侵权等行为。根据国家相关法律法规要求以及《腾讯微信软件许可服务协议》《微信小程序运营规范》的相关规定，平台下架了近百部违规微 短剧，其中包含部分导向不良、剧情猎奇故意渲染"爽点"、隐晦色情诱导类的剧目，对存在违规行为的小程序也进行了处置。 部分违规剧目公示： 部分违规小程序公示： | 小程序名称 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 久**院 | 欢**我 | 天**场 | | 至**长 | 声**慢 | 目**场 | | **场 | 悦**院 | 久**院 | 后续，微信将持续引导微短剧类小程序规范发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kuaishou's Keling AI technology is globally leading, with commercial performance exceeding expectations and potential for both short-term revenue contribution and long-term growth [1][2] - Keling AI generated over RMB 150 million in revenue in Q1 2025, with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding USD 100 million as of March 2025 [1] - The monthly paid amount for Keling AI exceeded RMB 100 million in both April and May 2025, indicating strong revenue growth and positioning among global video generation models [1] Group 2 - Keling AI 2.0 was launched in April 2025, showcasing significant upgrades in dynamic quality, semantic response, and visual aesthetics, maintaining a global leadership position [2] - Keling AI's collaboration with NetEase's popular game "Nirvana in Fire" opens new commercial pathways by allowing players to convert static images into dynamic visuals [2] - The partnership enhances social gameplay within the game and expands Keling AI's commercial opportunities in the gaming sector [2] Group 3 - Kuaishou's main business remains robust, with domestic user engagement leading the market, and the company achieving operational profit in overseas markets for the first time in Q1 2025 [3] - Daily active users (DAU) reached 408 million, marking a record high, while the company continues to lower user acquisition costs and improve user retention through content enrichment [3] - Overseas revenue grew by 37.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.3 billion, reflecting effective cost control measures [3] Group 4 - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, maintaining a buy rating due to the long-term competitive advantage of its video models [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 143.9 billion and RMB 158.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit expectations lowered to RMB 20.3 billion and RMB 23.9 billion [4] - The company’s valuation shows significant recovery potential, with a projected PE ratio of 11x for 2025 and 10x for 2026, compared to peer companies like Tencent and NetEase [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kuaishou-W (01024) with a target price of HKD 63 [1] Core Insights - Kuaishou's subsidiary, Keling AI, has achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding USD 100 million as of March, with monthly payments surpassing RMB 100 million in April and May, indicating that the run rate is expected to exceed both company guidance and market expectations [1] - The report projects that Keling AI's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 will exceed USD 120 million, with continued rapid growth anticipated thereafter [1]

Group 1 - Kuaishou's commercial private messaging daily consumption peak has exceeded 16 million [1] - The number of active customers for the private messaging product has increased 18 times over the past year [1] - The private messaging service is favored by businesses in long-cycle and medium-to-heavy decision-making industries such as franchise, automotive, and local life services [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kuaishou Technology with a 12-month price target of HK$63.00, indicating an upside potential of 15.6% from the current price of HK$54.50 [1][12]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Kling AI has surpassed expectations with an Annualized Revenue Run Rate (ARR) exceeding US$100 million as of March 2025, and monthly subscription bookings exceeding RMB100 million (approximately US$14 million) in April and May [1][3]. - The launch of Kling 2.1 has significantly reduced costs, making it more competitive in the market, with per video costs dropping to US$0.27-0.47, which is 60-80% lower than the previous version [2][32]. - The revenue outlook for FY25 has been raised to US$100 million, with potential for further upside due to expanding use cases and increased promotional budgets [3][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou Technology are as follows: - FY24: RMB 126.9 billion - FY25: RMB 140.7 billion - FY26: RMB 153.7 billion - FY27: RMB 165.8 billion [6][16]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 27.1 billion in FY24 to RMB 40.5 billion in FY27, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][16]. - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 4.02 in FY25 to RMB 5.87 in FY27, reflecting a positive earnings outlook [6][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Kling AI has captured approximately 30% of the video generation AI model market, outpacing competitors like Runway and Google's Veo 2 as of May 2025 [20][23]. - The revenue mix for Kling AI indicates that 70% comes from 2C/2P subscription revenue, primarily from professional content creators, while 30% is derived from 2B API calling revenue [26][32]. - The company is focusing on expanding its user base, particularly in overseas markets, leveraging its technological advantages and improving user experience [23][32]. Valuation and Comparison - Kuaishou is currently trading at a forward P/E of 10X, which reflects its core video platform and advertising/eCommerce business, while Kling AI is expected to justify a premium valuation due to its growth potential [18][19]. - Comparatively, leading AI startups have ARR and valuations that suggest significant growth potential, with Kling AI's estimated ARR for FY25 at US$124 million [21][19].