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Core Viewpoint - Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) is currently viewed as a better value opportunity compared to Moody's (MCO) based on various financial metrics and analyst outlooks [1]. Valuation Metrics - GHLD has a forward P/E ratio of 8.23, significantly lower than MCO's forward P/E of 32.19, indicating that GHLD may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for GHLD is 0.77, while MCO's PEG ratio stands at 2.58, suggesting that GHLD has a more favorable earnings growth outlook relative to its valuation [5]. - GHLD's P/B ratio is 0.65, contrasting sharply with MCO's P/B ratio of 20.51, further supporting the argument that GHLD is undervalued [6]. Analyst Outlook - GHLD holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while MCO has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a less favorable outlook [3]. - The solid earnings outlook for GHLD, combined with its favorable valuation metrics, positions it as the superior value option compared to MCO [6].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's decision to downgrade Thailand's rating outlook from stable to negative reflects the risks of further weakening in the country's economic and fiscal strength [1] Economic Impact - The downgrade indicates concerns regarding Thailand's economic performance and its ability to maintain fiscal stability [1] Fiscal Strength - The negative outlook suggests potential challenges in Thailand's fiscal management and overall financial health moving forward [1]

Core Insights - Moody's reported an 8% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and a 14% rise in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $3.83, exceeding Wall Street estimates [1] - However, the company revised its full-year profit guidance downward, contributing to a 19% decline in its stock from the 52-week high amid economic uncertainties [2] Financial Performance - The company has a strong financial analytics technology platform, benefiting from a trend where corporations and institutions outsource parts of their investing workflow [3] - Moody's experienced robust demand for cloud-based subscriptions and data licensing, starting fiscal 2025 with strong performance [4] - The Moody's Investor Service segment saw an 8% year-over-year revenue increase due to momentum in global bond issuances and favorable market conditions [6] - Moody's Analytics group reported a 9% increase in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) and a 93% retention rate, indicating durable growth [7] - The adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, and the company increased its dividend by 11% to $0.94 per share, yielding 0.9% [8] Outlook and Guidance - Moody's faces challenges from a rapidly evolving operating environment, particularly due to recent changes in U.S. trade policy that may disrupt the economy [9] - A slowdown in global debt issuances could impact the credit ratings business and limit growth opportunities, leading to a tempered full-year growth and earnings outlook [10] - The revenue growth estimate for 2025 was revised from high single digits to mid-single digits, and adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to a range of $13.25 to $14 [11] - Despite solid fundamentals, the stock's valuation premium is difficult to justify, trading at a P/E ratio of 38, above the five-year average of around 35 [12] Investment Perspective - Current shareholders may find enough strong points to hold, but investors on the sidelines may discover better value and upside potential elsewhere in the market [14]

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1,924 million, a 7.7% increase from $1,786 million in Q1 2024[15] - Operating income rose to $846 million, up 5.6% from $801 million year-over-year[15] - Net income attributable to Moody's increased to $625 million, compared to $577 million in the same period last year, reflecting an 8.3% growth[15] - Earnings per share (EPS) for basic shares was $3.47, up from $3.16, representing a 9.8% increase[15] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of $685 million for Q1 2025, compared to $536 million in Q1 2024, an increase of 27.8%[18] - Adjusted Operating Income for Q1 2025 was $994 million, up from $906 million in Q1 2024, representing a 9.7% increase[211] - Adjusted Operating Margin for Q1 2025 was 51.7%, compared to 50.7% in Q1 2024[211] - Operating Income for Q1 2025 was $846 million, an increase from $801 million in Q1 2024[211] - Diluted EPS increased by 10% to $3.46, compared to $3.15 in Q1 2024[126] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $15,096 million from $15,505 million at the end of 2024, a decline of 2.6%[21] - Total liabilities decreased to $11,238 million from $11,778 million, a reduction of 4.6%[21] - As of March 31, 2024, Moody's total shareholders' equity was $3,735 million, an increase from $3,476 million at December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 7.5%[26] - Total debt stood at $7,694 million as of March 31, 2025, with a carrying value of $7,428 million after accounting for discounts and issuance costs[90] - The estimated fair value of total debt increased to $6,823 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $6,026 million at December 31, 2024[96] Cash Flow - Net cash provided by operating activities was $757 million, slightly down from $775 million in Q1 2024[23] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 were $2,139 million, down from $2,408 million at the end of 2024, a decrease of 11.2%[21] - Cash provided by investing activities increased by $320 million, primarily due to a $514 million increase in net sales and maturities of investments[193] - The company expects to have positive operating cash flow over the next twelve months[207] Revenue Segments - The company operates in two reportable segments: MA (Moody's Analytics) and MIS (Moody's Investors Service), focusing on integrated risk assessment and credit ratings respectively[32][34] - The MA segment generated total external revenue of $859 million, up 7.5% from $799 million in the prior year[42] - Corporate Finance (CFG) revenue within the MIS segment rose to $564 million, reflecting a 6.63% increase from $529 million in the same quarter last year[42] - Total ratings revenue reached $1,056 million, representing an 8% increase from $979 million in the prior year[42] - Total external revenue from the United States was $1,065 million, up from $969 million in 2024, while total non-U.S. revenue increased to $859 million from $817 million[112] Restructuring and Expenses - The company incurred restructuring charges of $33 million in Q1 2025, significantly higher than $5 million in Q1 2024[15] - The Strategic and Operational Efficiency Restructuring Program is expected to generate annualized savings of $250 million to $300 million, with a completion target by the end of 2026[77] - The restructuring program incurred total expenses of $33 million in Q1 2025, with cumulative expenses reaching $78 million[78] - Compensation expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2025, totaled $642 million, compared to $609 million in the same period of 2024[108] Tax and Dividends - The effective tax rate (ETR) for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was 22.3%, a decrease from 23.3% in the prior year, primarily due to increased excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation[53] - Moody's declared dividends of $0.85 per share in 2024, totaling $155 million, while in 2025, the dividend increased to $0.94 per share, totaling $171 million[29] Share Repurchase and Stock Options - The company has approximately $1.2 billion remaining under the $1.5 billion share repurchase authority approved on October 15, 2024[205] - The company granted 0.1 million employee stock options with a weighted average grant date fair value of $163.59 per share during the first quarter of 2025[50] Other Financial Metrics - The company recognized a net increase of $7 million in its unrecognized tax position (UTP) reserves during the first quarter of 2025[54] - The amortization expense for acquired intangible assets was $53 million for Q1 2025, compared to $49 million in Q1 2024[76] - The company reported a net customer relationships value of $1,475 million as of March 31, 2025, an increase from $1,404 million at the end of 2024[76]

穆迪的旗舰信贷风险模型解决方案EDF-X与MSCI的私募信贷投资数据库相结合，将为私募信贷投资提 供专有的第三方风险评估，适用于底层标的公司和信贷层面的评估，并通过透明的指标呈现。 记者4月22日从MSCI获悉，MSCI与穆迪公司将携手推出首个针对私募信贷投资的独立风险评估解决方 案。 MSCI将提供一个独特且全面的私募资本数据库，其数据来自基金管理人提供的原始文件，涵盖超过 2800只私募信贷基金及14000多家底层投资企业。作为此次合作的一部分，穆迪将融合其旗舰模型EDF- X至MSCI的私募信贷解决方案中。EDF-X旨在通过信贷模型及早期预警信号，为投资者提供风险洞 察，助力他们评估全球上市公司及私营企业的财务韧性。 MSCI董事长兼首席执行官亨利.费南德斯(Henry Fernandez)表示："私募信贷的快速发展正在持续重塑全 球投资格局，同时凸显了市场对于提升透明度、构建统一标准，以及引入独立风险评估的需求。我们很 高兴能与穆迪携手推出这一创新解决方案以提升清晰度和信心。"(经济日报记者徐胥) 穆迪总裁兼首席执行官罗布.福伯(Rob Fauber)表示："随着私募信贷市场的发展，投资者正在寻求可信 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record revenue of $1.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 8% year-over-year [12][36] - Adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, an increase of 100 basis points from the previous year [12][36] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% to $3.83 [12][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) revenue grew 8% with issuance growth of 9%, achieving quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion [12][36] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue was $859 million, also up 8%, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of 9% [36][37] - Decision Solutions within MA saw ARR growth of 12%, driven by KYC, insurance, and banking solutions [37][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private credit was a significant contributor to growth, with 143 private credit-related deals in Q1 2025, up from 69 in Q1 2024 [13][14] - Data center debt issuance reached $4 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand for financing in digital infrastructure [16][17] - Economic losses from extreme weather events in Q1 2025 were reported at $83 billion, above the 21st-century average [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its earnings power and market position amidst economic volatility [11][28] - Investments in AI and digital transformation are central to the company's strategy, with a focus on generative AI to drive growth and efficiency [22][23] - A partnership with MSCI aims to provide independent risk assessments for private credit investments, enhancing transparency in the market [31][123] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and economic conditions, leading to a more conservative guidance approach [28][44] - The company expects a decrease in MIS rated issuance for 2025, projecting low to high single-digit declines [46][48] - Despite short-term challenges, management remains confident in the long-term demand for their solutions driven by deep market currents [30][55] Other Important Information - The company maintains a strong financial profile and plans to return at least $1.3 billion to shareholders in 2025 [54] - Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 is set between $13.25 and $14, representing a 9% growth at the midpoint [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through your assumptions around what acquisitions were included in the prior guidance versus now? - No change in M&A assumptions with respect to MA revenue guidance; CAPE Analytics was already included [58][59] Question: What were the key assumptions that were made in terms of M&A volume? - Adjusted M&A growth expectations down to 15% from 50% due to trade policy uncertainty [65] Question: How sensitive are Research and Insights and Data and Information to current macro trends? - Research and Insights growth is mainly from CreditView; Data and Information faced slower growth due to government attrition [68][71] Question: Can you explain the guidance for a decrease in issuance versus flat to increased revenue growth for 2025? - Annual pricing initiatives and a positive mix shift are expected to support revenue despite decreased issuance [74][75] Question: Can you elaborate on the costs and efficiency program? - The efficiency program is generating gains, with expectations for MA margins to ramp into the mid-30s range by Q4 [80][81] Question: How do Fed rate cuts impact your issuance outlook? - Rate cuts present mixed effects; decelerating economic growth could negatively impact issuance despite lower rates [87] Question: What is the revenue model for the partnership with MSCI? - The revenue model has not been disclosed, but there is significant demand for rigorous third-party credit assessments in the private credit market [121][122] Question: What is the outlook for first-time mandates? - First-time mandates are expected to continue growing, particularly in the private credit market [128][129] Question: Are tariffs driving demand for KYC solutions? - Tariffs may drive demand for KYC and supply chain risk solutions, with a new corporate platform launched to address these needs [132]

Core Insights - Moody's reported strong first-quarter results for 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations in both earnings and revenue [1][2] - The company achieved an adjusted EPS of $3.83, surpassing the expected $3.52, and revenue of $1.924 billion, slightly above the anticipated $1.875 billion [1][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q1 2025 was $3.83, a 13.7% increase from Q1 2024's $3.37 [3] - Revenue grew 8% year-over-year, with Q1 2025 revenue at $1.924 billion compared to $1.786 billion in Q1 2024 [3] - Operating margin was 44.0%, down from 44.8% in the previous year [3] - Adjusted free cash flow decreased by 3.6% to $672 million from $697 million in Q1 2024 [3] Business Segments - Moody's operates through two main segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA) [4] - MA reported Q1 revenue of $859 million, an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by 11% growth in Decision Solutions [6] - MIS achieved record-high quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, also an 8% increase, supported by strong corporate and structured finance performance [6] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses rose by 9% year-over-year, influenced by investments, restructuring charges, and M&A costs [7] - The company incurred $33 million in charges related to its Strategic and Operational Efficiency Restructuring program [7] Strategic Initiatives - Moody's is focused on expanding integrated risk solutions and adopting advanced technologies like AI and cloud-based models [5][8] - The company is also pursuing sustainability and geographic expansion, particularly in emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America [8] Shareholder Returns - Moody's announced an increased quarterly dividend of $0.94 per share, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous year [9] - The company has approximately $1.2 billion in share repurchase authority remaining as of March 31, 2025 [9] Future Outlook - Management forecasts full-year adjusted EPS to range from $13.25 to $14 for fiscal 2025 [11] - Anticipated revenue growth in both segments is expected to be in the high-single-digit percentage range for MA and mid-to-high-single-digit for MIS [11] - Operating expenses are projected to increase in the low-to-mid-single-digit percent range in 2025 [11]

Moody's (MCO) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.83 per share, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.56. The bottom line grew 14% from the year-ago quarter figure.Shares of MCO lost 1% in pre-market trading as it lowered the 2025 guidance on “market volatility.” Robust global bond issuance volumes and steady demand for analytics supported Moody’s results. The company’s liquidity position was strong during the quarter. However, an increase in operating expenses posed a headwind.A ...