Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the impact of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, stating that it is a lagging indicator [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios over the past decade [1] - The downgrade has raised investor concerns about a potential economic recession, as highlighted by a Democratic senator's comments [1] Group 2 - A factor contributing to market volatility is a bill under consideration in Congress that would make Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, potentially increasing federal debt by trillions [2] - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock index futures indicated a potential decline of about 1% at market open [2] - China's Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to adopt responsible policy measures to maintain the stability of the international economic and financial system [2]

Market Reaction to Moody's Downgrade - The Nasdaq and other major US indices experienced a decline of over 1% following Moody's downgrade of US debt due to the rising budget deficit, but stocks rebounded quickly, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2][9] - The swift recovery from bad news suggests that if negative news cannot significantly impact stock prices, the market may perform even better in the absence of news [2][9] Historical Precedents and Current Trends - A comparison of the current Nasdaq performance with the late 1990s shows a close correlation, with the Nasdaq rising 74.18% over 617 days, while the 90s example rose 93.42% in the same timeframe, indicating a potential continuation of growth in the tech sector [3][5] - The performance of individual AI companies such as Broadcom, Microsoft, and CoreWeave suggests that the growth phase in the AI sector may just be beginning [5] S&P 500 Index Performance - The S&P 500 Index surged over 19% in just 27 days following improved trade relations between the US and China, which is significantly higher than the historical average return of approximately 10% [6] - Historical data indicates that since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has been higher one year later 100% of the time when it gains more than 19% in 27 trading days, suggesting a strong likelihood of continued upward movement [7]

2025.05. 19 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 此前，标准普尔于2011年8月将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+，惠誉评级也于2023年8月将美国评级从 AAA下调至AA+。 目前，全球三大评级机构对美国的主权信用评级保持一致，均给予美国第二高评级。 作者 | 第一财经 葛唯尔 国际评级机构穆迪（Moody's Ratings）调降美国信用评级后，"卖出美国"交易似再有抬头。 对特朗普政府关税政策和美国债台高筑的担忧引发了投资者对美国国债是否仍是全球投资者避险资产 的质疑。 截至记者发稿前，30年期美国国债收益率上涨超过12个基点，至5.02%。10年期美国国债收益率上 涨10个基点，至4.54%。与此同时，2年期美国国债收益率上涨超过2个基点，达到4%。 根据机构Tullett Prebon的数据，30年期美国国债收益率上一次突破5%的盘中高点是在4月15日， 当时达到5.002%。如果当地时间19日的收益率收于该水平上方，这将是自2023年10月31日达到 5.022%之后的首次。 美股盘前，道指期指跌近300点，标普500指数和纳指期指的跌幅分别在1.1%和1.5%。芝加哥期权 交易所波动率 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and rising U.S. debt have led investors to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe haven asset for global investors [1][3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][4] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 12 basis points to 5.02%, while the 10-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.54% [1] Group 2 - The House Budget Committee approved Trump's tax and spending proposal, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt trends [4] - Moody's indicated that the current fiscal proposals are unlikely to lead to significant long-term reductions in spending and deficits [4] - The proportion of mandatory spending, including interest payments, is projected to rise from approximately 73% in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [4] Group 3 - Despite heightened risk aversion, some analysts believe Moody's downgrade will not have a lasting impact on the market, as it was largely anticipated [5] - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by five-year CDS rates, slightly increased to 55 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" reflects concerns over the growing debt burden and interest payment ratio, leading to a decline in investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [1][3][4] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating follows similar actions by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, resulting in the loss of the AAA rating from all three major credit agencies [1][3] - The downgrade has led to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield rising to 4.521% [1][3] Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - Analysts emphasize that the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy will impact Treasury pricing and investment value, with a focus on the increasing budget deficit and debt levels [2][4] - Moody's projects that by 2035, U.S. federal debt could reach 134% of GDP, with the deficit potentially rising to 9% of GDP, indicating a concerning fiscal trajectory [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The market has shown a negative feedback loop characterized by falling prices, selling pressure, and increased risk aversion among domestic and international investors [1][4] - Some investors, particularly from overseas, are diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. Treasuries, as evidenced by China's reduction of its Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Treasury market is at a critical juncture, with potential for increased volatility due to rising inflation risks and uncertain fiscal policies [8][9] - Investment strategies are shifting towards safer assets, with expectations that U.S. Treasuries may outperform riskier assets in the near term [8][9]

美联储博斯蒂克：穆迪下调评级将影响整个经济和金融市场。 ...

智通财经5月19日电，美联储博斯蒂克表示，穆迪下调评级将影响整个经济和金融市场。 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 兰素英 郑雨航 每经编辑｜高涵 当地时间5月16日（周五）美股盘后，国际信用评级机构穆迪公司宣布，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将其评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 由于惠誉和标准普尔已分别于2023年和2011年下调美国主权信用评级，美国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa的最高 等级。 在贸易局势缓和之际，穆迪此举使美元资产再度承压。 5月19日（周一）美股期货、美债期货和美元指数同步走弱，30年期美债收益率升至5.023%，为2023年11月以来的最高水平，彭博美元指数已接 近4月低点。 穆迪给出的降级理由是，美政府当前财政支出计划无法让强制性支出和赤字在未来出现实质性减少。 数据显示，截至美国联邦政府债务总额已达36.2万亿美元，占GDP比重达124%；2024财年利息支出首次突破1万亿美元，仅在2025财年上半年 就已达5825亿美元，成为第二大支出项。尽管白宫强调"将通过重大法案恢复财政秩序"，但包括穆迪在内的多方分析认为，美国正陷入赤字长 期化、政治失能化的结构性困局。 在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（ ...

Tickmill Group分析师帕特里克•芒内利：在穆迪将美国政府的信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1后，美国国债收 益率曲线变得陡峭，理由是预算赤字不断扩大。 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating has led to significant turmoil in the US capital markets, with a "sell America" trade gaining traction, resulting in declines across stocks, bonds, and currencies [1][11] - The US Treasury market experienced a large-scale sell-off, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points, surpassing the psychological 5% level, the highest since mid-2007 [1] - Analysts expect the yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries to rise by an additional 5-10 basis points due to the impact of Moody's downgrade [4] Group 2 - US stock futures showed cautious sentiment, with the Dow futures down nearly 0.9%, S&P 500 futures down over 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down about 1.5% [7] - Gold, as a safe-haven asset, saw a rebound, with spot gold prices rising above $2,440 per ounce, benefiting from the deteriorating US fiscal situation [8] - The downgrade by Moody's is expected to intensify concerns over the sustainability of US debt, prompting investors to reassess the risk premium associated with US assets [11]