经历了11月的AI抛售，此次AI热门股的再度下挫主导了这波下跌。 尽管周四（18日）美股有所反弹，但市场仍弥漫着焦虑。周三时，纳斯达克指数1.9%的跌幅是18个交 易日以来最大的单日跌幅。"AI杠杆王"甲骨文（ORCL）股价下跌5.4%，跌至六个月低点，自9月高点 下跌45%；此前备受追捧的新晋"AI卖铲人"博通因一份财报而重挫，截至周三时周跌幅高达近9.4%，较 前期高位下跌约20%。据第一财经了解，近期做空规模⼤幅上升并以对冲基⾦为主，出现⾃5⽉以来最 ⼤的⼀次增幅。 美国资产管理公司Amont Partners董事总经理李肇宇（Rob Li）对第一财经表示，除了杠杆率高，甲骨 文的动荡主要受到OpenAI融资能力的影响，9月时引发甲骨文暴涨的巨额公司未实现履约义务（RPO， 尚未确认的已签约收入），在这5233亿美元RPO中，来自OpenAI的合同规模就占到3000亿美元；博通 的暴跌则是源于2026财年指引上调缺乏上行空间，加之大家担心谷歌今后做自己自有定制方案会吃掉博 通业务。尽管实际情况并无需过度担忧，但由于对冲基金杠杆较高且估值不便宜，AI热门股容易遭 遇"杀估值"。 圣诞前的一周，华尔街空头罕 ...

TikTok’s long-delayed plan to separate from Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd. was put in motion Thursday when the video sharing sensation said it’s being bought by a group of buyers led by Oracle Corp. TikTok Chief Executive Officer Shou Chew told employees that the company and ByteDance signed binding agreements to create a US joint venture majority-owned by American investors, according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. Chew wrote that he was “pleased to share some great news” and said agreements w ...

#行情 甲骨文盘前大涨超5%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):TikTok CEO周受资在一份备忘录中告诉员工，TikTok 已签署了由特朗普支持的协议，将其美国资产剥离，并与一群主要由美国投资者组成的团体创建一个新实体。Oracle、Silver Lake 和总部位于阿布扎比的MGX将共同拥有这家名为“TikTok USDS 合资企业有限责任公司”实体45%的股份。字节跳动保留近20%的股份。 https://t.co/FeUlso3gn7 ...

Core Insights - UAE capital is poised to play a crucial role in reversing market concerns about an AI bubble, with OpenAI planning to raise up to $100 billion, seeking investments from UAE sovereign wealth funds [1] - The involvement of UAE funds reflects a "Too Big To Fail" mentality, indicating that continued capital infusion is necessary to maintain the operational stability of major AI firms [1] - The financing implications extend beyond OpenAI, affecting the financial health of key suppliers like Oracle, which faced a downgrade in debt ratings due to concerns over OpenAI's revenue generation capabilities [1] Funding Impact - The funds raised by OpenAI will primarily be used to cover computing costs, providing a stable revenue stream for data center service providers like Oracle, which saw its stock rise over 5% following the news [2] - OpenAI's financing pressure began in late October, with investor concerns about its ability to manage $1.4 trillion in debt given its revenue of only $13 billion [5] - OpenAI is reportedly seeking government guarantees to attract the necessary investments for AI computing and infrastructure, highlighting the precarious nature of the current AI funding landscape [5] Strategic Investments - The deep involvement of UAE sovereign wealth funds is reshaping the industry landscape, with OpenAI already receiving support from the MGX fund [8] - SoftBank's CEO has committed to investing $30 billion in OpenAI, having sold $5.8 billion in Nvidia stock to fund this investment, although the total financing still falls short of OpenAI's projected $1.4 trillion capital needs [9] - The upcoming $100 billion investment is expected to significantly enhance OpenAI's competitive position in the AI sector and improve the financial outlook for partners like Oracle and CoreWeave [9]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corporation is recognized as a significant player in the AI stock market, with Evercore ISI maintaining an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $275, emphasizing the company's long-term growth potential in cloud services [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Evercore ISI estimates Oracle's cloud revenue potential to be around $76 billion, based on the assumption that each megawatt can generate $10 million in annual GPU cloud revenue [3]. - The annual cost for leases is projected to be approximately $14.5 billion, or $1.2 billion per month, spread over 15-19 years, assuming an average lease length of 17 years [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Structure - Leases are expected to account for about 18% of the total costs associated with supporting cloud revenue, aligning with Oracle's previous comments during the analyst day [4]. - Oracle has already secured commitments that will support 65% of the projected revenue ramp through FY29, amounting to around $116 billion in total OCI [4]. Group 3: Operational Insights - Despite reports of delays at the Michigan site, Oracle's planning includes delivery buffers, and the most significant revenue ramp from the OpenAI deal is anticipated between FY27 and FY28 [4]. - A potential pushout to FY28 for delivery is not expected to significantly alter the OCI revenue ramp, although it may not be favorable in light of recent stock price movements [5].

Core Insights - The current AI boom exhibits characteristics of a historical bubble, but it is not merely a case of "overheated tech stock speculation" as the AI industry is likely to undergo structural differentiation while continuing to grow [1][8] - Despite widespread discussions about the existence of a bubble, investments continue to flow into the sector, with valuations rising and enthusiasm persisting [1][8] - Major tech companies are using their cash flow to fund AI infrastructure, contrasting with the debt-laden startups of the early internet era, leading some investors to believe "this time is different" [8][10] AI Bubble Existence - To assess whether an AI bubble exists, a reliable evaluation tool is needed, such as the four-factor framework proposed by Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch [2] - The four factors include uncertainty, a significant gap between investment scale and actual revenue, the prevalence of pure investment targets, and the influx of inexperienced investors [3][4][5] Investment and Revenue Discrepancy - Large tech companies are projected to invest up to $3 trillion in AI infrastructure by 2028, while current annual AI revenue is approximately $50 billion, indicating a significant gap [4] - Morgan Stanley estimates that to achieve a 10% return on these investments, AI must generate $650 billion annually, which is 13 times the current revenue level [4] Market Dynamics - The narrative surrounding AI is powerful, with claims that AI will solve numerous global issues, which fuels investment despite the lack of clear profitability [6][10] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a fear of missing out (FOMO), leading investors to overlook potential risks associated with AI investments [7][10] Financial Structures and Risks - The financing structure for AI investments is evolving, with private equity and bond markets increasingly involved, which could spread risks beyond traditional equity speculation [11] - Oracle's significant debt and reliance on OpenAI for revenue highlight the risks associated with high leverage in the AI sector [12] Technological Progress vs. Bubble - Technological advancements in AI are real and ongoing, but this does not negate the existence of a bubble characterized by inflated market prices [13][14] - The current valuation of AI companies appears to be the highest since the internet bubble, indicating a potential disconnect between market prices and actual value [14][15] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, is driving the narrative that justifies massive investments in AI, further complicating the bubble dynamics [16] Conditions for Bubble Disproof - For the AI bubble to be disproven, core companies must demonstrate robust financial health, productivity gains must be realized quickly, and the competitive landscape must ensure healthy profit distribution [17][18][19] - The financing structure must be de-risked to avoid systemic debt risks, and market sentiment must remain rational to prevent a full-blown bubble [20] Economic Implications of Bubble Burst - If the AI bubble bursts, it could lead to significant economic repercussions, including a potential recession, as AI-related investments have become a substantial part of U.S. GDP growth [21] - The resilience of major tech companies may mitigate systemic financial crises, but asset price corrections could still occur [21][22] Future Outlook - The AI market is expected to continue growing, albeit with structural differentiation, as some overhyped sectors may face challenges while others with clear ROI will thrive [23] - The focus will shift from storytelling to efficiency and physical implementation, with critical issues like power supply and funding gaps needing resolution [23]

Core Insights - US core inflation unexpectedly eased to a four-year low, raising questions among economists about the reliability of the data due to a prior government shutdown [8][14] - ByteDance has signed an agreement to establish a joint venture in the US with majority ownership by American investors [8][14] Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.17% [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.12% at 25498.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% [1][5] Economic Indicators - The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7% [14] - The report indicated that core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the last two months, with declines in hotel, leisure, and clothing prices limiting the overall increase [14] Corporate Developments - TikTok announced the establishment of a joint venture with US investors, which will operate independently and manage US data protection and algorithm security [8][14] - China has reportedly ordered 7 million tons of US soybeans, achieving over half of the procurement target set during the Trump administration [8][14]

此次协议的签署，标志着TikTok美国业务重组方案迈出关键一步。据了解，新合资企业负责的数据安全等业务为非营利性质且运营成本 较高，而为保障其正常运转，字节跳动旗下负责商业业务的实体将与合资企业建立商业上合理的收入分享安排。周受资在备忘录中未提 及中国方面对该交易的具体意见，仅明确协议尚待中国批准。 外界分析认为，该方案通过"数据安全独立运营、商业核心留存"的架构设计，既契合了美国对数据安全的监管要求，也保障了字节跳动 在TikTok核心商业领域的控制权，与苹果公司在中国"云上贵州"的运营模式有相似之处，但字节跳动在合资企业中仍保留重要席位。协议 若顺利获批落地，将确保美国1.7亿用户继续正常使用TikTok，广告商也可不受影响地连接全球受众，为TikTok美国业务的稳定发展奠定 基础。 周受资在备忘录中难掩振奋，称"很高兴与大家分享好消息"。根据备忘录披露的股权架构，新成立的美国合资企业50%股份由新投资者持 有，其中甲骨文、银湖资本、MGX将分别持有15%的股份；字节跳动部分现有投资者的关联公司将持有30.1%的股份；字节跳动自身将保 留19.9%的股份，仍为该合资企业的最大单一股东。值得注意的是，合资企 ...

Core Insights - TikTok and its parent company ByteDance have established agreements with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX to create a new U.S. joint venture, ensuring the app's continued operation in the United States [1] - The transaction is expected to close on January 22, as stated by TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew [2] Joint Venture Structure - The U.S. joint venture will be majority owned by American investors, governed by a seven-member board of directors, and will include provisions to protect American data and national security [3] - A consortium of new investors will hold 50% of the joint venture, with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each holding 15%, while existing ByteDance affiliates will hold 30.1%, and ByteDance will retain 19.9% [4] Data Protection and Operations - The joint venture will manage data protection, algorithm security, content moderation, and software assurance, with U.S. user data stored in the U.S. by Oracle [5] - TikTok Global's U.S. entities will oversee global product interoperability, eCommerce, advertising, marketing, and other commercial activities [5] User Experience and Legislative Context - The joint venture aims to ensure that over 170 million Americans can continue using the platform without changes to their experience, while advertisers can still reach global audiences [6] - A law signed by former President Joe Biden in April 2024 mandated that TikTok would be banned unless ByteDance divested its stake within a year [6] - The law faced legal challenges and delays, particularly after the election of Trump, as various potential buyers sought to finalize a deal [7] - Trump's executive order in September deemed the joint venture framework a "qualified divestiture" that would address national security concerns [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the "Speed Act" aimed at simplifying the permitting process for AI infrastructure and energy systems, with a vote of 221 in favor and 196 against [1] - Major U.S. tech companies, including Micron, OpenAI, and Microsoft, have publicly supported the "Speed Act," which is expected to reduce the federal permitting risks associated with energy infrastructure for large data centers [2] - The "Speed Act" is designed to accelerate the construction of AI data centers by addressing external constraints related to obtaining power and energy infrastructure approvals, thereby reducing the "time-to-power" risk [2][3] Group 2 - The legislation will narrow and expedite the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) processes, allowing certain projects to bypass redundant reviews and focusing environmental impact analyses on direct effects [3] - The act is seen as a tool to facilitate faster energy supply projects, which are critical for the expansion of AI data centers, especially in regions with tight power loads [3] - However, the "Speed Act" does not address other significant bottlenecks faced by tech giants, such as local zoning issues, community resistance, and utility cost-sharing [4] Group 3 - The "Genesis Project," initiated by the White House, aims to enhance the application of emerging technologies, including AI, in scientific exploration and energy projects, with 24 leading AI companies, including Microsoft and Google, signing agreements to participate [4] - The project is expected to significantly boost the productivity of U.S. researchers by automating experimental design and accelerating simulation processes [4] Group 4 - A report from Bank of America indicates that the global AI arms race is still in its early to mid-stages, with Vanguard noting that the AI investment cycle may have only reached 30%-40% of its peak [5] - Major financial institutions believe that the investment wave in AI infrastructure, particularly in AI chip computing hardware, is just beginning, with potential investments reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 [5]