4Q2023 在线营销服务收入同增 56.90%，佣金收入同增 357.05% 公司 4Q2023 收入和利润均大超我们此前预期，主要是由于：1）公司主站平台 建立了较强的高性价比用户心智，用户消费频次和货币化率有较好的增长；2） 公司出海业务 TEMU 发展迅速；3）公司期间费用率下降幅度较大，从而提高了 公司的盈利能力。鉴于公司 TEMU 业务仍处于高速发展期，有利于提升公司收 入和利润，我们上调对公司 2024/ 2025 年 GAAP 归母净利润的预测 47%/68% 至 918.78/1296.71 亿元，新增对公司 2026 年 GAAP 归母净利润的预测 1765.67 亿元。公司低价心智壁垒较为稳固，海外业务发展迅速，维持"买入"评级。 买入（维持） | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------| | | | | 市场数据 | | | 总股本(亿股 ) | 53.14 | | 总市值(亿美元)： | 1,755.99 | | 一年最低/最高(美元 )： | 108.87/152.99 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 54.02% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to PDD with a target price of $155.15/ADS, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - Temu replicates PDD's domestic strategy of "absolute low prices" through a fully managed model, achieving extreme supply chain efficiency [1] - Temu's fully managed model centralizes product selection and pricing, ensuring the lowest prices across all categories and optimizing platform resource allocation [1] - Temu's low prices, combined with large-scale event marketing, have rapidly increased its market presence, outperforming competitors like Amazon and Shein in price competitiveness [1] - In 2024, Temu will continue to innovate its business model, focusing on the fully managed model while introducing a "local-to-local" model to diversify product offerings [1] - Temu's logistics strategy includes increasing the proportion of sea freight and potentially building warehouses in core markets like the US to enhance fulfillment capabilities [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 248.3 billion in 2023E to RMB 455.1 billion in 2025E, with a CAGR of 27.2% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 60.6 billion in 2023E to RMB 104.1 billion in 2025E, with a CAGR of 28.2% [2] - Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 45.63 in 2023E to RMB 78.37 in 2025E [2] - ROE is projected to remain strong, ranging from 26% to 29% between 2023E and 2025E [2] Business Model and Strategy - Temu's fully managed model reduces barriers for merchants, attracting factories and suppliers with weak bargaining power, especially those sensitive to procurement costs [1][27] - Temu's pricing strategy ensures that prices across all categories are significantly lower than competitors like Amazon and Shein, with prices typically 30%-70% of Amazon's [132] - Temu's logistics strategy involves centralized shipping, which improves bargaining power with logistics providers and reduces costs [38] - Temu plans to expand its product categories, including large items, which will increase the proportion of sea freight and optimize cost structures [1][158] Market Expansion and User Demographics - Temu has expanded to 49 countries across Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Oceania, and South Africa as of January 2024 [18] - Temu's user base is more male-dominated and older compared to Shein, TikTok, and Amazon, with 40.7% of users aged 25-44 and 47.2% aged 45+ [11] - Temu's global MAU reached 183 million, with the US accounting for 65% of its MAU [18] Competitive Landscape - Temu's low-price strategy positions it as a strong competitor in the US market, especially during periods of high inflation, where consumers are more price-sensitive [84] - Temu's pricing advantage is evident across categories like women's clothing, 3C products, and home goods, where its prices are significantly lower than Amazon's [132] - Temu's fully managed model contrasts with Shein's OEM model and AliExpress's POP model, offering a unique approach to supply chain management [59] Future Outlook - Temu is expected to continue its rapid market expansion, leveraging its supply chain advantages and low-price strategy to capture market share in both developed and emerging markets [172] - The platform plans to enhance its logistics capabilities by building warehouses in the US and increasing the use of sea freight for large items [1][158] - Temu's introduction of the "local-to-local" model will further diversify its product offerings and improve resource allocation [1][142]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) is expected to report Q4 2023 revenue of 82.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 107%, with online marketing revenue of 43.5 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 39 billion yuan [5]. - For the full year 2023, Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to be 241.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with online marketing revenue of 148.4 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 92.9 billion yuan [5]. - The expected operating profit for Q4 2023 is 17.3 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 19.7 billion yuan. The full year 2023 operating profit is anticipated to be 53.6 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 60.9 billion yuan [5]. - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2023 is expected to be 2.95 yuan, with annual earnings per share for 2023 projected at 9.24 yuan [5]. Financial Overview - The current stock price is 123.20 USD, with a market capitalization of 163.9 billion USD [5]. - The company has 1.329 billion shares outstanding, with a 52-week high of 152.99 USD and a low of 59.67 USD [5]. - The report highlights that Temu's global GMV for 2023 is approximately 16.5 billion USD, with the U.S. being the largest single market [5]. Industry Context - Temu has recently launched a semi-managed model, allowing suppliers to choose logistics service providers to ship products to overseas warehouses, which may enable exploration of higher-priced and larger items [5]. - The report notes that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill related to TikTok, which could pose policy risks for e-commerce platforms like Temu in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections [5].

KEY TAKEAWAYS American depositary receipts (ADRs) of PDD Holdings, the parent company of online discount retailer Temu, rose in early trading Wednesday after a fourth-quarter earnings beat,The company posted quarterly revenue and income above estimates, and more than double the figures it reported in the year-ago period.Jefferies analysts reiterated a "buy" rating on PDD in a note following the earnings report's release, with a price target of $157. American depositary receipts (ADRs) of PDD Holdings (PDD), ...

今日晚间值得关注的重磅新闻有： 1、习近平：在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起 2、Q4净利同比翻倍!拼多多一度涨超15% 券商关注跨境电商四主线 3、中央台办、国家发改委举办福建省深化两岸融合发展座谈会 4、北京会否加快放松限购?官方明确，多地继续出台购房支持政策 6、库克：苹果的生成式AI将在今年晚些时候宣布 以下为晚报正文： 1、习近平：在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起 重要程度：★★★★★ 习近平主持召开新时代推动中部地区崛起座谈会强调，在更高起点上扎实推动中部地区崛起。 2、Q4净利同比翻倍!拼多多一度涨超15% 券商关注跨境电商四主线 重要程度：★★★★ 3月20日，拼多多美股一度涨超15%。消息面上，得益于旗下出海电商平台Temu的强劲表现，拼多多交出了一份远超华尔街预期的Q4业绩。 西部证券研报指出，跨境电商市场呈现全球性增长趋势，亚马逊及欧美地区为主要布局方向。跨境电商市场规模增量蒸蒸日上，其中出口电商占主导地位，未来体量仍会有新突破。全球电商渗透率提升，供应链优势及政策利好推动跨境电商高速增长。建议关注： (1)外贸数字化新型跨境贸易方式：小商品城; (2)跨境电商B2B领先企业，中国 ...

Shares of PDD Holdings (PDD 0.96%) were popping today after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted another round of blistering growth in its fourth-quarter earnings report. Revenue and operating profit both more than doubled in the period.As of 9:45 a.m., the stock was up 6% after opening up as much as 16% higher. PDD is destroying the competitionPDD, the parent of Pinduoduo and Temu, the fast-growing international discount e-commerce platform, blew past estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report.Revenue ...

PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) stock price was one of the best performers in Wall Street after the company published strong financial results. It surged from Tuesday’s close of $130 to almost $150, its highest level since January.Pinduoduo and Temu are growingCopy link to sectionPDD Holdings, the secretive Chinese e-commerce giant, published strong financial results, implying that its business was doing well.  The company’s revenue during the quarter surged by 123% YoY to $12.5 billion. This made it one of the ...

Key PointsPDD Holdings is set to give markets another leg higher on its coming quarterly earnings, especially after a recent dip.Mega investors see the potential in China, and PDD stands head and shoulders above its peers.Institutions are buying, analysts are boosting, and markets can't hide the writing on the wall.5 stocks we like better than American International GroupWatch for a dip buying opportunity in PDD Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: PDD as China’s economy blows past expectations this quarter. Analysts may ...

智通财经APP获悉，3月20日，拼多多集团(PDD.US)发布了截至12月31日的2023年第四季度及全年财报。本季度营收为889亿元，同比增长123%；全年营收为2476亿元，同比增长90%。 2023年是消费提振年，也是拼多多转型高质量发展的第一年。四季度以来，平台在丰富优质产品供给的同时，加大对国货潮品、品质农货等改善型消费品的补贴力度，既为用户多省钱，又助力商家多卖货。 例如，去年11.11，秒杀频道在活动期间为超10万个中小商家提供增量引擎，农货、国货及全球好物等超40个细分类目实现翻倍增长；同时，入驻百亿补贴的农货、国货商家则同比增长了2倍以上。 “今年，我们将继续坚定执行高质量发展战略。”拼多多集团执行董事、联席首席执行官赵佳臻表示，“高质量发展不是一句抽象的口号，而是要切实落到每一次触达、每一个订单、每一次服务当中，真正降低消费升级的难度与门槛，让更多人享受更好的生活。” ...

[Financial Performance Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20Performance%20Overview) This section presents an overview of the company's financial performance, including management commentary and key highlights for Q4 and fiscal year 2023 [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) Management highlighted 2023 as a pivotal year for high-quality development, emphasizing continued focus on consumer experience, technology innovation, and value delivery, supported by significant R&D investments - Mr. Lei Chen, Chairman and Co-CEO, stated that 2023 was a "pivotal chapter" focused on transitioning towards high-quality development, a strategy that will continue in 2024 with a focus on consumer experience and technology innovation[2](index=2&type=chunk) - Mr. Jiazhen Zhao, Executive Director and Co-CEO, noted growing consumer demand and reiterated the company's dedication to offering great value and exceptional service[2](index=2&type=chunk) - Ms. Jun Liu, VP of Finance, confirmed that R&D investment surpassed **RMB 10 billion** for the second year in a row, underscoring a commitment to technology and agricultural advancements[2](index=2&type=chunk) [Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Fourth%20Quarter%202023%20Financial%20Highlights) PDD Holdings reported exceptionally strong Q4 2023 growth, with total revenues surging, primarily driven by transaction services, leading to substantial increases in both operating profit and net income Q4 2023 Key Financial Metrics (YoY Growth) | Metric | Q4 2023 (RMB Million) | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenues | 88,881.0 | 123% | | Operating Profit | 22,395.0 | 146% | | Net Income | 23,280.3 | 146% | | Revenues from Transaction Services | 40,205.4 | 357% | [Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Highlights](index=2&type=section&id=Fiscal%20Year%202023%20Financial%20Highlights) For fiscal year 2023, the company achieved robust revenue growth, with substantial increases in operating profit and net income, reflecting strong performance driven by transaction services Fiscal Year 2023 Key Financial Metrics (YoY Growth) | Metric | FY 2023 (RMB Million) | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenues | 247,639.2 | 90% | | Operating Profit | 58,698.8 | 93% | | Net Income | 60,026.5 | 90% | | Revenues from Transaction Services | 94,098.7 | 241% | [Detailed Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Detailed%20Financial%20Results) This section provides a detailed breakdown of the company's financial performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023, covering revenue, costs, expenses, profitability, and cash flow [Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Fourth%20Quarter%202023%20Financial%20Results) Q4 2023 revenue growth was propelled by online marketing and transaction services, while operating expenses increased, resulting in strong GAAP diluted EPS and operating cash flow [Revenue](index=1&type=section&id=Q4%202023%20Revenue) Total Q4 revenues significantly increased, driven primarily by strong growth in transaction services, complemented by online marketing services Q4 2023 Revenue Breakdown (RMB Million) | Revenue Source | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Online marketing services and others | 48,675.6 | 31,023.4 | 57% | | Transaction services | 40,205.4 | 8,796.6 | 357% | | **Total Revenues** | **88,881.0** | **39,820.0** | **123%** | [Costs and Expenses](index=1&type=section&id=Q4%202023%20Costs%20and%20Expenses) Total operating expenses increased significantly, primarily due to higher sales and marketing expenses and a substantial rise in costs of revenues reflecting increased fulfillment and payment processing fees Q4 2023 Operating Expenses (RMB Million) | Expense Item | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Costs of revenues | 35,078.3 | 8,926.7 | 293% | | Sales and marketing | 26,638.5 | 17,732.4 | 50% | | General and administrative | 1,904.8 | 1,640.5 | 16% | | Research and development | 2,864.4 | 2,406.7 | 19% | [Profitability and Cash Flow](index=1&type=section&id=Q4%202023%20Profitability%20and%20Cash%20Flow) Q4 saw substantial growth in operating profit and net income, alongside a significant increase in diluted EPS and strong net cash generated from operating activities Q4 2023 Profitability (RMB Million) | Metric | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Profit | 22,395.0 | 9,113.7 | 146% | | Net Income | 23,280.3 | 9,453.7 | 146% | - Diluted earnings per ADS was **RMB 15.83**, compared to **RMB 6.52** in Q4 2022. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was **RMB 17.32**[6](index=6&type=chunk)[27](index=27&type=chunk) - Net cash generated from operating activities was **RMB 36.9 billion**, up from **RMB 26.6 billion** in Q4 2022, mainly due to the increase in net income[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results](index=2&type=section&id=Fiscal%20Year%202023%20Financial%20Results) Full year 2023 results show robust revenue growth, particularly in transaction services, with increased operating expenses leading to substantial gains in operating profit, diluted EPS, and operating cash flow [Revenue](index=2&type=section&id=FY%202023%20Revenue) Full-year 2023 revenue saw significant growth, primarily driven by exceptional performance in transaction services, complemented by strong contributions from online marketing services Fiscal Year 2023 Revenue Breakdown (RMB Million) | Revenue Source | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Online marketing services and others | 153,540.6 | 102,931.1 | 49% | | Transaction services | 94,098.7 | 27,626.5 | 241% | | **Total Revenues** | **247,639.2** | **130,557.6** | **90%** | [Costs and Expenses](index=2&type=section&id=FY%202023%20Costs%20and%20Expenses) Total operating expenses for FY2023 increased, primarily driven by higher sales and marketing expenses, with a modest rise in research and development costs Fiscal Year 2023 Operating Expenses (RMB Million) | Expense Item | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Costs of revenues | 91,723.6 | 31,462.3 | 192% | | Sales and marketing | 82,188.9 | 54,343.7 | 51% | | General and administrative | 4,075.6 | 3,964.9 | 3% | | Research and development | 10,952.4 | 10,384.7 | 5% | [Profitability and Cash Flow](index=2&type=section&id=FY%202023%20Profitability%20and%20Cash%20Flow) FY2023 profitability saw substantial growth in operating profit and net income, with diluted EPS nearly doubling and strong net operating cash flow driven by increased net income Fiscal Year 2023 Profitability (RMB Million) | Metric | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Profit | 58,698.8 | 30,401.9 | 93% | | Net Income | 60,026.5 | 31,538.1 | 90% | - Diluted earnings per ADS was **RMB 41.15**, compared to **RMB 21.93** in 2022. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was **RMB 46.51**[31](index=31&type=chunk) - Net cash generated from operating activities was **RMB 94.2 billion**, compared to **RMB 48.5 billion** in 2022[31](index=31&type=chunk) [Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements) This section presents the company's key financial statements, including condensed consolidated balance sheets, statements of cash flows, and reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=3&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of December 31, 2023, PDD's balance sheet reflects significant growth in total assets, primarily driven by cash and investments, alongside increases in total liabilities and shareholders' equity Key Balance Sheet Items (RMB Billion) | Item | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments | 217.2 | 149.4 | | Total Assets | 348.1 | 237.1 | | Total Liabilities | 160.8 | 119.3 | | Total Shareholders' Equity | 187.2 | 117.8 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For FY2023, the company generated substantial cash from operating activities, primarily due to higher net income, while utilizing cash for investing and financing activities, ending the year with a strong cash balance Fiscal Year 2023 Cash Flow Summary (RMB Billion) | Cash Flow from | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Activities | 94.2 | 48.5 | | Investing Activities | (55.4) | (22.4) | | Financing Activities | (9.0) | 0.01 | [Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures](index=6&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Measures) The company provides non-GAAP financial measures, excluding certain non-cash charges, to offer an alternative view of operating performance, showing higher non-GAAP operating profit and net income compared to GAAP for FY 2023 - Non-GAAP measures exclude share-based compensation expenses, fair value change of certain investments, and interest expenses related to the convertible bonds' amortization to face value[21](index=21&type=chunk)[31](index=31&type=chunk) GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Reconciliation for FY 2023 (RMB Million) | Metric | GAAP | Non-GAAP | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Profit | 58,698.8 | 65,777.6 | | Net Income | 60,026.5 | 67,899.3 |