有人要找回自己，有人在适应未来。 文丨高洪浩 沈方伟 孙海宁 陈晶 贺乾明 龚方毅 管艺雯 邱豪 编辑丨黄俊杰 "最终你会面对一个组织合法性的问题。你的组织除了创造 GDP、就业之外，到底还有什么样的价值。这 是最终能完成合法性的过程。"2020 年夏天，贝壳创始人左晖在接受李翔采访时把中国大公司的挑战与 100 年前的洛克菲勒、摩根相比。 四年前提出的疑问，再次成为一个问题。经过疫情、疫情后的消费反弹，人们的关注重点在 2024 年回到 了增长和分配。 这恰好也是中国互联网平台收益可观的一年。随着 B 站在 2024 年三季度实现盈亏平衡，我们追踪的 15 大 互联网公司首次全部盈利。而经营效率本就高的几个大公司，多家盈利破了记录。 利润提升是多年降本增效的成果。也因为当生意不那么好做，各行各业都想靠互联网平台找生意机会。 但当钟睒睒、贾国龙、叶国富这三个不同行业的知名企业家今年相继公开质疑互联网平台打乱价格体系、 分走过多收入；当一个许昌的区域型零售公司的创始人被捧为企业家榜样，多少说明了氛围的变化——增 长不完全被视为正面的、钱太多也不是。 任何一个大平台经营至今，必然有过巨大正向影响。比如，电商提供公 ...

Stock Performance and Valuation - PDD Holdings' stock has declined by 33.4% in 2024, signaling concerns about the company's future prospects [1] - The company's forward P/E ratio of 7.98X is significantly below the industry average of 15.23X, reflecting market pessimism about its fundamental challenges [4][5] Financial Performance and Growth - Revenue growth slowed to 44% YoY in Q3 2024, down from 86% in Q2 2024, indicating a significant deceleration [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $65.75 billion, representing 19.8% growth from the previous year [12] - Earnings per share for 2025 are estimated at $12.21, suggesting 7.2% growth, but the estimate has been revised downward by 8.7% over the past 60 days [12] Operational Challenges - Management has acknowledged operational inefficiencies, including an aging team and lack of capabilities to leverage macroeconomic shifts [10] - The company faces higher operational costs compared to peers, which could persist into 2025 [10] Global Expansion and Regulatory Risks - PDD's international expansion through Temu faces challenges due to potential changes in de minimis rules by the Biden administration, which could eliminate tariff exemptions on key product categories [7] - Regulatory pressures and intense competition raise doubts about the sustainability of PDD's global growth strategy [7] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese e-commerce market is increasingly competitive, with pressure from established players like Amazon, eBay, and Alibaba, as well as new entrants [14] - PDD relies on price-based competition and promotional activities, which may not be sustainable as consumer preferences evolve and competitors innovate [14] Strategic Investments and Profitability - PDD is investing heavily in initiatives like the RMB10 billion merchant support program, which will pressure margins [11] - Management has warned that profitability will trend lower over the long term due to these investments and the unsustainability of high revenue growth [11] Conclusion - Despite PDD's strong market position and significant cash reserves of RMB308.5 billion, the combination of decelerating growth, margin pressure, and operational inefficiencies suggests continued underperformance into 2025 [15] - The company's heavy investment requirements and management's admissions of business model limitations justify the current valuation discount [15]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's main site revenue growth has slowed due to intense competition in the e-commerce industry [1] - The company is increasing investments in the supply side, which may pressure short-term profitability but is expected to support long-term growth [1][13] - The company's overseas market is steadily expanding, with TEMU now available in over 80 countries and regions [6] - The semi-hosted model introduced in North America and later in Europe, Japan, and South Korea is expected to partially mitigate overseas regulatory and policy risks [6] - The company's 24Q3 revenue grew by 44% YoY to 99.4 billion yuan, with marketing service revenue increasing by 24% and transaction service revenue growing by 72% [11] - The company's 24Q3 non-GAAP net profit increased by 61% YoY to 27.46 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net margin of 27.6% [11] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company's 2024-2025 revenue forecasts are revised down to 3970/4771 billion yuan (previously 3990/4863 billion yuan), representing YoY growth of 60%/20% [1] - The company's 2024-2025 non-GAAP net profit forecasts are revised down to 1231/1380 billion yuan (previously 1282/1553 billion yuan), representing YoY growth of 81%/12% [1] Overseas Expansion - TEMU has been launched in over 80 countries and regions, with the semi-hosted model introduced in North America, Europe, Japan, and South Korea [6] - The company is focusing on compliance and building a healthy business environment for long-term overseas development [6] 24Q3 Performance - 24Q3 revenue grew by 44% YoY to 99.4 billion yuan, driven by a 24% increase in marketing service revenue and a 72% increase in transaction service revenue [11] - 24Q3 non-GAAP net profit increased by 61% YoY to 27.46 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net margin of 27.6% [11] - The company's revenue growth was impacted by increased competition and internal investments [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR has experienced a significant decline in stock performance, with a return of -15.1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +3.6% [2] Earnings Estimates - For the current quarter, PDD is expected to report earnings of $2.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.7%, although the Zacks Consensus Estimate has decreased by -3.4% in the last 30 days [5] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year stands at $11.39, indicating a substantial increase of +73.6% from the previous year, but this estimate has also been revised down by -8.5% [5] - For the next fiscal year, the earnings estimate is $12.21, suggesting a growth of +7.2% year-over-year, with a recent downward revision of -8.2% [6] Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $15.68 billion, which represents a year-over-year growth of +25.2% [10] - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $54.89 billion, indicating a growth of +58.4%, while the next fiscal year's estimate of $65.75 billion reflects a growth of +19.8% [10] Recent Performance and Surprises - In the last reported quarter, PDD Holdings Inc. achieved revenues of $14.16 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of +50.1%, with an EPS of $2.65 compared to $1.55 a year ago [11] - The company reported a revenue surprise of -2.16% against the Zacks Consensus Estimate and an EPS surprise of -6.03% [11] - Over the last four quarters, PDD has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and revenue estimates two times [12] Valuation - PDD Holdings Inc. is graded B in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating that it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [16] - Valuation multiples such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) are essential for assessing whether the stock is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued [14][15] Overall Outlook - The Zacks Rank for PDD Holdings Inc. is 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [7][17]

Group 1: Market Position and Performance - Temu, owned by China's PDD Holdings, has become a leading e-commerce app in the U.S., topping Apple's list of most downloaded free apps for the second consecutive year, indicating significant success for Chinese apps in the U.S. consumer market [3] - Temu's entry into the U.S. market in 2022 has put pressure on established competitors like Amazon, showcasing its rapid growth and popularity among American consumers [1][3] Group 2: Regulatory and Political Environment - The Biden administration has proposed changes to the "de minimis" provision, which currently allows shipments valued under $800 to be exempt from import duties, potentially impacting the competitiveness of companies like Temu and Shein [4][7] - Donald Trump's return to the White House could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese imports, with proposals suggesting tariffs could reach between 60% to 100%, adding uncertainty for companies relying on low-cost imports from China [5] - Concerns over Chinese imports are not limited to the U.S.; Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have implemented anti-dumping tariffs, and Vietnam has recently banned Temu from operating in its market [6] Group 3: Economic Impact - A report from Nomura indicates that changes to the de minimis rule could be a significant trade priority for the Trump administration, potentially affecting U.S.-China trade relations [7] - Nomura estimates that a U.S. ban on all de minimis imports from China could reduce China's annual export growth by 1.3% and negatively impact GDP growth by 0.2% in 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - PDD's share price has declined 29% in 2023 despite significant revenue growth, raising questions about whether expectations have been reset for a potential recovery in 2025 [3][11]. Group 1: Business Overview - PDD operates two e-commerce platforms: Pinduoduo, which focuses on group-buying in China, and Temu, which targets international markets with a traditional e-commerce model [4][6]. - Pinduoduo's integration with WeChat enhances consumer engagement through social sharing and group purchasing incentives [4]. - Temu competes by offering low prices sourced directly from Chinese manufacturers, with less emphasis on gamification compared to Pinduoduo [6]. Group 2: Revenue Streams - PDD's revenue is divided into marketing services and transaction revenue, with transaction revenue growing three times faster than marketing revenue in the last quarter [7]. - Analysts expect PDD's revenue to grow by 32% over the next 12 months, with adjusted earnings per share anticipated to grow by 16% [11]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - PDD's asset-light model allows for higher margins compared to competitors like JD and Alibaba, despite all three trading at similar forward P/E multiples [10][11]. - PDD's forward P/E has decreased by 60% this year to just over 9x, and its PEG ratio is around 0.4, indicating a lower market valuation relative to expected earnings growth [12]. Group 4: Risks - Proposed changes to U.S. de minimis rules could impact Temu's low-cost model, potentially raising costs for products that fall under the exemption [8]. - A slowdown in the Chinese economy is another risk, although projections indicate only a minor GDP growth decline of 0.4% in 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc. has experienced a 50% decline in stock price since its peak in February 2021, despite strong operational performance, amid a prolonged bear market in China lasting 36 months [1]. Company Performance - The stock price of PDD Holdings Inc. has decreased significantly, indicating a disconnect between market performance and operational success [1]. Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy focuses on identifying businesses that solve real problems, with the potential for significant price appreciation over a 2-5 year horizon [1]. - The goal is to manage a $10 million investment portfolio, primarily in stocks and real estate, aiming to outperform the S&P 500 and achieve financial independence by 2035 [1].

Holiday Season Strategy - PDD Holdings and Shein are preparing for the Holiday season by offering deep discounts on toys and products from U S vendors [1] Analyst Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in PDD Holdings and BABA through stock ownership options or other derivatives [1] Disclosure - The article expresses the analyst's own opinions and is not compensated by any company mentioned [1]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings has experienced a 5.1% decline in share price post third-quarter earnings release, raising investor concerns about future growth prospects despite reporting a 44% year-over-year revenue growth to RMB99.4 billion ($14.16 billion) [1] Share Price Movement - The company's share price has decreased since the earnings report, indicating market apprehension regarding its growth trajectory [1] Intensifying Competition and Market Challenges - PDD is facing heightened competition in the e-commerce sector, struggling to maintain its market position against rivals like Amazon, eBay, and Alibaba [4] - The global business remains in the exploration phase, which adds to competitive pressures that could erode market share and profit margins [4] Mounting Operating Expenses Threaten Profitability - Despite a 61% increase in net income to RMB25 billion ($3.56 billion), operating expenses rose 39% to RMB35.4 billion, with sales and marketing expenses increasing by 40% to RMB30.5 billion [5] - General and administrative expenses surged by 138% to RMB1.81 billion, indicating potential declines in operational efficiency [5] Fee Reduction Program Impact - The RMB10 billion fee reduction program aimed at supporting merchants may adversely affect profitability, with management warning of a potential long-term decline in profitability [6] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects revenues of $55.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 58.96% year-over-year, while earnings are estimated at $11.39 per share, suggesting a 73.63% increase from 2023 [7] Cash Flow Concerns - Operating cash flow has decreased to RMB27.5 billion from RMB32.5 billion year-over-year, a decline of 15.4%, raising concerns about working capital management [8] Investment Thesis - Given the aggressive fee reduction strategy, increased operating expenses, and declining cash flow, investors are advised to consider reducing their positions in PDD Holdings [9] - The company's forward P/E ratio of 7.49X, below the industry average of 15.66X, may indicate serious concerns about future prospects rather than a buying opportunity [10] Strategic Outlook - PDD's focus on "high-quality development" through merchant support and ecosystem investments may create near-term uncertainty, requiring substantial investment for long-term returns [13] - Investors are encouraged to wait for clearer indications of the impact of strategic initiatives before making investment decisions [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) [1][32] Core Insights - Revenue and profit fell short of market expectations, but monetization capabilities continue to improve. In Q3 2024, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of RMB 99.35 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 102.83 billion. The Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 27.459 billion, up 61% year-over-year but down 20% quarter-over-quarter, also below the consensus estimate of RMB 29.207 billion [1][17] - The company is increasing investments in its platform ecosystem, with advertising revenue of RMB 49.351 billion (up 24% year-over-year) and commission revenue of RMB 50 billion (up 72% year-over-year), although the latter was below market expectations [2][19] - The platform's governance system is continuously optimized to reduce product safety risks, with significant investments in compliance teams and proactive management of product listings [2][23] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3 2024, Pinduoduo's revenue reached RMB 99.35 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2%, but below market expectations [1][17] - The company continues to enhance its platform ecosystem, launching initiatives to reduce merchant transaction costs and improve operational efficiency [2][19] Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 60.03%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-over-year and a decline of 5.25 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3][25] - The report indicates that while profitability may be under pressure in the short term, there is potential for long-term improvement [3][30] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to lower-than-expected profit release in Q3 2024, the forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to RMB 1211.9 billion, RMB 1486.3 billion, and RMB 1817.1 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.3, 6.8, and 5.5 [3][32]