证券研究报告 携程集团 (9961 HK/TCOM US) 4Q25 业绩：境外业务延续高增长 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 2 月 26 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 携程公布 4Q25 业绩，收入 154 亿元，yoy+20.8%，超 VA 一致预期 3.7% （简称预期）。调整后经营利润 32 亿元，高于预期 1.2%；调整后经营利润 率 20.7%，略低于预期 0.5pct，4Q25 销售与营销费用率 28.5%，高于预期 1.3pct，主要由于国际业务拓展的投入。4Q25 国内旅游需求景气，国际 OTA 平台全年总预订量同比增长 60%，全球化业务贡献营收占比提升至 40%， 成为长期结构性增长来源；银发旅游、"娱乐 + 旅游" 等细分赛道表现亮 眼。同时四季度公司宣布董事会组成变更，范敏、季琦辞任董事，任命吴亦 泓及萧杨为新任独立董事。26 年 1 月公司收到国家市场监管总局反垄断调 查，带来短期不确定性，但是我们长期看好公司国内稳健增长、全球化布局 的长期潜力。维持买入评级。 4Q25 收入增长超预期，盈利稳健彰显经营韧性 携程 4Q25 收入 154 亿元，yoy+21%，超预期 3.7%， ...

Corporate Governance and Structure - Pinduoduo announced the implementation of a co-chairman system at its annual shareholder meeting in December 2025, appointing Zhao Jiazhen as co-chairman alongside Chen Lei, aimed at enhancing decision-making efficiency and potentially impacting future strategic directions [1] Business Development - In January 2026, Pinduoduo began internal testing of its "Billion Supermarket" initiative, utilizing a low-price subsidy strategy to expand its range of daily necessities, continuing its "Billion Subsidy" approach as part of its "Trillion Support" plan [2] - The company emphasized a strategy of exchanging profits for ecosystem development, with Q3 2025 financial results showing that transaction service revenue surpassed online marketing revenue for the first time, indicating a shift towards a more robust business model [2] Project Progress - Temu, identified as Pinduoduo's second growth curve, experienced a 24% year-on-year increase in GMV in Q3 2025, with business in the U.S. market gradually recovering [3] - Management highlighted Temu's rapid expansion during the shareholder meeting, while cautioning about the potential impacts of global regulatory environments and competitive dynamics on future growth [3] Financial Performance - Pinduoduo reported Q3 2025 revenue of 108.3 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit growth of 17%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [4] - Some brokerages, such as CITIC Securities and Guohai Securities, maintained a "buy" rating in November 2025, citing the company's globalization and valuation recovery potential, while noting short-term monetization pressure [4] - As of February 11, 2026, Pinduoduo's stock price was reported at $104.57, with a trading volume of $714 million on that day [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [2] Core Insights - Pinduoduo's Q3 2025 revenue reached 108.3 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9%, with advertising revenue at 53.35 billion yuan, up 8%, slightly below expectations. Non-GAAP net profit was 31.4 billion yuan, a 14.3% increase year-over-year, exceeding expectations. The company plans to continue significant investments in its ecosystem, which may impact short-term profits but is expected to drive sustainable high-quality growth in the long term [1][4] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of its domestic business and overseas markets, despite short-term fluctuations in profits due to increased ecosystem investments and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][4] Financial Data Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 247.639 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 90%. The net profit is expected to be 67.899 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase. The EPS (Non-GAAP) is projected at 6.79 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.9 [2][7] - The financial forecasts for 2024 to 2027 indicate continued growth, with total revenue expected to reach 557.912 billion yuan by 2027, and net profit projected at 162.547 billion yuan [2][5][7] Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 0.4%, a 6-month performance of 9.9%, and a 12-month performance of 10.0%. However, the relative performance over 12 months is down by 24.2% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's third-quarter financial report indicates a focus on long-term growth and ecosystem investment despite facing competitive pressures and uncertainties in global operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Competition - Pinduoduo acknowledges that competition in the industry is inevitable and emphasizes empowering consumers and merchants rather than overly focusing on short-term competitive dynamics [2] - The company plans to increase strategic projects similar to its "100 billion support" initiative in the future [2] - Pinduoduo is committed to supply chain optimization and platform ecosystem development, which may lead to temporary disadvantages compared to some competitors and could impose financial pressure [2] Group 2: Globalization Challenges - Pinduoduo is actively working on compliance for its global operations and collaborating with external parties, but faces significant uncertainties due to changing regulatory policies across different countries and regions [3] - The company recognizes that these uncertainties may pose unpredictable risks that could impact both short-term and long-term financial performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's latest financial report highlights the increasing complexity of the international environment, with significant changes in trade policies, taxation, data, and product compliance regulations across various countries and regions, leading to greater challenges and uncertainties for the company [1] Group 1 - Pinduoduo's Chairman and Co-CEO Chen Lei emphasized the company's efforts to learn, adapt, and keep pace with these regulatory changes [1] - The uncertainties present significant risks that are unpredictable and difficult to quantify, potentially impacting both short-term and long-term financial performance [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a sales revenue of 2.549 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.50% [5] - Revenue from industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing systems was 2.092 billion CNY, up 26.54% year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.6823 million CNY, a 109.10% increase year-on-year [6] - The operating cash flow was -1.1948 billion CNY, an improvement of 65.08% year-on-year [6] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - The company became the first domestic brand to surpass foreign brands in industrial robot shipments, achieving a market share of 10.5% [6] - Domestic business revenue reached 1.8 billion CNY, growing by 25.31% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 749 million CNY, up 2.18% [5] - The company is actively expanding into global markets, particularly in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia [10] Group 3: Research and Development - Total R&D expenditure was approximately 235 million CNY, accounting for 9.21% of sales revenue [7] - The company focuses on high-end applications and technological innovation to enhance its competitive edge [7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in downstream industries such as automotive, electronics, and lithium batteries in the second half of the year [8][9] - The automotive sector is a strategic focus, with ongoing efforts to penetrate the market and enhance product offerings [12] Group 5: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented comprehensive budget management to improve cost control, resulting in a decrease in expense ratios compared to the previous year [11] - Efforts to optimize cash flow and manage receivables have led to significant improvements in operational efficiency [6] Group 6: After-Sales Service and Market Strategy - The company plans to develop a comprehensive after-sales service system to enhance customer satisfaction and create new revenue streams [14] - The after-sales market is expected to grow due to an increasing installed base of nearly 100,000 industrial robots [14]

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) opened in Beijing, with Pop Mart participating as the exclusive trendy cultural brand partner, showcasing various popular IP products and interactive experiences [1][2] - Pop Mart aims to highlight the diversity and extensibility of trendy IP through its participation in CIFTIS, receiving widespread recognition from attendees [2] Company Strategy - Pop Mart's core strategy revolves around IP-centric group development, actively exploring creative expressions and new business formats such as building blocks, plush toys, desserts, and jewelry [2] - The company is committed to IP innovation and aims to provide diverse emotional experiences and cultural value to global consumers as it expands its international business [2] Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart achieved over 100% growth across all four major regions, with the Americas experiencing a growth rate exceeding tenfold [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Pop Mart has opened a total of 571 stores across 18 countries worldwide [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has benefited from the rise of domestic mid-tier brands and is strategically enhancing its global business operations [1][4]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 371 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17 million yuan, up 14.9% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality product development and has established stable partnerships with various brands, which is expected to drive revenue growth [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 1.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 69 million yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 52.6% [6]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 26.4% in 2025, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [6]. Business Segmentation - The skincare segment remains the core business, accounting for 89.5% of total revenue in H1 2025, with significant growth driven by new customer orders [7]. - The company has developed over 50 high-quality products and is actively expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [7]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically positioned to leverage the growing demand for domestic brands and is enhancing its supply chain capabilities to support market expansion [7]. - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality exhibitions to promote its global business, targeting key markets in Europe and North America [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo reported a total revenue of 103.9848 billion yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased by 4% to 30.7535 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was 103.9848 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 30.7535 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 32.7084 billion yuan, a decline of 5% year-on-year [1] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth for Pinduoduo compared to other platforms [2] - The company acknowledges that the current quarter's profit levels may not be sustainable, indicating potential future volatility [3] Strategic Response - Pinduoduo plans to increase investments to support small and medium-sized businesses, viewing this as a long-term investment in ecosystem development [3] - The company is focusing on specific merchants and cases to enhance support, including initiatives like the "Billion Support Plan" to subsidize and boost online sales for new quality products [3][4] Globalization Efforts - Pinduoduo is adapting to changes in global trade structures and consumer demands, with a focus on enhancing supply chain capabilities and localizing operations [5] - The company aims to improve service quality and logistics collaboration to better meet consumer expectations globally [5]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q2 2025 financial results show a slowdown in revenue growth to 7%, with total revenue of 103.985 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 32.708 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5% [1] Revenue Summary - Revenue from online marketing services and other businesses reached 55.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - Transaction service fee revenue was 48.281 billion yuan, showing a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue growth is slowing due to initiatives like the "100 billion support" strategy and "10 billion exemptions" affecting advertising and commission income [1] Cost and Expenditure Summary - Operating costs for the quarter were 45.859 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year, primarily driven by increases in fulfillment costs, bandwidth, server costs, and payment processing fees [2] - Operating expenses totaled 32.333 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, mainly due to rising sales and marketing expenses [2] - The total operating expenses in the previous quarter were 38.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 37%, which outpaced the 10% revenue growth [2] Strategic Focus - The company plans to increase investments to support small and medium-sized businesses, indicating a willingness to sacrifice some profit for long-term growth [2] - Pinduoduo remains cautious in its investment in instant retail, focusing instead on its grocery business, which requires substantial long-term investment despite competition [2] - The "Duoduo Grocery" business has a pickup point coverage of over 70% of administrative villages nationwide [2] Global Trade Impact - The company acknowledges that changes in global trade structures may cause short-term fluctuations in its cross-border business, but overall consumer trends remain stable, with increasing trust from overseas consumers [3]