Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto has entered into a Joint Development Agreement with Calix to support the construction of a demonstration plant for Zero Emissions Steel Technology in Western Australia, which aims to facilitate lower-emissions steel production using Pilbara iron ores [1] Group 1 - The demonstration plant will be located in Kwinana, south of Perth, at a site previously designated for Rio Tinto's Bio project [1] - The collaboration with Calix is part of Rio Tinto's efforts to innovate in sustainable steelmaking technologies [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom and dropped to the previous low. The market game intensified, but the rapid decline in terminal demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The overall iron ore fundamental situation has changed significantly, and it is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [4]. - The demand side shows a situation where domestic demand continues to weaken while overseas steel demand maintains high growth. The valuation of iron ore in the black series remains high, but as domestic terminal demand declines rapidly, the high - valuation of iron ore prices is expected to fall [32]. - For trading strategies, take a bearish view on single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bearish view on single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has been continuously declining from a high level, approaching the level of the same period last year. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%/23 million tons. The weekly shipment from Australia is 17.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/4.6 million tons, and that from Brazil is 7.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%/11.4 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines in the first three quarters increased by 10 million tons year - on - year, and the overseas shipment in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a relatively high level [7][15]. - **Non - mainstream Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has increased slightly month - on - month. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%/16.4 million tons. The shipment of non - mainstream ore is expected to maintain a high level year - on - year in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [16][17]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly, and the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore increased by nearly 3.3 million tons month - on - month. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons, and is currently at a high level in the past five years [23][26]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In the third quarter of 2025 to date, domestic molten iron production increased by 3.5%/11.3 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3.2%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.4%/9.3 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials decreased by 1.7%/3.2 million tons year - on - year. The domestic consumption of crude steel (excluding exports) decreased by 3.4%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry has turned from positive growth in the first half of the year to negative growth [32]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to September, the consumption of overseas iron ore decreased by 2%/15 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by nearly 4%/27.6 million tons year - on - year. The consumption of overseas iron elements has been at a high level year - on - year since the second quarter, continuously contributing to the increase. The demand for crude steel in overseas India remains at a relatively high level [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two metals companies, Rio Tinto and The Metals Company, highlighting their differences in size, market cap, and investment potential, with Rio Tinto being the more favorable option for investors interested in "buying the dip" [1][2]. Company Overview - Rio Tinto is a well-established mining company founded in 1873, with a market cap of $114 billion, primarily mining commodity metals such as iron ore, aluminum, copper, and lithium [3]. - The Metals Company, a newer entity founded in 2021, focuses on polymetallic nodules found in the Pacific Ocean, with a market cap of $2.5 billion [1][4]. Stock Performance - Both companies are trading significantly below their highs, with Rio Tinto down 25% from its pandemic-era high and The Metals Company down 30% from its recent high in October 2025 [2]. - Rio Tinto's stock price surged in 2021 due to high global demand for iron ore, with spot prices rising from approximately $90/metric ton to $214/metric ton, but later declined due to reduced demand from China [5]. - The Metals Company's stock spiked recently due to anticipated benefits from China's export controls on rare-earth metals, but has since declined as optimism about a deal to maintain the rare-earth supply chain emerged [6][9]. Financial Metrics - Rio Tinto's current stock price is $70.63, with a market cap of $89 billion, a gross margin of 24.28%, and a dividend yield of 0.05% [6]. - The Metals Company's current stock price is $5.08, with a market cap of $2 billion and a gross margin of 0.00% [8]. Investment Outlook - The Metals Company has seen a significant increase of over 425% in its stock price this year, but it does not expect to begin commercial operations until Q4 2027, with full scaling not anticipated until 2043 [9]. - Rio Tinto offers a more immediate return on investment through its dividend policy, which has historically provided generous yields, even during periods of low iron ore prices [10][11]. - Given Rio Tinto's established position in the industry and its shareholder-friendly policies, it is viewed as a better investment compared to the speculative nature of The Metals Company [12].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that Rio Tinto appears to be slowing its commitment to lithium business, as the company has decided to place its Jadar project under care and maintenance [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The decision to place the Jadar project in maintenance suggests that Rio Tinto is focusing more on capital discipline, which was previously a significant part of its annual capital expenditure plan for lithium growth [1] - This potential strategic recalibration may be welcomed by investors [1] Group 2: Analyst Rating - Morgan Stanley has assigned an "overweight" rating to Rio Tinto [1]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto's Kennecott operation in Utah has entered into a 15-year virtual power purchase agreement with TerraGen to procure renewable energy from a new wind farm in Texas [1] Group 1 - The agreement aims to enhance the sustainability of Rio Tinto's operations by sourcing renewable energy [1] - The partnership with TerraGen reflects the company's commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and transitioning to cleaner energy sources [1]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto reported stable iron ore shipments of 84.3 million tons in Q3 2025, flat year-over-year but a 6% increase sequentially, marking the second-highest Q3 performance since 2019 [1] - The company expects Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2025 to be between 323 million tons and 338 million tons, indicating a potential year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3% [5] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates for 2025-2026, reflecting improving sentiment towards Rio Tinto [9] Production Highlights - Bauxite production increased by 9% year-over-year to 16.4 million tons in Q3 2025, achieving a production record [3] - Aluminum output rose by 6% year-over-year to 0.86 million tons, while alumina output increased by 7% year-over-year to 1.9 million tons [3] - Copper production reached 204 thousand tons, a 10% increase year-over-year, with record production at Oyu Tolgoi [4] Production Guidance - Rio Tinto's bauxite production target for 2025 is revised to 59-61 million tons, up from 57-59 million tons, reflecting higher utilization rates [6] - Copper production is expected to be near the high end of the range of 780-850 thousand tons for 2025, driven by strong performance at Oyu Tolgoi [7] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto's 2025 revenues is $54.90 billion, a 1.6% year-over-year increase, while earnings are projected at $6.09 per share, indicating a 9.1% decline [8] - For 2026, revenue estimates suggest a 3.72% year-over-year increase to $56.94 billion, with earnings projected to grow by 4.6% to $6.37 per share [10][11] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Rio Tinto shares have gained 21.6%, lagging behind the industry's 26.5% growth [13] - The company operates across 35 countries with a diversified portfolio, focusing on new projects to support energy transition [15] Lithium Expansion - Rio Tinto is expanding its lithium portfolio to meet rising demand for batteries and electric vehicles, aiming to grow its capacity to over 200 thousand tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2028 [16] Valuation - Rio Tinto trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.23, lower than the industry average of 16.43, indicating an attractive valuation [17] Investment Outlook - Despite potential operational headwinds, Rio Tinto's diversified portfolio and project pipeline position it well for future growth, supported by upward earnings revisions and attractive valuation [19]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto has decided to halt further development of the $2.95 billion Jadar lithium project in Serbia as part of a strategy to streamline operations and focus on near-term opportunities [1][3] - The Jadar project has faced multiple setbacks, including permitting delays and local opposition, despite hosting high-grade lithium resources [2][4] - The decision aligns with CEO Simon Trott's initiative to simplify the company's structure and prioritize capital allocation towards growth opportunities [3][4] Project Status - The Jadar project has not yet commenced production and has been placed into "care and maintenance" due to lack of progress in permitting [1][2] - The project has become a focal point of public discontent, complicating its advancement [2] Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto aims to optimize its portfolio and improve operational efficiency, remaining the only large diversified mining company to invest significantly in lithium [4] - The company reorganized into three core divisions: iron ore, aluminium combined with lithium, and copper under Trott's leadership [3] Market Context - The lithium market has seen a significant downturn, with prices dropping approximately 85% from their peak in 2022 [5] - Despite the downturn, Rio Tinto plans to increase its capital expenditure to the highest level in over a decade [5]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

Project Update - Rio Tinto has mothballed the $295 billion Jadar lithium project in Serbia [1]

Project Overview and Latest Developments - The Simandou iron ore project in southeastern Guinea is one of the largest undeveloped mines globally, with iron ore reserves of 2.4 billion tons and a total resource estimate nearing 5 billion tons, featuring high-grade ore with a content of 66%-67% [2] - The project includes a vertically integrated mining operation and unprecedented infrastructure development in Guinea, with a total designed annual capacity of 120 million tons from its four mining blocks [2] - The project is a joint investment exceeding $20 billion, involving multiple stakeholders including China Baowu, Rio Tinto, and the Guinean government [2] Transportation Infrastructure - A comprehensive transportation system has been constructed, including a 650-kilometer railway connecting the inland mine to the coast and a port with a total export capacity of 120 million tons per year [3] - The total investment in the transportation infrastructure is approximately $12.3 billion, with $8.8 billion allocated for rail and $3.5 billion for port facilities [3] Production and Economic Impact - The project officially commenced commercial operations on November 11, 2025, with an expected GDP growth contribution of 26% for Guinea by 2030 [4] - The first shipment of 2 million tons of iron ore departed for China, with annual shipments projected to be between 2.5 million and 3 million tons in 2025 [4] - Production will ramp up gradually, with expectations of reaching 60 million tons annually by 2026 [5] Market Influence - The project is set to alter the global iron ore supply landscape, potentially increasing Africa's share from 3% to 10%-15% by 2030, while reducing Australia's share from 60% to 45%-50% [6][7] - Upon full production, Simandou will add 120 million tons of high-grade iron ore to the market, accounting for approximately 5% of global supply [7] Pricing Dynamics - The project is expected to challenge the existing pricing structure dominated by Australian and Brazilian companies, enhancing China's bargaining power in iron ore negotiations [8][10] - The introduction of a new pricing index, the "North Iron Index," will directly compete with traditional pricing benchmarks [9] Steel Industry Transformation - The high-grade iron ore from Simandou is anticipated to drive upgrades in the steel industry, supporting lower carbon emissions and aligning with global green steel trends [11] - The project is expected to reduce steel production costs by 10%-15%, saving over 20 billion yuan annually for Chinese steel companies [11][12] Cost Structure and Future Projections - The production cost of Simandou is estimated to be between $60-$70 per ton, competitive with other major producers despite higher infrastructure costs [13] - In the medium to long term, the project is likely to lead to a decline in iron ore prices, with projections suggesting a drop to $70-$80 per ton over the next 2-5 years [15]