Core Viewpoint - The bidding process for Starbucks' China business has narrowed down to four private equity firms: Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a valuation of approximately $5 billion based on projected EBITDA of $400 to $500 million for 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Bidding Firms - Carlyle Group is a notable contender due to its previous investment experience in McDonald's China, where it held a 28% stake and achieved a net gain of approximately $1.2 billion from a $1.8 billion sale [2][8]. - Boyu Capital has been a key player in mergers and acquisitions, gaining recognition through high-profile deals such as Alibaba's buyback of Yahoo shares [3][4]. - EQT, while less known in China, has a strong background in the Asian market and has successfully exited investments totaling $15.1 billion in the first half of the year, primarily through mergers rather than IPOs [5][6]. - Sequoia China has been active in mergers, recently acquiring a majority stake in Marshall Group for €1.1 billion (approximately 8.4 billion RMB) and has a significant fundraising capability, completing a 18 billion RMB fundraising in July 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Starbucks' Sale Process - Starbucks has been in the spotlight for a year regarding its potential sale, initially evaluating strategic options including partial stake sales while maintaining significant ownership [8][9]. - The valuation of Starbucks' China business has fluctuated, with estimates ranging from $5 billion to as high as $10 billion, reflecting market uncertainties regarding its growth trajectory amid competition from local brands [9][10]. - Starbucks has indicated it will not sell the entire business, retaining core assets and a stake, which may influence the bidding dynamics by reducing the control premium typically sought by buyers [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is facing controversy in China due to reports of employees being pressured to purchase mooncakes to meet sales targets, leading to concerns about consumer rights and employee treatment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Employee Sales Pressure - Employees claim they are required to meet sales targets of 25 mooncakes for full-time staff and 15 for part-time staff, with unsold items needing to be purchased out of pocket [4][6]. - Some employees have reported spending significant amounts, with one claiming to have "fronted" 15 boxes costing over 3000 yuan [4][5]. - The pressure to sell mooncakes appears to vary by store manager, with some employees stating their managers do not enforce sales targets [4][6]. Group 2: Company Response - Starbucks China has stated that it does not allow employees to purchase mooncakes to meet sales targets and is investigating the claims made by employees [1][5]. - The company encourages customers to buy mooncakes through official channels to protect their consumer rights [5]. Group 3: Market Context - Starbucks has been selling mooncakes in China since 2005 as part of its localization strategy, using them for brand marketing [6]. - Recent financial reports indicate a slight recovery in same-store sales in China, with a 2% year-over-year increase, although average transaction value has decreased by 4% [8]. - Despite some recovery, Starbucks continues to face challenges in the Chinese market, leading to speculation about potential divestment of its Chinese operations [9].

Core Insights - A recent social media post by a part-time Starbucks employee claimed that they were pressured to purchase 15 boxes of mooncakes, totaling nearly 3000 yuan, leading to financial strain [1] - The post sparked significant online discussion, with additional comments revealing that some store managers set sales targets for employees, forcing many to buy products out of pocket [1] - Even part-time positions reportedly have sales targets related to mooncake sales [1] Company Response - On September 12, a reporter contacted Starbucks customer service, which stated that they would verify the claims made in the post and emphasized that employees are not allowed to engage in such practices [2] - The customer service representative highlighted that Starbucks mooncakes are popular due to their flavors and designs, and encouraged customers to purchase through official channels to protect consumer rights [2] Market Activity - A search for "Starbucks mooncakes" on second-hand trading platforms revealed numerous sellers offering mooncake gift boxes at discounts of up to 50% or more, with sales primarily in the form of self-pickup and nationwide delivery vouchers [2] - For example, a mooncake gift box originally priced at 358 yuan is currently being sold for around 150 yuan on the second-hand market [2]

Group 1 - Investment firms, including Carlyle Group, EQT, HongShan Capital Group, and Boyu Capital, are preparing final bids for Starbucks' business in China, with a valuation of up to $5 billion [1][2] - Starbucks plans to retain a significant stake in its Chinese operations, which is its second-largest market after the US [2] - Starbucks' market share in China has decreased from 30% in 2019 to 14% last year, as local competitors like Luckin Coffee have gained ground with lower prices and popular local drinks [3] Group 2 - Luckin Coffee is the largest coffee chain in China, with approximately 24,000 cafes, surpassing Starbucks' 17,000 locations in the US [5] - Both Luckin and another Chinese chain, Cotti Coffee, are expanding into North America, where Starbucks has experienced six consecutive quarters of declining sales [5] - Starbucks' CEO Brian Niccol is focusing on improving US sales by creating a more inviting coffee shop atmosphere, contrasting with the grab-and-go model of Chinese competitors [3]

Group 1 - Starbucks China is in the process of selling its equity, with shortlisted bidders including Carlyle Group, EQT, Sequoia China, and Boyu Capital, among others [1] - Over 20 institutions expressed interest in acquiring Starbucks China, including Luckin Coffee's shareholder Dazhong Capital and tech giant Tencent [1] - The transaction agreement is expected to be reached by the end of October, although specific negotiations have not yet begun [1][2] Group 2 - The valuation of Starbucks China is currently estimated at $5 billion, significantly lower than the previously mentioned $10 billion [2] - The high valuation was attributed to Starbucks China's strong performance in the second quarter, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 8% to $790 million [2] - The potential buyers may form a consortium, including both internet giants and private equity firms, to acquire Starbucks China [2] Group 3 - EQT, a private equity giant, has a strong track record in mergers and acquisitions, with single investments typically ranging from €5 billion to €15 billion [3][4] - EQT's assets under management globally are approximately €270 billion, with €25 billion managed in Asia, primarily acquired through the purchase of BPEA [3] - The leadership team at EQT Asia is noted for their expertise in acquisitions, holding shares obtained through previous purchases, which positions them as significant stakeholders [3]

Core Insights - Starbucks has finalized Carlyle Group, EQT, HongShan Capital Group, Boyu Capital, and Primavera Capital as bidders for its China stake sale, with final offers expected soon [1][2][3] - The company aims to complete the agreement by the end of October 2025, with the China business valued at approximately $5 billion [2][3] - Starbucks plans to retain control of its coffee bean roasting facility in China for quality control, despite divesting control of its operations [2][3] Financial Performance - Starbucks reported strong sales growth in international markets and a third consecutive quarter of revenue growth in China [3] - Comparable-store sales in China increased by 2% in the quarter ending June 29, 2025, recovering from zero growth in the previous quarter [4] Competitive Landscape - The stake sale is a response to declining market share in China, where local brands are increasing competition [3] - To combat competitive pressures, Starbucks has implemented strategies such as lowering prices on select non-coffee beverages and accelerating the introduction of locally tailored products [4]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is in the final stages of negotiations to sell its China business, with potential buyers including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a valuation around $5 billion (approximately 35.8 billion RMB) [1][2][5] Group 1: Sale Process and Valuation - The sale process has reached the final negotiation stage, with a decision expected by the end of October [1] - The valuation of Starbucks China is estimated to be between $5 billion to $6 billion (approximately 35.8 billion to 43 billion RMB), based on expected EBITDA multiples of 10 times its projected EBITDA of $400 million to $500 million for 2025 [2][5] - The competition for the acquisition includes several prominent investment firms, indicating a high level of interest and potential for a significant transaction in the consumer goods sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Starbucks China has seen a decline in market share, dropping from 34% in 2019 to 14% in the previous year, largely due to increased competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee [4][5] - Luckin Coffee has surpassed Starbucks in sales in China, becoming the largest coffee chain in the market, which has pressured Starbucks to reconsider its business strategy [5] - The changing consumer preferences and economic environment have led to increased price sensitivity, challenging Starbucks' premium pricing strategy [5] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Starbucks is exploring partnerships with local investors to enhance supply chain efficiency, local operations, and cost control to better compete with domestic brands [5][6] - The company has previously indicated a reluctance to fully divest its China operations, but recent statements suggest a shift towards considering strategic partnerships [6] - The potential buyers have significant experience in managing and growing consumer brands, which could provide valuable synergies for Starbucks China [3][9][10] Group 4: Market Trends - The global consumer M&A market is experiencing a resurgence, with a reported 30% increase in transaction value, particularly in Asia, where M&A activity has grown by 45% year-on-year [7] - The competitive landscape for acquisitions is intensifying, with various firms actively pursuing opportunities in the Chinese market, reflecting a broader trend of international investment interest [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant interest and ongoing negotiations surrounding the potential sale of Starbucks' China business, highlighting the competitive landscape and the implications for the consumer market in China [3][10][12]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Starbucks has shortlisted several potential buyers for its China business, including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with negotiations expected to conclude by the end of October [3][4]. - The estimated valuation of Starbucks China is around $5 billion (approximately 35.8 billion RMB), making it one of the highest-value divestitures in the consumer sector in recent years [3][4]. - Previous interest in the acquisition has been shown by various firms, including Hillhouse Capital, PAG, and KKR, with some bids valuing the business at 10 times its projected EBITDA of $400 million to $500 million for 2025 [4][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Starbucks' market share in China has significantly declined from 34% in 2019 to 14% last year, primarily due to increased competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee, which has surpassed Starbucks in sales [10][12]. - The changing consumer preferences and economic conditions have pressured Starbucks to adjust its pricing strategy, including lowering prices on some non-coffee beverages [12]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Future Goals - The potential buyers are recognized for their strong track records in managing and growing consumer brands, with firms like Carlyle and Boyu Capital having experience in the food and beverage sector [6][7][17]. - Starbucks aims to expand its store count in China from 8,000 to 20,000, and the ability of potential buyers to achieve this goal may influence the final decision on the sale [8][12]. - The article notes that the involvement of local capital or strategic partners could enhance operational efficiencies and market competitiveness against local brands [12][13].

Group 1 - Starbucks is in the process of selling its controlling stake in its China business, with final bids expected by early October from firms including Carlyle, Hillhouse, Sequoia China, and Boyu Capital [2] - The CEO of Starbucks, Brian Niccol, indicated that the company is looking for suitable partners to expand its presence in China, aiming to open 20,000 to 30,000 stores in the future [2] - Starbucks intends to retain control over its coffee roasting facilities in China to maintain quality, while the specifics of the share sale are still negotiable [2] Group 2 - Luckin Coffee has significantly outperformed Starbucks in China, with a 47.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, reaching 12.36 billion yuan, while Starbucks only saw an 8% increase to 7.9 billion yuan [3] - In Q2, Luckin's same-store sales grew by 13.4%, driven primarily by an increase in cup volume, contrasting with Starbucks' same-store sales growth of only 2% [3] - The competitive landscape in China is prompting domestic capital to pursue Starbucks, as there are still many localized growth opportunities for the company [3]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is in the process of selling its controlling stake in its China operations, with several private equity firms preparing final bids by early October, and a potential agreement by the end of next month [1][2]. Group 1: Sale Process - The final bidders for Starbucks China include Carlyle, Hillhouse, Sequoia China, and Boyu Capital, with Springhill Capital potentially partnering with one of the main bidders [1]. - Starbucks aims to retain control over its coffee roasting facilities in China to maintain quality, while the specifics of the share sale are still negotiable [1]. - CEO Brian Niccol has expressed the company's commitment to the Chinese market, indicating a desire to keep a significant portion of equity in the business [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Luckin Coffee has shown significant growth, with a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2, reaching 12.36 billion yuan, outpacing Starbucks [2]. - Luckin's same-store sales grew by 13.4% in Q2, driven primarily by an increase in cup volume, while Starbucks reported only an 8% revenue growth in China during the same period [4]. - Starbucks' same-store sales increased by 2%, with a 6% rise in transaction volume, but a 4% decline in average transaction value [4].