我们站在新旧周期的交汇处回望： 这一年，股票市场不断积蓄动能 这一年，黄金在多重因素驱动下屡创新高 当时间的指针即将划向2025年的终点， 这一年，债券市场告别单边行情 这一年，银行理财在利率下行中重塑格局 这一年，公募基金整体盈利水平显著回升 2026年，是坚守债券的"沉稳" 还是继续拥抱黄金的"光芒" 是掘金股市的"结构性机会" 还是信赖理财的"稳健底仓" 抑或是将保险作为资产配置的"基石" 新的一年，你会把钱放在哪里？ A股 中信证券：2026年全年上市公司的净利润有望持续改善，预计全年增速4.8%。随着内需政策逐步加码 并落地生效，内需相关品种的ROE有望企稳回升；估值方面，结构性机会的轮动可能是市场常态，而指 数层面有望出现"低波稳行、中枢上移"行情。行业方面，建议关注三大线索：资源/传统制造产业提质 升级、中企出海与全球化、AI进一步拓宽商业化应用。 黄金 中金公司：由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但建议淡化黄金价 格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。预计2026年初，由于美国通胀持续上行，美联储可能放缓宽松 节奏，或对黄金表现形成阶段性压制。而随着2026年5月新 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和 修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。权益方面，预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计 迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景 下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，中信证券预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收 益率或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58- 70美元/桶区间震荡;黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击5000美元/盎 司；铜则在供给约束与电力需求驱动下具备强支撑，预计均价有望上涨至12000美元/吨。汇率方面，人 民币或进入温和升值周期，美元兑人民币汇率中枢有望逐步向6.8靠拢。 中信证券主要观点如下： 上市公司盈利方面，2026年全年上市公司的净利润有望持续改善，预计全年增速4.8%。伴随2026年 CPI、PPI回暖，价格因素对上市公司利润的压制或将逐季缓解。随着内需政策逐步加码并落地生效，内 需相关 ...

资本动向进一步印证市场热度。据不完全统计，2025年"AI+短剧"领域的融资事件至少有9起，总金额 超亿元。其中AI视频生成和AI动漫工业化赛道在2025年收获多轮融资，体现出资本对AI短剧内容生 产"基础设施"的坚定投入。 短剧的热潮也激活了地方经济，多个城市积极布局，开启了"竖店"（拍摄竖屏微短剧的影视基地）争夺 战。报告显示，截至2025年10月20日，2025年中国短剧相关企业数量排名前十的城市分别是：北京、上 海、成都、广州、杭州、深圳、重庆、郑州、武汉和西安。北京以4.68万家的体量断层领先，规模是第 二名上海（1.96万家）的两倍以上。 报告显示，目前已有超10家A股上市公司入局AI短剧赛道，并深耕细分领域。部分企业瞄准AI科幻短剧 赛道，借助AI生成技术打造视觉奇观；另有企业通过自研AI智能体，实现漫剧内容的规模化、标准化 产出；还有玩家聚焦传统文化题材，以技术赋能让经典IP焕发新生。不同赛道的差异化布局折射出行业 对AI商业化应用的多元探索。 中证报中证网讯（记者 黄一灵）近日，合合信息旗下启信宝发布《2025短剧行业观察报告》。 短剧，作为网络影视行业新兴产物，多指每集3分钟至10分钟、全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by global market demand rather than solely domestic factors, with key influences from the China-US relationship and significant events such as trade agreements and US midterm elections [1][5][11]. Configuration Directions - Three major themes to focus on include: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [2][4]. 2. Chinese companies expanding globally, significantly increasing profit growth potential and market capitalization [2][4]. 3. The commercialization of AI, which will continue to expand the technology sector's influence and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises [2][4]. Market Phases - The market is expected to experience a two-phase bull market: "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 focused on technology, and a potential transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026, driven by cyclical recovery and growth in manufacturing [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical industries such as basic chemicals and industrial metals [4]. 2. Technology trends with opportunities in AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [4][8]. 3. Enhanced influence of manufacturing, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post "9·24" with a focus on fundamental improvements and risk management against volatility, particularly in the context of evolving China-US relations and the AI revolution [5][11]. Sector Focus - Recommended sectors include: 1. New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military, machinery, and computing [8][12]. 2. Themes such as new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [8][12]. Overall Market Sentiment - The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued inflow of incremental funds and a focus on sectors that may outperform expectations, particularly in AI and pragmatic cooperation between China and the US [11][12].

Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [2][3] - UBS anticipates that domestic economic activities will maintain resilience, with a potential "low at the beginning, high at the end" growth pattern for 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - CICC forecasts that supply-side policies will focus on enhancing quality consumption while reducing inefficient capacity [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with local special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds increasing in scale [3] - Monetary policy may include two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling about 100 basis points and one to two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points each [3] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift towards a mature market [4] - Earnings for A-shares are projected to recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a more balanced style in 2026, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [5] Industry Trends - Key industry themes include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors from 2026 to 2030, with their GDP contribution increasing by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3] - The macroeconomic environment and innovation trends are favorable for growth styles, with a potential shift in market dynamics due to past capacity reduction cycles [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that A-share companies are transitioning from domestic-focused enterprises to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift in the Chinese capital market from emerging to mature status [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Chinese enterprises are expected to enhance their position in the global value chain, converting their share advantages into pricing power, which lays the foundation for a "low volatility slow bull" market in A-shares [1] - The future performance of A-shares will be influenced by global market demand rather than solely domestic demand, with the China-US geopolitical landscape affecting market rhythm and smoothness [1] Group 2 - Three key industry configurations are highlighted: first, the upgrading of resource and traditional manufacturing industries, which will enhance pricing power and profit margins; second, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, significantly expanding profit growth potential and market capitalization ceilings; third, the further commercialization of AI, which will continue to drive trends in the technology sector and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese companies [2]

Core Points - The 138th Canton Fair will be held from October 15 to November 4 in Guangzhou, focusing on meeting enterprise demands and promoting transactions [1] - The number of new product release events has increased to over 600, representing a 37% year-on-year growth [3] Group 1: Innovation and Technology - 63% of the new products launched at the fair incorporate innovative technologies, while 48% feature functional upgrades [4] - 47% of the new products reflect green and low-carbon initiatives, and 31% utilize innovative materials, showcasing the vitality of foreign trade innovation [4] Group 2: Forums and Industry Trends - The fair will organize 13 forums around four major themes, involving over 100 institutions and approximately 120 guests to discuss industry trends such as trade digitization and AI commercialization [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Matching - The "Trade Bridge" initiative will enhance supply-demand matching, focusing on key industries like new energy, home appliances, and building materials [6] - The initiative includes collecting and publishing procurement lists from buyers to facilitate multiple rounds of matching with exhibitors [6] Group 4: Smart Medical Zone - A new Smart Medical Zone will feature 140 booths and 47 industry representative companies, showcasing products like medical robots and intelligent diagnostic tools [6] - The Smart Medical Zone aims to enhance the experience of exhibitors and facilitate connections within the digital healthcare service and application sectors [8]

Group 1: Starbucks China Sale - Starbucks China is in the final stages of a sale, with potential buyers including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, expected to finalize by the end of October [1] - The sale attracted interest from over 20 institutions, with Starbucks potentially retaining 30% of the equity, ensuring it remains a major shareholder in its Chinese operations [1] - For the third fiscal quarter of 2025, Starbucks reported total revenue of $9.456 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while net profit fell by 47.1% to $558 million [1] Group 2: Performance in China - Starbucks China experienced a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year, reaching $790 million, with same-store sales up by 2% [2] - The number of Starbucks stores in China reached 7,828, with 70 new stores opened and expansion into 17 new county-level markets [2] - The company faces challenges from domestic premium coffee brands and has reduced prices on non-coffee products to enhance overall sales performance [2] Group 3: Tea Baidao's Coffee Initiative - Tea Baidao has launched a trial of freshly brewed coffee products in select stores in Guangdong and Sichuan, featuring a menu with 10 coffee options priced between 6.9 yuan and 12.9 yuan [3] - Daily sales of coffee products at trial locations average 40-50 cups, indicating a positive reception despite competition from popular tea drinks [3] - This is not Tea Baidao's first venture into coffee, as it previously introduced a coffee sub-brand called "Kafei" in 2023 [3] Group 4: Alipay and Luckin Coffee Collaboration - Alipay has launched the first AI payment system in mainland China in collaboration with Luckin Coffee, allowing users to place orders and make payments through AI interaction [4][5] - This initiative represents a significant advancement in the commercialization of AI applications in consumer transactions [5] Group 5: Coffee Robotics Investment - Shanghai Heitun COFE+ has announced the global launch of its sixth-generation coffee robot and is initiating a Series B financing round, with the first round led by Da Pu Asset Management [7] - The company, founded in 2018, has developed coffee robots that are now operational in 15 provinces in China and exported to over 50 countries across five continents [7]

Group 1: Starbucks China Sale - Starbucks China is in the final stages of a sale, with potential buyers including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, expected to finalize by the end of October [1] - The sale attracted over 20 interested institutions, with Starbucks potentially retaining 30% of the equity, ensuring it remains the major shareholder in Starbucks China [1] - As of the third fiscal quarter of 2025, Starbucks reported total revenue of $9.456 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while net profit dropped by 47.1% to $558 million [1] Group 2: Performance in China - Starbucks China experienced a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year, reaching $790 million, with same-store sales up by 2% [2] - The number of Starbucks stores in China reached 7,828, with 70 new stores opened and expansion into 17 new county-level markets [2] - The company faces challenges from domestic premium coffee brands and has reduced prices on non-coffee products to enhance overall sales performance [2] Group 3: Tea Baidao's Coffee Initiative - Tea Baidao has launched a trial of freshly brewed coffee products in select stores in Guangdong and Sichuan, featuring a menu with 10 coffee options priced between 6.9 yuan and 12.9 yuan [3] - Daily sales of coffee products in trial stores average 40-50 cups, with peak times requiring a wait of about 15 minutes [3] - This is not Tea Baidao's first venture into coffee, as it previously introduced a coffee sub-brand "Kafei" in 2023 [3] Group 4: Alipay and Luckin Coffee Collaboration - Alipay has launched the first AI payment system in mainland China in collaboration with Luckin Coffee, allowing users to place orders and make payments through an AI assistant [4][5] - This initiative represents a significant advancement in the commercialization of AI applications in consumer transactions [5] Group 5: Shanghai Heitun COFE+ Coffee Robot Financing - Shanghai Heitun COFE+ has announced the global launch of its sixth-generation coffee robot and is initiating Series B financing, with the first round led by Da Pu Asset Management [7] - The company, established in 2018, has developed coffee robots that are now operational in 15 provinces in China and exported to over 50 countries across five continents [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of the year, driven by fundamental recovery and inflows of capital from the mainland, outperforming the A-share market [1][2][3] - The historical context indicates that the current situation of Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares is reminiscent of the period from 2012 to 2014, characterized by weak macroeconomic recovery and significant technological transformation [2][3] - The article highlights that AI applications are entering an accelerated phase, with Hong Kong technology companies having a first-mover advantage, which positions them to lead the ongoing bull market [1][3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment and industry trends today are similar to those from 2012 to 2014, with a weak recovery in the economy and a significant focus on AI applications driving growth [3][4] - The article notes that Hong Kong's technology sector has a higher proportion of software applications compared to A-shares, with 56% of the total market capitalization in software and content sectors, compared to only 24% in A-shares [4] - The competitive edge of Hong Kong technology companies in the AI field is emphasized, suggesting they are well-positioned to benefit from the AI industry boom, with potential for valuation increases due to strong fundamentals and improved capital flows [4]