长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 外卖大战中的瑞幸咖啡（OTC：LKNCY）晒出成绩单。 日前，瑞幸咖啡发布2025年第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩。财报显示，2025年全年，公司实现营业 收入492.88亿元，同比增长42.97%；净利润36亿元，同比增长21.93%。 不过，第四季度，公司出现了增收不增利的窘境：营业收入增逾30%，而净利润下降39%。公司解释， 第四季度同店销售额与盈利表现受到季节性、外卖平台补贴变化、销量结构等多重因素综合影响。 瑞幸咖啡业绩增长，与门店扩张直接相关。截至2025年末，公司全球门店达到3.1万家，当年净增8708 家。 数据显示，2025年一、二、三季度，公司实现的营业收入分别为88.65亿元、123.59亿元、152.87亿元， 同比增长41.21%、47.08%、50.16%，均为快速增长；对应的净利润为5.25亿元、12.51亿元、12.78亿 元，同比变动731.28%、43.56%、-2.74%。 2026年，瑞幸咖啡继续门店扩张步伐。不过，公司不再局限于卖咖啡，正向全时段、全品类现制饮品平 台转型。2025年，公司非咖啡类饮品杯量占比超过20%。 瑞幸咖 ...

外卖/即时零售补贴对咖啡与茶饮的核心冲击集中在两点：一是对同店数据造成 阶段性干扰与波动；二是压制产品定价并传导至门店端利润率，进而对市场定 消费洞察：春节后连锁业态龙头的经营情况变化 20260227 摘要 瑞幸、古茗、锅圈等连锁品牌在 2026 年初表现出稳健的同店增长，增 速普遍达到中高个位数，部分公司甚至超过 10%，显示出较强的经营韧 性。 2025 年外卖/即时零售补贴对咖啡、茶饮龙头企业造成阶段性冲击，主 要体现在干扰同店数据和压制产品定价，但 2026 年一季度以来，价格 端出现企稳信号，补贴冲击方向性减弱。 品牌商在定价和渠道结构上出现积极变化，包括部分连锁品牌提价或倾 向于提价，瑞幸自有平台订单占比缓慢回升，减少对第三方补贴的依赖。 平台补贴投放呈现结构性选择，更倾向于 30 元以上客单价品类，咖啡 与茶饮由于客单价较低，对平台吸引力有限，支撑了补贴冲击边际降温 的判断。 以瑞幸为代表，利润率低点与杯单价低点可能出现在 2025 年四季度， 2026 年一季度具备边际上行的基础，利润率环比走差的担忧已明显消 除。 Q&A 春节前后渠道调研显示，连锁咖啡、连锁茶饮、火锅食材/烧烤以及量贩零食 ...

库迪咖啡对9.9元咖啡"踩刹车"。 1月31日，有市场消息称，库迪咖啡发布门店价格策略和活动调整通知，宣布"全场9.9元不限量"活动将 于2026年1月31日24时正式结束。2026年2月1日0时起将开启特价专区，部分产品仍然延续9.9元不限 量。2026年2月1日0时起，库迪自有平台内非特价活动产品，均按零售价售卖。 库迪咖啡回应《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，部分产品延续特价9.9元不限量，其 全线产品将持续参与外卖平台各类补贴活动。2023年2月，库迪咖啡率先发起9.9元促销活动，并于当年 5月进一步加码，全场咖啡8.8元。 三年不到，低价补贴塑造了咖啡市场的新格局，品牌之间的厮杀也逐步白热化。但在过去一年，不少品 牌在悄悄涨价，瑞幸咖啡的9.9元咖啡补贴范围缩小，蜜雪冰城的柠檬水悄然上涨1元，奈雪的茶早餐套 餐从9.9元起涨至15.9元起，喜茶强调差异化新品，上新的产品多款突破20元…… 库迪的万店规模、品牌认知和消费者心智，都伴随着9.9元战略在这三年中完成积累。2025年2月，库迪 咖啡首次对外透露了盈利消息。据称，公司从2024年5月份开始实现持续盈利，而且整体收入一直在稳 定增加 ...

对此，库迪咖啡方面回复《每日经济新闻》记者称，部分产品延续特价9.9元不限量，全线产品持续参与外卖平台各类补贴活动，库迪始终致力于为消费 者提供高品质高性价比的咖啡产品，欢迎大家多多体验。 2023年2月，库迪咖啡发起9.9元促销活动，并于当年5月进一步从9.9元减至8.8元。2024年库迪咖啡首席策略官李颖波曾公开表示，9.9元促销将持续三年， 对联营商的补贴将持续到2026年底。或得益于9.9元咖啡的助攻，库迪咖啡官网信息显示，品牌门店数量超过1.8万家。 值得注意的是，1月26日起，肯德基对部分外送产品价格进行调整，平均调整金额为0.8元，堂食价格保持不变。 具体来看，肯德基汉堡品类中，汁汁和牛堡外送价36.5元，较堂食32.5元高出4元；经典单品吮指原味鸡1块装外送与堂食价差2.5元，6块装规格价差则放 大至15元。 库迪宣布取消9.9元咖啡活动。 1月31日，记者获悉，库迪咖啡"全场9.9元不限量"活动将于2026年1月31日24时正式结束。2026年2月1日将开启特价专区，部分产品仍然延续9.9元不限 量。2026年2月1日0时起，库迪自有平台内非特价活动产品，均按零售价售卖。 对于库迪新店来说， ...

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee has successfully transformed its brand image with the opening of a new garden-themed store in Shanghai, attracting significant attention and positive feedback from consumers, particularly younger demographics. Group 1: Store Concept and Design - The new garden-themed store features a luxurious design reminiscent of old Shanghai, with elements such as arched doorways, decorative ironwork, and vintage lighting, creating an immersive experience for customers [1][3] - The store layout includes a first floor for ordering and a second floor designed as a coffee-sharing lounge, enhancing the customer experience while maintaining efficient service [3] Group 2: Pricing and Product Offering - Despite the upscale ambiance, the product offerings and pricing remain unchanged, with customers still able to purchase coffee for 9.9 yuan, which has led to positive reactions regarding the value for money [5] - Social media users have praised the store for providing a high-quality experience at an affordable price, reinforcing the perception of Luckin Coffee as a value-driven brand [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - Other beverage brands are also exploring unique store concepts, with an increasing focus on larger spaces and enhanced customer experiences, as seen with brands like Mixue and Heytea [9][10] - The trend of integrating local culture into store designs is becoming more prevalent, with brands using thematic elements to create a deeper connection with consumers and enhance brand recognition [14][16] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The dual strategy of maintaining efficient small stores while investing in distinctive flagship locations allows brands to enhance their market presence and foster emotional connections with consumers [16] - The shift towards experiential retail, where stores serve as content carriers for brand identity, is becoming essential in a market characterized by product homogeneity [16]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the controversy regarding the 100-year shelf life of COSTA's organic Pu'er tea, which has led to significant public scrutiny and the subsequent removal of the product from e-commerce platforms [2] - COSTA's business in China has been under pressure, with reports indicating that the company closed 111 stores in 2023 and an additional 97 stores by November 2024, while only opening 33 new stores, resulting in a total of 389 stores [3] - The company has struggled to compete with major players like Starbucks and Luckin Coffee, which have significantly larger store counts in China, with Starbucks operating 7,596 stores and Luckin over 26,000 stores [3] Group 2 - The acquisition of COSTA by Coca-Cola for $5.1 billion in 2018 aimed to enhance its presence in the ready-to-drink coffee market, but has led to challenges in store innovation and operational efficiency [3] - The appointment of a new manager to oversee the retail business in China comes amid difficulties related to operational segmentation and slow progress in franchise plans, complicating efforts to revitalize the brand [3] - The recent controversy surrounding the tea product adds to the negative perception of COSTA's operations in China, further complicating its market position [2][3]

Core Insights - Tim Hortons China reported a total revenue of 358 million RMB for Q3 2025, with system sales reaching 420 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [1] - The company achieved a positive net increase in store count and continued strong growth in system sales, with same-store sales increasing by 3.3% [1] - The total number of stores reached 1,030, with 551 self-operated and 479 franchised locations, expanding coverage to 91 cities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The other income profit increased by 58.2% year-on-year, driven by stable cash flow and profitability from franchise and retail businesses [1] - Franchise store count rose to 479, contributing to other income of 75.13 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25% [2] Group 2: Membership and Product Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of registered members reached 27.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with an average of over 27,100 members per store [3] - The company adopted an aggressive product strategy, launching seasonal beverage combinations to capture market share, including a focus on summer drinks [3] - The dual strategy of promoting both coffee and non-coffee products has significantly contributed to beverage sales growth, with record monthly sales achieved in July [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee is facing significant challenges ahead of its potential re-listing, with a notable discrepancy between its impressive revenue growth and stagnant profits, raising concerns about its underlying business model and operational efficiency [1][9]. Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's recent quarterly report shows a substantial increase in revenue and a rapid rise in store count, nearing competitors like Heytea. However, net profit remains unchanged, indicating deeper issues within its cost structure [3]. - The company spent nearly 2.9 billion on delivery services in just three months, more than doubling from the previous year, which highlights the financial strain from its delivery model [3][14]. Competitive Landscape - Intense price competition is evident, with competitors like Kudi Coffee drastically lowering prices, forcing Luckin to reduce its own prices from 9.9 yuan to 6.9 yuan, which has not resulted in a proportional increase in customer loyalty [5]. - The competitive pressure is compounded by Starbucks' aggressive expansion strategy in China and the emergence of Kudi Coffee, which closely mimics Luckin's business model [7]. Market Perception and Capital Concerns - Luckin's eagerness to re-list is driven by a desire to restore its image post-2019 financial scandal. However, the market remains skeptical, as the current financial performance does not convincingly demonstrate a sustainable profit model [9]. - The stock price increase in the pink sheet market appears speculative, with long-term investors scrutinizing the company's fundamentals for potential weaknesses [9]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company recognizes that relying on subsidies is not a viable long-term strategy, as competitors are enhancing their supply chain capabilities to reduce costs and improve efficiency [11]. - Luckin must address its supply chain and store management issues to avoid superficial growth and ensure long-term viability in a competitive market [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee, once embroiled in a financial fraud scandal and relegated to the OTC market, is now aiming to return to the US main board with nearly 30,000 stores, supported by impressive third-quarter performance metrics [1][16]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, Luckin Coffee reported total revenue of 15.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [1]. - The average monthly active customer count surpassed 112 million, setting a new record, while same-store sales for self-operated stores grew by 14.4% [1]. - Revenue from cooperative stores approached 3.8 billion yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 62.3% [1]. Group 2: Store Expansion - Luckin Coffee has accelerated its store expansion through a "franchise model," reaching over 10,000 stores in June 2023 and projected to exceed 29,214 stores by September 2025 [2][4]. - The potential upper limit for store openings is estimated at 39,000, indicating room for nearly 10,000 additional stores [4]. - Despite the rapid growth, there are signs of potential challenges, such as a decline in same-store sales growth for self-operated stores in Q3 2024 [5]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - The surge in delivery costs, which increased by 211.4% to 2.89 billion yuan in Q3 2025, has negatively impacted profit margins [8]. - The operating profit margins for self-operated stores decreased to 21.0% and 17.5% in Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, compared to 21.5% and 23.5% in the same periods of 2024 [8]. - The reliance on delivery services poses a risk to profitability, as the company acknowledges that the current model may not be sustainable in the long term [8][9]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Competition - Luckin Coffee's pricing strategy has locked it into a "9.9 yuan" price perception, which may limit its ability to adjust prices in response to market conditions [11]. - The company faces competition not only from coffee brands like Starbucks but also from the tea market, which influences its pricing strategy [11][12]. - The brand's recent collaborations and product launches have not significantly shifted consumer perception or created new standout products, indicating a potential stagnation in innovation [11]. Group 5: International Expansion - Luckin Coffee has opened 118 overseas stores, a small fraction compared to its domestic footprint, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [13][16]. - The company faces challenges in adapting its business model to diverse international markets, which require localized strategies and higher operational costs [14][15]. - The overseas expansion is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, but the immediate focus remains on ensuring profitability at existing store levels [16].

Core Insights - Starbucks China has recently sold 60% of its business to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, leading to immediate changes in the store environment, particularly in background music [5][6] - The new music selection features nostalgic Chinese pop songs from the 80s and 90s, which has received mixed reactions from customers, with some finding it disruptive [3][9] - The shift in music and atmosphere reflects broader challenges Starbucks faces in the Chinese market, including increased competition and changing consumer behavior [4][18] Business Changes - The sale of 60% of Starbucks China to Boyu Capital for $4 billion marks a significant shift in ownership and strategy [5] - The introduction of Chinese pop songs aims to create a more localized experience, although it has led to complaints about noise and disruption [9][10] - The music change is part of a limited-time promotion to celebrate the 25th anniversary of a specific product, indicating a strategic marketing effort [10] Market Competition - Starbucks is facing intense competition from local brands like Bawang Chaji and discount coffee chains such as Luckin Coffee, which are eroding its market share [18][20] - Financial reports indicate that Starbucks China achieved revenue of $832 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025, a 6% year-over-year increase, while Luckin Coffee reported a revenue of 10.18 billion yuan, a 41.4% increase [20] - The competitive landscape is forcing Starbucks to reconsider its positioning and customer engagement strategies in China [17][20] Customer Experience - The change in background music has led to a decline in the quality of the customer experience, with some patrons feeling that the atmosphere has become less sophisticated [4][9] - The store environment has been affected by disruptive behaviors from certain customer groups, prompting Starbucks to adapt its approach to maintain a desirable atmosphere [10][16] - The concept of "third space," which was central to Starbucks' brand identity, is being challenged as the company navigates these changes in customer behavior and market dynamics [17][18]