Core Insights - Softbank has approved a second installment of $22.5 billion to complete its $30 billion investment in OpenAI [1] Investment Details - The total investment in OpenAI amounts to $30 billion, with the latest installment being $22.5 billion [1]

Core Insights - Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan expressed gratitude towards President Trump and the U.S. government, emphasizing their role in restoring America's semiconductor dominance [1][2] - The relationship with the federal government is deemed crucial for Intel's turnaround and aligns with national goals of technological independence [3][4] Financial Performance - Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $13.65 billion, a 3% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst estimates of $13.14 billion [4] - The company's profit for the quarter was $0.23 per share, significantly exceeding consensus figures of $0.01 per share [4] Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Intel's stock rose by 3.36% to close at $38.16 per share, with an additional increase of 8.44% in pre-market trading on the following day [5] - The stock is noted for its strong momentum, scoring high in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [5]

Group 1 - SoftBank Group is attracting market attention with its high-yield dollar bonds, particularly a $2.9 billion hybrid bond that may face significant pressure due to its lower priority compared to senior bonds, necessitating a higher yield to attract investors [1] - The hybrid bond set a yield of 8.25% for bonds maturing in 2065, while ordinary bonds maturing in 2035 yield only 6.8%, highlighting the cost pressure associated with the hybrid bonds [1] Group 2 - SoftBank is accelerating its investment in AI unicorn OpenAI, having led a funding round in April that valued OpenAI at $300 billion, with a commitment to invest $30 billion by year-end, though only $7.5 billion has been invested so far [5] - To address funding gaps, SoftBank is diversifying its financing strategies, including negotiating margin loans secured by Arm Holdings shares and selling T-Mobile US stock, while issuing a record $4.1 billion yen bond in Japan [5][8] - Traditional bank loans are largely absent in SoftBank's financing efforts, with its bond holdings exceeding bank loans by more than double as of June [8] Group 3 - The Vision Fund's poor performance is exacerbating funding pressures, limiting SoftBank's ability to attract large institutional investors, and its complex corporate structure puts it at a disadvantage in the AI race [8] - Rating agencies are closely monitoring SoftBank's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, with S&P indicating a potential downgrade if LTV exceeds 25%, which could happen if OpenAI equity and other investments are included [9] - In contrast, Oracle, a partner in SoftBank's "Stargate" initiative, maintains an investment-grade rating despite rising leverage and negative free cash flow, supported by its leading position in enterprise software and cloud infrastructure [9]

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank is restarting its overseas bond issuance, aiming to raise funds for investments in the artificial intelligence sector, despite experiencing a decline in stock price at the market opening [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - SoftBank plans to issue a total of $20 billion in bonds, including $9 billion in hybrid bonds maturing in 2061 with an initial interest rate of 7.625% and $11 billion in hybrid bonds maturing in 2065 with an initial interest rate of 8.25% [1][2]. - The bonds will be offered in overseas markets excluding Japan and the United States, targeting institutional investors [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company is making significant investments in AI, including a partnership with OpenAI and Oracle to build five AI data centers in the U.S., with a total investment expected to exceed $400 billion over three years [3]. - SoftBank is also planning to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI and has signed a $6.5 billion agreement to acquire Ampere Computing Holdings [3].

Core Insights - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is strategically binding major tech giants to its AI initiatives, creating a robust ecosystem that ties the industry's fate to a startup that has yet to turn a profit [1][2] - Recent high-profile deals led by Altman have resulted in significant market reactions, with a combined market value increase of $630 billion for involved companies following announcements [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - Altman has orchestrated a series of high-stakes deals, including a $500 billion "Stargate" project with SoftBank and a $1 trillion collaboration with Nvidia [2][9][22] - Oracle signed a $300 billion contract with OpenAI, leading to a nearly 40% surge in its stock price [16] - AMD and Broadcom have also entered into significant agreements with OpenAI, further solidifying the competitive landscape [28][34] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among tech giants, driving them to invest heavily in AI capabilities [3][9] - Microsoft's cautious approach to its partnership with OpenAI reflects concerns over financial risks associated with Altman's ambitious plans [10][13][15] - Nvidia's willingness to provide financial support and chip rentals to OpenAI indicates a shift from product sales to service and financial backing [26] Group 3: Financial Implications - OpenAI's projected power consumption goal of 250 gigawatts by 2033 raises questions about the sustainability of its financial model, given its current revenue of $13 billion [4][14] - The interdependencies created by these partnerships could lead to significant financial risks for companies involved, particularly if OpenAI struggles to meet its obligations [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issues, and macro - economic news. It maintains a buy recommendation on the FAEACO 12.814 Perp bond, which has gained about 20 pts in the past two weeks [2]. - SoftBank Group's new bond issues are analyzed, with estimated fair values for SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s at around 7.6% and 8.4% respectively [4][8][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the TW lifers/BBLTB sub curve/HYUELE curve/PETMK curve tightened by 1 - 3 bps. There were two - way flows on JP/KR/AU front - end FRNs from PBs [2]. - Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s edged 0.1 pt firmer with light flows, while Yankee AT1s opened cautiously in London. BNP papers recovered after a previous plunge [2]. - Chinese IG benchmarks tightened by 1 - 2 bps. In Greater China higher - beta space, NWDEVL 28 - 31s were up 0.6 - 1.5 pts, but NWDEVL Perps were down 0.3 - 1.3 pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 0.4 pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased by 0.4 - 0.6 pt after Moody's downgrade. YUZHOU 27 lost 0.7 pt. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s led the space and rose 3.2 - 4.4 pts [2]. - In LGFV space, there were mixed, light two - way flows. RMs and AMs were topping up IG USD and AAA - guaranteed issues, and flows on higher - yielding papers were sporadic [3]. Morning Update - This morning, the new ASBBNK 4.155 30 tightened 1 bp from initial issuance at T + 60, and ASBBNK Float 30 tightened 10 bps from RO at SOFR+90. The new GSCCOR 4.25 30 tightened 1 bp from pricing at T + 77 [4]. - The new GEZHOU 4.25 Perp traded up to 0.1 pt higher with light flows. SOFTBKs were unchanged, and LGELECs were unchanged after S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers included VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 (price 69.2, change 4.4) and NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 (price 72.7, change 1.5). Top underperformers included NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 48.8, change - 1.3) and YUZHOU 7 06/30/27 (price 12.0, change - 0.7) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, the S&P was flat (+0.00%), the Dow rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16%. UST yields were lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.45%/3.56%/3.98%/4.55% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments on SoftBank - SoftBank Group proposes to issue 35.5NC5.5 and 40NC10 Reg S USD subordinated bonds (S&P: B+) and 37NC7 EUR subordinated bonds for general corporate purposes [8]. - The fair value of the new SOFTBK 61 (first call Apr'31) is estimated at around 7.6% vs IPT at 7.875% - 8%, and for the new SOFTBK 65 (first call Oct'35) at around 8.4% vs IPT at 8.5% - 8.625% [9]. - The bonds have step - up mechanisms, and will receive 50% equity credit from S&P and JCR until the first reset date. SoftBank has a track record of calling its bonds on the first call date [10]. - In Jun'25, SoftBank's investment portfolio was valued at about USD269.6 bn, with 76% in listed shares (about USD205 bn). It held cash of about USD25.3 bn and standalone net debts of about USD45.9 bn, with an LTV ratio of 17.0% [11][12]. - While it has completed refinancing for the current fiscal year, there is a medium - term refinancing requirement in 2028 - 31, but it has access to diverse funding channels [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced new issues include ASB Bank (USD500/300 mn, 5 - year, 4.155%/SOFR+90), China Energy Overseas Investment (USD100/100 mn, 3 - year/PerpNC5, 3.8%/4.25%), GS Caltex Corporation (USD300 mn, 5 - year, 4.25%), and Republic of Kazakhstan (USD1500 mn, 5 - year, 4.412%) [16]. - Pipeline new issues include Avation Plc, China Three Gorges Corporation, Softbank Group, and The Republic of Korea with various tenors and coupon rates [17]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, there were 158 onshore credit bonds issued with an amount of RMB156 bn. Month - to - date, 910 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB889 bn, a 31.1% yoy increase [18]. - S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable, and the Republic of Indonesia is looking to price 5 - year/10 - year dim sum bonds tomorrow [18]. - Other corporate news includes S&P revising the outlook of Japfa Comfeed to stable from negative, NWD denying LME on perps, San Miguel obtaining a USD1.5 bn syndicated loan, Sun Hung Kai Properties announcing a USD10 bn debt instruments issuance programme, and Woodside Energy's 9M25 oil and gas output rising 5% yoy [25].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shift in AI investment from algorithm development to foundational infrastructure, highlighting a recent $40 billion acquisition of a major data center and Google's $15 billion investment in an AI hub in India [3][4][5] - It emphasizes the increasing capital expenditure on data centers, with U.S. spending projected to reach $40 billion annually by mid-2025, a 30% increase from the previous year [8] - A McKinsey report estimates that global investment in data centers to meet computing demands could reach $6.7 trillion by 2030, with over $5 trillion allocated for AI workloads [10] Investment Trends - The article notes a "gravity return" in AI investment, where the focus has shifted from lightweight algorithms to heavy infrastructure, including power supply and cooling systems [12][13] - Major companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are becoming power suppliers, indicating a new "digital gold rush" where capital is the primary driver [18] - The investment landscape is evolving, with a growing concern about the long payback periods and high costs associated with AI infrastructure [22][23] Market Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with U.S. AI sector price-to-earnings ratios dropping from 58 times in 2023 to around 35 times, indicating a market entering a "reporting cycle" where financial metrics are scrutinized [26][27] - There is a growing divide in the AI market, with large model companies struggling financially while smaller model firms thrive, reflecting a reversal in the wealth effect of AI [34] Energy and Resource Challenges - The article raises concerns about the energy consumption of AI, noting that a large data center's annual electricity usage can equal that of a city with 100,000 residents [42] - It discusses the societal implications of AI's resource demands, including water shortages and energy disputes in regions hosting data centers [46][47] - The competition for energy resources is intensifying globally, with countries vying for computing power and energy supply, marking a shift from data sovereignty to computing sovereignty [48] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current AI investment cycle is characterized by a mix of excitement and anxiety, with investors grappling with the slow realization of returns [25][29] - It posits that the true challenge for AI lies not in algorithms but in energy supply, as the industry faces a "big appetite revolution" [40][44] - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the cyclical nature of technological belief, suggesting that while AI offers potential, it also raises questions about sustainability and societal impact [51][63]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2][4] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 3.135% [3] Company Performance - Notable declines in major companies include: - SoftBank Group: down 10.37% to 22,335.0 yen [2] - Sumitomo Metal Mining: down 6.09% to 4,977.0 yen [2] - SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both fell over 1% [4] - Other companies with significant drops include: - Scully Group: down 5.04% [2] - Fujikura: down 3.54% [2] - Kuroda Electric Industry: down 3.21% [2] - LASERTEC Semiconductor: down 3.14% [2] - Mitsui Mining: down 3.14% [2] Economic Policy Impact - The appointment of Fumio Kishida as Japan's first female Prime Minister has led to a surge in the Nikkei 225 index, reaching historical highs [5] - Experts suggest that Kishida's expansionary economic policies may stimulate short-term growth but could lead to long-term risks, including increased debt and inflation [5] Gold Market Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce [5] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, marking a daily drop of 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [7] - Factors influencing gold prices include reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking by investors [7]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs recently, influenced by the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, but experts warn of potential long-term risks associated with her economic policies [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 1% [2] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, experiencing a single-day drop of $250, or 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [4] - The silver market also faced pressure, with spot silver dropping over 1.17% [2] Influencing Factors - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to reduced risk appetite, a strengthening dollar, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation following recent historic highs [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including a joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished safe-haven demand [5] - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with analysts expecting a recovery in gold prices in the coming months [5]

Core Insights - Sam Altman has constructed a "too big to fail" AI business ecosystem by leveraging the scarcity of computing power and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among tech giants [1][3] - Altman's strategic partnerships with major tech companies have tightly bound their fates to OpenAI, creating a seemingly endless demand for computing resources [3][4] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - Altman has orchestrated significant deals, including a $500 billion "Stargate" project with SoftBank and a $1 trillion collaboration with Nvidia, which has deepened the ties between these companies and OpenAI [3][6][12] - Oracle signed a $300 billion contract with OpenAI, leading to a nearly 40% surge in its stock price, showcasing the market's reaction to these partnerships [3][11] - AMD and Broadcom have also entered the fray, with AMD's stock soaring 24% after announcing a deal with OpenAI [16][19] Group 2: Market Reactions and Financial Implications - The announcements of these partnerships resulted in a combined market value increase of $630 billion for the involved companies, driving tech stocks to new historical highs [3][4] - OpenAI's revenue is only $13 billion, while its computing power bills could reach thousands of billions, raising concerns about financial sustainability and potential market bubbles [4][14] - Microsoft's cautious approach to its partnership with OpenAI reflects a strategic risk management decision, allowing competitors to take on the financial burden while retaining key technological advantages [10][11] Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies like Nvidia and AMD racing to secure their positions in the AI ecosystem, driven by Altman's FOMO strategy [16][20] - Nvidia's shift from merely selling products to providing services and financial support to OpenAI indicates a strategic pivot to maintain its competitive edge [13][20] - The influx of competitors into the AI space is further solidifying the "trillion-dollar closed loop" that Altman has created around OpenAI [20]