Summary of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Sector**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: HKD 4,787,479 million (USD 613,996 million) [13][5] Key Discussion Points 1. **Strong Growth Prospects**: - Tencent's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, driven by robust performance in domestic games and advertising. Revenue growth for domestic games is revised from 8% to 13% for 2025 [2][9] - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 180,022 million for 1Q25, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase [17][9] 2. **Game Performance**: - Domestic games revenue grew by 24% year-over-year, significantly above the consensus of 15%, with key titles like Honour of Kings and Delta Force contributing to this growth [18][9] - International games revenue also saw a 23% increase, driven by titles such as Brawl Stars and PUBG Mobile [19][9] 3. **Advertising and Marketing Services**: - Marketing services revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, supported by higher user engagement and AI enhancements to the ad platform [21][9] - Video Account ad revenue grew over 60% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for advertising tools [21][9] 4. **AI Integration**: - Tencent is integrating AI features into its Weixin ecosystem, which is expected to enhance content generation and improve advertising effectiveness over time [2][9] - The company is leveraging its unique social graphs and community capabilities to differentiate its AI offerings from competitors [3][9] 5. **Financial Performance**: - Non-IFRS net income for 1Q25 was RMB 61,329 million, a 22% increase year-over-year [17][9] - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2 percentage points to 56% [23][9] 6. **Capital Expenditure and Share Buybacks**: - Tencent plans to repurchase at least HKD 80 billion worth of shares in 2025, having already repurchased HKD 21 billion year-to-date [54][56] - The company incurred RMB 27 billion in capital expenditures in 1Q25, representing 15% of revenue [17][9] 7. **Future Outlook**: - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 728,386 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [53][9] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 630, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% from the current share price of HKD 521 [9][13] Financial Highlights - **Revenue Breakdown for 1Q25**: - Value-Added Services (VAS): RMB 92,133 million, up 17% YoY - Marketing Services: RMB 31,853 million, up 20% YoY - Fintech and Business Services: RMB 54,907 million, up 5% YoY [17][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025 EPS estimate raised to CNY 28.72, reflecting a 1.6% increase from previous estimates [6][9] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include regulatory challenges in the gaming sector, macroeconomic slowdowns affecting advertising budgets, and changes in user preferences [59][9] Conclusion - Tencent Holdings continues to demonstrate strong growth across its gaming and advertising segments, with significant investments in AI and share buybacks. The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, supported by robust financial performance and strategic initiatives.

Group 1 - Astrada Advisors provides actionable recommendations aimed at enhancing portfolio performance and uncovering alpha opportunities, backed by a strong track record in investment research at leading global investment banks [1] - The company specializes in technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors across North America and Asia, excelling in identifying high-potential investments and navigating complex industries [1] - Astrada Advisors leverages extensive local and global experience to offer unique insights on market developments, regulatory changes, and emerging risks [1] Group 2 - The research conducted by Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, providing a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [1] - The focus of the company is to empower investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics, especially in volatile markets or when exploring new trends [1] - Astrada Advisors is committed to delivering superior insights to facilitate informed investment decisions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1] Core Insights - Tencent's 1Q25 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The NON-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22%, also exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The target price range is set between 545.69 and 606.33 HKD, with the current price at 508.00 HKD [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue structure for 1Q25 is as follows: - Gaming: 59.5 billion CNY (33% of total revenue), YOY +24% - Financial Technology and Enterprise Services: 54.9 billion CNY (31% of total revenue), YOY +5% - Social Networks: 32.6 billion CNY (18% of total revenue), YOY +7% - Marketing Services: 31.9 billion CNY (18% of total revenue), YOY +20% [15][26] Business Performance - The gaming segment continues to show strong performance, with both domestic and international markets exceeding expectations. Domestic gaming revenue was 42.9 billion CNY, YOY +24%, while international gaming revenue was 16.6 billion CNY, YOY +23% [20][18] - The social network segment's revenue growth was driven by mobile games, TME membership growth, and mini-game revenue sharing [26] - Marketing services revenue exceeded expectations due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions, reaching 31.9 billion CNY, YOY +20% [30] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion CNY, 784.5 billion CNY, and 835.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 7% [5] - The NON-IFRS net profit projections for the same period are 256.0 billion CNY, 288.6 billion CNY, and 313.1 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for the quarter reached 23.0 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 60%, representing 13% of total revenue [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1] Core Views - Tencent's 1Q25 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The NON-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion CNY, up 22% year-over-year, also exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The target price range is set between 545.69 and 606.33 HKD, with the current price at 508.00 HKD [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 1Q25 was 1800 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 13% [1][8] - NON-IFRS net profit for the same period was 613 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22% [1][8] - The company achieved a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 23 billion CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 60%, representing 13% of total revenue [1][30] Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: Revenue from the gaming segment reached 595 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 24%, marking the highest growth rate in five quarters [1][18] - **Social Networks**: Revenue from social networks was 326 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 7% [1][26] - **Marketing Services**: This segment generated 319 billion CNY in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20% [1][30] - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue was 549 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 5% [1][32] Future Outlook - The report projects a revenue forecast for 2025-2027 of 7286 billion CNY, 7845 billion CNY, and 8356 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 7% [5] - The NON-IFRS net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 2560 billion CNY, 2886 billion CNY, and 3131 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the EPS for 2025-2027 to be 28.00 CNY, 31.85 CNY, and 34.87 CNY respectively, with corresponding target PE ratios of 18-20x for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent's Q1 revenue reached 1800.2 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.4%, exceeding consensus expectations of 1756.0 billion CNY [4] - The company's gross profit for Q1 was 1004.9 billion CNY, up 19.8% year-over-year and 10.9% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing the consensus estimate of 947.7 billion CNY [4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 613.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.9%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 596.8 billion CNY [4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Tencent's Q1 revenue was 1800.2 billion CNY, with a gross profit of 1004.9 billion CNY and adjusted net profit of 613.3 billion CNY, all beating market expectations [4] Value-Added Services (VAS) - Domestic game revenue in Q1 was 429 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by seasonal peaks in popular games like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [5] - International game revenue reached 166 billion CNY, a 22% year-over-year increase, supported by titles such as "Brawl Stars" and "PUBG MOBILE" [5] Marketing Business - Marketing revenue for Q1 was 319 billion CNY, a 20% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat and video accounts [6] - The combined monthly active users (MAU) for WeChat and WeChat reached 1.402 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase [6] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue was 549 billion CNY, a 5% year-over-year increase, with gross margin improving to 50% [7] AI Investments - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q1 was 274.8 billion CNY, a 91% year-over-year increase, reflecting ongoing investments in AI across various business lines [8] Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Tencent for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2560.2 billion CNY, 2973.9 billion CNY, and 3384.8 billion CNY respectively, with a stable pipeline of new games and AI integration across business lines [10]

Group 1 - Tencent reported a beat on its 1Q25 revenue while earnings were largely in line with expectations, indicating a consistent performance narrative [1] - The quarter's results reflect ongoing trends that have been observed in previous periods, suggesting stability in the company's operational performance [1] Group 2 - Astrada Advisors specializes in delivering actionable recommendations aimed at enhancing portfolio performance and uncovering alpha opportunities, backed by a strong track record in investment research [2] - The firm has expertise in technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors across North America and Asia, allowing it to identify high-potential investments and navigate complex industries effectively [2] - Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights to provide a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year to 180 billion RMB, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year and the success of several long-standing games, as well as new titles like "MDnF" and "Delta Operation" [1]. - Social revenue increased by 7%, supported by growth in music subscriptions, mini-game service fees, and mobile game in-app purchases [1]. - Marketing revenue accelerated by 20%, primarily due to strong demand for advertising on platforms like Video Accounts (up 60%+) and improved performance in search queries and mini-programs [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit rose by 20% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, with gross margin improving by approximately 3 percentage points [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, benefiting from high-margin businesses and cost optimization in payment and cloud services [1]. Capital Expenditure and Investments - Capital expenditures amounted to 27.5 billion RMB, a 91% increase year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud service infrastructure [2]. - Some of these investments have already started to contribute to revenue, enhancing user engagement and activity in long-standing games [2]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow by 10% to 177.8 billion RMB, with a full-year revenue forecast of 723.5 billion RMB, representing a 9.6% increase [3]. - New game releases are anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding high revenue bases in the latter half of the year [3]. - The current price corresponds to a 17x P/E ratio for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 604 HKD based on stable performance and shareholder returns [3].

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1800.2 billion RMB, exceeding the forecast of 1756 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4% [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 478.2 billion RMB, slightly below the forecast of 516.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 613.3 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 596.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [1] Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming sector experienced rapid growth, with value-added service revenue reaching 921.33 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Local market game revenue grew by 24%, driven by record-high revenue from evergreen games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [1] - International game revenue increased by 23%, attributed to revenue growth from games such as "Brawl Stars" and "Clash of Clans" [1] Advertising Revenue - Marketing services (advertising) revenue was 318.53 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The growth was primarily driven by strong demand for advertising inventory from video accounts, mini-programs, and WeChat search [2] - The company’s financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549.07 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] Profitability and Capital Expenditure - The overall gross margin improved to 56%, up approximately 3 percentage points year-on-year, due to the growth of high-margin businesses [2] - Capital expenditure for Q1 was 275 billion RMB, accounting for about 15.3% of revenue, aimed at supporting AI-related business development [2] - The company indicated that AI capabilities have made substantial contributions to performance advertising and evergreen games [2] AI Integration and Future Prospects - The integration of DeepSeek is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the internet traffic domain, with WeChat's daily search volume nearing 600 million [3] - The shift towards AI search and AI agents is anticipated to transform the internet landscape, positioning the company favorably for future growth [3] - The upcoming AI interactive game "Whispers from the Star" showcases the potential for AI to enhance user engagement and game dynamics [4] Profit Forecast - The company projects net profit attributable to equity holders to reach 2235 billion RMB, 2542 billion RMB, and 2882 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 13.7%, and 13.4% respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 24.3 RMB, 27.7 RMB, and 31.4 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 18, and 15 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenues of 180 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.45% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 180 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase of 4%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 175.7 billion yuan [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a YoY growth of 22% and a QoQ growth of 11%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 59.7 billion yuan by 2.7% [1]. - The gaming business generated 59.5 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, with a YoY increase of 24% and a QoQ increase of 21%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 55.3 billion yuan by 7.7% [1]. Group 2: Segment Performance - Domestic game revenue grew by 24% YoY, reaching 42.9 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus estimate of 40.3 billion yuan by 6.5% [1]. - Overseas game revenue also showed strong performance with a YoY increase of 22%, totaling 16.6 billion yuan, surpassing the consensus estimate of 15.4 billion yuan by 7.9% [1]. - Social network revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.6 billion yuan, reflecting a YoY increase of 7% and a QoQ increase of 9%, slightly above the consensus estimate of 32.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI, which has significantly contributed to the growth of performance advertising and evergreen games [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 734.2 billion yuan and 790 billion yuan, representing YoY growth of 11.2% and 7.6% respectively [2]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 258 billion yuan and 286.2 billion yuan, indicating YoY growth of 15.8% and 10.9% respectively [2].

Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 180 billion RMB, marking a 13% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by advertising and gaming sectors [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 69.3 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, while Non-IFRS net profit rose by 22% to 61.3 billion RMB [1] - The company is optimistic about the potential of AI applications, which have already made significant contributions to existing businesses and new initiatives [2] Revenue Performance - Advertising and gaming businesses showed strong performance, with overall revenue growth of 13% year-on-year and adjusted profit growth of 22% [1] - Online gaming revenue increased by 24% year-on-year, with domestic gaming revenue also up by 24% to 42.9 billion RMB [3] - The company's online gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 59.5 billion RMB, a 23.7% increase year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The gaming segment benefited from the success of evergreen games like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile," which achieved record-high revenues [3] - The marketing services segment saw a 20% year-on-year increase in online advertising revenue, reaching 31.9 billion RMB, driven by traffic growth and enhanced AI models [3] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year to 54.9 billion RMB, with a recovery in growth rates observed [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain robust performance, with long-term growth potential in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI applications not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [4] - Projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 252.5 billion RMB, 283.2 billion RMB, and 312.9 billion RMB respectively [4]