Core Viewpoint - The mid-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving due to various macro, policy, and micro factors, as highlighted in a recent report by Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Goldman Sachs has identified a list of ten favored Chinese private listed companies, referred to as the "Ten Giants," which include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta [1] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index weight, with a daily trading volume of $11 billion [1] - Analysts at Goldman Sachs project a 13% growth in earnings (compound annual growth rate) for the "Ten Giants" over the next two years, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [1] Group 2: Economic Themes - The "Ten Giants" are expected to reflect the latest economic themes in China, including advancements in artificial intelligence/technology, international expansion, new consumption trends, and enhanced shareholder returns [1] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that investing in private enterprises does not exclude the preference for high-quality state-owned enterprises and shareholder return combinations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the mid-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving due to various macro, policy, and micro factors [1] - Goldman Sachs has identified a list of "Ten Giants" among Chinese private companies, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta, covering multiple sub-industries [1] - These "Ten Giants" represent five major investment trends: AI/technology development, self-sufficiency, globalization, service consumption, and improved shareholder returns in China [1] Group 2 - The "Ten Giants" are expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% over the next two years, with an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Seven Sisters" [2] - The average trading valuation of the "Ten Giants" is 13.9 times the expected 12-month P/E ratio, which is only a 22% premium over the MSCI China Index, significantly lower than the historical average and the 43% premium of the U.S. tech giants [2] - If Chinese private enterprises achieve a valuation premium similar to that of the U.S., their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding $313 billion in market value [2] Group 3 - AI technology is expected to drive a 2.5% annual profit growth for Chinese companies over the next decade, with private enterprises accounting for 72% of the defined AI-tech universe [3] - Private enterprises in the technology sector show significantly higher attention to AI compared to their peers, as analyzed from over 1,300 earnings call reports [3] - Companies that have a large customer base and data, and are embracing new AI technologies, are more likely to become long-term winners [3]

Macro Economic Overview - China's credit situation continues to be driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand remains weak. The growth rate of social financing in May has rebounded due to accelerated issuance of government bonds. However, tariff impacts are dragging down household purchasing, consumption, and corporate capital expenditure, leading to a continuous decline in new RMB loans year-on-year. More policy support is needed to revive private economic recovery momentum [2] - It is expected that the LPR will be further lowered by 10 basis points in the second half of 2025, and the broad fiscal deficit may moderately increase. The central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity to support credit growth and stabilize the real estate sector, countering the impacts of tariff shocks. If a trade agreement can be reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumption stimulation, and advancing manufacturing capacity reduction [2][4] Company Analysis Mindray Medical (300760 CH) - Mindray Medical recently held an investor day, focusing on the digital transformation of its equipment business and the expansion strategy of its flow-type business, aiming to build an overall solution covering all departments with "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables." Key highlights include the establishment of a digital medical ecosystem based on IT + AI technology across three major production lines [5] - The company’s AI medical layout mainly focuses on emergency, surgery, and critical care, with the launch of a major model for critical care expected in December 2024, aiming to complete installations in over 30 hospitals this year. By the end of 2025, the company plans to release a major model for anesthesia, with specialized models for emergency, cardiovascular, ultrasound, and laboratory expected to be released in the next 1-2 years [5][6] - The automated assembly line is a key breakthrough for the IVD business, with over 200 new installations expected globally in 2024 and around 300 installations anticipated in 2025. The comprehensive IVD layout supports the company’s multi-disciplinary assembly line production, providing cost and iteration efficiency advantages [6][7] Baker Microelectronics (2149 HK) - Baker Microelectronics remains a core recommendation in the semiconductor sector, with a focus on demand prospects, geopolitical uncertainties, and upstream manufacturing resource investment plans. The company has a clear and sustainable growth strategy [8] Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth to $5.87 billion for Q2 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 7% to $2.17 billion, both in line with consensus expectations. The company raised its FY25 total revenue guidance to $23.5-23.6 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in its digital media business and increased penetration of AI products [8] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK): Buy rating, target price of 24.00 HKD, potential upside of 47% [9] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US): Buy rating, target price of 28.00 USD, potential upside of 54% [9] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Buy rating, target price of 40.61 USD, potential upside of 15% [9] - Tencent (700 HK): Buy rating, target price of 660.00 HKD, potential upside of 29% [9] - Alibaba (BABA US): Buy rating, target price of 155.50 USD, potential upside of 38% [9]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has introduced the concept of "Chinese Prominent 10," which includes major private companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, aiming to identify core assets in the Chinese stock market with long-term dominance potential [1][2] - The total market capitalization of these ten companies is approximately $1.6 trillion, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in earnings over the next two years [1][2] - The "Chinese Prominent 10" spans various high-growth sectors, including technology, consumer goods, and automotive, reflecting new economic drivers such as AI, self-sufficiency, globalization, and service consumption upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The selected "Chinese Prominent 10" companies include Tencent ($601 billion), Alibaba ($289 billion), Xiaomi ($146 billion), BYD ($121 billion), Meituan ($102 billion), NetEase ($86 billion), Midea ($78 billion), Hengrui Medicine ($51 billion), Trip.com ($43 billion), and Anta ($35 billion) [2] - These companies collectively account for a daily trading volume of $11 billion, indicating significant market influence and investment appeal [2] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for these companies is 16 times, with a forward price-to-earnings growth (fPEG) ratio of 1.1, making them more attractive compared to the U.S. "Magnificent 7" with a P/E of 28.5 and fPEG of 1.8 [2] Group 3 - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the average increase in stock prices for these ten companies has been 54%, with a year-to-date rise of 24%, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 33 and 8 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 4 - Following a significant market value loss of nearly $4 trillion since late 2020, private enterprises in China are showing signs of strong recovery, with profits and return on equity (ROE) rebounding by 22% and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, since 2022 [4] - Recent policies have increased the focus on private enterprises, boosting confidence among entrepreneurs, as evidenced by the private enterprise symposium in February and the introduction of the first Private Economy Promotion Law in April [4] - The rapid advancements in AI technology, particularly with the emergence of models like DeepSeek-R1, have enhanced market optimism towards technology-driven private enterprises [4] Group 5 - The concentration of the Chinese stock market is relatively low, with the top ten companies accounting for only 17% of the total market capitalization, compared to 33% in the U.S. and 30% in other emerging markets [6] - As leading companies expand their dominance, market concentration is expected to increase in the coming years [6] Group 6 - The investment interest from private enterprises is anticipated to support organic growth and acquisitions, aided by a more transparent and relaxed merger and acquisition framework [7] Group 7 - The average turnover rate of the top ten companies in China over the past decade has been only 12%, indicating strong competitive advantages and market "stickiness" among leading firms [8] - Factors such as capital expenditure, R&D investment, and market concentration are positively correlated with subsequent stock returns and market share representation [8] Group 8 - AI technology is reshaping the competitive landscape, with large private enterprises leveraging their customer base, data accumulation, and investment capabilities to excel in AI development and commercialization [9][10] - Private enterprises are leading the "going global" strategy, with overseas sales increasing from 10% in 2017 to an estimated 17% in 2024 [10] - Companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows are better positioned to capitalize on overseas market opportunities, where profit margins can be significantly higher than in domestic markets [10] Group 9 - Despite ongoing improvements in fundamentals, the valuations of the "Chinese Prominent 10" remain at historical lows, with an average trading valuation of 13.9 times the expected P/E ratio, only 22% higher than the MSCI China Index [11] - If these private enterprises achieve similar valuation premiums as their U.S. counterparts, their market concentration could increase from 11% to 13%, adding approximately $313 billion in market value [11]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is expanding into the online travel industry, attempting to disrupt the market with aggressive hiring and a "no bundling" approach for ticket sales, but faces significant challenges due to its past failures and the competitive landscape [2][7]. Group 1: JD.com's Strategy and Challenges - JD.com is likely to replicate its "lightning war" strategy from the food delivery sector, involving high salaries and subsidies to attract talent and customers [2][3]. - The online travel market is fundamentally different from food delivery, as travel decisions are less frequent and involve a longer decision-making process, making it harder to sway users with subsidies [3][4]. - The complexity of the travel service chain, including hotel bookings and various travel services, presents significant challenges for JD.com in implementing a subsidy strategy effectively [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The online travel industry is dominated by established players like Meituan, Ctrip, and Fliggy, creating a strong "Matthew effect" where market share is concentrated among a few [4][5]. - Ctrip has a long-standing relationship with high-star hotels, while Meituan has built a strong advantage in the local market through a comprehensive service model [4][5]. - JD.com faces three major barriers: resource control, user perception, and the need for a robust service network to handle complex travel-related issues [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The integration of AI in the online travel industry is becoming essential, with competitors like Fliggy and Tongcheng leveraging AI for enhanced user experiences [6][7]. - JD.com has not made significant strides in AI applications within the travel sector, which could hinder its competitiveness as other players advance [6][7]. - The current landscape suggests that merely relying on price competition is insufficient for success in the online travel market, which has evolved beyond a "burning money" strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Starting from November 2025, Chinese tourists holding valid Australian visitor, work, student, or family visas will be able to apply for New Zealand's electronic travel authorization (NZeTA) without needing a visa, allowing a maximum stay of 3 months [1] Group 1 - The new policy is expected to significantly increase passenger flow traveling to New Zealand via Australia [1] - Data from Trip.com indicates a 37% year-on-year increase in travel orders to New Zealand from April to May this year [1] - The gross merchandise value (GMV) of scenic spots in New Zealand has seen a 74% year-on-year growth during the same period [1]

Recent Activities - Indonesia Discovery Program 2025: Healthcare is a three-day on-site visit program aimed at helping Chinese companies explore opportunities in the Indonesian healthcare market, scheduled for July 29-31 in Jakarta [2] Company Dynamics - TikTok's overseas monthly active users on mobile devices have surpassed 1 billion for the first time [3] - JD Logistics has reportedly recruited over 1,000 team members in Saudi Arabia [3] - AliExpress has launched a car sales business, initially offering Chinese electric vehicles in the Middle East [3] - Geek+ has received a listing notification from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating plans to list in Hong Kong [4] - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's visit to China signals potential expansion of autonomous driving services in Europe [4] - Trip.com has opened over 1,100 overseas positions across 75 cities in 23 countries, aiming for a significant increase in international revenue [5] - Ant Group's Ant Financial has initiated the application for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong [6] - XPeng Motors aims to introduce advanced driver assistance systems in Hong Kong [7] - Chery plans to use Hong Kong as a new starting point for international capital markets [7] - Leap Motor has officially entered the Hong Kong market and is planning localization in Europe and Southeast Asia [7] - Changan Automobile has established nine out of twenty planned overseas factories and is expanding into over 100 countries [8] - GAC plans to enter the Argentine market by the second half of 2025 [8] - TSMC's construction plans for new factories in Japan and Germany may be adjusted due to local market conditions [8] - TikTok is set to expand its investment in the UK to approximately £140 million, creating over 500 new jobs [9] - Transsion's TECNO has formed a strategic partnership with MCR Group to enter the Spanish market [9] - CnEnergy International has signed strategic cooperation agreements for solar projects in Zambia [9] Macro Policies & Industry Data - In the first five months of 2023, China's electric vehicle exports increased by 19%, and industrial robot exports surged by 55.4% [12] - China's trade with Africa has grown significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 14.2% since the establishment of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum [12] - In the first five months, China's automobile exports reached 2.49 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [13] - The Hong Kong government is actively seeking to attract more Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong [13] - The interconnectivity project between mainland China and Hong Kong's rapid payment systems is progressing smoothly [13] - The Yangtze River Delta region has seen significant growth in cross-border e-commerce and high-end equipment exports [14] Investment and Financing - Yige Cloud has completed a nearly 100 million yuan Pre-B round of financing to enhance its AI-driven enterprise office support platform [15] - Yinghan Power has secured several million yuan in Pre-A+ financing to develop new training devices for professional sports [15] - Liuxing Technology has completed several million yuan in Pre-A financing to advance its intelligent three-dimensional perception technology [15]

Group 1 - The global market experienced a significant downturn, with the Dow Jones index dropping nearly 800 points, marking a 1.79% decline, the largest single-day drop in nearly five weeks [2][5] - The primary trigger for this market turmoil is the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like gold and oil [3][13] - The fear index (VIX) spiked over 15%, indicating a sharp increase in market anxiety [4][5] Group 2 - European markets also faced declines, with France and Germany both dropping slightly over 1%, while the UK saw a smaller decline of 0.39% [5] - Energy stocks benefitted from rising oil prices, with companies like ExxonMobil and Diamondback Energy showing significant gains [6] - Defense stocks gained traction due to geopolitical conflicts, with Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies performing strongly [6] Group 3 - Airline stocks suffered due to high oil prices, with Delta Airlines, United Airlines, and American Airlines experiencing declines between 3% and 5% [8] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Oracle reaching new highs while Adobe fell over 5%, and major tech giants like Apple and Nvidia also underperformed [10] - Chinese concept stocks generally weakened, with the China Golden Dragon Index down 2.74%, and companies like Alibaba and JD.com experiencing slight pullbacks [10][11] Group 4 - The escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran has been identified as a core event, with Iran launching over 100 drones into Israeli territory [14][15] - Oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude rising over 7% to around $73 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [15] - Gold prices also saw a strong rise, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.48% to $3452.60 per ounce, accumulating a 3.17% increase for the week [15][16] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures, exacerbated by rising oil prices [17][18] - If oil prices reach $100 per barrel, gasoline prices in the U.S. could rise significantly, potentially pushing overall inflation rates higher [18] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, with projections now indicating approximately 1.9 cuts by the end of 2025, down from previous expectations [18]

以下文章来源于中国企业家杂志 ，作者李艳艳 作者： 李艳艳 来源：中国企业家杂志 平静已久的 OTA （在线旅游）市场 再起波澜。 近期，有消息称， 京东正以 3 倍薪资从携程、美团、飞猪、同程 等平台 大规模 " 挖角 " 酒旅 人才 ，并主打 " 零捆绑、透明价 " + 补贴 策略， 此举被 业内 理解为 " 直指携程、美团 盈利 核心 " 。 还有业界人士推测，京东 "明攻外卖、暗抢酒旅 " ，企图 " 用高频外卖引流，靠高利 润酒旅赚钱 " 。 截至发稿，京东 、 美团 和携程 官方层面对此暂无回应。 与此同时 ，给京东外卖频频 " 站台 " 的刘强东刷足了 " 存在感 " 。从年初参观香港科技大学教 授贾佳亚团队的人工智能项目，到参加全国工商联会议发表演讲，再到近期拿下 头部 央企华润 的 " 大单 " ，他的每次现身，都会给京东带来巨大的曝光量和关注度，并引发公众讨论。 在中国企业家群体中，刘强东深谙流量密码，更擅长如何消磨对手。 从与当当的 " 图书大战 "， 到与苏宁的 " 家电大战 " ，再到今年与美团、饿了么的 " 外卖大战 " ，京东 " 低价 "" 补 贴 " 的打法一以贯之，且 未见 ...