Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price raised to $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of $15.09 [2][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 profits exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 74.6 billion RMB, aligning with market forecasts. The growth in music subscription revenue was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 18% and a total of 121 million music members, reflecting a net increase of 2 million members quarter-on-quarter [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 was 22.8 billion RMB, a 45% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 18%, primarily due to improved gross margins [6][11]. - The long-term targets for online music remain unchanged, aiming for 150 million members with an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of 15 RMB [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 30,930 million RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates. The online music segment is expected to generate 25,313 million RMB, a 2% increase [3][12]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9,845 million RMB, an 8% increase from prior estimates, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 31.8% [3][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 8,611 million RMB, a 5% increase from previous forecasts, with an adjusted net profit margin of 27.8% [3][12]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.95%, with a 52-week high of $15.49 and a low of $9.46, indicating strong market performance [5][6]. Membership and Revenue Growth - The report notes that the monthly ARPPU for music subscriptions increased to 11.1 RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [6][11]. - Non-member revenue also saw a year-on-year increase of 12%, driven by diversified advertising [6][11]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent Music has announced a new $1 billion share repurchase plan and continues to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 26%, with a dividend yield of 1.2% [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) [5] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of 7.46 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of 7.29 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 reached 2.40 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.0% [1] - The music subscription business showed high-quality growth, with online music revenue of 5.83 billion RMB, up 16.1% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in subscription and advertising revenues [2] - The company announced a cash dividend of 273 million USD and a new share buyback plan amounting to 1 billion USD [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 gross profit was 3.25 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 43.6%, up 5.3 percentage points year-over-year [3] - Operating profit for Q4 2024 reached 2.41 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 40.5% [3] - The company expects revenue growth to improve in 2025, with a slight increase in operating expenses anticipated [3] Revenue Breakdown - Membership subscription revenue was 4.03 billion RMB, up 18.0% year-over-year, with a total of 121 million paying users [2] - Other music revenue reached 1.80 billion RMB, growing 12.5% year-over-year, supported by healthy advertising revenue [2] - Social entertainment revenue was 1.63 billion RMB, down 13.0% year-over-year, but showing signs of stabilization [2] Profitability Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is set at 8.98 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 17.0% [4] - The report projects a gradual increase in adjusted net profit for 2026 and 2027, with estimates of 10.44 billion RMB and 11.72 billion RMB respectively [4] Market Position - The company has solid competitive barriers, with expectations that SVIP development will enhance ARPPU and contribute to advertising revenue growth [3] - The report highlights the potential for continued profit release due to scale effects [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by robust growth in paid user numbers and an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong integration capabilities and potential for margin expansion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Tencent Music reported revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 24 billion, up 43% year-on-year [1][4]. - Online music revenue grew by 16% to RMB 58.3 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 18% to RMB 40.3 billion [2]. User Growth and ARPPU - The number of online paying users increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 121 million, aligning with expectations [2]. - ARPPU rose to RMB 11.1, reflecting a sequential increase driven by strong growth in SVIP (Super VIP) memberships [2][3]. Profitability and Margin Outlook - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 43.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates further improvement in gross margin to 45% by 2025, supported by growth in paid users and a decrease in revenue share from live streaming [3]. Valuation and Target Price - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to RMB 86.7 billion, RMB 95.4 billion, and RMB 107.4 billion, respectively [4][11]. - The target price is set at USD 19.10 or HKD 68.43, based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price raised to $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of $15.09 [2][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 profits exceeded expectations, with a 45% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit to 22.8 billion RMB, driven by improved gross margins [2][6]. - The company continues to see robust growth in its music subscription revenue, with a target of 150 million members and an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of 15 RMB remaining unchanged [2][6]. - A new $1 billion share buyback plan has been announced, alongside a maintained dividend payout ratio of 26% and a dividend yield of 1.2% [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to 30,930 million RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach 25,313 million RMB in 2025, a 2% increase, with subscription revenue projected at 17,608 million RMB, also up by 1% [3]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is now 8,611 million RMB, a 5% increase from prior estimates [3]. Performance Metrics - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to rise to 45.2% in 2025, up from 43.8% [3]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to increase to 31.8% in 2025, compared to 29.8% previously [3]. - The company’s stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.95% [5]. Market Position - Tencent Music's market capitalization is approximately $10.56 billion, with a 52-week high of $15.49 and a low of $9.46 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that while social entertainment revenue may decline, online music and advertising revenues are expected to grow [2][6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues reached RMB7.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, with online music revenues growing by 16% to RMB5.8 billion [32][34] - Average net profit increased by 47% year-over-year to RMB2.1 billion, marking the highest quarterly profit in the company's history [32][40] - Non-IFRS net profit rose by 43% year-over-year to RMB2.4 billion [40] - Gross margin for Q4 reached 43.6%, up by 5.3 percentage points year-over-year [36][58] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Music subscription revenues in Q4 2024 reached RMB4 billion, representing an 18% increase year-over-year [33] - The number of online music paying users was 121 million, a 13% increase year-over-year [34] - Advertising revenues achieved strong year-over-year growth, primarily due to the growth in ad-supported model revenues [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The music and audio library exceeded 260 million licensed and co-created tracks by the end of 2024, up from 200 million at the end of the previous year [8] - The company has renewed strategic contracts with international labels, expanding its coverage of high-quality music content [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a dual-engine strategy combining rich content and platform innovation to capture emerging opportunities [7] - Plans to continue diversifying offerings across the music value chain and investing in original content production and innovative technologies [47][48] - The company aims to enhance user experiences through AI technologies and innovative features [30][90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future growth prospects, supported by a strong performance in online music services and profit margin expansion [5][7] - The company anticipates healthy growth in online music driven by an increase in paying users and ARPPU [57] - Management noted that the willingness of users to spend on live music events has surged, indicating a positive cycle for music content consumption [80] Other Important Information - The company announced an annual dividend of $273 million and a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion [7][42] - The commitment to ESG excellence is emphasized, with significant strides made in supporting female musicians [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 growth outlook, especially for music subscription revenue - Management highlighted strong performance in 2024 and expressed optimism for continued growth in 2025, focusing on user experience and service innovation [50][56] Question: Balance between subscriber and ARPU growth - Management confirmed confidence in revenue and profit growth for 2025, with expectations for continued growth in both subscriber numbers and ARPPU [67][70] Question: Changes in consumer sentiment towards discretionary spending - Management observed a shift towards live music experiences, with increased willingness to spend on concerts and merchandise [78][80] Question: Strategy around AI for 2025 - Management plans to leverage AI technologies to enhance user experience and engagement, with ongoing investments in AI capabilities [84][90] Question: Sequential revenue growth for social entertainment - Management noted a key growth driver from new interactive features and a stabilized user base, with expectations for continued growth momentum [93][100] Question: Capital allocation and shareholder returns - Management emphasized a balanced approach to capital allocation, focusing on sustainable growth opportunities while returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase programs [103][106]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q4 2024 earnings report shows mixed results, with subscription growth under pressure but improved profitability and cost management, indicating potential for future growth despite competitive challenges [1][7]. Subscription Performance - The number of subscription users increased by 2 million in Q4, remaining flat compared to Q3, which aligns with previous guidance [1]. - Subscription revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [3][14]. - The company aims to increase its subscription penetration rate to 25%-30%, currently at 21.8% [17]. Profitability and Cost Management - Operating income for the core business reached 2.079 billion CNY, exceeding market expectations, with an operating profit margin of 27.9% [5][21]. - The gross profit margin improved to 43.6%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [20][21]. - Non-IFRS net income for Q4 was 2.399 billion CNY, a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily due to favorable currency fluctuations [22]. Shareholder Returns - A new share buyback plan of 1 billion USD over two years and a dividend of 273 million USD for 2024 were approved, resulting in a shareholder return yield of 3.5% [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - Monthly active users (MAU) decreased by 20 million to 556 million, raising concerns about competition, particularly from competitors like Kuaishou Music [2][12]. - Kuaishou Music's MAU has surged to nearly 100 million, indicating a significant competitive threat [8][13]. Cash Position - As of the end of Q4, Tencent Music had a net cash position of 25 billion CNY (approximately 3.5 billion USD), which could be utilized for shareholder returns and potential investments [4][23].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues reached RMB 7.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase [21] - Online music revenues increased by 16% year-over-year to RMB 5.8 billion, driven by strong growth in music subscription revenues [22] - Net profit increased by 47% year-over-year to RMB 2.1 billion, marking the highest quarterly profit in the company's history [21][26] - Non-IFRS net profit rose by 43% year-over-year to RMB 2.4 billion [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Music subscription revenues in Q4 2024 reached RMB 4 billion, representing an 18% increase year-over-year [22] - The number of online music paying users was 121 million, a 13% increase year-over-year [23] - Advertising revenues achieved strong year-over-year growth, primarily due to the growth in ad-supported model revenues [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Social entertainment services and other revenues were RMB 1.6 billion, down by 13% year-over-year [24] - The gross margin for Q4 reached 43.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-over-year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its business presence across the music value chain and enhancing user experiences through continuous product and service innovation [40] - The dual engine strategy combines rich content and platform innovation to capture emerging opportunities [4] - The company plans to invest in original content production, high-quality content, and innovative technologies globally [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future growth prospects, expecting healthy growth in online music driven by an increase in paying users and ARPPU [40] - The company aims to explore new business opportunities in content ecosystems, IoT, long-form audio, and international markets [41] - Management noted that the music live shows business in China is expected to continue strong performance, with stable market size and ticket prices [57] Other Important Information - The company announced an annual dividend of $273 million and a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion [4] - The total revenues for the full year 2024 were RMB 28.4 billion, up by 2% year-over-year [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 growth outlook - Management highlighted strong performance in 2024 and expressed optimism for 2025, focusing on user experience and continuous innovation [40][41] Question: Balance between subscriber and ARPU growth - Management indicated confidence in maintaining growth in both subscriber numbers and ARPU, while being cautious of price sensitivity [51][52] Question: Changes in consumer sentiment towards discretionary spending - Management observed a growing demand for live concerts and music festivals, indicating a positive cycle for music content consumption [56] Question: Strategy around AI in 2025 - Management plans to leverage AI technologies to enhance user experience and improve sound quality, while managing costs effectively [60][62] Question: Sequential revenue growth for social entertainment - Management noted that new interactive features and compliance improvements contributed to recent growth in social entertainment revenue [66][70]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 7.46 billion (USD 1.02 billion), representing an 8.2% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth in online music services[9]. - Net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.08 billion (USD 284 million), a 47.3% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable to equity holders rose by 49.8% to RMB 1.96 billion (USD 268 million)[9]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached RMB 28.4 billion (USD 3.89 billion), a 2.3% year-over-year increase[9]. - Full year operating profit increased by 43.8% year-over-year to RMB 8.71 billion (USD 1.19 billion)[26]. - Net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 7.11 billion (USD 974 million), with profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 6.64 billion (USD 910 million)[29]. - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8.14 billion (USD 1.12 billion), with basic and diluted earnings per ADS of RMB 4.97 (USD 0.68) and RMB 4.90 (USD 0.67) respectively[29]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music subscription revenue increased by 18.0% year-over-year to RMB 4.03 billion (USD 552 million), with paid user count rising by 13.4% to 121 million[9]. - Online music service revenue grew 16.1% year-over-year to RMB 5.83 billion (USD 799 million), driven by a strong increase in subscription revenue and advertising service revenue[19]. - Online music service revenue increased by 25.5% year-over-year to RMB 21.74 billion (USD 2.98 billion), driven by strong growth in subscription and advertising revenues[7]. - Online music subscription revenue reached RMB 15.23 billion (USD 2.09 billion), a 25.9% increase from RMB 12.10 billion in 2023, supported by a growing user base and higher average revenue per paid user[7]. User Metrics - Monthly active users for online music services decreased by 3.5% year-over-year to 556 million, while mobile monthly active users for social entertainment services fell by 21.2% to 82 million[11]. - The number of online music paying users increased by 13.4% year-over-year to 121 million, benefiting from high-quality content and attractive membership benefits[19]. - The super member business showed strong performance with increased user engagement and average revenue per paid user[10]. - Average revenue per paid user for online music services increased by 3.7% year-over-year to RMB 11.1[11]. Cash and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, totaled RMB 37.58 billion (USD 5.15 billion) as of December 31, 2024[9]. - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 37.58 billion (USD 5.15 billion) as of December 31, 2024, up from RMB 36.04 billion as of September 30, 2024[22]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from investment activities of RMB 6,818 million in 2024, compared to RMB 1,863 million in 2023, indicating a significant increase in investment spending[50]. Dividends and Share Repurchase - The company announced a cash dividend of approximately USD 273 million for the fiscal year 2024 and a new share repurchase plan of up to USD 1 billion[12]. - A cash dividend of USD 0.09 per ordinary share or USD 0.18 per ADS is declared for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling approximately USD 273 million[31]. - The company announced a new share repurchase plan allowing for the buyback of up to USD 1 billion of Class A ordinary shares over a 24-month period starting March 2025[30]. Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 7.3% year-over-year to RMB 1.17 billion (USD 161 million), with operating expenses as a percentage of total revenue declining from 18.4% to 15.7%[20]. - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 3.6% year-over-year to RMB 865 million (USD 119 million), while general and administrative expenses fell by 7.5% to RMB 3.81 billion (USD 522 million) due to reduced personnel costs[28]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to leverage AI to enhance personalized services and provide users with fresh music experiences in 2025[10]. - The company has made significant progress in supporting female musicians, with 192,000 women musicians being nurtured within a more diverse and inclusive music community[32]. Asset and Liability Overview - Total assets increased from RMB 75,536 million in 2023 to RMB 90,444 million in 2024, representing a growth of 19.7%[48]. - Total equity increased from RMB 57,202 million in 2023 to RMB 69,726 million in 2024, a growth of 22%[49]. - The company’s total liabilities rose from RMB 18,334 million in 2023 to RMB 20,718 million in 2024, an increase of 13%[49].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) reported strong financial results for Q4 and full year 2024, highlighting significant growth in online music services and a commitment to shareholder value through dividends and share repurchase programs [1][3]. Financial Highlights - Total revenues for Q4 2024 increased by RMB 565 million, or 8.2%, to RMB 7.46 billion (US$1.02 billion) compared to RMB 6.89 billion in Q4 2023 [5][6]. - Revenues from online music services rose by 16.1% year-over-year to RMB 5.83 billion (US$799 million) from RMB 5.02 billion in the same period of 2023 [5][6]. - For the full year 2024, total revenues reached RMB 28.40 billion (US$3.89 billion), a 2.3% increase from RMB 27.75 billion in 2023 [15][19]. - Net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.08 billion (US$284 million), representing a 47.3% year-over-year growth [6][12]. - The company declared an annual cash dividend of approximately US$273 million for 2024 and authorized a new share repurchase program of up to US$1 billion [3][21]. Operational Highlights - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) for online music decreased by 3.5% year-over-year to 556 million, while paying users for online music increased by 13.4% to 121 million [4][8]. - Monthly Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) for online music rose to RMB 11.1 from RMB 10.7 in Q4 2023 [4][8]. - Revenues from music subscriptions grew by 18.0% year-over-year to RMB 4.03 billion (US$552 million) [6][8]. Cost and Profitability - Gross margin improved to 43.6% in Q4 2024 from 38.3% in the same period of 2023, driven by growth in music subscription revenues and advertising services [9]. - Total operating expenses decreased by 7.3% year-over-year to RMB 1.17 billion (US$161 million) [9][17]. - Total operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.41 billion (US$330 million), a 40.5% increase year-over-year [10][18]. Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasized innovation in user experience and content offerings, launching new features to enhance user engagement [3][5]. - TME's SVIP initiative showed strong performance, contributing to user engagement and ARPPU growth [3][7]. - The company is focusing on AI integration to personalize services and enhance user experiences in 2025 [3][7]. Content and Partnerships - TME has over 260 million licensed and co-created music and audio tracks, with renewed contracts with major entertainment companies [7]. - Collaborations with renowned artists and production of original soundtracks for popular media have expanded TME's content ecosystem [7]. ESG Commitment - The company has made strides in supporting female musicians and launched initiatives to raise biodiversity awareness through music [25].

Core Points - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) announced the retirement of Mr. Matthew Yun Ming Cheng from its Board of Directors effective February 28, 2025, and appointed Mr. Wai Yip Tsang as a new director on the same date [1][2] - Mr. Cheng has been a member of TME's Board since 2022, contributing to the company's growth and innovation in the music industry [2] - Mr. Tsang brings a strong financial background and extensive experience in corporate finance, having held senior financial positions in various companies and currently serving as the Financial Controller of Tencent Holdings Limited [2] Company Overview - Tencent Music Entertainment Group is the leading online music and audio entertainment platform in China, operating popular music apps such as QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, and WeSing [3] - The company's mission is to create endless possibilities with music and technology, offering services that include online music, online audio, online karaoke, music-centric live streaming, and online concert services [3]