腾讯音乐突然出手。 据韩国金融监督院电子公示系统5月27日消息，韩国娱乐巨头HYBE将于本月30日收盘后通过场外大宗交易方 式，向腾讯音乐娱乐集团（简称"腾讯音乐"）旗下香港法人出售其所持全部SM娱乐股份，交易金额约2433亿 韩元（约合人民币12.9亿元）。 腾讯音乐是中国在线音乐娱乐服务开拓者，提供在线音乐和以音乐为核心的社交娱乐两大服务。腾讯音乐在中 国有着广泛的用户基础，拥有目前国内市场知名的四大移动音乐产品：QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐和全民 K歌。 数据显示，腾讯音乐2024年总收入为284.0亿元，同比增长2.3%，调整后净利润81.4亿元，同比增长30.7%。该 公司解释，在线音乐业务表现强劲，推动收入增长，利润率进一步提升。该公司在音乐产业链上积极开拓创 新，不仅持续引领行业发展，也进一步丰富了平台生态，驱动付费用户渗透率不断提高，用户的全周期价值得 到大幅提升。 今年一季度，腾讯音乐总收入为73.6亿元，同比增长8.7%，调整后净利润为22.3亿元，同比增长22.8%。其 中，在线音乐业务持续高质量增长，推动其稳健发展。第一季度，腾讯音乐在线音乐服务收入同比增长15.9% 至58.0亿元， ...

Core Insights - HYBE is selling all its shares in SM Entertainment to Tencent Music Entertainment Group for approximately 12.9 billion RMB [1] - The transaction will be executed through an off-market block trade after the market closes on May 30 [1] - Following this transaction, HYBE will completely withdraw its investment in SM Entertainment, and Tencent Music Entertainment Group will become the second-largest shareholder of SM Entertainment, following Kakao [1] Financial Details - The total transaction amount is around 243.3 billion Korean Won, equivalent to approximately 12.9 billion RMB [1] - This sale marks a significant shift in the ownership structure of SM Entertainment, enhancing Tencent's position in the company [1] Market Implications - The move indicates a strategic realignment in the Korean entertainment industry, with Tencent strengthening its foothold in SM Entertainment [1] - The transaction may influence future collaborations and competitive dynamics within the industry, particularly between Tencent and Kakao [1]

Core Viewpoint - The audio industry is undergoing a phase of consolidation driven by the importance of scale in the content sector, with free business models demonstrating a strong ability to attract users and traffic, potentially breaking market size limits [1][4][25] Group 1: Company Developments - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) plans to acquire Ximalaya for $2.4 billion, with the agreement potentially reached in the coming weeks [1] - TME's online music service revenue increased by 25.5% year-on-year, accounting for over 75% of total revenue, highlighting its growth strategy focused on online music [5][6] - TME's monthly active users for online music services have shown a decline from 620 million in 2022 to 570 million in 2024, indicating challenges in user retention [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The audio market has seen a lack of platform-level companies, with many players reverting to content production rather than platform development [1][4] - The audio industry faces a growth ceiling due to high content production costs and the uncertainty of monetization, leading to a trend where platforms must scale to survive [4][19] - The overall user base for online audio has stagnated at 335 million, with a notable decline in usage time from 58 minutes in 2020 to 25 minutes [22][24] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ximalaya, despite facing challenges in commercialization and high content costs, boasts a significant user base of 303 million monthly active users, capturing 60% of mobile listening time in China [11][18] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou capturing market share from traditional audio live streaming services [8][20] - The trend of free models in content consumption has proven effective in other sectors, suggesting a potential for similar disruption in the audio market [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][26] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a solid leadership position, with subscription business growth driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [3][26] - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.36 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [9][3] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 2.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [9][3] Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue accounted for 79% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 44.1%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][3] - The subscription business revenue reached 4.22 billion yuan in Q1 2025, growing 17% year-on-year [2][3] - The company expects the gross margin to continue improving, potentially reaching 45% in 2025 [9][3] User Metrics - The online music mobile MAU (Monthly Active Users) was 555 million, down 4% year-on-year, while the number of paying users increased to 123 million, up 8.3% year-on-year [25][2] - The subscription user base is projected to grow by 6 million in 2025, with an expected increase in ARPPU of 1.2 yuan [3][26] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 8.9 billion yuan, 10.2 billion yuan, and 11.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][3] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 29.07 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3% [4][3]

本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 持续关注中美关税谈判，关注海外资产一季报的变化。因关税贸易战引发（包括担心中概退市）的海外中国资产 跌幅陆续得到填补，挖掘超跌板块或个股的难度增加。建议关注：1）美股中概资产：对交易平台资产的推荐不 变，但短期暂无新增催化或者增量逻辑；保持对咖啡龙头的长期看好；保持关注跌出深度价值的个股；2）港股 互联网资产：关注追求确定性的优质互联网平台、外卖平台竞争情况。3）港股消费类资产：咖啡茶饮板块关注 咖啡龙头，同时关注将 IPO 的消费类公司。4）其他：建议关注困境反转标的，及互金助贷板块。5）传媒：建议 关注重组逻辑的个股机会。个股：拼多多、贝壳、分众传媒、芒果超媒。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 教育：上周在线教育公司高途/有道发布财报，收入收款保持较好增长的同时，盈利能力有所提升。结合近期财 报看，K12 教培行业景气良好，非学科课程续班率提升，继续看好龙头公司转型后持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：上周历峰集团发布财报 ...

Group 1 - Tencent Music Entertainment Group has announced a strategic cooperation with Zhejiang Satellite TV to integrate resources in music copyright, content co-creation, and support for quality musicians [1][3] - The cooperation will involve comprehensive collaboration on music copyrights for several popular music variety shows, including "The Sound of Heaven," "You Sing," and "Shining Summer," with music works being made available on Tencent Music's platforms [3][4] - Tencent Music will provide efficient copyright solutions for Zhejiang Satellite TV's variety shows and explore content co-creation opportunities, including joint creation of theme songs and promotional tracks [3][4] Group 2 - Tencent Music's Vice President stated that music variety shows are a crucial part of their content ecosystem and serve as an important platform for quality musicians and songs [4] - The partnership aims to establish a benchmark for mutual support between music and variety shows through copyright collaboration, content co-creation, and musician support [4]

腾讯音乐大涨超15%。 当地时间5月14日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指连续第二个交易日收跌。市场继续关注国际贸易局势及其对美股后 续走势可能产生的影响，交易员担忧这轮反弹可能已经见顶。 中概股表现强势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨超1%，腾讯音乐大涨超15%。 交易员担忧美股反弹或已见顶 当地时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指收跌89.37点，跌幅为0.21%，报42051.06点；纳指涨136.73点，涨幅 为0.72%，报19146.81点；标普500指数涨6.03点，涨幅为0.10%，报5892.58点。 美股周度涨幅显著。本周迄今，纳指飙升超6%，道琼斯指数涨幅达1%。 标普500指数本周累计上涨超4%，年内收益率转正。该指数较4月7日盘中低点反弹逾21%。在特朗普宣布所谓"对等关 税"后，该指数一度陷入熊市，即下跌到较2月历史高点回落超20%的水平。 随着中美贸易紧张局势有所缓和，提振了市场情绪。标普500的V型反弹显示市场正在重新定价贸易风险，但分析师提醒 后续波动可能持续。交易员们担忧这轮反弹可能已经到顶，同时也在关注美国贸易政策重塑的长期影响。 虽然标普500指数年内已回升至略涨水平，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) [5] Core Views - Tencent Music's 1Q25 performance slightly exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, achieving revenue of 7.36 billion RMB (up 8.7% YoY) and adjusted net profit of 2.23 billion RMB (up 22.8% YoY) [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from a solid competitive barrier, with the SVIP program anticipated to boost ARPPU, while non-subscription revenue streams such as advertising and live performances are expected to contribute additional growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Tencent Music's online music revenue reached 5.8 billion RMB (up 15.9% YoY), accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, driven by strong subscription and advertising growth [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly revised upwards to 9.35 billion, 10.91 billion, and 12.50 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 4.2%, 4.6%, and 6.6% respectively [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Subscription revenue was 4.22 billion RMB (up 16.6% YoY), with a total of 123 million paying users, an increase of 8.3% YoY [2] - Other music revenue, including advertising, reached 1.58 billion RMB, showing a growth of approximately 14% [2] Cost and Profitability - Operating profit for 1Q25 was 4.84 billion RMB (up 146.9% YoY), primarily due to high growth in other income, including a 2% stake in Universal Music [3] - The company expects an increase in revenue growth rate for the full year 2025 compared to 2024, with a slight rise in sales expenses and potential improvements in profit margins [3]

5月13日，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称"腾讯音乐"）发布其截至2025年3月31日止第一季度未经审计财 务业绩。 第一季度腾讯音乐业绩迎来高质量增长。财报显示，2025年第一季度，腾讯音乐总收入为73.6亿元，同 比增长8.7%；调整后净利润为22.3亿元，同比增长22.8%。 财报介绍，业绩增长主要得益于第一季度在线音乐服务收入同比增长15.9%至58.0亿元。 上海夏至良时咨询管理有限公司高级研究员、大消费行业分析师杨怀玉向《证券日报》记者表示："得 益于腾讯音乐丰富的内容储备，公司在激发用户音乐需求上拥有良好的施展基础。一方面，腾讯音乐市 场占比达到70%，这让其版权采购成本通过规模效应摊薄；其次，超级会员包含的额外服务，底层逻辑 是瞄准高净值人群以及粉丝群体。" 具体来看，腾讯音乐第一季度与唱片公司稳固合作，持续扩充经典曲库，同时凭借自制内容打造差异化 优势。例如，与索尼音乐娱乐续签多年合约、与英皇娱乐和滚石唱片续约，为曲库升级杜比全景声音 效。此外，尽管华语歌曲仍是音乐播放主流，但韩语、英语及日语歌曲也愈发受到用户欢迎。为满足用 户兴趣，腾讯音乐与韩国Starship娱乐、YG娱乐以及日本头部ACG ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of $14.69 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on high-quality membership growth and the release of operational and profit potential, with an adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 increased by 3% to RMB 8.9 billion [1][5]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) target price is derived from music at $14, social at $1, and cash at $2, based on respective price-to-earnings ratios [1][5]. - The report anticipates steady growth in online music, driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) that is expected to outpace membership growth [1][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 31.177 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [2]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach RMB 25.417 billion in 2025, with subscription revenue projected at RMB 17.729 billion, both showing slight increases [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8.905 billion, a 3% increase from prior estimates [2]. Quarterly Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of RMB 7.356 billion, with music subscription revenue growing by 16.6% year-over-year [5][8]. - The number of paying music members reached approximately 122.9 million, with a monthly ARPPU of RMB 11.4, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 2.226 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [5][8]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is projected to be RMB 7.987 billion, with online music revenue expected to grow by 19% year-over-year [10]. - The report anticipates a continued focus on high-quality membership growth, with a forecasted increase in monthly ARPPU to RMB 11.6 [10]. - Non-subscription revenue is expected to grow by 25% year-over-year, driven by advertising and fan economy growth [5][10].