摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，腾讯音乐第三季总收入按年增长21%至85亿元，较该行预期高2.8%。其 中，音乐订阅收入按年增长17%至45亿元，大致符合该行预期。付费用户数按季增加130万，每付费用 户平均收入(ARPPU)为每月11.9元，按年增长11%。盈利方面，经调整非国际财务报告准则净利润按年 增长33%至24亿元，较该行预期高5.1%。毛利率为44.6%，按季下降0.8个百分点，按年上升0.7个百分 点，主要受惠于音乐订阅业务的强劲经营杠杆及自制内容效益，而按季下跌可能因线下内容投入增加。 该行等待业绩会议透露更多前景展望，现予其美股目标价27.5美元及"增持"评级。 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported third-quarter revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the expectation of 2.3 billion yuan due to better-than-expected performance in non-subscription music business [1] - The company adjusted its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the next two years, increasing the 2025 estimate by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan and decreasing the 2026 estimate by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] - The target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks were lowered by 11.6% and 12.7% to $26 and 100 HKD, respectively, both corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Third-quarter revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] Forecast Adjustments - 2025 Non-IFRS net profit forecast increased by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan [1] - 2026 Non-IFRS net profit forecast decreased by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - US stock target price reduced by 11.6% to $26 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price reduced by 12.7% to 100 HKD [1]

该行认为有关忧虑属过份，相信公司增长故事仍大致维持。腾讯音乐与其他平台不同之处，在于独特内 容及对用户的增值服务。公司透过SVIP渗透及更多产品提供，有望实现稳健的ARPU增长，以及进一步 拓展直播娱乐及粉丝经济业务，有利公司整个用户生态圈，并使未来收入来源进一步多元。该行维持对 腾讯音乐"买入"评级，ADR及港股目标价由27美元及106港元下调至25.2美元及99港元。 高盛发表研报指，腾讯音乐第三季度收入及盈利略胜预期，但绩后股价下滑，相信市场忧虑潜在音乐串 流平台竞争，及其对腾讯音乐订阅增长与定价策略的潜在中期影响；以及直播表现业务波动性与低利润 率，或影响明年整体毛利扩张。 ...

该行认为即使腾讯音乐在2026年会短期加大投入，但公司将凭借其稳固的核心内容、用户资产、营运能 力及产业伙伴的竞争力，以丰富的商业化手段及更雄厚的商业化能力持续产生正向的商业化动能。该行 维持对其"买入"评级，美股目标价由27美元下调至24美元，港股目标价由106港元降至94港元。 格隆汇11月13日｜中银国际发表报告指，腾讯音乐第三季总收入按年增长21%，经调整净利润按年增长 33%，分别超出市场预期3%及4%。受益于付费会员数季度净增130万及月均ARPPU按季增长2%至19 元，音乐会员收入按年增长17%，与市场预期一致。按年增长51%的音乐非会员收入继续大超市场预 期，主要由于持续增长的广告、强劲的线下演唱会及艺人周边贡献。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both UBS and market expectations by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 32.6% year-on-year to 2.41 billion yuan, also surpassing UBS and market forecasts by 4% and 3.8% respectively [1] - The management expects continued strong growth in subscription services and new revenue sources driven by SVIP expansion, diversified content, and enhanced user engagement [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit margin: 28.4%, exceeding expectations by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] Market Reaction and Outlook - UBS anticipates a positive reaction from investors to Tencent Music's better-than-expected performance [1] - Investors are awaiting further details on ARPPU trends, SVIP adoption rates, profit margin outlook, and new business strategies [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Music's US stock with a target price of $30 [1]

该机构预计腾讯在中国互联网超大盘股中的利润前景最为强劲，游戏+广告业务存在上行空间，并可能 将业务重点扩展到外部AI云业务；但部分投资者担忧该公司是否会进入下一阶段的AI+推理成本投资 （这可能会抑制利润率改善，与腾讯上一轮短视频投资周期相似）。阿里巴巴云业务/资本支出前景潜 在利好（或将类似于谷歌和亚马逊业绩发布后强劲的股价表现）以及客户管理收入稳健增长；但即时零 售业务导致集团利润大幅下滑，且该业务投资将持续到12月份所在季度。 高盛在近期研报中指出，展望即将发布的中国互联网三季度业绩（腾讯/京东将于本周发布，阿里巴巴/ 美团/拼多多将于本月晚些时候发布），预计超大盘股业绩喜忧参半。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 值得一提的是，高盛认为，相较于全球同业/公司每股盈利增长前景而言，腾讯和阿里巴巴的估值依然 不高，并继续强调腾讯是主要的AI应用概念股，AI赋能旗下各业务线；阿里巴巴则拥有独特的全栈AI 能力、AI云+日常消费场景。 11月13日午后，港股三大指数悉数下跌，恒生科技指数跌超0.5%。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模最大 的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数小幅下跌，持仓股中，比亚迪股份等少数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock price experienced a significant drop of nearly 13%, reaching a low of 73.95 HKD, despite reporting strong third-quarter earnings with a year-on-year profit increase of 36.01% [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending September, Tencent Music reported a shareholder profit of 2.153 billion HKD, which is a 36.01% increase year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share were reported at 0.7 HKD [1] - Under non-IFRS standards, the net profit attributable to equity holders was 2.405 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.58% [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Tencent Music's stock saw a trading volume exceeding 300 million HKD [1] - Bank of America noted that the earnings were generally in line with expectations but highlighted the absence of disclosed SVIP numbers, which were 15 million in the previous quarter [1] - Concerns regarding competition from ByteDance have increased among investors, potentially impacting short-term market sentiment [1] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America maintains a "Neutral" rating for Tencent Music, with a target price of 98.13 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 25 USD for the US stock [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive momentum with the ChiNext index rising by 2.68% at midday, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks rising [6] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain experienced a significant surge, with companies like CATL rising over 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors also performed well, while oil and gas stocks, along with bank stocks, saw a pullback [4] - The real estate sector showed volatility with stocks like China Wuyi hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Huaxia Happiness and Sanxiang Impression also performing well [7] Key Stocks - Notable stock performances included: - Dazhen Lishen up by 25.42% at 37.00 yuan - Shangneng Electric up by 18.82% at 44.22 yuan - Taihe Technology up by 16.74% at 40.96 yuan - Wanrun New Energy up by 14.15% at 101.39 yuan [8] Energy Sector Developments - The energy storage concept stocks continued to strengthen, with companies like Longzhou Co., Weike Technology, and Cangzhou Mingzhu seeing significant gains [7] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integration of new energy, emphasizing the development of new hydropower and wind-solar integrated bases [7] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold sector showed strength with companies like Xin'an Co. and Shengtun Mining hitting the daily limit, while other gold-related stocks also performed well [10] International Market Influence - The main contract for polysilicon futures rose by 3% to 53,835 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend in the materials sector [11] - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.82% [18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.4%, indicating ongoing liquidity management [19] - The RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0865, depreciating by 32 basis points from the previous day [20]

Core Insights - Citigroup's research report indicates that Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both Citigroup's and market expectations by 3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2% year-on-year to 6.97 billion yuan, surpassing Citigroup's expectations by 4%, driven by robust growth in music subscription revenue, as well as increases in offline performances, advertising services, and artist merchandise [1] - Subscription revenue rose by 17.2% year-on-year to 4.5 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 53% of total revenue [1] - Social entertainment revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, falling short of Citigroup's expectations by 1% [1] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted net profit for the period was 2.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28%, exceeding Citigroup's and market expectations by 8% and 7% respectively, attributed to better-than-expected revenue and improved gross margins, although partially offset by increased operating expenses [1] Investment Rating - Citigroup has set a target price of $29 for Tencent Music's U.S. shares and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong stocks rising, particularly in healthcare, conglomerates, and real estate, while consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lagged behind [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.286 billion, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC experienced the most significant net sales [3] - The report anticipates a trend of style switching in the Chinese stock market, with undervalued sectors like chemicals, consumer goods, and banks leading the gains, expected to continue at least until mid-December when policy stimulus clarity increases [3] Market Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,923, up 0.85% for the day and 34.21% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,934, with a slight increase of 0.16% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 32.81% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,000, down 0.07% for the day but up 19.34% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,396, up 1.20% for the day and 40.58% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 19,533, with a significant increase of 3.34% for the day and 30.98% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,428, up 1.17% for the day and 7.75% year-to-date [2] Company Analysis - Tencent Music reported a 21% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 8.46 billion for Q3 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit increasing by 33% to RMB 2.41 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% respectively [4] - The report projects a slowdown in revenue growth to 12% year-on-year for Q4 2025, primarily due to normalization of offline performance revenue [4] - The target price for Tencent Music has been adjusted from USD 29.5 to USD 28.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]