Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 0.94%, and S&P 500 down 0.75% [2][3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Google A dropping over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.7% [3] - Notable gainers included Tencent Music and Weibo, both up over 2%, while NIO fell over 2% [3] Economic Data - The US trade deficit for March reached a record $140.5 billion, exceeding the forecast of $137.2 billion and up from $122.7 billion previously [2] - Exports were $278.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while imports were $418.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2] Agricultural Exports Impact - The decline in US exports has affected agricultural products significantly, with major ports like Oregon and Tacoma seeing export drops of 51% and 28% respectively [4] - The overall impact has been widespread across US ports, indicating a severe disruption in agricultural exports [4] EU-US Trade Relations - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic indicated that US tariffs currently cover 70% of EU goods trade, potentially rising to 97% after further investigations [5] - The EU is preparing countermeasures against US tariffs and aims for a fair negotiation outcome [6] Gold and Oil Market Trends - Gold prices continued to rise, with London gold up nearly 2% and COMEX gold up over 2% [7] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, with potential increases to $4,500 in extreme scenarios [7] - Global gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1, the strongest first-quarter demand since 2016 [8] - Oil prices surged, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent both rising over 3% [8]

5月13日，腾讯音乐将于(美东)盘前披露2025财年一季报（数据来源于纳斯达克官网，预计披露日期为 美国当地时间，实际披露日期以公司公告为准）。 资料显示，腾讯音乐娱乐集团(纽交所股票代码:TME及港交所股票代码:1698)是中国领先的在线音乐与 音频娱乐平台,运营着在国内市场广受欢迎的创新性音乐产品:QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐和全民K 歌。公司的平台提供在线音乐、在线音频、在线K歌、以音乐为核心的直播及线上演出等服务。公司不 仅是音乐流媒体服务提供商,还将平台打造成一个庞大的社区,让音乐爱好者围绕音乐"发现、听、唱、 看、演出、社交"。在公司的平台上,分享、点赞、评论、关注和赠送虚拟礼物等社交互动形式与公司的 产品深度融合,并与公司为用户提供的核心音乐体验高度互补,这进一步提高了用户的参与度和留存率。 公司的一站式音乐与音频娱乐平台让用户在社交场景下与音乐亲密互动。公司拥有海量的曲库内容,包 括授权、自制及共创内容。公司也以现场及录制形式提供广泛的专业制作视频内容,包括音乐视频、演 唱会和音乐表演。此外,数亿用户在公司的平台上分享他们的K歌作品、短视频、音乐直播演出、评论及 音乐相关的文章。公司也是音乐厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Group is reportedly planning to acquire Himalaya, with the deal initiated two months ago and the price significantly reduced, although both companies have not confirmed the sale yet [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Context - The potential acquisition of Himalaya by Tencent Music is speculated to be driven by three main factors: the challenging market environment for niche audio applications, Tencent's significant influence in the audio sector, and the need for Tencent to enhance its offerings in paid audio content [1]. - Previous discussions between Tencent Music and Himalaya regarding a partnership were hindered by management control issues, but recent capital movements by Himalaya, such as a substantial increase in registered capital, are seen as signals for a possible acquisition restart [1][2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Himalaya, founded in 2012, is the largest online audio platform in China, leading in mobile listening duration and online audio revenue as of 2023 [2]. - Despite its leading position, Himalaya has faced growth challenges, with its average monthly active users increasing by only 3.9% from 2021 to 2023, compared to a 24.4% increase in 2021 [2]. Group 3: Financial Overview - Himalaya has attempted multiple IPOs, with a valuation of approximately $5 billion in 2021, but the current acquisition valuation is expected to be between $1 billion and $1.5 billion [3]. - The company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 shows a slight increase, with total revenues of 58.6 billion, 60.6 billion, and 61.6 billion respectively, while net profits fluctuated, with a significant loss in 2021 turning into a profit of 2.24 billion in 2023 due to cost-cutting measures [3][4]. - Subscription services remain the primary revenue source for Himalaya, accounting for 51.7% of total revenue in 2023, although paid content revenue has declined from 10.58 billion in 2021 to 6.94 billion in 2023 [4]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Himalaya's advertising revenue has also seen a decline, with figures of 14.88 billion, 14.49 billion, and 14.23 billion from 2021 to 2023, indicating challenges in monetizing its platform effectively [4]. - The audio app market is perceived as facing significant competition from larger platforms that can offer similar functionalities, leading to skepticism about the future growth of audio apps like Himalaya [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Group is reportedly planning to acquire Ximalaya, with the transaction initiated two months ago and the price significantly reduced, although both companies have not confirmed the sale yet [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya is speculated to be driven by three main reasons: the challenging market environment for niche audio applications, Tencent's significant influence in the audio sector, and Tencent's need to enhance its offerings in paid audio content [1][2]. - Ximalaya's subsidiary recently increased its registered capital from 300 million to 2.8 billion yuan, a rise of 837.6%, which is perceived as a signal for a potential acquisition restart [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Ximalaya, founded in 2012, is the largest online audio platform in China, leading the industry in terms of mobile listening duration and online audio revenue [2]. - The company has faced growth challenges, with its average monthly active users increasing by only 3.9% in 2023, compared to a 24.4% increase in 2021 [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Ximalaya has attempted multiple IPOs, with a 2021 valuation of approximately $5 billion, while the current acquisition valuation is speculated to be between $1 billion and $1.5 billion [3]. - From 2021 to 2023, Ximalaya's revenue figures were 5.86 billion yuan, 6.06 billion yuan, and 6.16 billion yuan, with net profits of -5.106 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan, and 3.736 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. - In 2023, Ximalaya achieved a positive adjusted net profit of 224 million yuan, attributed to cost-cutting measures such as layoffs and reduced marketing expenses [3][4]. Group 4: Revenue Composition - Ximalaya's revenue is primarily derived from four segments: subscriptions (51.7%), advertising (23.1%), live streaming (18.4%), and innovative products and services (6.8%) in 2023 [3][4]. - Subscription service revenue has shown slight growth, with figures of 2.992 billion yuan, 3.081 billion yuan, and 3.189 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, maintaining a contribution of over 50% to total revenue [4]. Group 5: Market Challenges - Ximalaya's advertising revenue has declined from 1.488 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.423 billion yuan in 2023, indicating challenges in monetizing its platform due to the limitations of audio advertising [4]. - The audio app market is perceived as facing significant competition from larger platforms that can offer similar functionalities, leading to concerns about the sustainability of Ximalaya's growth [5].

Economic Policy and Development - The meeting emphasized the need to implement more proactive macro policies, utilizing fiscal and monetary measures to support the real economy and stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][2] - It was highlighted that income for low- and middle-income groups should be increased, and service consumption should be developed to enhance its contribution to economic growth [1][2] Corporate Support and Innovation - Multiple measures will be taken to support struggling enterprises, including enhancing financing support and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2] - The focus will be on cultivating new pillar industries and advancing key core technology breakthroughs, including the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market [2] Risk Management and Stability - Continuous efforts will be made to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2] - The meeting also stressed the importance of maintaining stability in the real estate market and capital markets [2] Employment and Social Welfare - Policies will be introduced to promote employment and entrepreneurship among youth, including financial incentives for organizations hiring eligible graduates [11] - A layered social assistance system will be established to support those affected by tariffs and other economic pressures [2] Digital and Green Development - The government is promoting the establishment of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones to enhance innovation and regulatory frameworks in the digital economy [12] - A collaborative approach to digital and green transformation will be emphasized, with specific tasks outlined to promote low-carbon development in various sectors [15]

全国首例！上市公司董监高违反公开承诺案今宣判 上海金融法院4月25日公开宣判原告刘某某、郑某某诉被告上海金某泰化工股份有限公司、袁某、罗某 证券虚假陈述责任纠纷一案。该案是2019年修订《中华人民共和国证券法》以来，全国首例因上市公司 董监高未履行公开增持承诺引发的证券侵权纠纷案件。上海金融法院经审理认为，本案中，袁某、罗某 在首次作出增持承诺时并无资金准备，在后续延期过程中亦未积极筹措资金，且在面对交易所质询时以 过桥资金制作"虚假"存款证明，故难以认定其有增持的真实意愿。从增持主体、承诺增持金额、市场影 响力等角度看，袁某、罗某公开增持承诺信息的披露，对证券市场和投资者预期产生严重误导，其所主 张的未能履行增持承诺的抗辩理由明显不合理，故虚假陈述行为成立且具有重大性。再次，公开承诺人 袁某、罗某为法定信息披露义务人，而非金某泰。 从信息披露的全过程看，金某泰尽到了基本的审查义务，亦无证据证明金某泰明知或应知袁某、罗某存 在虚假陈述，故不应承担案涉虚假陈述行为的民事赔偿责任。综上，经委托第三方机构损失核定，上海 金融法院一审判令被告袁某、罗某共同赔偿原告刘某某投资损失506,130.96元，共同赔偿原告郑某 ...

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US) with a target price of $15.80, indicating a potential upside of 20.2% from the current price of $13.14 [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved robust performance in 2024, with total revenue of 28.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Net profit reached 7.11 billion RMB, up 36.2%, while adjusted net profit was 8.14 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 30.7% [4][8]. - The integration of AI technology into the music experience is expected to drive a second growth curve for the business, enhancing user engagement and creating new commercial opportunities [5][9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI technology as a key driver for enhancing its competitive edge in the digital music sector, leading to improved user experience and content ecosystem [6][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the online music service revenue was 20.23 billion RMB, growing by 16.1%, with subscription revenue reaching 15.23 billion RMB, a 25.9% increase. The number of paid users grew to 121 million, a 13.4% increase [8]. - The sales gross margin improved from 35.3% in 2023 to 42.3% in 2024, driven by strong growth in subscription and advertising revenues [4][8]. - The report projects continued revenue growth, with expected revenues of 31.08 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.43% [7]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent with a 47.80% stake and Spotify with 4.12% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report values the online music business at 7 times price-to-sales (PS) and the social entertainment business at 6 times price-to-earnings (PE), supporting the target price of $15.80 [6][11].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB7.46 billion (US$1.02 billion), an 8.2% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in online music services[4] - Revenues from music subscriptions reached RMB4.03 billion (US$552 million), representing an 18.0% year-over-year growth, with paying users increasing by 13.4% to 121.0 million[4] - Net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB2.08 billion (US$284 million), a 47.3% year-over-year growth, while non-IFRS net profit was RMB2.40 billion (US$329 million), up 43.0%[4] - Full year 2024 total revenues increased to RMB28.40 billion (US$3.89 billion), a 2.3% year-over-year growth, with music subscription revenues growing by 25.9% to RMB15.23 billion (US$2.09 billion)[24][28] - Total operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB2.41 billion (US$330 million), representing a 40.5% year-over-year increase[18] - For the full year of 2024, net profit was RMB7.11 billion (US$974 million), with net profit attributable to equity holders of the Company at RMB6.64 billion (US$910 million) [30] - Non-IFRS net profit for the full year of 2024 was RMB8.14 billion (US$1.12 billion), and non-IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB7.67 billion (US$1.05 billion) [30] - Basic and diluted earnings per ADS for the full year of 2024 were RMB4.31 (US$0.59) and RMB4.24 (US$0.58), respectively [31] - The profit for the three months ended December 31, 2024, increased to RMB 2,076 million, representing a 47% growth compared to RMB 1,409 million in the same period of 2023[47] - Non-IFRS net profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 8,136 million, up 30.5% from RMB 6,223 million in 2023[47] - Basic earnings per share for Class A and Class B ordinary shares increased to RMB 0.74 for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 0.51 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a 45% increase[47] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from online music services grew by 16.1% year-over-year to RMB5.83 billion (US$799 million) in Q4 2024, driven by subscription and advertising revenue growth[16] - Revenues from social entertainment services decreased by 13.0% to RMB1.63 billion (US$223 million) in Q4 2024, primarily due to adjustments in live-streaming functions[14][28] - Online music services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB21.74 billion (US$2.98 billion), an increase from RMB17.33 billion in 2023 [44] Profitability and Margins - Gross margin for Q4 2024 improved to 43.6% from 38.3% in Q4 2023, attributed to strong growth in music subscription revenues and advertising services[17] - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB12.03 billion (US$1.65 billion), compared to RMB9.80 billion in 2023 [44] - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB8.71 billion (US$1.19 billion), up from RMB6.06 billion in 2023 [44] Cash and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year decreased slightly to RMB 13,164 million from RMB 13,567 million at the beginning of the year[54] - The company reported net cash provided by operating activities of RMB 10,275 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, a significant increase from RMB 7,337 million in 2023[54] - The company experienced a net cash used in investing activities of RMB 6,818 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,863 million in 2023, indicating increased investment activity[54] - The company’s financial assets at fair value through other comprehensive income increased significantly to RMB 14,498 million as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 6,540 million in 2023, reflecting a 121% increase[50] Shareholder Returns - The company announced an annual cash dividend of approximately US$273 million and a new share repurchase program of up to US$1 billion[5][8] - The Company declared a cash dividend of US$0.09 per ordinary share, totaling approximately US$273 million for the fiscal year of 2024 [33] - The board of directors authorized a new Share Repurchase Program to repurchase up to US$1 billion of Class A ordinary shares over a 24-month period starting March 2025 [32] Assets and Equity - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, are RMB 90,444 million, an increase of 19.7% from RMB 75,536 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - The total equity attributable to equity holders of the company increased to RMB 67,863 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 55,907 million as of December 31, 2023, marking a 21.4% growth[51] - Investments accounted for using the equity method rose to RMB 4,669 million as of December 31, 2024, up from RMB 4,274 million in 2023[50] ESG Initiatives - The Company supported 192,000 female artists as part of its ESG initiatives, promoting diversity and inclusion in the music community [34]