公司发布 2025 年第四季度及全年业绩公告，Q4 实现收入 86.4 亿元，同比增长 15.9%，调整后归母净利润 24.9 亿元，同比增长 9%；全年实现收入 329 亿元， 同比增长 15.8%，调整后归母净利润 95.9 亿元，同比增长 25%。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 03 月 22 日 腾讯音乐-SW（01698.HK） 在线音乐收入稳步增长，线下演出业务积极发展 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 ❑ 风险提示：付费用户数增长不及预期、行业竞争加剧、行业监管收紧、版权 资源流失等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 28401 | 32902 | 36057 | 39185 | 42348 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 8% | | 经调整归母净利润(百万元) | 7671 | 9627 | 10409 | 11161 | 11951 | | 同比增长 | 30% | 2 ...

Shares of Tencent Music Entertainment (NYSE: TME) fell 28.8% this week through 3:30 p.m. Friday, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Tencent Music is sometimes regarded as the "Spotify (NYSE: SPOT) of China," since it's the leading streaming music subscription service in the country. However, Tencent Music's business is a bit different, as it also generates revenue from social music interactions, such as karaoke tipping and other interactive services. Will AI create the world's first t ...

2026 年 03 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(下调) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 方博云 S0350521120002 | | | fangby@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 吴倩 S0350525070006 | | | wuq05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 付费用户增长韧性较强，关注 AI 和竞争的 挑战与机遇 ——腾讯音乐-SW（1698.HK）2025 年业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2026/03/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 腾 讯 音 乐 | -33.5% | -41.7% | -28.8% | | -SW | | | | | 恒生指数 | -4.5% | -0.7% | 2.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/03/19 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tencent Music [6] Core Insights - Tencent Music's SVIP user base has surpassed 20 million, with steady growth in average revenue per paid user, and accelerated release of IP value [3] - The company is transitioning from a music platform to a comprehensive sound entertainment empire, leveraging content IP, traffic advantages, and capital capabilities [34] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Tencent Music are as follows: - 2024A: 28,401 million RMB - 2025A: 32,902 million RMB - 2026E: 36,042 million RMB - 2027E: 39,023 million RMB - 2028E: 42,496 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2024A: 6,644 million RMB - 2025A: 11,056 million RMB - 2026E: 9,890 million RMB - 2027E: 10,780 million RMB - 2028E: 11,813 million RMB - Adjusted net profit projections are: - 2024A: 7,671 million RMB - 2025A: 9,588 million RMB - 2026E: 10,454 million RMB - 2027E: 11,322 million RMB - 2028E: 12,329 million RMB [5][34] Revenue Growth - In Q4 2025, Tencent Music achieved revenue of 86.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.9% - The gross margin was 44.7%, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year - Operating profit reached 28.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with an operating margin of 32.9% [34] User Metrics - The number of paid users reached 127 million, with a penetration rate of 24.1%, up by 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) was 11.9 RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [34][26] AI Empowerment - The company is enhancing music creation and user experience through AI, empowering over 150,000 musicians and more than 10 million users to improve their creative efficiency [34]

付费用户数稳增，拥抱 AI 机遇与挑战 腾讯音乐-SW(01698) 证券研究报告 数字媒体 / 公司点评 / 2026.03.19 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-03-18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 44.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 14.33 | | 每股净资产(元) | 23.64 | | 总股本(亿股) | 30.98 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -2% 18% 38% 58% 78% 腾讯音乐-SW 恒生指数 ❖ 事件：2026 年 3 月 17 日，公司发布 2025 年业绩公告。2025 年实现 总收入 329.0 亿元，同比+15.8%；归母净利润 110.6 亿元(+66.4%)，包含 环球音乐股权处置收益 23.7 亿元；非国际准则净利润 95.9 亿元（+25.0%）。 Q4 单季收入 86.4 亿元(+15.9%)，非国际准则净利润 24.9 亿元(+9.0%)。 ❖ 超级会员突破 2000 万，ARPU 稳升。Q4 在线音乐付费用户 1.274 亿， 同比+5.3%；ARPU 为 11.9 元，同比+7.2%。公司 ...

SHENZHEN, China, March 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Millions of music fans are eagerly awaiting another historic moment for Mandopop. After three years and eight months, iconic Mandopop artist Jay Chou is set to release his 16th studio album, “Children of the Sun.” Pre-orders officially began at 13:00 on March 19 across Tencent Music Entertainment Group’s three major platforms: QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music.From youthful anthems to legendary status, Jay Chou now makes a monumental return under the title ...

Core Insights - Jay Chou is set to release his 16th studio album titled "Children of the Sun" after a hiatus of three years and eight months, with pre-orders starting on March 19, 2026, across Tencent Music Entertainment Group's platforms [1][4] - The album features 13 tracks that aim to push musical boundaries while maintaining Jay Chou's signature style, contributing to the legacy of Mandopop [2] - Tencent Music is offering exclusive pre-order bundles, including the "Commemorative Card Edition" and "Commemorative Medal Edition," enhancing the collectible value for fans [3] Company and Industry Summary - Tencent Music Entertainment Group is the exclusive platform for pre-orders of Jay Chou's album in mainland China, emphasizing its commitment to providing a unique music experience for fans [3] - The official release date for "Children of the Sun" is set for March 25, 2026, marking a significant event in the Mandopop industry [4] - The company has previously announced its financial results for Q4 and full year 2025, indicating its ongoing prominence in the online music and audio entertainment sector [5]

Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific stock indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark for the first time since January 5, and the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 3% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell over 2%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index dropped over 1% [3] Sector Performance - The sectors that experienced the largest declines included non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, fertilizers, lithium mining, and rare earths, with several stocks hitting the daily limit down [3] - Gold stocks saw significant drops, with Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold all declining over 7% [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Specific stocks that fell sharply include Zhongjin Gold (down 7.80% to 26.70), Zijin Mining (down 7.45% to 32.32), and Shandong Gold (down 7.04% to 40.65) [4] - Conversely, sectors such as CPO, coal, and oil & gas saw gains, with Mingpu Guangci and Lanyan Holdings hitting the daily limit up [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index both fell over 2%, with tech stocks like Tencent Music and Kuaishou dropping significantly [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential future rate cuts [6] - Concerns were raised regarding rising energy prices potentially increasing overall inflation, with uncertainty about the duration and impact of these effects [6] Commodity Prices - Silver prices plummeted, with Shanghai silver dropping over 10%, and gold prices falling below $4800 [7]

今日早参 2026 年 3 月 19 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：3 月 FOMC：联储对降息更加谨慎 概览：北京时间 3 月 19 日（周四）凌晨美联储公布 3 月议息会议决定，政 策利率维持在 3.5-3.75%，点阵图维持 2026-27 年各降息 1 次的指引，但联 储上调增长通胀预测以及鲍威尔表态均显示，联储对降息变得更加谨慎。 风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱，中东冲突持续性与烈度超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-03-19 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 固定收益：在防御中挖掘信用债结构性机会 通胀担忧上行+政策观察期+供给潜在扰动，3-4 月债市相比 1-2 月份胜率不 高、赔率降低，但资金面仍平稳、外部扰动短空长多，债市调整空间有限。 机构行为方面，分红险增速放缓+心态谨慎，保险 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营 的官方唯一订阅号。其他任何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大 证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证券研究所的官方订阅号。 免责声明 4Q25在线音乐业务 延续了稳健的增长态势，但订阅业务边际走弱，非订阅业务增长强势。在线音乐业务收入71.0亿元 （yoy+21.7%），占总收入比例同比提升4.0pct至82.2%。1）会员订阅收入45.6亿元（yoy+13.2%），订阅 用户达1.27亿人（yoy+5.3%），SVIP用户规模达超2000万人，订阅ARPPU同比增长7.2%达11.9元，但环 比基 ...