证券研究报告 腾讯音乐 (TME US/1698 HK) 多元内容生态下凸显强劲变现能力 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 13 日│美国/中国香港 互联网 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称 TME）公布 25Q2（以下简称 Q2）业绩：收 入 84.4 亿元/yoy+17.9%（彭博一致预测为 79.9 亿元/yoy+11.6%）；调整 后净利润 26.4 亿元/yoy+33%（彭博一致预测 22.7 亿元/yoy+14.3%）。收 入和利润全面超一致预期，主要得益于超级会员的快速发展和非订阅业务的 强劲增长。Q2 公司继续扩大 K-POP、影视综艺等领域的内容优势，并宣布 拟收购喜马拉雅 100%股权，以多元内容生态赋能长期高质量增长。我们认 为公司行业龙头地位稳固，产业链整合能力强，长期利润率仍有上行空间， 维持"买入"评级。 超级会员表现强劲，带动 ARPU 稳健提升 Q2 在线音乐收入同比增长 26.4%至 68.5 亿元，其中：1）订阅收入同比增 长 17.1%至 43.8 亿元，在线音乐付费用户数同比增长 6.3%至 1.244 亿（符 合彭博预期），单个付费用户月均收入（ARPPU）环比提升 ...

8月12日，美国CPI数据公布，美股三大指数集体收涨， 标普500指数 、纳斯达克指数创下 新高。 大型科技股和中概股集体上涨。英伟达、Meta股价创下新高； 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 1.49%， 腾讯音乐二季度业绩"喜人"，涨超10%。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ "稳定币第一股"Circle发布美股上市以来的首份业绩报告， 业绩亏损，营收增幅超预期。 百年胶片巨头柯达大跌，公司在财报中发出经营预警。 国际油价继续下跌，欧佩克上调明年全球石油需求预期。 受CPI提振，美股大涨 美东时间8月12日（周二），美股三大指数均涨超1%， 标普500指数 和纳斯达克指数再创 新高。 截至收盘， 标普500指数 上 涨1.13%，报 收于 6445.76点；纳斯达克综合指数 上 涨 1.39%，报 收于 21681.9点；道琼斯工业指数涨1.1%，报 收于 44458.61点。 市场受到最新通胀数据的提振。 美国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于预期 的2.8%；剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，略高于预期的3%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of Tencent Music's Q2 2025 earnings, with total revenue increasing by 17.9% year-on-year to 8.44 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 33% to 2.64 billion yuan [1][2] - Tencent Music's online music service revenue grew by 26.4% to 6.85 billion yuan, with the number of paid users increasing by 6.3% to 124.4 million, and the average monthly revenue per paid user rising from 10.7 yuan to 11.7 yuan [1] - Citigroup noted that Tencent Music's total revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations by 5.5% and 5.7%, respectively, driven by a 17% increase in subscription revenue and a 47% increase in non-subscription online music revenue [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that southbound capital has seen a net inflow of over 910 billion HKD this year, primarily flowing into core assets in AI and new consumption sectors, indicating a trend towards emerging industries [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes 30 leading Hong Kong tech stocks, focusing on the AI industry chain, with companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, SMIC, and BYD expected to become the "seven giants" of Chinese tech stocks [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can access Chinese AI core assets through the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [2]

中国资产全线爆发。 今日港股开盘后，恒生指数、恒生科技指数集体大涨，均涨超1%。其中，腾讯音乐暴涨超17%，其最新发布 的财报大超市场预期。隔夜美股市场中，中概股的表现也非常亮眼，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.49%。 另外，金融市场对美联储降息的预期大幅升温也是港股科技股大涨的主要原因。美东时间8月12日，美国财政 部长贝森特暗示，在上月按兵不动之后，美联储应当对9月降息50个基点持开放态度。 大爆发 8月13日，港股开盘后，恒生指数、恒生科技指数集体大涨，截至10:10，涨幅分别为1.12%、1.22%。 其中，腾讯音乐暴涨超17%，创出历史新高。消息面上，腾讯音乐最新发布的财报大超市场预期。 具体来看，2025年第二季度，腾讯音乐总收入达84.4亿元，同比增长17.9%；调整后净利润为26.4亿元，同比 增长33%。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长26.4%至68.5亿元，在线音乐订阅收入同比增长17.1%至43.8亿 元，在线音乐付费用户数达1.244亿，ARPPU（单个付费用户月均收入）进一步提升至11.7元。 腾讯音乐管理层透露，SVIP订阅用户已突破1500万，创下历史新高，反映出用户对高端音乐体验 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,970, up 0.25% for the day and 24.48% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.10% and the S&P 500 up 1.13%, reflecting positive sentiment driven by moderate inflation data [3] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose 0.52% and is up 28.47% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Utilities Index fell 0.30% but is still up 5.00% for the year [2] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 9.45 billion, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks [3] Economic Policies and Impacts - The Chinese government announced targeted interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, potentially leading to an increase in loan growth by CNY 1 trillion [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened by buying HKD 7.065 billion to defend the currency peg, with total purchases since June reaching HKD 116.6 billion [3] Company Analysis: Kingdee International - Kingdee reported a 1H25 revenue of CNY 3.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, aligning with expectations [4] - The company aims for AI-related revenue to constitute over 30% of total revenue by 2030, with AI contracts exceeding CNY 150 million in 1H25 [4] Company Analysis: Tencent Music - Tencent Music's 2Q25 revenue grew 18% to CNY 8.44 billion, with Non-IFRS net profit increasing 37% to CNY 2.57 billion, surpassing market expectations [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenue and profit increases of 17% and 28% respectively for 3Q25 [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) has a target price of HKD 24.00, representing a 24% upside potential [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of USD 44.95, indicating a 19% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 660.00, reflecting an 18% upside potential [6]

Summary of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - **Market Cap**: $39.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $34.5 billion - **Industry**: Music Streaming and Entertainment in China Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Performance**: Revenue and profit exceeded expectations, prompting a revision of profit estimates for FY25-27 upwards by 6-7% [1] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected 21% growth in music service revenue and 24% growth in net profit for FY25 [1] - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25: Rmb 32,309.7 million (up 2.4% from previous estimates) - FY26: Rmb 36,367.8 million (up 4.6%) - FY27: Rmb 40,429.3 million (up 5.3%) [21] Core Business Insights - **Diversification of Revenue Streams**: TME is expanding beyond streaming and subscriptions into non-subscription revenue sources such as advertising, concert sponsorship, and fan economy initiatives [1][18] - **SVIP Membership Growth**: SVIP membership reached over 15 million, with expectations to grow to 25.9 million by 2027, increasing penetration from 13% to 19% of total paying members [11][24] - **Non-Subscription Revenue Growth**: Non-subscription music revenue grew by over 46% year-on-year, driven by a 30% increase in advertising and a doubling of fan merchandising and concert sponsorship revenue [11][18] Financial Metrics and Ratios - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY25: Rmb 6.15 (up from Rmb 5.77) - FY26: Rmb 7.19 (up from Rmb 6.75) - FY27: Rmb 8.13 (up from Rmb 7.64) [5] - **Profit Margins**: Expected to sustain margin expansion towards low 30% operating profit margin (OPM) and net profit margin (NPM) [18] - **Valuation**: Target price raised to $27 (from $21) and HK$106 (from HK$82) reflecting improved growth prospects [19] Growth Projections - **3Q25 Expectations**: - 17% year-on-year group revenue growth - 23% year-on-year online music revenue growth - Gross profit of Rmb 3.6 billion with a gross profit margin of 43.9% [20] - **Long-Term Outlook**: Non-subscription business expected to outpace subscription revenue growth over the next 2-3 years [11][18] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Potential derailment from the current growth trajectory - Higher-than-expected content pricing from label companies - Inability to maintain market dominance and subscription growth - Slower-than-expected expansion of non-subscription services [22] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Reiterated "Buy" rating based on strong performance, diversified revenue streams, and positive growth outlook [1][19]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock price surged over 17%, reaching a historical high of 104 HKD following the release of its Q2 earnings report, indicating strong financial performance and investor confidence [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached 8.442 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.91% [1] - Shareholder profit amounted to 2.409 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.22% [1] - Adjusted profit for Q2 was 2.574 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.43% [1] Year-to-Date Performance - For the first half of the year, shareholder profit reached 6.7 billion RMB, which is a year-on-year increase of 116% [1] - Adjusted profit for the first half was 4.698 billion RMB, marking a rise of 31.34% compared to the previous year [1]

【 导读 】 美股收涨，标普500指数、纳斯达克指数创下新高， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.49% 见习记者 储是 8月12日，美国CPI数据公布，美股三大指数集体收涨， 标普500指数 、纳斯达克指数创下新高。 市场受到最新通胀数据的提振。 美国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于预期的2.8%；剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比 上涨3.1%，略高于预期的3%。 高盛资产管理多资产解决方案的联席CIO亚历山德拉·威尔逊-埃利松多解读称，美联储的政策立场高度依赖数据，在通胀受控且就业数据中 劳动市场疲软迹象日益明显的情况下，关注点现在将更偏向于就业。这份通胀数据支持在9月进行一次保险性降息，这将成为市场的关键推 动力。 在数据公布后，降息预期大幅上升。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的交易数据，交易员们对9月降息概率的押注已经超过9 0%， 高于数据公 布前的85%。交易员们也进一步增加了对10月和12月降息的押注。 大型科技股和中概股集体上涨。英伟达、Meta股价创下新高； 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.49%， 腾讯音乐二季度业绩"喜人"，涨超 10%。 "稳定币第一股"Circle发布美股上 ...

消息面上，腾讯音乐发布了截至2025年6月30日止的第二季度未经审计财务业绩报告。财报显示，公司 二季度总收入同比增长17.9%达84.4亿元，调整后净利润同比增长33.0%达26.4亿元。其中，在线音乐业 务持续高质量增长，在线音乐服务收入同比增长26.4%至68.5亿元，在线音乐订阅收入同比增长17.1%至 43.8亿元，在线音乐付费用户数同比增长6.3%至1.244亿，ARPPU进一步提升至11.7元。 智通财经获悉，腾讯音乐-SW(01698)高开近13%，截至发稿，涨12.8%，报99.6港元，成交额1044.8万港 元。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs. The Dow Jones increased by 1.10% to 44,458.61 points, the Nasdaq rose by 1.39% to 21,681.90 points, and the S&P 500 gained 1.13% to 6,445.76 points [2][3]. CPI Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-over-year, which is below the market expectation of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding both the previous month's 2.9% and the market expectation of 3% [7][8]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased significantly, with a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 6.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [8]. Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks experienced gains, with Intel rising over 5%, Meta increasing by over 3% (approaching a market cap of $2 trillion), and other tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Google rising over 1%. Notably, Meta and Nvidia reached new closing highs [5]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.49%, with Tencent Music increasing nearly 12%, and other companies like Weibo, JD, and Alibaba rising over 3%. However, NIO fell nearly 9%, and XPeng dropped over 6% [5]. International Relations - U.S. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin on March 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The meeting will focus on listening to Putin's perspective [10]. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion for the first time, attributed to the federal government accumulating debt at a record pace [12].