Summary of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Investor Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - **Ticker**: TME US - **Date of Call**: December 3, 2025 - **Sector**: Internet & New Media Key Points Industry Position and Competition - TME is confident in maintaining its leadership in China's online music market due to its focus on user cohorts, extensive content library, and ecosystem advantages [2][2][2] - Despite Soda Music (owned by ByteDance) surpassing 100 million monthly active users (MAUs) in July 2025, TME differentiates itself by attracting more engaged users who prefer personalized experiences and artist connections [2][2][2] - TME's music library includes over 100 million tracks, significantly broader than Soda Music's focus on popular hits [2][2][2] - TME's monetization strategy includes subscriptions and value-added services, contrasting with Soda Music's reliance on advertising [2][2][2] Subscription Services - TME anticipates low-teens growth in music subscription revenue for 2026, driven by an increase in paying users and improvement in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [3][3][3] - The Super VIP (SVIP) program is expected to enhance user engagement, with SVIP members listening over 100 minutes daily, 20 minutes more than regular users [4][4][4] - SVIP retention rates have improved from mid-50% to mid-70%, with benefits including high-quality sound, concert access, and exclusive content [4][4][4] - TME aims to increase SVIP users from approximately 20 million to 50 million based on historical consumption patterns [4][4][4] Non-Subscription Revenue Growth - TME projects over 20% growth in non-subscription music service revenue for 2026, driven by advertising, concerts, and fan economy initiatives [6][6][6] - Advertising revenue growth is attributed to diversified channels, AI enhancements, and innovative ad formats [7][7][7] - TME is optimistic about expanding its share in the fragmented concert market, currently valued at CNY 40-50 billion, leveraging its large user base and artist relationships [10][10][10] Financial Considerations - The concert business has a low gross profit margin (GPM) in the mid-single digits to teens, while merchandise has a higher GPM in the mid-to-high teens [11][11][11] - TME expects some dilution in GPM due to increased revenue from concerts and merchandise but anticipates moderation over time due to economies of scale [11][11][11] New Initiatives - TME launched a profitable "Bubble" service on QQ music, focusing on onboarding more artists and localizing features for Chinese users [12][12][12] - The acquisition of Ximalaya is pending government approval and is expected to enhance TME's financials and content offerings [13][13][13] International Strategy - TME plans to explore concert and fan economy opportunities in Southeast Asia and Greater China, while deprioritizing global subscription expansion due to high costs and competition [14][14][14] Stock Rating - TME maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of USD 26.00, while the closing price on December 3, 2025, was USD 18.31 [8][8][8] Risks - Potential risks include higher-than-expected user churn, lower growth in paying users, and regulatory tightening affecting monetization initiatives [21][21][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

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Core Thesis - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is positioned favorably in the Chinese music streaming market, with a strong market share and a shift towards monetization strategies [2][5] Market Position - TME commands over 70% market share in China through platforms like QQ Music, Kugou, Kuwo, and WeSing [2] - The company has transitioned from a subscriber growth model to a focus on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) uplift and premium subscriptions [2] Revenue and Growth - Online music services contribute over 75% of TME's revenues, with China's paid music penetration at approximately 11%, significantly lower than the West's 52% [2] - TME's revenue grew by 20.6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with ARPPU increasing to 11.9 and gross margin expanding [5] Competitive Advantages - TME benefits from a fragmented rights landscape, allowing for favorable licensing terms and margin resilience, with a gross margin of 34.1% projected from FY20 to FY24 [3] - The integration with Tencent's ecosystem enhances user engagement and retention, driving consistent ARPU growth of around 10-15% year-over-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The pending acquisition of XML could add 300 million monthly active users (MAUs) and enhance long-form audio offerings, increasing monetization potential [4] - TME's extensive music catalog of approximately 260 million tracks and social engagement strategies help mitigate competitive switching risks [4] Valuation and Outlook - TME's forward P/E ratio suggests a target price of $20.9, indicating an upside of approximately 11.7% [5] - The company's focus on high-margin operations and strategic initiatives in the fan economy and XML integration presents a compelling risk/reward profile in the growing Chinese digital music market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rise of Soda Music, a new player in the mobile music app industry, which has quickly gained a significant user base despite lacking exclusive rights to popular artists and a distinct artistic style [3][4]. Group 1: Market Position and User Growth - Soda Music has reached 120 million monthly active users by September 2025, marking a 90.7% year-on-year growth, surpassing KuGou Music and approaching NetEase Cloud Music's 147 million users [4]. - The app has positioned itself as a top competitor in the market, ranking among the top four music apps in terms of monthly active users [3]. Group 2: Unique Features and User Engagement - Soda Music employs a "brushing music" interface, allowing users to switch songs easily, similar to the experience on Douyin (TikTok), which enhances user engagement [6]. - The app integrates Douyin's long video content, allowing users to access a variety of media, including talk shows and educational videos, directly within the music app [6][8]. - Users have reported that Soda Music's recommendations are highly accurate, often feeling that the app understands their preferences better than they do [8][9]. Group 3: Monetization Strategy - Unlike competitors, Soda Music offers a completely free listening experience by allowing users to watch ads for access to the full music library, appealing to price-sensitive consumers [11][13]. - The app's subscription prices are lower than those of QQ Music, KuGou Music, and NetEase Cloud Music, making it an attractive option for users [11]. Group 4: Copyright Challenges and Strategies - Soda Music faces challenges regarding music copyright, as it lacks the exclusive rights that competitors like Tencent Music have secured [14]. - The app has focused on expanding its mainstream music rights and leveraging Douyin's ecosystem to create its own content sources [15][17]. Group 5: User Demographics and Market Impact - Soda Music attracts a different user demographic compared to its competitors, with a significant portion of its users coming from lower-tier cities and a higher male-to-female ratio [18][19]. - The app's growth has had a notable impact on KuGou Music, which has seen a decline in active users, indicating Soda Music's disruptive presence in the market [22]. Group 6: Douyin's Strategic Intent - Douyin's motivation for developing Soda Music is to capture the value generated by popular songs that originate on its platform, ensuring that it benefits directly from the music consumption that follows [25][26]. - The establishment of a complete music ecosystem, from creation to distribution, is part of Douyin's strategy to enhance user engagement and retention [26][28].

Core Insights - Tencent Music and Xinghai Conservatory of Music have launched a collaboration focused on AI technology in the music field, aiming to integrate music technology into education and industry [1][3][9] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The partnership will explore innovative paths for education and technology integration, with a focus on music AI collaboration [3] - Xinghai Conservatory students will utilize Tencent Music's platform for specialized model training and research, enhancing the application of AI and virtual technology in arts education [4][6] Group 2: Institutional Impact - The establishment of the Music Technology College at Xinghai Conservatory will optimize the music discipline layout, reform talent cultivation structures, and strengthen research project development [6] - The collaboration aims to create real industry scenarios for students, allowing them to engage with cutting-edge industry demands and trends [6][9] Group 3: Future Directions - The partnership is seen as a milestone in strategic cooperation, promoting the integration of culture, arts, and technology [9] - Both parties are committed to sustainable development in the music industry and innovation in higher arts education through collaborative projects and mutual empowerment [9]

Core Insights - The digital music industry in China is transitioning towards a focus on "lyric and music copyright" following the wave of legitimate recording products [1] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the China Music Copyright Association and Tencent Music Entertainment Group to address long-standing issues related to lyric and music authorization and distribution [1] Industry Overview - Over the past decade, the Chinese digital music market has seen a significant reduction in piracy, with the piracy rate dropping from 99% in 2012 to 4% in 2018, indicating a shift towards legitimate music consumption [1] - Despite improvements in the market, the rights of lyric and music creators remain inadequately protected compared to the visibility of singers and record companies [1] Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation aims to tackle the complexities of copyright authorization, rights confirmation, and distribution transparency, which are core pain points in the industry [1] - The China Music Copyright Association, as the only collective management organization for music copyright in mainland China, holds a vast amount of lyric and music copyright resources [1] - Tencent Music, as a leading digital music platform, possesses strong content distribution channels and technical capabilities, making this partnership strategically significant [1] Expected Outcomes - The collaboration is expected to enhance the legitimate use of online music works and promote a healthier, more prosperous music copyright ecosystem [2] - It aims to ensure that lyric and music authors receive their rightful copyright earnings in a more standardized manner [2] - The partnership may set a benchmark for the industry, encouraging other platforms to embrace legitimate practices and respect original works [2]

Core Points - The China Music Copyright Association and Tencent Music Entertainment Group have established a strategic cooperation on music copyright [1] - The partnership aims to enhance the protection of music works' lyrics and compositions, improve the licensing mechanism, and explore new models for value transformation in the music industry [1] - The collaboration is expected to contribute to the legitimate and high-quality development of China's digital music industry and create a healthy and orderly copyright ecosystem [1]

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

Group 1 - The core opportunity in the internet and media sectors for 2025 is centered around AI revaluation, particularly in cloud computing, and the globalization and youth-oriented trends in self-consumption, such as trendy toys, music, and concerts [3][4] - AI cloud capital expenditure (capex) is expected to expand in its second year, with a focus on return on investment (ROI) from AI investments, making capex/operating cash flow a key metric for investors [3][4] - Major companies to watch in the AI cloud space include Alibaba, Baidu, and Kingsoft Cloud, which are focusing on domestic production and infrastructure [3][12] Group 2 - The AI application landscape is shifting from conceptual discussions to a focus on commercial viability, with significant developments in AI advertising and video monetization expected in 2026 [3][4] - Tencent, Bilibili, Meitu, Kuaishou, and Focus Technology are highlighted as key players in the AI application ecosystem, with a particular emphasis on the monetization of chatbot applications and the evolution of AI video tools into community platforms [3][4] - The gaming sector is seeing structural opportunities driven by Generation Z and international expansion, with a focus on companies like Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Xindong Company [3][4] Group 3 - The self-consumption trend is expected to continue, with gaming, music, and trendy toys being key areas of growth, particularly as the market adjusts post-2025 [3][4] - The video sector is anticipated to reach a turning point, with policy stabilization and diverse monetization strategies being crucial for growth [3][4] - Companies such as Mango Super Media, Shanghai Film, and Reading Group are positioned to benefit from these trends [3][4] Group 4 - The report indicates a recovery in companies like Focus Media, Vision Source, and educational publishing firms, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous performance and valuation adjustments in the context of evolving market conditions [3][4] Group 5 - The domestic cloud computing market is witnessing increased capital expenditure from major internet companies, with Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of measuring the health of cloud investments through the capex/operating cash flow ratio, with Tencent's ratio being notably lower than its peers [19][29] - AI-driven cloud services are expected to maintain higher profit margins compared to traditional cloud offerings, with a focus on internal workload efficiencies [29][30] Group 6 - The report outlines the competitive landscape of AI applications, noting that Chinese companies are making significant strides in the global market, particularly in productivity tools and content generation [34][35] - The emergence of ChatGPT as a multi-functional platform is reshaping the AI application ecosystem, with significant implications for user engagement and commercial applications [35][39] - Advertising remains a critical area for AI commercialization, with companies like Meta, Tencent, and Bilibili leveraging AI to enhance ad performance and efficiency [43][49]