We recently published 10 Stocks Suffer Heavy Selling Pressure. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) is one of the worst-performing stocks on Wednesday. Tencent Music fell by 8.39 percent on Wednesday to close at $19.01 apiece as investors took path from an investment firm’s lower price target for its stock. In a market note, Macquarie reduced its price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) to $28.30 from $29.80 previously, but maintained its “outperform” rating on the stock. Sti ...

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported its unaudited financial performance for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, showing total revenue of RMB 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, driven primarily by online music service revenue of RMB 6.97 billion, which grew by 27.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 2.15 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year, while the non-IFRS measure was RMB 2.41 billion, reflecting a 32.6% increase [1] - Despite stable financial growth, the user base of Tencent Music is under pressure, with monthly active users for online music services declining by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached RMB 8.46 billion, a 20.6% increase from the previous year [1] - Online music service revenue was RMB 6.97 billion, marking a 27.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 2.15 billion, a 36.0% increase year-on-year [1] - Monthly active users for online music services decreased to 551 million, down 4.3% year-on-year [2] User Metrics - Paid users for online music services reached 125.7 million, a 5.6% increase year-on-year [2] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to RMB 11.9, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year growth [2] - The decline in monthly active users has been a consistent trend, with a 16-quarter streak of year-on-year decreases [2] Business Development - Tencent Music is expanding its content ecosystem through collaborations with various labels and hosting international tours, such as G-DRAGON's concerts in Australia [5] - The company launched the first TMElive International Music Awards (TIMA), featuring 22 Asian artists and attracting over 20,000 attendees [5] - Strategic partnerships with labels like DREAMUS and KING RECORDS have been established to enhance the music library [5] Market Position - The overall market for music apps is facing challenges, with major competitors like KuGou, QQ Music, and KuWo experiencing a decline in monthly active users [2][4] - NetEase Cloud Music showed a slight increase in monthly active users, while ByteDance's Soda Music achieved a 90.7% year-on-year growth [2][4] Innovations and User Engagement - Tencent Music is focusing on enhancing user experience through technological upgrades, including AI-generated features and improved audio quality [10] - The membership system is designed to cater to different user needs, with a multi-tiered approach that includes free, ad-supported, and premium memberships [10] - The introduction of exclusive content and enhanced audio features has driven the growth of super memberships, contributing to ARPU increases [10] Internal Issues - Tencent Music faced internal corruption issues, leading to the dismissal of two key management personnel, although their actions were not directly related to current business operations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous strengthening of China's capital market has led to a deepening re-evaluation of the value of quality assets, with industry leaders like Tencent Music being a focal point for investors due to their robust growth trends demonstrated in recent financial reports [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music reported total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a non-IFRS net profit of 2.48 billion RMB, up 27.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong and stable growth trajectory [1] - The online music subscription business showed particularly strong performance, with paid user numbers increasing by 5.6% to 125.7 million and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) rising by 10.2% to 11.9 RMB, contributing to a 17.2% increase in subscription revenue to 4.5 billion RMB [1] Growth Drivers - Tencent Music's growth is driven by its "one body, two wings" strategy, which focuses on deepening user value rather than merely expanding user scale, enhancing platform attractiveness and user willingness to pay [2][9] - The company has been actively introducing diverse and global content, enhancing its international influence, and hosting a series of concerts for well-known artists to boost content services [2][3] Non-Subscription Business Expansion - Tencent Music has innovated its advertising services and marketing models, exemplified by the "Sprite Cool" national campus music competition, which successfully engaged young consumers and deepened brand connections [5] - The platform has upgraded its features to provide immersive and engaging user experiences, optimizing its multi-tier membership system to cater to diverse user needs [5] Long-Term Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth path, with increasing user willingness to pay and significant market potential yet to be tapped, particularly among the post-2000 generation [8][9] - Tencent Music's ARPPU is anticipated to continue rising, supported by its differentiated content and services, particularly from SVIP users [9] Market Recognition - Tencent Music's consistent growth has garnered positive recognition from numerous financial institutions, with analysts from firms like CICC and Goldman Sachs raising their profit forecasts and target prices for the company [10][11] - The company's robust financial performance and sustainable growth in non-subscription revenue have led to an upward adjustment in long-term revenue growth expectations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous strengthening of China's capital market has led to a deepening re-evaluation of the value of quality assets, with industry leaders that combine value and growth attributes, such as Tencent Music, receiving significant investor attention due to their robust growth trends reflected in recent financial reports [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music reported total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit of 2.48 billion RMB, up 27.7% year-on-year, indicating strong growth [5] - The online music subscription business showed particularly strong performance, with paid user numbers increasing by 5.6% to 125.7 million and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) rising by 10.2% to 11.9 RMB, contributing to a 17.2% increase in subscription revenue to 4.5 billion RMB [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music's growth is driven by its "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on deepening user value rather than just expanding user scale, enhancing platform attractiveness and user willingness to pay [6][11] - The company has been diversifying and globalizing its content, hosting international concerts and events to enhance its global industry influence, such as the TIMA International Music Awards and G-DRAGON's world tour [6][8] Non-Subscription Business Growth - Tencent Music has expanded its non-subscription revenue sources through innovative advertising services and events, such as the "Sprite Cool" national campus music competition, which successfully engaged young consumers [8] - The platform has upgraded its features to provide a more immersive experience and optimized its multi-tier membership system to meet diverse user needs, enhancing user engagement and willingness to pay [8][11] Long-Term Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trajectory, with increasing user willingness to pay and a significant market potential yet to be tapped, particularly among the post-2000 generation [11][12] - Tencent Music's ARPPU is anticipated to continue rising, supported by its differentiated content and services, particularly from SVIP users [12] Market Recognition - Tencent Music's consistent growth has garnered positive recognition from numerous financial institutions, with firms like CICC and Goldman Sachs raising their profit forecasts and target prices for the company based on its strong performance and growth potential [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) [5] Core Insights - Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 8.46 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 20.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 8.23 billion RMB, driven by better-than-expected growth in non-subscription revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 2.405 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32.6% [1] - The online music revenue was 6.97 billion RMB, up 27.2% year-over-year, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, while social entertainment services and other revenues declined by 2.7% [1] Revenue Structure Summary - Subscription revenue reached 4.50 billion RMB, growing 17.2% year-over-year, with a music MAU of 551 million, a decrease of 4.3% year-over-year [2] - The number of paid subscribers increased by 5.6% year-over-year to 126 million, with a net addition of 1.3 million users from the previous quarter [2] - Non-subscription revenue was 2.47 billion RMB, showing over 50% year-over-year growth, with strong performance in advertising and live events [2] Expense Summary - Total expenses for Q3 2025 were 1.31 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.6%, with sales and marketing expenses rising by 18.2% due to increased content promotion and channel spending [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly revised down to 9.70 billion RMB, 10.98 billion RMB, and 12.51 billion RMB, respectively [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 32.78 billion RMB, 37.30 billion RMB, and 41.92 billion RMB, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.8%, and 12.4% respectively [4]

格隆汇11月13日｜里昂发表报告指，网易云音乐和腾讯音乐过去一周股价表现落后，因市场忧虑字节跳 动旗下汽水音乐带来的竞争加剧。在用户快速增长的背景下，汽水音乐过去一年在内容及变现策略上保 持一致，没有显著变化。该行认为，由于各平台战略定位及产品差异化，直接爆发正面竞争的风险较 低，重申对网易云音乐和腾讯音乐"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% and an adjusted net profit of 2.48 billion RMB, up 27.7% year-on-year [1] - The online music service revenue reached 6.97 billion RMB, a 27.2% increase year-on-year, while online music subscription revenue was 4.5 billion RMB, growing 17.2% year-on-year [1] - The average revenue per paid user per month increased from 10.8 RMB in Q3 2024 to 11.9 RMB in Q3 2025 [1] Business Highlights - The company enhanced partnerships with well-known record labels and artists, expanding its comprehensive music library [1] - Collaborations with leading game developers were noted, including a partnership with Tencent Games for the 10th anniversary theme song of "Honor of Kings" and a first-time collaboration with Blizzard Entertainment to introduce 50 classic game soundtracks [1] Financial Metrics - Total costs for Q3 increased by 18.8% to 4.78 billion RMB, primarily due to rising costs associated with offline concerts, IP-related expenses, and advertising agency fees [2] - The gross margin improved from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025, driven by growth in music subscription and advertising service revenues [2] Cash Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company held cash, cash equivalents, time deposits, and short-term investments totaling 36.08 billion RMB [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 grew by 21% year-on-year to 8.5 billion yuan, exceeding the bank's expectations by 2.8% [1] Revenue Summary - Music subscription revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to 4.5 billion yuan, roughly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - The number of paying users rose by 1.3 million quarter-on-quarter, with average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) at 11.9 yuan per month, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] Profitability Summary - Adjusted net profit under non-International Financial Reporting Standards grew by 33% year-on-year to 2.4 billion yuan, surpassing Morgan Stanley's expectations by 5.1% [1] - Gross margin stood at 44.6%, down 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from strong operating leverage in the music subscription business and the effectiveness of self-produced content [1] Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley is awaiting further insights on future prospects during the earnings conference and has set a target price of $27.5 for its U.S. stock with an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported third-quarter revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the expectation of 2.3 billion yuan due to better-than-expected performance in non-subscription music business [1] - The company adjusted its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the next two years, increasing the 2025 estimate by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan and decreasing the 2026 estimate by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] - The target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks were lowered by 11.6% and 12.7% to $26 and 100 HKD, respectively, both corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Third-quarter revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] Forecast Adjustments - 2025 Non-IFRS net profit forecast increased by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan [1] - 2026 Non-IFRS net profit forecast decreased by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - US stock target price reduced by 11.6% to $26 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price reduced by 12.7% to 100 HKD [1]

该行认为有关忧虑属过份，相信公司增长故事仍大致维持。腾讯音乐与其他平台不同之处，在于独特内 容及对用户的增值服务。公司透过SVIP渗透及更多产品提供，有望实现稳健的ARPU增长，以及进一步 拓展直播娱乐及粉丝经济业务，有利公司整个用户生态圈，并使未来收入来源进一步多元。该行维持对 腾讯音乐"买入"评级，ADR及港股目标价由27美元及106港元下调至25.2美元及99港元。 高盛发表研报指，腾讯音乐第三季度收入及盈利略胜预期，但绩后股价下滑，相信市场忧虑潜在音乐串 流平台竞争，及其对腾讯音乐订阅增长与定价策略的潜在中期影响；以及直播表现业务波动性与低利润 率，或影响明年整体毛利扩张。 ...