Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Music (01698) is expected to see significant growth in new business in 2025, with projected Non-IFRS net profits of 9.63 billion yuan and 10.75 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and Non-IFRS net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6%, slightly exceeding CICC's expectations [2] - The company’s online music subscription revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 17.2% to 4.49 billion yuan, with a net increase of 1.3 million paying users, reaching a total of 126 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The subscription business shows profitability resilience, while non-subscription business demonstrates growth potential, with non-subscription revenue in Q3 2025 increasing by 50.3% to 2.48 billion yuan, driven by concert and artist economy revenues [3] - The company expects a continued increase in paid users and ARPPU, projecting a rise to 12.1 yuan/month in Q4 2025 [3] Group 3: Margin and Investment - Q3 2025 gross margin was 43.5%, with stable sales expenses and a 5.3% year-on-year increase in management expenses; the company is investing in offline performances and IP economy, which may impact short-term margins but is expected to support long-term growth [4] - The fluctuation in gross margin is attributed to the rising proportion of concert-related revenues, with expectations for a rebound in Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Strategic Direction - The company is committed to a dual-wing strategy, focusing on deepening collaborations with global record labels and enhancing its own IP matrix, while innovating product features and services to expand multi-terminal scenarios [5] - Content payment, content privileges, and functional privileges are identified as key growth drivers, with the potential for increased commercial advantages through deeper value extraction from the music entertainment industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Music (01698) is expected to see significant growth in new business in 2025, with projected Non-IFRS net profits of 9.63 billion and 10.75 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and Non-IFRS net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [2] - The subscription music business shows resilience, with Q3 2025 subscription revenue increasing by 17.2% to 4.49 billion yuan, and the number of paying users rising by 1.3 million to 12.6 million [2] - Non-subscription revenue grew significantly by 50.3% to 2.48 billion yuan in Q3 2025, driven by rapid growth in concert and artist economy revenues [2] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth Potential - The company is focusing on a dual-wing strategy to explore the full value of the industry chain, enhancing cooperation with global record companies and building its own IP matrix [3] - The company aims to innovate product features and services to expand multi-terminal scenarios, with content payment and privileges forming important growth drivers [3] - The investment in new business may impact short-term gross margins, but the company maintains a positive outlook for long-term operational leverage [2]

Summary of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) 3Q25 Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - **Market Cap**: $32.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $27.2 billion - **Current Price**: $20.75 - **12-Month Price Target**: $25.20 (Upside: 21.4%) [1][2] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Results**: TME reported a small beat on revenue and profit, but shares declined by approximately 8-9% during trading [2] - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 32,697.5 million (up from Rmb 32,309.7 million) [4] - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 36,937.3 million (up from Rmb 36,367.8 million) [4] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb 9,645.0 million (up from Rmb 9,645.0 million) [4] - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb 10,747.4 million (down from Rmb 11,000 million) [4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Concerns**: - Increased competition among music streaming platforms (e.g., Soda Music) may impact TME's subscriber growth and pricing strategy [2] - Volatility in the live performance business could weigh on group margin expansion in 2026 [2] - **Growth Narrative**: Despite concerns, TME's growth narrative remains intact due to its unique content and value-added services for over 500 million monthly active users (MAUs) [2] - **Revenue Diversification**: TME is expected to achieve solid Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth through SVIP penetration and additional service offerings, alongside expansion into live entertainment and fan economy businesses [2] Future Projections - **2026E Expectations**: - Group revenue growth of 16%+ [3] - Online music revenue growth of 17% year-over-year [17] - Gross Profit (GP) of Rmb 16.2 billion with a Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 43.9% [17] - Non-GAAP Net Profit (NP) of Rmb 10.7 billion with a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 29.1% [17] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Potential derailment from the beat-and-raise cycle [18] - Higher-than-expected content pricing from label companies [18] - Inability to maintain market dominance amid increasing competition [18] - Slower-than-expected growth in non-subscription online music services [18] - Decline in social entertainment business [18] Additional Insights - **ARPU Forecast**: Expected to reach Rmb 19.4 for SVIP and Rmb 10.7 for basic members by 2025E [28] - **Subscriber Growth**: Anticipated growth in quarterly net additions of music subscribers, albeit at a slower pace [30] - **SVIP Membership**: Expected to reach 25.9 million by 2027E, with penetration increasing from 13% to 19% of total paying members [32] Conclusion - TME is positioned to leverage its unique offerings and user base to drive future growth, despite facing competitive pressures and market volatility. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a revised price target reflecting its growth potential and market leadership in the music streaming industry [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported steady growth in its financial performance for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, with total revenue reaching 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and adjusted net profit of 2.48 billion yuan, up 27.7% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the third quarter was 8.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% year-on-year growth [1] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 2.48 billion yuan, representing a 27.7% increase compared to the previous year [1] Online Music Business - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2% year-on-year to 6.97 billion yuan [1] - Average revenue per paying user increased from 10.8 yuan in the same quarter of 2024 to 11.9 yuan [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company attributes its robust growth to the deepening of its "content and platform" strategy [1] - Tencent Music has strengthened collaborations with global record companies and artists, hosting large-scale domestic and international tours, and expanding its own performance IP matrix [1] - Continuous innovation in product features and services aims to meet diverse user needs and create personalized music experiences [1] Future Outlook - Tencent Music plans to seize emerging opportunities and expand its music service offerings while collaborating with industry partners to promote healthy industry development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's financial performance for Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in non-subscription services and steady growth in subscription services [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Tencent Music reached RMB 84.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 21.5 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 24.1 billion, reflecting a 32.6% year-on-year growth [1] - Diluted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) were RMB 1.38 [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the total balance of cash, cash equivalents, time deposits, and short-term investments was RMB 360.8 billion [1] Group 2: Strategic Insights - Huatai Securities highlighted that Tencent Music's revenue and profit surpassed consensus expectations, primarily due to robust growth in non-subscription business [2] - The company continues to expand the boundaries of music services under its "one body, two wings" strategy, integrating content and platform [2] - The firm is recognized for its strong operational capabilities in industry chain integration and has a long-term stable monetization ability within a diverse content ecosystem [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1% to 5,872.88 points [1] - Tencent Music led the decline among constituent stocks, falling over 10% [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported Q3 2025 financial results, showing total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit of 2.21 billion yuan, with profit attributable to equity holders at 2.15 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan, while social entertainment and other services revenue decreased by 2.7% to 1.49 billion yuan [2] User Metrics - The number of paying users for online music services reached 125.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and the ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) was 11.9 yuan, up 10.2% [3] Competitive Landscape - The report marks the first full financial quarter for Tencent Music following the acquisition of Ximalaya. However, the impact of Ximalaya on user subscriptions and long audio services has yet to be reflected in the data. Monthly active users for online music services decreased to 551 million year-on-year [4] Market Competition - ByteDance's music products are intensifying competition in the domestic online music market. Despite Tencent's music apps leading in monthly active users, ByteDance's products are showing significant growth rates, with some reaching over 90% year-on-year [5] Strategic Responses - Tencent Music's executives acknowledged the competitive pressure, emphasizing that music is a traditional business where library advantages and user asset accumulation remain core strengths. The company is expanding its offerings with services like Starlight Card and Bubble, which are not available from competitors [5] Growth Drivers - Beyond traditional music content subscriptions, Tencent Music is focusing on content derivatives and user rights operations as growth drivers. The company plans to increase investments in live performances and proprietary events to differentiate itself in the market [6] Cost Trends - Tencent Music's operating costs have returned to positive growth, with costs reported at 4.11 billion yuan, 4.69 billion yuan, and 4.78 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.9%, 13.1%, and 18.8% respectively [6]

Group 1 - "AI talent" Luo Fuli announced her joining Xiaomi on November 12, stating her commitment to AGI research [3][4] - Luo Fuli previously worked at Alibaba's DAMO Academy and DeepSeek, where she developed multilingual pre-training models and participated in deep learning projects [4] - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun reportedly offered a salary of tens of millions to recruit Luo Fuli for leading AI large model research [4] Group 2 - Xiaomi reported a total payment amount exceeding 29 billion yuan during the Double 11 shopping festival, expressing gratitude for customer support [10] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge and international brand image through the issuance of H-shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [21] Group 3 - Tencent Music's third-quarter revenue reached 8.46 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with online music service revenue growing by 27.2% [28] - Xinhua Insurance reported a cumulative insurance premium income of 181.973 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [30] Group 4 - Ningde Times exported 120 GWh of lithium batteries in the first three quarters, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [15] - The company announced the mass production of its fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery, achieving breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [15][16]

Core Insights - The essence of consumption in China is shifting from functional satisfaction to the pursuit of meaning, leading to the rise of the "emotional economy" [1] - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is a successful case benefiting from this emotional consumption trend, leveraging fan economy to establish a clear commercialization path [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [2] - The net profit for Q3 reached 2.48 billion yuan, up 27.7% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 24.26 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase, with net profit soaring to 9.07 billion yuan, an 80% rise from 5.03 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Online music service revenue for Q3 was 6.97 billion yuan, growing 27.2% and accounting for 82.3% of total revenue [2] User Growth and Monetization - The number of paid users increased to 12.57 million, a growth of 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) rose from 10.8 yuan to 11.9 yuan, reflecting a 10.2% increase [4] Competitive Positioning - TME's gross margin stood at 43.5%, outperforming Spotify by 12 percentage points, while its operating margin was 32%, compared to Spotify's 13.6% [6] - TME's strategic transformation has successfully linked music consumption with fan economy, enhancing user engagement and monetization [6] Strategic Initiatives - TME's acquisition of nearly 10% stake in SM Entertainment and its purchase of Ximalaya are aimed at expanding audio content and refining fan economy operations [7] - The company is enhancing user retention and payment rates through a free ad-supported model for users with low willingness to pay [7] Competitive Landscape - Despite TME's leading position, competitors like NetEase Cloud Music and ByteDance's Soda Music are emerging threats [8] - NetEase Cloud Music has a unique UGC community and independent musician ecosystem, while Soda Music has rapidly increased its user base, reaching 18 million daily active users by mid-2024 [10][11] - The competition is evolving from user growth to value extraction, with a focus on ecosystem integration and content expansion [11] Future Outlook - The online music industry is established but requires continuous evolution beyond being a simple music player [12] - Future winners will be those who can effectively manage technology, content, and user engagement [12]

Market Landscape Evolution - The Chinese online music streaming market has shifted from a "duopoly" dominated by Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music to a "tripartite" competition with the entry of ByteDance's Soda Music [2][3] - Tencent Music held a market share of 76.1% in 2016-2017, while NetEase Cloud Music had about 15.6%. This dominance continued until the emergence of Soda Music [2][3] - As of Q1 2024, Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music maintained a combined market share of over 90%, with Tencent Music's monthly active users (MAU) at approximately 202 million and NetEase Cloud Music at around 185 million [2][3] Business Model Comparison - The overall payment rate for online music in China has increased from less than 5% five years ago to about 15% by the end of 2023, indicating a growing trend in user willingness to pay [5] - Tencent Music reported a decline in monthly active users to 551 million, down 4.3% year-on-year, but an increase in paid users to 12.57 million, reflecting a 5.6% growth [6][7] - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a paid user conversion rate of 27% [7][9] Platform Strategies - Tencent Music leverages its extensive entertainment ecosystem, focusing on IP creation and social engagement, while NetEase Cloud Music emphasizes community and original content [13][14] - Soda Music employs an algorithm-driven model similar to Spotify, focusing on user acquisition through free offerings and a seamless integration with Douyin (TikTok) for content discovery [15][26] Copyright Disputes - The end of the exclusive copyright era in 2021 allowed for a more open competition among platforms, reducing the need for high-cost exclusive agreements [20][21] - The transition to a post-exclusive era has led to a more level playing field, with platforms focusing on user experience and operational efficiency rather than solely on acquiring exclusive rights [25][22] Future Outlook - The market may stabilize into a "three-way competition" with Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Soda Music each solidifying their respective niches [33] - The potential for a "fourth player" to emerge in the market appears low, given the historical challenges faced by new entrants and the dominance of existing players [34]