Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both UBS and market expectations by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 32.6% year-on-year to 2.41 billion yuan, also surpassing UBS and market forecasts by 4% and 3.8% respectively [1] - The management expects continued strong growth in subscription services and new revenue sources driven by SVIP expansion, diversified content, and enhanced user engagement [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit margin: 28.4%, exceeding expectations by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] Market Reaction and Outlook - UBS anticipates a positive reaction from investors to Tencent Music's better-than-expected performance [1] - Investors are awaiting further details on ARPPU trends, SVIP adoption rates, profit margin outlook, and new business strategies [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Music's US stock with a target price of $30 [1]

该机构预计腾讯在中国互联网超大盘股中的利润前景最为强劲，游戏+广告业务存在上行空间，并可能 将业务重点扩展到外部AI云业务；但部分投资者担忧该公司是否会进入下一阶段的AI+推理成本投资 （这可能会抑制利润率改善，与腾讯上一轮短视频投资周期相似）。阿里巴巴云业务/资本支出前景潜 在利好（或将类似于谷歌和亚马逊业绩发布后强劲的股价表现）以及客户管理收入稳健增长；但即时零 售业务导致集团利润大幅下滑，且该业务投资将持续到12月份所在季度。 高盛在近期研报中指出，展望即将发布的中国互联网三季度业绩（腾讯/京东将于本周发布，阿里巴巴/ 美团/拼多多将于本月晚些时候发布），预计超大盘股业绩喜忧参半。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 值得一提的是，高盛认为，相较于全球同业/公司每股盈利增长前景而言，腾讯和阿里巴巴的估值依然 不高，并继续强调腾讯是主要的AI应用概念股，AI赋能旗下各业务线；阿里巴巴则拥有独特的全栈AI 能力、AI云+日常消费场景。 11月13日午后，港股三大指数悉数下跌，恒生科技指数跌超0.5%。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模最大 的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数小幅下跌，持仓股中，比亚迪股份等少数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock price experienced a significant drop of nearly 13%, reaching a low of 73.95 HKD, despite reporting strong third-quarter earnings with a year-on-year profit increase of 36.01% [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending September, Tencent Music reported a shareholder profit of 2.153 billion HKD, which is a 36.01% increase year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share were reported at 0.7 HKD [1] - Under non-IFRS standards, the net profit attributable to equity holders was 2.405 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.58% [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Tencent Music's stock saw a trading volume exceeding 300 million HKD [1] - Bank of America noted that the earnings were generally in line with expectations but highlighted the absence of disclosed SVIP numbers, which were 15 million in the previous quarter [1] - Concerns regarding competition from ByteDance have increased among investors, potentially impacting short-term market sentiment [1] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America maintains a "Neutral" rating for Tencent Music, with a target price of 98.13 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 25 USD for the US stock [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive momentum with the ChiNext index rising by 2.68% at midday, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks rising [6] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain experienced a significant surge, with companies like CATL rising over 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors also performed well, while oil and gas stocks, along with bank stocks, saw a pullback [4] - The real estate sector showed volatility with stocks like China Wuyi hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Huaxia Happiness and Sanxiang Impression also performing well [7] Key Stocks - Notable stock performances included: - Dazhen Lishen up by 25.42% at 37.00 yuan - Shangneng Electric up by 18.82% at 44.22 yuan - Taihe Technology up by 16.74% at 40.96 yuan - Wanrun New Energy up by 14.15% at 101.39 yuan [8] Energy Sector Developments - The energy storage concept stocks continued to strengthen, with companies like Longzhou Co., Weike Technology, and Cangzhou Mingzhu seeing significant gains [7] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integration of new energy, emphasizing the development of new hydropower and wind-solar integrated bases [7] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold sector showed strength with companies like Xin'an Co. and Shengtun Mining hitting the daily limit, while other gold-related stocks also performed well [10] International Market Influence - The main contract for polysilicon futures rose by 3% to 53,835 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend in the materials sector [11] - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.82% [18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.4%, indicating ongoing liquidity management [19] - The RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0865, depreciating by 32 basis points from the previous day [20]

Core Insights - Citigroup's research report indicates that Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both Citigroup's and market expectations by 3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue grew by 27.2% year-on-year to 6.97 billion yuan, surpassing Citigroup's expectations by 4%, driven by robust growth in music subscription revenue, as well as increases in offline performances, advertising services, and artist merchandise [1] - Subscription revenue rose by 17.2% year-on-year to 4.5 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 53% of total revenue [1] - Social entertainment revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, falling short of Citigroup's expectations by 1% [1] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted net profit for the period was 2.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28%, exceeding Citigroup's and market expectations by 8% and 7% respectively, attributed to better-than-expected revenue and improved gross margins, although partially offset by increased operating expenses [1] Investment Rating - Citigroup has set a target price of $29 for Tencent Music's U.S. shares and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong stocks rising, particularly in healthcare, conglomerates, and real estate, while consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lagged behind [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.286 billion, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC experienced the most significant net sales [3] - The report anticipates a trend of style switching in the Chinese stock market, with undervalued sectors like chemicals, consumer goods, and banks leading the gains, expected to continue at least until mid-December when policy stimulus clarity increases [3] Market Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,923, up 0.85% for the day and 34.21% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,934, with a slight increase of 0.16% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 32.81% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,000, down 0.07% for the day but up 19.34% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,396, up 1.20% for the day and 40.58% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 19,533, with a significant increase of 3.34% for the day and 30.98% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,428, up 1.17% for the day and 7.75% year-to-date [2] Company Analysis - Tencent Music reported a 21% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 8.46 billion for Q3 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit increasing by 33% to RMB 2.41 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% respectively [4] - The report projects a slowdown in revenue growth to 12% year-on-year for Q4 2025, primarily due to normalization of offline performance revenue [4] - The target price for Tencent Music has been adjusted from USD 29.5 to USD 28.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Tencent Music's Q3 performance largely meets expectations, with adjusted net profit increasing by 33% year-on-year to 2.41 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 4% due to strong revenue growth and reduced tax expenses [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q3 reached 2.41 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year [1] - The performance surpassed market expectations by 4% [1] Market Position and Competition - Tencent Music is recognized as the leader in China's music streaming market [1] - There is growing investor concern regarding competition from ByteDance, which may impact short-term market sentiment [1] Valuation and Ratings - Current valuation of Tencent Music is considered to be at a reasonable level [1] - The firm maintains a "Neutral" rating with a target price of 98.13 HKD for Hong Kong stocks and 25 USD for U.S. stocks [1] Additional Notes - The recent earnings report did not disclose the number of SVIP users, which was 15 million in the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Music (01698) is expected to see significant growth in new business in 2025, with projected Non-IFRS net profits of 9.63 billion yuan and 10.75 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and Non-IFRS net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6%, slightly exceeding CICC's expectations [2] - The company’s online music subscription revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 17.2% to 4.49 billion yuan, with a net increase of 1.3 million paying users, reaching a total of 126 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The subscription business shows profitability resilience, while non-subscription business demonstrates growth potential, with non-subscription revenue in Q3 2025 increasing by 50.3% to 2.48 billion yuan, driven by concert and artist economy revenues [3] - The company expects a continued increase in paid users and ARPPU, projecting a rise to 12.1 yuan/month in Q4 2025 [3] Group 3: Margin and Investment - Q3 2025 gross margin was 43.5%, with stable sales expenses and a 5.3% year-on-year increase in management expenses; the company is investing in offline performances and IP economy, which may impact short-term margins but is expected to support long-term growth [4] - The fluctuation in gross margin is attributed to the rising proportion of concert-related revenues, with expectations for a rebound in Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Strategic Direction - The company is committed to a dual-wing strategy, focusing on deepening collaborations with global record labels and enhancing its own IP matrix, while innovating product features and services to expand multi-terminal scenarios [5] - Content payment, content privileges, and functional privileges are identified as key growth drivers, with the potential for increased commercial advantages through deeper value extraction from the music entertainment industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Music (01698) is expected to see significant growth in new business in 2025, with projected Non-IFRS net profits of 9.63 billion and 10.75 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and Non-IFRS net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [2] - The subscription music business shows resilience, with Q3 2025 subscription revenue increasing by 17.2% to 4.49 billion yuan, and the number of paying users rising by 1.3 million to 12.6 million [2] - Non-subscription revenue grew significantly by 50.3% to 2.48 billion yuan in Q3 2025, driven by rapid growth in concert and artist economy revenues [2] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth Potential - The company is focusing on a dual-wing strategy to explore the full value of the industry chain, enhancing cooperation with global record companies and building its own IP matrix [3] - The company aims to innovate product features and services to expand multi-terminal scenarios, with content payment and privileges forming important growth drivers [3] - The investment in new business may impact short-term gross margins, but the company maintains a positive outlook for long-term operational leverage [2]

Summary of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) 3Q25 Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - **Market Cap**: $32.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $27.2 billion - **Current Price**: $20.75 - **12-Month Price Target**: $25.20 (Upside: 21.4%) [1][2] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Results**: TME reported a small beat on revenue and profit, but shares declined by approximately 8-9% during trading [2] - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 32,697.5 million (up from Rmb 32,309.7 million) [4] - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 36,937.3 million (up from Rmb 36,367.8 million) [4] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb 9,645.0 million (up from Rmb 9,645.0 million) [4] - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb 10,747.4 million (down from Rmb 11,000 million) [4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Concerns**: - Increased competition among music streaming platforms (e.g., Soda Music) may impact TME's subscriber growth and pricing strategy [2] - Volatility in the live performance business could weigh on group margin expansion in 2026 [2] - **Growth Narrative**: Despite concerns, TME's growth narrative remains intact due to its unique content and value-added services for over 500 million monthly active users (MAUs) [2] - **Revenue Diversification**: TME is expected to achieve solid Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth through SVIP penetration and additional service offerings, alongside expansion into live entertainment and fan economy businesses [2] Future Projections - **2026E Expectations**: - Group revenue growth of 16%+ [3] - Online music revenue growth of 17% year-over-year [17] - Gross Profit (GP) of Rmb 16.2 billion with a Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 43.9% [17] - Non-GAAP Net Profit (NP) of Rmb 10.7 billion with a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 29.1% [17] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Potential derailment from the beat-and-raise cycle [18] - Higher-than-expected content pricing from label companies [18] - Inability to maintain market dominance amid increasing competition [18] - Slower-than-expected growth in non-subscription online music services [18] - Decline in social entertainment business [18] Additional Insights - **ARPU Forecast**: Expected to reach Rmb 19.4 for SVIP and Rmb 10.7 for basic members by 2025E [28] - **Subscriber Growth**: Anticipated growth in quarterly net additions of music subscribers, albeit at a slower pace [30] - **SVIP Membership**: Expected to reach 25.9 million by 2027E, with penetration increasing from 13% to 19% of total paying members [32] Conclusion - TME is positioned to leverage its unique offerings and user base to drive future growth, despite facing competitive pressures and market volatility. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a revised price target reflecting its growth potential and market leadership in the music streaming industry [3][4]