[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 韩杨 科技行业分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110525060002 hanyang@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152681 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.5 0 0.5 1 21-Oct 1-Jan 14-Mar 25-May 5-Aug 16-Oct 电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 电子行业周报：英伟达将入股英特尔， OpenAI 着手开发端侧硬件 电子行业周报：英伟达发布 Rubin CPX，甲骨文 AI 订单大幅增长 电子行业周报：博通 FY2025Q3 收入 创新高，上调 2026 年 AI 收入 台积电发布 2025Q3 业绩，收入毛利率均超指引。台积电 2025Q3 实 现营收 331 亿美元，超出上一个季度指引区间（318 亿-330 亿美元）， 同比+40.8%，环比+10.1%。2025Q3 公司实现毛利率 59.5%，超出上一 季度指引区间（55.5%-57.5%），同比+1.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][10][36] Core Views - The demand for AI computing power and storage is experiencing significant growth, with TSMC's revenue exceeding expectations [1] - AI applications are driving the demand for Nearline SSDs, leading to a continuous rise in storage prices [2] - TSMC reported a revenue of $33.1 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% [3] - The demand for ASICs remains strong, with domestic ASIC service providers expected to benefit from increasing orders [4] - Apple's AI initiatives are expanding into the Chinese market, with new products expected to launch in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the electronic sector dropped by 7.14% over the past week [1][11] - The semiconductor sector showed resilience with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Information Technology Index increasing by 5.78% and 0.27%, respectively [11] Company Performance - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue was $33.1 billion, surpassing the guidance range of $31.8 to $33 billion, with AI demand significantly stronger than previously anticipated [3] - The report highlights several companies in the storage sector, including Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Zhaoyi Innovation, as potential beneficiaries of the rising storage prices [2] Industry Trends - The report notes a continuous upward trend in the storage cycle, with Flash Wafer prices increasing by over 10% [2] - The ASIC market is seeing increased collaboration between domestic manufacturers and cloud service providers, driven by strong demand [4] - Apple's expansion into AI in China is expected to leverage its large hardware user base, with new AI-integrated products set to launch [5] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the domestic semiconductor and storage supply chains, including SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and Langqi Technology [3][4] - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in the Apple supply chain, such as Luxshare Precision and GoerTek, due to their potential growth from Apple's AI initiatives [5][7]

Core Insights - The U.S. has a strong position in the global chip market, holding over 50% of the market share, but its domestic manufacturing capacity is only about 8-10% [1][3] - The U.S. has been increasingly focused on developing its domestic chip manufacturing capabilities due to the growing importance of chip technology [3][5] - Significant investments have been made to attract global chip companies to establish manufacturing facilities in the U.S., including a $53 billion subsidy plan initiated during Biden's administration [5][7] Group 1 - The U.S. relies heavily on foreign foundries for chip production, with major companies like Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD outsourcing to TSMC, Samsung, and others [1][3] - The Biden administration's efforts to boost domestic chip manufacturing include a $53 billion subsidy plan aimed at attracting global chip manufacturers [5] - Under Trump's administration, TSMC committed to investing $165 billion in U.S. facilities to produce advanced chips, including 2nm and 3nm technologies [5][7] Group 2 - TSMC's U.S. factory has begun producing 4nm A-series chips for Apple, marking a significant achievement for the Biden administration [7] - NVIDIA's Blackwell chip has also started production in the U.S., showcasing the progress in domestic chip manufacturing [7][9] - Despite these advancements, analysts suggest that U.S. chip manufacturing may struggle to scale due to cost competitiveness, limiting production to high-margin products while low-end chips remain dominated by Chinese manufacturers [9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月21日 业绩期内市场风险偏好有所降低，AI 推动下的算力+存力依然共振高增。过 去一周上证下跌 1.47%，电子下跌 7.14%，子行业中光学光电子下跌 6.23%， 消费电子下跌 9.10%。同期恒生科技下跌 7.98%，费城半导体、台湾资讯科 技上涨 5.78%、0.27%。临近 3Q25 财报季，由于前期投资者对于 AI 主线以 及上涨的共识度太高、诸多龙头公司的盈利预测也经历了大幅上修，叠 加中美关税博弈的反复，业绩验证期内市场风险偏好回落、科技板块容 易出现较大的波动。就已经披露的业绩情况及行业基本面跟踪，如台积 电在法说会上判断，AI 需求持续强劲，超过此前预期，非 AI 市场正在 温和复苏；此外，存储芯片、部分被动件、高阶 CCL 等环节已呈现出供 不应求、价格上涨的趋势。我们认为，对于 AI 需求的景气拉动范围、 幅度，以及国产算力+存力的自主可控能力及需求持续性依然存在预期 差，当前时点继续推荐自主可控（代工+设备）、本土算力+存力产业链。 AI 应用推动 Nearline SSD 需求，存储价格持续上扬。AI 推理应用推升实 时存取、高速处理海量数据的需求 ...

Group 1 - The direct issuance of maternity allowances to individuals has been implemented in 25 provinces in China, enhancing women's rights and social security [2] - China Galaxy Securities indicates a short-term market style shift due to external trade uncertainties and previous sector gains, suggesting a cautious investment sentiment [3] - L'Oréal is reportedly planning to acquire Kering's beauty division for approximately 40 billion USD, indicating a trend of mergers and acquisitions in the beauty sector [4] Group 2 - Carlyle Group's CEO expresses concerns about recent fluctuations in the credit market but notes that the overall economic situation remains resilient [5] - The Louvre Museum in Paris has experienced a robbery, highlighting security vulnerabilities in museums and the increasing targeting by professional smuggling groups [6] - In September, China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [7] Group 3 - Lyon has raised TSMC's target price to 2000 NTD, maintaining a strong buy rating based on improved profit margins and sustained demand for AI computing [8] - The value added of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry in China increased by 29.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by policies promoting domestic demand [9] - Ant Group's subsidiary in Hainan has increased its registered capital from 10 million to 3.5 billion RMB, indicating significant growth and investment in technology services [10] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 601.3 billion RMB in loans in the first three quarters, with a notable decrease compared to the previous year [11] - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the service sector showing the highest growth rate [12] - CITIC Securities highlights a three-year plan to double electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure development in the EV sector [13]

Market Performance Summary - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) rose over 12% as the company continues to advance its overseas strategy, with new contract signings increasing by over 70% in the first half of the year [1] - China Hongqiao Group (00931) fell over 13% after a significant 55% surge the previous day, with ongoing discussions regarding potential investments [1] - BYD Electronic (00285) increased over 4% as the company is set to supply power components for NVIDIA's new 800VDC AI server architecture [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) rose over 6% as its HSD technology was first adopted by the ET5 model, with multiple automakers already confirming orders [1] - Bilibili-W (09626) increased over 10% due to strong performance of new games, indicating a gradual release of its commercial value [1] - CRRC Corporation (01766) rose nearly 4% ahead of its third-quarter earnings report, with expectations for continued growth in new train procurement and maintenance [1] - Genscript Biotech (01952) rose over 5% as its EVM14 treatment for squamous cell carcinoma addresses critical clinical needs, leading in clinical development progress [1] - Bosideng (03998) increased nearly 6% following the appointment of renowned British designer Kim Jones as the creative director for its new AREAL high-end urban line [1] - Derin Holdings (01709) fell over 11% after announcing a discounted placement of shares to raise funds for expanding Bitcoin mining operations [1] US Market Highlights - TSMC (TSM.US) rose 0.89% as the first NVIDIA Blackwell wafers were recently produced in the US [3] - Pony.ai (PONY.US) increased 1.76% after partnering with Stellantis for autonomous vehicle solutions [3] - WeRide (WRD.US) rose 2.67% after successfully passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, positioning itself to become the first "Robotaxi" stock in Hong Kong [3] - Zeekr (ZK.US) increased 4.48% as pre-sales for the refreshed Zeekr 7X officially began, offering significant pre-sale benefits [3] - iQIYI (IQ.US) rose 8.37% as Morgan Stanley upgraded its target price, citing the long-term growth potential of the domestic IP merchandise market [3] - Taoping (TAOP.US) increased 4.27% after announcing a non-binding letter of intent to acquire 100% of Alphalion Holding Limited [3] - Micron Technology (MU.US) rose 2.17% as several major firms raised their target prices for the company [4] - U.S. Antimony Corporation (UAMY.US) surged 20.02% following its proposal to acquire Larvotto Resources to enhance its critical mineral asset portfolio [4] - Apple (AAPL.US) rose 3.94% as a report indicated strong early sales of the iPhone 17 series in China and the U.S. [4] - Moderna (MRNA.US) increased 4.73% after presenting positive data on its mRNA vaccine pipeline at the IDWeek 2025 conference [4]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between TSMC and NVIDIA highlights the importance of semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., but it raises concerns about Taiwan's strategic position in the global semiconductor supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Global Position - TSMC's ability to manufacture AI chips in the U.S. showcases its technological strength and global competitiveness, but this does not necessarily translate to a stronger Taiwan without a comprehensive strategy [3][4]. - As TSMC's core manufacturing and investments shift to the U.S., Japan, and Europe, Taiwan's dominant position in the semiconductor industry is gradually being diluted [3][4]. - The statement by NVIDIA's CEO that "the most important chips will be made in America" suggests that the U.S. may no longer rely on Taiwan for critical production lines, reflecting a significant geopolitical shift [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications for Taiwan - The establishment of TSMC's factory in Phoenix will create high-paying jobs and stimulate the local supply chain in the U.S., but these benefits will not extend to Taiwan [4][6]. - The transfer of technology, talent development, and key suppliers will likely move away from Taiwan, indicating a trend of "de-Taiwanization" despite the gradual nature of this process [4][6]. - While Taiwanese investors can still benefit from TSMC's success in the financial markets, the glory of TSMC's achievements will be shared globally, leading to a relative decline in Taiwan's strategic position [6].

数字行业对环境的影响日益受到关注，而全球化社会中数字产品和服务的增加则加剧了这种影响。数字行业的物质性通常通过采矿活动对环境的影响来体 现，以此表明数字化并不意味着非物质化。尽管采矿业至关重要，但这种论述通常局限于少数几种已成为采掘业象征的矿物（例如钴、锂）。 尽管不可否认，如果没有采矿业的生产，ICT产品和服务就不会存在，但其矿产需求乍一看似乎有限。为了更全面地了解数字行业的物质性，需要从补充 视角进一步探索生产链。作为数字行业的核心，半导体制造业因其材料流动和环境影响而受到越来越多的关注。然而，尽管越来越多的证据表明环境影响 和污染，但仍然没有得到适当的审查。该行业的物质性方面一直被忽视，主要是因为其供应链极其难以识别和分析。这主要是由于其复杂性和广度，加上 上游（矿商、精炼商等）和科技公司的不透明性。 然而，由于所有ICT产品和服务基本上都依赖于这些被称为微芯片的硬件组件，数字行业的物质性深深植根于半导体行业的物质性，如图1所示。 简介 近年来，人们越来越关注数字领域对环境的影响，包括基础设施（如数据中心、通信网络）、产品（如智能手机）和服务（如视频点播流媒体）。近期， 人工智能和边缘人工智能在诸多领域 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market indices opened high and continued to rise, with sectors like consumer electronics, optical modules CPO, memory, and PCB circuit boards showing active performance [1] - The 5G communication ETF (515050) rose over 4.4%, leading the market, with key holdings such as Lixun Precision rising nearly 9% and other companies like Yuanjie Technology and Xinjie Xuchuang also experiencing gains [1] - The AI computing sector has rebounded for two consecutive days, indicating strong market resilience, with optimistic capital expenditure outlooks from leading cloud vendors and high demand across the AI computing industry chain [1] Group 2 - The 5G communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G communication theme index and has a latest scale exceeding 8 billion, focusing on companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Huawei [2] - The index has a high exposure to TMT, technology leaders, and 5G concepts, with rapid valuation recovery and strong earnings growth expectations [2] - The AI-focused ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI index and has a significant weight in optical modules CPO, covering domestic software and AI application companies, with a low fee rate of 0.20% [2]

"美国正在进一步加强其国内半导体供应链。"《日经亚洲评论》《亚洲商业日报》等日韩媒体也对首枚 英伟达与台积电合造的芯片晶圆予以关注，并报道说，美国此前通过提供大量补贴吸引了台积电等芯片 工厂落户美国。在美国前总统拜登执政时期，台积电以650亿美元的投资以及66亿美元的补助金，开始 在亚利桑那州建设工厂。除了台积电外，自2022年《芯片和科学法》实施以来，美国已向芯片制造商发 放数十亿美元的补贴与资助，但不少企业仍抱怨：他们的客户不愿为"美国制造"支付更高成本，而倾向 于选择海外更具性价比的方案。 值得关注的是，英伟达与台积电合作推出首枚"美国制造"芯片晶圆之际，正值美国政府计划推出芯片新 规。据《华尔街日报》上个月报道，美国政府正酝酿一项新规，要求芯片制造商在美国本土生产的半导 体数量，必须与其客户从海外进口的芯片数量"对等"（即1:1比例），未能实现此比例的企业，将面临 大约100%的关税。这一政策意在迫使芯片企业将生产重心回流美国，减少对美国国外供应链的依赖。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克近日已向多家芯片企业高管提出该构想，认为这可能是维护"美国经济安 全"的必要措施。不过，业内人士警告该政策实施面临挑战 ...