今日（26/1/22）早盘半导体材料设备板块延续调整态势，但市场关注度仍旧高涨。本轮行情主要受益 于AI基础设施建设对高端半导体的需求的快速增长，芯片龙头公司纷纷开启涨价、扩张热潮，带动上 游半导体设备材料的订单需求增加，行业整体景气度有望向好。（数据来源：Wind） 据报道，因人工智能需求爆发，台积电先进3纳米制程面临罕见的生产瓶颈，产能已全数被预订至2027 年；同时摩根士丹利预计2026年第一季度DDR4价格涨幅或达50%，扩产涨价热潮带动的"存储芯片超级 周期"或正在延续。（信息来源：《台积电3纳米产能满载至2027年》-2026/1/21-科创板日报；《大摩： 一季度DDR4价格涨幅或达五成 NOR Flash将涨20%-30%》-2026/1/19-科创板日报；机构观点及预测数 据仅供参考，不代表实际情况，不作为基金业绩表现的保证或承诺，请投资者关注相关投资风险。） 费率备注：在申购或赎回ETF基金份额时，申购赎回代理券商可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金，其中 包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。以上摘自产品法律文件。二级市场买卖佣金由所在券商 收取标准为准，免收印花税。A类份额的申购费率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's growth stagnation may allow competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom to surpass it in market value over the next five years [1][2]. Group 1: Apple’s Current Position - Apple is currently valued at $3.6 trillion but is experiencing slower revenue growth at 10% year-over-year, relying on past performance rather than innovation [4]. - The company has not launched any significant new products recently, which raises concerns about its ability to maintain market share against more innovative competitors [4]. Group 2: Competitors' Potential - Microsoft, with a market cap of $3.4 trillion, and Amazon, valued at $2.5 trillion, are positioned to potentially surpass Apple due to their faster growth rates [7]. - Microsoft has benefited from the generative AI trend through its Azure cloud service, achieving mid- to high-double-digit EPS growth, which could propel it past Apple [8]. - Amazon's growth is driven by higher-margin divisions, and despite a slowdown in the third quarter, its operating income is expected to grow rapidly, allowing it to surpass Apple within five years [11]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Growth - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) aims for a 25% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029, which could triple its revenue and potentially surpass Apple [13]. - Broadcom is also well-positioned with its custom AI accelerator chips, expecting 100% year-over-year growth for these products, and could surpass Apple if it matches the projected growth in global data center capital expenditures [15][16].

当2025年的日历翻过第一页，全球金融市场的剧烈动荡再次提醒投资者：身处一个"不确定性"成为主旋 律的时代，任何单一市场的配置都可能在暴风雨中显得脆弱不堪。 站在当下时点，全球资产配置的范式正在发生深刻重构。随着美国关税政策带来的持续冲击以及"弱美 元"共识的形成，资金的流向开始从单一的美元资产向全球多元化资产扩散。 该背景下，具备"高增长、低相关性、低估值"三重属性的亚太资产，正逐渐成为中国投资者穿越宏观周 期的关键。 弱美元周期下的范式转移，亚太资产何以成为避风港? 2025年上半年，全球大类资产运行的核心矛盾集中在关税政策的不确定性上。4月初，超预期的关税冲 击令全球资产一度进入"避险模式"，美股持续下行，VIX恐慌指数剧震，市场情绪变得极其敏感。 尽管后续谈判带来阶段性缓和，但实际有效关税税率仍显著高于历史常态水平，这种主观性极强的政策 演绎已成为悬在全球资产头上的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 在关税阴影下，美元资产在2025年4月迎来了集体"滑铁卢"。美元指数加速跌破100关口，10年期美债收 益率飙升。这种股债汇三杀的局面，标志着市场正从此前的"唯美元论"转向新范式：欧元、日元、英镑 及人民币等非美货币的 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia has officially surpassed Apple to become TSMC's largest customer, contributing approximately 13% to TSMC's total revenue [1][3] - The shift in customer dynamics is driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, while the growth in consumer electronics has slowed down, leading to a significant change in the semiconductor industry's core drivers [3] - TSMC's revenue structure reflects this industry shift, with a substantial increase in revenue from high-performance computing, while smartphone business revenue continues to decline [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's demand for AI GPUs has led to a situation where more than half of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is consumed by Nvidia [3] - Apple, despite still holding over half of TSMC's initial capacity for 2nm chips, has lost its previous priority in capacity allocation and is now diversifying its supply chain to mitigate risks [3] - Huang Renxun's early ambition to become TSMC's largest customer has now been realized, marking a significant milestone in the relationship between Nvidia and TSMC [3]

黄仁勋曾断言："未来十年，算力的天花板将由光传输效率决定。"这句话不仅揭示了光互连技术在未来算力竞赛中的核心 地位，也点燃了一个曾经小众的半导体材料——磷化铟（InP）的市场热情。 当前，随着AI大模型训练进入万卡集群时代，数据中心内部数据传输需求呈指数级增长，全球AI基础设施支出预计2026年 突破万亿美元，推动数据中心光模块向800G/1.6T及以上速率加速迭代。 在这股浪潮中，磷化铟材料凭借其独特性能成为光通信革命的核心支撑。全球头部磷化铟供应商订单已排满至2026年， 2025年全球器件需求达200万片，而产能仅60万片，近70%的供需缺口持续推高产业景气度。 这个曾被视为小众的材料，如今正在成为半导体行业的新焦点。 为何是磷化铟？ 在半导体领域，材料选择往往决定了技术路线的边界。 传统硅材料虽工艺成熟、成本低廉，但其物理特性在高频高速应用场景中逐渐显露短板。磷化铟作为第二代III-V族化合物 半导体的代表，在这场技术演进中脱颖而出。 磷化铟拥有硅材料10倍以上的电子迁移率（高达 1.2×104 cm²/V·s），同时具备高饱和电子漂移速度、优异的导热性与光电 转换效率，可支持100GHz以上的超高频 ...

Group 1 - The "Year of the Horse" edition of Moutai has a printing error, leading to a surge in second-hand prices, with listings ranging from 2300 to 2800 yuan, up from the original price of 1899 yuan [2] - Vivo has halted its AI glasses project after six months of development, citing difficulties in differentiation as the reason for the decision [2] - Lamborghini announced a record delivery of 10,747 vehicles in 2025, marking a 60-unit increase from 2024 and achieving over 10,000 deliveries for the second consecutive year [3] Group 2 - Yonghui Supermarket expects a net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025 due to significant strategic adjustments, including store renovations and asset write-offs [4] - The company has a high debt ratio of 88.96% and a current ratio of 0.63, indicating financial strain [6] - The company plans to complete its strategic adjustments by 2026 [6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target for December 2026 from 4900 to 5400 dollars per ounce, driven by increased diversification in gold holdings amid global uncertainties [11] - Nvidia has overtaken Apple as TSMC's largest customer, accounting for approximately 13% of TSMC's total revenue [11] - China has implemented a nationwide subsidy program for elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities, providing up to 800 yuan per month for various elder care services [12] Group 4 - Intel reported a 4.1% year-over-year decline in Q4 revenue, totaling 13.67 billion dollars, while adjusted EPS rose to 0.15 dollars [23] - The company expects Q1 revenue to be between 11.7 billion and 12.7 billion dollars, with adjusted EPS projected at 0.0 dollars [23] - The company "Raising a Cow" achieved over 7 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, reflecting steady growth from the previous year [23]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - The PBOC plans to flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, with an emphasis on managing interest rate policies to keep financing costs low [2] Structural Policies - The PBOC has introduced a series of structural monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3] - The PBOC has set up a dedicated 1 trillion yuan relending facility for private enterprises and increased the relending quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial markets and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to stabilize with four positive signals, including a noticeable stabilization in sales scale for new and second-hand homes [4] - There is increasing differentiation among cities and regions, with some core cities showing signs of activity in the real estate market [4] - Inventory levels have shown a certain degree of decline, contributing to the overall market recovery [4] Investment and Innovation - A strong domestic demand market is crucial for promoting technological innovation, as it attracts global resources, talent, and capital [5] - A domestic company with leading foundational model capabilities could benefit from a stronger consumer environment, enhancing subscription revenue and model investment interactions [5] AI and Technology Developments - Baidu has officially released the Wenxin large model 5.0, which supports various forms of information understanding and output [6] - Baichuan Intelligent has launched the Baichuan-M3 Plus, which significantly reduces the hallucination rate in medical scenarios and introduces evidence anchoring technology for verifiable medical judgments [8] Market Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited certain gas companies from establishing joint ventures, marking a significant enforcement of antitrust laws in the public utility sector [15] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging participation in centralized procurement [13] International Investment Trends - The Swedish largest private pension fund has sold a significant portion of its U.S. Treasury holdings due to concerns over the unpredictability of the U.S. government and rising debt levels [20] - Chinese enterprises are expected to maintain healthy and orderly development in foreign investments, with direct investments reaching $174.38 billion in 2025, a 7.1% increase from the previous year [14]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has seen a significant stock increase of 75%, outperforming the S&P 500, highlighting its critical role in the semiconductor industry as a foundational supplier [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - TSMC's stock performance has been exceptional, with a 75% increase since the last coverage, indicating strong investor confidence [1]. - The company's role as a "pick-and-shovel" provider in the semiconductor sector emphasizes its importance in the technology supply chain [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on identifying market asymmetries that offer a positive reward-to-risk ratio, particularly in high-quality companies with strong cash flow [1]. - The emphasis is on investing in companies that have a wide economic moat and trade at fair prices relative to their intrinsic value [1].

Key Points TSMC stock remains cheap despite its robust growth and strong outlook. Salesforce has been thrown into the bargain bin despite its agentic artificial intelligence (AI) opportunity. Meta Platforms is the cheapest of the big megacap tech stocks and is seeing strong AI-fueled growth. 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing › Even with the market hovering near all-time highs, there are still bargain stocks to be found. And despite the run-up among tech stocks that ...

Key Points Taiwan Semiconductor is a key chip supplier to nearly every AI hardware company. The stock trades at a slight premium to the market but at a discount to its big tech peers. This chip foundry is an excellent way to take advantage of the massive AI spending spree 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing › Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) was one of the best stocks to own in 2025 -- it rose over 50%. But 2026 is a new year. None of the stock's success ...