Core Viewpoint - The US stock market, particularly semiconductor stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and the increasing risk of a government shutdown [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Semiconductor stocks collectively dropped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 2%, and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also declining more than 2% [2][3]. - Other large tech stocks also faced declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3% [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Risks - The risk of a US government shutdown is rising, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025, as political negotiations stall [4]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about high valuations in the stock market, contributing to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing significantly to this growth [5]. - The core PCE price index for Q2 was revised up to 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may limit the Fed's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. Group 4: Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, suggesting a healthy labor market despite signs of cooling [7].

此外，周二，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济正面临"滞胀式"挑战，经济增长和就业市场出现明显疲 软，而通胀仍处于高位。这种"上下两难"的局面使货币政策制定者面临艰难抉择。在谈及金融市场时， 鲍威尔表示，美联储会关注整体金融状况，并指出"从多项衡量指标来看，美国股市估值相对偏高"。 周四，美股盘初走低，纳指跌超1%，明星科技股普跌，甲骨文(ORCL.US)跌超6%，美光(MU.US)、特 斯拉(TSLA.US)、台积电(TSM.US)、博通(AVGO.US)跌超3%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌超1%。消息面上， 随着美国国会民主党与共和党就联邦政府后续资金拨付方案陷入僵局，美国政府部门下周开始部分停摆 的风险正持续上升。如果政府停摆，这可能通过限制金融监管机构的运作、推迟关键经济数据的发布等 方式对市场产生影响。野村证券分析师在本周报告中指出，若停摆持续时间较长，可能导致投资者评估 宏观经济趋势所需的关键数据延迟发布甚至取消，例如月度就业报告与通胀数据。 ...

此外，周二，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济正面临"滞胀式"挑战，经济增长和就业市场出现明显疲 软，而通胀仍处于高位。这种"上下两难"的局面使货币政策制定者面临艰难抉择。在谈及金融市场时， 鲍威尔表示，美联储会关注整体金融状况，并指出"从多项衡量指标来看，美国股市估值相对偏高"。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，美股盘初走低，纳指跌超1%，明星科技股普跌，甲骨文(ORCL.US)跌超 6%，美光(MU.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、台积电(TSM.US)、博通(AVGO.US)跌超3%，英伟达 (NVDA.US)跌超1%。消息面上，随着美国国会民主党与共和党就联邦政府后续资金拨付方案陷入僵 局，美国政府部门下周开始部分停摆的风险正持续上升。如果政府停摆，这可能通过限制金融监管机构 的运作、推迟关键经济数据的发布等方式对市场产生影响。野村证券分析师在本周报告中指出，若停摆 持续时间较长，可能导致投资者评估宏观经济趋势所需的关键数据延迟发布甚至取消，例如月度就业报 告与通胀数据。 ...

Group 1 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 2%, indicating a general decline in the semiconductor sector [1] - Most semiconductor stocks experienced losses, with Wolfspeed dropping over 9% and NXP Semiconductors declining over 6% [1] - Other notable declines included Arm down over 4%, and companies like Marvell Technology, TSMC, and Micron Technology each falling over 3% [1] Group 2 - Broadcom, AMD, and Qualcomm also saw declines, each dropping over 2.5% [1]

Key Takeaways TSMC plans volume production of its A16 process in the second half of 2026.A16 offers 8-10% speed gains or 15-20% power efficiency versus the N2P process.TSMC's Q2 2025 revenues jumped 44% as 3nm and 5nm nodes drove 58% of wafer sales.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) , also known as TSMC, is preparing to launch its A16 process technology, with volume production expected in the second half of 2026. The A16 node, which is an extension of its 2nm platform, introduces Super Power R ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 这就需要革新AI设计工作，为此台积电联合Cadence、Synopsys两大EDA软件巨头，实现了AI驱动的芯片设计。 台积电3DIC方法论事业副总监Jim Chang提到这有助于提高台积电的技术能力达到最大化。根据他公布的数据，用AI开发只需要5分钟，而传统芯片工程 师需要2天时间。 事实上不止台积电一家尝试用AI设计芯片，谷歌等公司之前也有过类似的研发探索，AI都可以大幅提高工作效率。 9月25日消息，台积电表示，台积电联合Cadence、Synopsys两大EDA软件巨头，实现了AI驱动的芯片设计。 AI只需要5分钟，完成了传统芯片工程师需要2天时间完成的工作量。 考虑到AI能力现在还是爆发式提升，未来几年各大芯片公司使用AI设计芯片就不会是新闻了，肯定会有芯片设计工程师会受到影响，但这也会对工程师 大有裨益，就跟现在程序员使用AI辅助开发一样。 据报道，台积电3DIC方法论事业副总监Jim Chang提到这有助于提高台积电的技术能力达到最大化。 大家都知道当前的AI芯片对性能要求高，这也导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) have reached an all-time high of $286.00, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence in the company [1] Company Summary - TSMC's stock price has achieved a record level, reflecting its significant position in the semiconductor industry and potential growth prospects [1]

Core Insights - TSMC's 1.4nm "A14" process yield performance has reportedly surpassed expectations, indicating strong progress in development [2] - The A16 process integrates advanced technologies, achieving an 8-10% speed increase, a 15-20% reduction in power consumption, and a 1.1x increase in chip density compared to the N2P process, making it suitable for high-performance computing applications [1][4] - The A14 process, designed for AI and smartphone applications, offers up to a 15% speed increase, a 30% reduction in power consumption, and over a 20% increase in chip density compared to the N2 process [1][4] TSMC's Future Plans - TSMC plans to break ground on its 1.4nm factory in the fourth quarter, with an expected production value increase from NT$4,857 billion to NT$5,000 billion and maintaining around 4,500 jobs [4] - The first risk production of the 1.4nm factory is scheduled for 2027, with mass production expected in the second half of 2028 [5] - TSMC's advanced process roadmap extends to 2030, with 2nm mass production set for the second half of 2025 and the introduction of the A16 process in the second half of 2026, promising a further 15-20% improvement in performance and efficiency [5]

芯片ETF和半导体ETF近三月平均涨幅近60%，迎来高光时刻。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 有消息称，台积电正在计划对其3纳米制程和2纳米制程的工艺节点进行涨价。 相关产业链人士透露，由于研发成本高昂加上良率较竞争对手更高，台积电2纳米制程价格相比3纳米 或至少上涨50%。 这一涨幅远超市场预期，也进一步刺激了本就一路高涨的芯片ETF和半导体ETF相关标的。 （来源：网络公开数据，市值风云APP制表） 而真实的涨价传闻往往会引起资本市场波动，台积电于9月23日、24日两日累计涨幅超6%，美股其他 芯片股亦多数走强。 总而言之，尽管台积电并未证实涨价传闻，但市场正在为消费电子产品集体涨价的时代提前做准备。 如果台积电进行涨价，这将直接影响明年各大品牌手机的价格，同时中国的多家智能手机制造商的新 产品可能不得不在明年提价。 催生芯片股上涨不仅仅只有台积电，就在9月23日，上海微电子（SMEE）展台上首次公开亮相了极 紫外（EUV）光刻机参数图，这标志着国产EUV进入原理机搭建阶段，国产光刻机产业进入爆发元 年。 涨价传闻刺激市场，股价创历史新高 风云君梳理了近年来台积电几次重要涨价传闻的主要信息 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC, raising its target price for TSMC's stock from NT$1,275 to NT$1,550, while also increasing earnings per share expectations for 2025-2026 and revenue growth forecasts for 2026 due to strong AI demand in data centers, advanced process capacity release, and sustained high gross margins [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - TSMC's revenue in USD is expected to grow by 24% in 2026, driven by four main factors: strong demand for N3 process, N2 process demand from iPhone models and new flagship SoCs from Qualcomm and MediaTek, an increase in average selling prices (ASP) for advanced processes by 6%-10%, and a 60% growth in CoWoS wafer shipments in advanced packaging [1] - The data center AI business is highlighted as TSMC's core long-term growth engine, with a revised compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% for data center AI revenue from 2024-2029, and an expectation to further raise the five-year CAGR guidance from the current midpoint of 40% [2] Group 2: Demand Structure and Market Trends - AI accelerators (GPUs and ASICs) are projected to account for 68% of TSMC's data center AI total demand by 2029, with sustained high demand from large cloud service providers, emerging cloud companies, AI labs, and sovereign AI projects driving GPU demand [2] - The demand for networking equipment and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) chips is also expected to contribute significantly, with a CAGR of 58% for TSMC's AI networking equipment revenue from 2024-2029, and a forecasted revenue of $12 billion from HBM chips by 2029, representing 12% of total data center AI revenue [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - To meet strong demand, TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to increase from $45 billion to $48 billion, focusing on N2 and N3 advanced process capacity and advanced packaging [5] - TSMC plans to add approximately 50,000 wafers per month of N2 process capacity by the end of 2026, with N3 capacity potentially being accelerated in Arizona to meet unexpected AI accelerator demand [5] Group 4: Financial Performance Expectations - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to remain flat quarter-over-quarter, with a projected 35% growth in USD revenue for the fiscal year 2025, benefiting from better-than-expected demand from Apple and AI data centers [5] - The gross margin for TSMC is anticipated to remain at a high level of 50% in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026, supported by stable exchange rates, capacity dilution from U.S. factories, price increases in advanced processes, and strong demand for leading processes, despite a 25% increase in depreciation costs [5]