Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue increased by 5.7% sequentially in NT$ and by 1.9% in U.S. dollar terms to $33.7 billion, slightly exceeding guidance [3] - Gross margin rose by 2.8 percentage points sequentially to 62.3%, driven by cost improvements and favorable foreign exchange rates [3] - Operating margin increased by 3.4 percentage points sequentially to 54% due to lower operating expenses [3] - Full year 2025 revenue increased by 35.9% in U.S. dollar terms to $1 billion, with gross margin up 3.8 percentage points to 59.9% [6][7] - Full year EPS increased by 46.4% to TWD 66.25 and ROE increased by 5.1 percentage points to 35.4% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - 3 nm process technology contributed 28% of wafer revenue in Q4, while 5 nm and 7 nm accounted for 35% and 14% respectively [4] - Advanced technologies (7 nm and below) accounted for 77% of wafer revenue for the full year, up from 69% in 2024 [4] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue increased by 48% year over year, accounting for 58% of total revenue in 2025 [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - HPC revenue increased by 4% quarter over quarter to account for 55% of Q4 revenue, while smartphone revenue increased by 11% to account for 32% [5] - Automotive revenue decreased by 1% to account for 5%, and Data Center Equipment (DCE) revenue decreased by 22% to account for 1% [5] - Overall, smartphone, IoT, and automotive segments saw year-over-year increases of 11%, 15%, and 34% respectively in 2025 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TSMC plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on advanced process technologies [13] - The company aims to leverage manufacturing excellence to drive productivity and optimize capacity across nodes [10][16] - TSMC is committed to supporting customer growth while maintaining a disciplined approach to capacity planning [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the AI megatrend, forecasting a 14% growth in the Foundry 2.0 industry for 2026, supported by robust AI-related demand [19] - Concerns about potential tariff policies and rising component prices were acknowledged, with a focus on prudent business planning [18] - Management expects 2026 to be another strong growth year, with full-year revenue projected to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms [19] Other Important Information - TSMC's cash and marketable securities totaled TWD 3.1 trillion or $98 billion at the end of Q4 [5] - The company plans to pay a cash dividend of TWD 23 per share in 2026, up from TWD 18 in 2025 [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on customer demand and AI-related growth - Management confirmed strong customer demand for AI, with evidence of growth in their businesses, indicating that AI is a real and growing trend [36][37] Question: U.S. expansion plans and capacity commitments - Management is accelerating fab expansion in Arizona due to strong demand from AI customers, with plans for additional fabs [41][42] Question: Evaluation of power supply for data centers - Management is actively assessing power supply needs for AI infrastructure, ensuring that silicon supply remains the primary bottleneck [46][47] Question: Advanced packaging revenue contribution and focus areas - Advanced packaging contributed about 8% of revenue in 2025, with expectations for growth in the next five years [50][51] Question: Non-AI market outlook and competition - Management expects strong demand in non-AI segments, particularly in high-end smartphones, despite rising memory costs [55][66] Question: Engineering talent and capacity planning - Management acknowledged challenges in developing engineering talent but emphasized productivity improvements as a focus for 2026-2027 [71][72]

Financial Highlights - In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 5.7% sequentially in NT$ and by 1.9% in U.S. dollars to $33.7 billion, slightly exceeding guidance [3] - Gross margin rose by 2.8 percentage points sequentially to 62.3%, driven by cost improvements and favorable foreign exchange rates [3][9] - Operating margin increased by 3.4 percentage points to 54% due to operating leverage [3] - Full year 2025 revenue increased by 35.9% in U.S. dollars to $1 billion, and by 31.6% in NT dollars to TWD 3.8 trillion [7] - Full year EPS increased by 46.4% to TWD 66.25, and ROE increased by 5.1 percentage points to 35.4% [7] Business Line Performance - In Q4 2025, 3 nm process technology contributed 28% of wafer revenue, while 5 nm and 7 nm accounted for 35% and 14% respectively [4] - Advanced technologies (7 nm and below) accounted for 77% of wafer revenue for the full year, up from 69% in 2024 [4] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue increased by 48% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue in 2025 [5] Market Performance - HPC revenue increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter to account for 55% of Q4 revenue, while smartphone revenue increased by 11% to account for 32% [5] - Automotive revenue decreased by 1% to account for 5%, and Data Center Equipment (DCE) revenue decreased by 22% to account for 1% [5] - Overall, HPC accounted for 58% of 2025 revenue, with smartphone at 29%, IoT at 5%, automotive at 5%, and DCE at 1% [5] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $52 billion-$56 billion in 2026 to support growth in advanced process technologies [12] - The company aims to maintain a long-term gross margin of 56% and higher through the cycle, despite challenges from overseas expansion and rising manufacturing costs [15] - TSMC is focused on leveraging manufacturing excellence and optimizing capacity across nodes to support profitability [15] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the AI megatrend, forecasting a 14% growth in the Foundry 2.0 industry in 2026, supported by robust AI-related demand [18] - TSMC expects full-year revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms in 2026 [18] - The company is committed to supporting customer growth and addressing the structural increase in long-term market demand [19] Other Important Information - TSMC's cash and marketable securities reached TWD 3.1 trillion ($98 billion) at the end of Q4 2025 [5] - The company generated TWD 726 billion in cash from operations and spent TWD 357 billion on capital expenditures in Q4 2025 [6] - TSMC plans to pay a cash dividend of TWD 23 per share in 2026, up from TWD 18 in 2025 [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Customer Demand and AI Bubble Concerns - Management reassured that customer demand for AI is real, with evidence of growth and financial returns from cloud service providers [33][34] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble were acknowledged, but management remains confident in the long-term growth driven by AI [35] Question: U.S. Expansion Plans - TSMC is accelerating its fab expansion in Arizona to meet strong AI demand, with plans for multiple fabs and a Gigafab cluster [39][40] Question: Power Supply for Data Centers - Management confirmed that power supply considerations are factored into planning, and customers have been proactive in addressing power needs for AI infrastructure [44][46] Question: Non-AI Market Outlook - Management expects strong demand in high-end smartphones and PCs, which are less sensitive to memory price increases [52][68] Question: Competition from Intel Foundry - Management expressed confidence in TSMC's competitive position, noting that technology complexity and time to market are significant barriers for new entrants [60]

Group 1 - TSMC expects capital expenditures to surge to $56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations and reflecting strong confidence in the sustainability of global AI growth [1] - The company forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% in 2026, surpassing analyst average expectations [1] - TSMC's Q1 revenue guidance is projected to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $33.22 billion [1] Group 2 - TSMC's strong outlook signals positive trends for AI development, supporting demand for NVIDIA accelerators and alleviating concerns about the sustainability of data center spending by tech giants like Meta and Amazon [3] - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$505.7 billion for Q4 2025, a 35% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3] - The company’s gross margin improved from 59.5% to 62.3%, and operating margin increased from 50.6% to 54%, both surpassing analyst forecasts [3] Group 3 - A severe shortage of memory chips in 2025 may pose challenges to TSMC's broader business, as manufacturers prioritize high-end memory production for NVIDIA and AMD chips [4] - The memory shortage is expected to impact mobile device sales in 2026, with smartphone sales projected to decline by 11.6% year-over-year according to Macquarie Capital [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported strong fourth-quarter earnings driven by robust demand for AI chips, achieving a 35% year-over-year profit growth, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit increase [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached NT$1.046 trillion (approximately RMB 230.85 billion), a 20.5% year-over-year increase and a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing expectations of NT$1.034 trillion (approximately RMB 228.20 billion) [3]. - Net profit was NT$505.74 billion (approximately RMB 111.62 billion), reflecting a 35% year-over-year growth and an 11.8% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding the forecast of NT$478.37 billion (approximately RMB 105.58 billion) [3]. - Gross margin stood at 62.3%, up from 59.0% in the previous quarter, while operating margin improved to 54.0% [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Advanced chips (7nm and below) accounted for 77% of TSMC's total wafer revenue, with 3nm technology contributing 28%, 5nm at 35%, and 7nm at 14% [5][6]. - High-performance computing (HPC) and smartphones represented 55% and 32% of net revenue, respectively, with IoT, automotive, and data communication devices contributing smaller shares [8]. Future Outlook - TSMC plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, projecting between $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, following a total of $40.9 billion in 2025 [10][11]. - The company anticipates nearly 30% growth in sales in dollar terms by 2026, driven by AI accelerators and other growth platforms including smartphones and automotive sectors [11].

每经AI快讯，1月15日，美股半导体设备股夜盘集体拉升，阿斯麦涨超5%，台积电、应用材料涨超 4%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is experiencing strong and sustained demand for AI, with accelerated adoption of AI model applications, leading to significant capacity expansion efforts to meet customer needs [1] Group 1: Demand and Capacity - TSMC has received strong signals of demand from customers who are directly seeking capacity support [1] - The company is fully committed to expanding its production capacity to support this demand [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth - TSMC projects a nearly 30% increase in revenue by 2026 when calculated in USD [1]

Core Insights - The global AI arms race is hitting a physical wall due to TSMC's production capacity constraints, leading to a significant supply-demand gap in the semiconductor industry [1] - Major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google are struggling to secure sufficient chip supply from TSMC, which is currently unable to meet the surging demand [2] - TSMC's production lines are under pressure from both AI chip demand and traditional client orders, complicating capacity allocation [3] Group 1: Demand Surge and Allocation Challenges - TSMC is facing a difficult balancing act between maintaining stability for existing clients and addressing the unpredictable demand from the AI sector [3] - The demand for chips is driven by multiple factors, including OpenAI's plans for super data centers and Google's aggressive procurement of NVIDIA GPUs [3] - TSMC adheres to strict annual schedules for capacity and pricing negotiations, limiting flexibility for clients to adjust orders based on market conditions [3] Group 2: Expansion Plans and Limitations - TSMC is adjusting its global footprint to address capacity shortages, including shifting a new factory in Japan to produce advanced 2nm chips, expected to be completed by 2027 [4] - The company is accelerating the construction of a second factory in Arizona, aiming to start 3nm chip production a year earlier than planned in 2027 [4] - Current expansion efforts will not resolve immediate capacity issues, as TSMC is primarily redesigning existing factory space to accommodate new production lines [4] Group 3: Investment Caution Amid Cyclical Nature - Despite the booming AI demand, TSMC is cautious about committing to new factory constructions due to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry [6] - Building a cutting-edge fab costs billions and takes years, while demand can fluctuate rapidly, as seen during the pandemic [6] - TSMC's pure foundry model limits its investment flexibility, as it relies entirely on customer orders and faces risks of idle capacity if clients cancel orders [6] Group 4: Packaging Bottlenecks - Advanced packaging has emerged as another critical bottleneck, essential for high-end AI chips [7] - TSMC has reallocated some older chip production capacity to advanced packaging, but the complexity of the process remains a challenge [7] - NVIDIA has previously faced packaging capacity shortages, leading to difficulties for other clients like Google when trying to increase their orders [7]

IT之家 1 月 15 日消息，台积电今日公布 2025 年第四季财务报告，并公布了 2026 年第一季度业绩预 估。 台积电表示，2026 年的税率将维持在 17%—18%。 此外，台积电预计 2026 年资本支出 520 亿美元至 560 亿美元（现汇率约合 3632.55 亿元至 3911.98 亿元 人民币）。作为参考，台积电 2025 年资本支出总计 409 亿美元（现汇率约合 2857.14 亿元人民币）。 台积电还表示，未来三年资本支出将显著增加。 台积电预计 2026 年第一季度销售额 346 亿美元至 358 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 2417.04 亿元至 2500.87 亿元人民币），市场预估 332.2 亿美元。 台积电预计 2026 年第一季度营业利益率 54％至 56％，市场预估 49.7%；预计 2026 年第一季度毛利率 63％至 65％，市场预估 59.6％。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 台积电：预计第一季度销售额346亿美元至358亿美元，市场预估332.2亿美元；预计第一季度毛利率 63％至65％，市场预估59.6％。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that TSMC reported strong financial results for Q4 2025, with significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and net profit [1] - TSMC's consolidated revenue for Q4 2025 was approximately 1,046.09 billion NTD (about 230.66 billion RMB), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [1] - The net profit for Q4 2025 was approximately 505.74 billion NTD (about 111.52 billion RMB), with earnings per share of 19.50 NTD (about 4.30 RMB), both showing a year-on-year growth of 35% [1] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's cumulative revenue was approximately 38,090.54 billion NTD (about 839.90 billion RMB), which is an increase of 31.6% compared to the previous year [2] - In Q4 2025, the revenue from advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced processes) accounted for 77% of the total wafer sales [1] - The shipment percentages for different process nodes in Q4 2025 were as follows: 3nm process accounted for 28%, 5nm process for 35%, and 7nm process for 14% of the wafer sales [3]