Group 1: ZTOExpress (Cayman) Inc. - ZTOExpress has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a 5.9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - ZTO's shares have gained 14.3% over the last three months, while the S&P 500 has declined by 6.0% [1] - The company has a Momentum Score of A [1] Group 2: Bunge Global SA - Bunge Global has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a 4.6% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Bunge Global's shares have gained 13.9% over the past three months, compared to the S&P 500's decline of 6.0% [2] - The company has a Momentum Score of B [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Transportation Sector**: Focus on supply-demand improvement and growth stocks for 2026, with a historical high in airline passenger load factor in 2025 but a decline in ticket prices due to weak demand and competition among airlines [1][6] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: Expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, long-distance crude oil exports, and geopolitical factors, leading to an anticipated rise in freight rates [1][4] - **Express Delivery Industry**: Slowing internal growth with price pressures and competition from instant delivery services, with a projected price decline of around 2% in 2026 [1][22] Core Insights and Arguments - **Airline Industry**: - Supply growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 due to fewer aircraft introductions and high utilization rates. Demand growth is projected at 5.3%, slightly above GDP growth, driven by business recovery and increased inbound tourism [2][6] - Airlines are expected to focus on ticket pricing management due to historical high load factors, with significant profit elasticity anticipated [2][6] - **Oil Market**: - Global crude oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, primarily from the U.S. and Brazil, leading to a decline in oil prices [1][10][11] - Geopolitical factors will add marginal volatility, with freight rates expected to stabilize around $50,000 to $60,000 [12][13] - **Port and Shipping Industry**: - The port sector is experiencing low single-digit growth in export volumes, with a recovery in import bulk cargo throughput expected in 2026 [3][15] - The shipping sector is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for a second wave of price increases post-Spring Festival [1][8] - **Express Delivery Companies**: - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, SF Express, and Jitu Express, focusing on cost optimization through automation and potential growth in Southeast Asia [1][24] Additional Important Insights - **Railway Logistics**: - Container penetration in the railway logistics sector is expected to increase significantly, with recommendations for leading companies in this niche [3][20] - **Airport Sector**: - A neutral outlook due to slow recovery in non-aeronautical revenue streams, with a need for more effective monetization strategies [3][7] - **Market Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to hold current positions or increase holdings during seasonal lows in December and January, particularly in the oil shipping sector [13] - **Growth Stocks**: - Focus on industry leaders with attractive valuations, companies in expanding niches, and high-dividend stocks for stable returns [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the transportation sector's outlook for 2026, including specific recommendations and insights into various sub-sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics route taken by a package of lamb from Lanzhou to Chengdu, which first diverted to Nanjing, highlighting inefficiencies in modern logistics despite advanced technology [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The package's journey involved a total distance of approximately 2800 kilometers instead of the direct 660 kilometers, raising questions about the efficiency of logistics operations [1][3]. - The response from EMS indicated that this routing is standard practice, as Nanjing serves as a central hub for their national air network [4][5]. - Many logistics companies, including SF Express, also utilize similar routing strategies, consolidating packages at central hubs before final delivery [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Rationale - The "hub-and-spoke" model is employed to achieve economies of scale and reduce costs, which may appear inefficient to consumers but is a calculated decision from a logistics perspective [7][8]. - The cost of shipping multiple packages together significantly reduces the average cost per item, demonstrating the financial logic behind the routing choices [9][10]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies have strategically chosen locations for their hubs based on factors like cargo flow, land costs, and transportation infrastructure, with a focus on new first-tier cities and key economic regions [11][12]. - The government's logistics hub planning aligns with the choices made by companies, creating a supportive environment for efficient logistics operations [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The integration of national logistics networks with corporate logistics systems is expected to enhance efficiency, allowing for smarter routing decisions that balance cost, speed, and reliability [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

Core Insights - Two stocks with strong income characteristics and buy rank are highlighted for investors: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. and Bunge Global SA [1][2] Company Summaries ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. - The logistics company has seen a 5.9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - It holds a Zacks Rank of 1 and offers a dividend yield of 2.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.0% [1] Bunge Global SA - The agribusiness and food company has experienced a 4.6% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - It also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 and provides a dividend yield of 2.9%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2]

Group 1: Federated Hermes, Inc. (FHI) - Federated Hermes has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.19, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.80 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 7.7% over the last 60 days [1] - The company possesses a Value Score of A, indicating strong value characteristics [1] Group 2: Bunge Global SA (BG) - Bunge Global carries a Zacks Rank of 1 and has a P/E ratio of 12.83, compared to 25.07 for the S&P [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next year earnings has also increased by 7.7% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a Value Score of A, reflecting its strong value characteristics [2] Group 3: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) - ZTO Express holds a Zacks Rank of 1 with a P/E ratio of 12.76, lower than the S&P average of 25.07 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has risen by 5.9% over the last 60 days [3] - The company possesses a Value Score of B, indicating solid value characteristics [3]

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | U ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express's business volume growth rate has slowed down in Q3 2025, but profitability has improved due to anti-involution measures. Cost efficiency continues to rise, although future cost reduction potential may narrow. The company's market share has slightly declined, but its leading position remains stable [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Total business volume reached 9.57 billion parcels, up 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 and is slightly behind peers [2]. - Net profit and adjusted net profit for Q3 were 2.54 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 5%. The improvement in profit growth is attributed to the recovery of industry price levels and optimization of the company's business structure [2]. - The company has revised its annual business volume guidance down to 38.2-38.7 billion parcels from the previous 38.8-40.1 billion parcels, anticipating stable growth of around 8% in Q4 [2]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency - In Q3 2025, the cost per parcel was 0.91 yuan, an increase of 0.09 yuan year-on-year. The transportation cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% to 0.34 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [3]. - Sorting costs per parcel fell by 1.9% to 0.25 yuan, primarily due to the benefits from automation equipment investments. Although the growth rate of business volume is slowing, the company is expected to maintain a downward trend in transportation and sorting costs, albeit at a reduced rate [3]. Group 3: Market Position - ZTO Express's market share in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline of 0.64 and 0.13 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Despite this, the company retains its leading position in the industry [3]. - The ongoing anti-involution regulations are expected to shift industry competition from quantity expansion to quality improvement, favoring leading express companies with high-quality services and mature product systems [3].