齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 孟广鑫 7月9日，由山西杏花村汾酒集团有限责任公司主办、山西日报传媒（集团）有限责任公司承办的"2025青花汾酒茶道酒香"品牌活动在俄罗斯首都莫斯科圆满 落幕。活动期间，"中国汾酒与俄罗斯伏特加 国酒对话"论坛、克里姆林宫博物馆青花汾酒收藏仪式等项目的开展，为中俄传统文化交流、中俄酒类酿造技 艺共鉴、酒类品牌国际化发展注入强劲动力与深厚内涵。 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司总工程师韩英在仪式中表示："汾酒拥有6000年不间断酿造史，1500年成名史，1915年获巴拿马万国博览会甲等大奖章，是 中国清香型白酒鼻祖与国家清香型白酒标准制定者。通过此次收藏仪式，希望以酒为媒，让中华五千年农耕文明的活态传承在中俄土地上生生不息。" 俄中友协第一副主席、共和国勋章获得者库里科娃作为中俄民间外交的重要推动者，对汾酒的俄罗斯之旅寄予期待："汾酒诞生于山西杏花村这片响亮的土 地，希望通过今天的仪式，让更多俄罗斯家庭在庆典或聚会中品尝到这份来自东方的美酒，让汾酒的故事走进千家万户。" 青花汾酒入驻克里姆林宫：万里茶道的新文化注脚 9日下午，莫斯科大都会酒店内，一场承载历史使命的收藏仪式备受瞩目。山西杏花村汾酒 ...

Core Insights - The IWSR report indicates a significant restructuring in the Asia-Pacific alcoholic beverage market, with an overall slowdown in growth, particularly in China where baijiu sales have declined by 5% while gin sales surged by 20% [1][6] Group 1: Market Overview - The total beverage alcohol (TBA) volume in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to decrease by 2% in 2024, with a 3% decline in total value [2] - Major categories such as beer (-3%), spirits (-2%), and wine (-4%) have all experienced value declines, while ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages saw a slight increase in sales (+1%) [2] - India stands out with a TBA growth of 6%, driven by a 19% increase in ultra-premium product consumption, contrasting sharply with China's 5% decline [2][5] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recorded a TBA growth of 2%, while Japan (-1%), South Korea (-1%), and Australia (-3%) faced declines [2] - The Indian market is benefiting from a recent UK-India free trade agreement, which will significantly reduce import tariffs on Scotch whisky and British gin, fostering growth in these categories [5] Group 3: Category-Specific Trends - In India, there is a notable increase in the consumption of Irish whiskey (+58%) and vodka (+17%), indicating a shift in consumer preferences beyond traditional whiskey [5] - In China, the decline in key categories such as baijiu (-5%), cognac (-14%), and Scotch whisky (-8%) is attributed to reduced formal consumption occasions [6][8] - Gin and vodka are benefiting from the rising cocktail culture, with gin sales increasing by 20% and vodka by 4% in China [6] Group 4: Future Projections - IWSR forecasts that from 2024 to 2034, beer sales in China will remain stable, while RTDs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2%, and sparkling wine at +5% [9] - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for Scotch whisky and 3% for gin in India from 2024 to 2029 [5] - The overall spirits category in the Asia-Pacific is expected to decline by 1% CAGR, but excluding baijiu, the growth rate is projected at +2% [9] Group 5: Wine and Beer Trends - The wine category in the Asia-Pacific region faced a 4% decline in 2024, an improvement from the 8% drop in 2023, with still wine and other wine categories contributing to the decrease [13] - Beer sales are expected to continue declining until 2026, with a projected recovery starting in 2027, particularly in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines [14][16] Group 6: RTD Growth - RTDs are positioned for strong growth in the coming years, primarily driven by Japan and Korea, with a projected CAGR of +3% from 2024 to 2029 [17] - Japan is expected to be a key driver for RTD growth, while China, Korea, and India are also anticipated to see increases in this category [17]

Global Beverage Trends - The global beverage alcohol market is undergoing profound changes due to cautious consumer behavior, geopolitical instability, and evolving consumption scenarios [5][6] - Champagne sales have plummeted by 20%, while fortified wines and cognac also face declines [5] - The market is witnessing a shift from formal, high-end occasions to more casual social settings [5] Market Performance by Category - Ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) have achieved a 2% growth, while beer, spirits, wine, and cider consumption has decreased by 1%, 1%, 4%, and 3% respectively compared to 2023 [10] - The beer market is declining primarily due to changes in consumer demand in key markets like China and the U.S. [10] - Prosecco has emerged as a standout in the wine category, being the only segment to show growth due to its affordability compared to champagne [12] Future Trends and Opportunities - Non-alcoholic products are experiencing significant growth, with over a quarter of consumers trying non-alcoholic beverages in the past six months [12] - The demand for diverse beverage options is rising, driven by increased health consciousness among consumers [12] Market Dynamics in China - The Chinese market is characterized by a decline in business dining occasions, impacting traditional consumption patterns [19] - White wine varieties like German Riesling and New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc are gaining traction among younger consumers, who are shifting away from traditional red wine preferences [19] - Social media platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin are becoming crucial for brand marketing to engage younger consumers [21] Overall Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, experts believe the Chinese market is nearing a recovery phase, with potential for growth as it approaches a cyclical low point [23]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 证券分析师 苏铖 百润股份（002568） 积极拥抱新渠道，关注新品节奏 2025 年 05 月 26 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809.42 | 719.14 | 806.85 | 970.60 | 1,181.04 | | 同比（%） | 55.28 | (11.15) | 12.20 | 20.30 | 21.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 34.12 | 38.41 | 34.23 | 28.46 | 23.39 | [ ...

四川名酒水井坊有一个特别的身份，是A股唯一一家外资控股的白酒企业，由全球最大的烈酒集团之一帝亚吉欧（Diageo）控股。但未来，这一身份有可 能会发生变化。 5月20日，总部位于伦敦的帝亚吉欧公布2025财年第三季度（截至2025.3.31日）业绩后，公布了一项"加速计划"，指导未来数年发展方向，其中包括成本 节约和去杠杆，宣布"要在未来几年恰当且有选择性的资产处置。" 20日晚间，分析师电话会议中，首席财务官Nik Jhangiani如此描述："通过内部和董事会评估，我们看到了一些机会，可以进行一些我认为是实质性的变 革，不只是资产组合削减……我无法透露更多，但显然，这将超出过去三年您看到的规模较小的品牌处置。" 帝亚吉欧旗下拥有约200个酒水品牌，在180多个国家及地区生产销售产品，包括知名苏格兰威士忌品牌尊尼获加（Johnnie Walker）、苏格登（The Singleton）；其他品类如百利甜酒（Baileys）、斯米诺伏特加（Smirnoff）、健力士黑啤（Guinness）等。 帝亚吉欧一直在出售表现不佳的小品牌，比如不久前出售了利口酒Safari和朗姆酒Cacique。帝亚吉欧庞大的产品体系 ...

Core Insights - Costco's private label brand, Kirkland Signature, continues to be a major force in the retail sector, generating approximately $86 billion in annual sales, accounting for about one-third of the company's total revenue [1] - The brand's success is attributed to its ability to offer high-quality products at lower prices than national brands, enhancing Costco's negotiating power with suppliers and maintaining healthy profit margins [1] - Kirkland Signature's product offerings have expanded significantly since its launch in 1995, contributing to increased customer loyalty and traffic, which supports Costco's membership model and high renewal rates [1] Product Development and Strategy - In the first quarter earnings call, Costco executives highlighted new Kirkland products, including KS French fries, KS vodka, and soda [2] - A key part of Kirkland's future strategy is to focus on developing products that can be seamlessly sold in international markets [2] - Costco management emphasizes ongoing investments in price leadership and product innovation to keep Kirkland at the forefront of private label growth, both in the U.S. and globally [2]

Group 1 - The 22nd China (Luohe) Food Expo showcases over 1,000 specialty products from more than 50 companies across 12 countries, indicating strong international interest in the Chinese market [1] - French red wine is highlighted as having significant long-term potential in China, with increasing consumer interest [1] - Thai food products, particularly durian products and Tom Yum soup, are gaining popularity among Chinese consumers, with successful sales through e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 2 - Malaysia is the guest country at the expo, presenting over 500 specialty food items, with many brands already entering major Chinese supermarkets [2] - The implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to enhance food cooperation between Malaysia and China [2] - The Belarusian pavilion features over 100 products across six categories, including dairy, juices, and snacks, with a focus on direct shipping and quick delivery to Luohe [4][5] Group 3 - Belarus has signed agency agreements with 14 companies, amounting to orders worth $1 million, showcasing the demand for its products in China [5] - The establishment of the Belarus Economic and Trade Representative Office in Luohe aims to facilitate trade and cultural exchanges between Belarus and China [5] - The Belarus brand pavilion serves as a platform for trade and investment, promoting opportunities for Chinese food companies to expand into the CIS and Central Eastern European markets [5]

Group 1 - The recent trend of "blind box cocktail challenges" on social media platforms like Xiaohongshu involves mixing various drinks without prior discussion, leading to potential health risks due to unintentional high alcohol consumption [1] - Mixing coffee with alcohol is believed to enhance alertness, but it can mask intoxication, leading to higher alcohol intake and risky behaviors [2][3] - The combination of energy drinks and alcohol can cause long-term brain damage due to the opposing effects of alcohol and caffeine, which may lead to excessive alcohol consumption [4] Group 2 - Using soda water as a mixer can accelerate alcohol absorption, increasing the risk of intoxication due to the carbonation effect [5][6] - A study indicated that vodka mixed with soda water resulted in faster alcohol absorption compared to vodka mixed with water, highlighting the potential dangers of such combinations [6]

说到中国北疆的宝藏旅行地，怎么能不提满洲里？这座与俄罗斯接壤的边境小城，藏着太多意想不到的 惊喜。而其中最让我念念不忘的，莫过于那个既能"剁手"买遍俄罗斯好货、又能沉浸式感受异国风情 的"中俄互贸免税区"。怎么说呢……如果你以为这里只是个普通购物点，那可就大错特错了！ 高端美妆与轻奢的性价比之战 雅诗兰黛小棕瓶比国内专柜便宜近30%，瑞士莲巧克力堆成小山任你挑……但更让我挪不开脚的，是那 些在国内难得一见的俄罗斯本土品牌。比如主打天然成分的"娜塔莎"护手霜，铝管包装复古得像是从苏 联老电影里拿出来的道具，涂上手却滋润到能扛住草原的狂风。 舌尖上的欧亚大陆 从边贸小市场到国家级试验区：免税区的"前世今生" 站在免税区入口，看着眼前极具俄式风情的尖顶建筑群，你很难想象这里曾是1992年国务院批准的首批 跨国互市贸易区之一。当年，这里不过是个以物易物的小型边贸市场，而如今却成了中俄贸易的"黄金 走廊"。 2015年是个转折点。呼伦贝尔旅业集团与满洲里互贸区管委会联手投资5亿元，把这片区域彻底升级成 了集免税购物、文旅体验、仓储物流于一体的"超级综合体"。对了，突然想起个冷知识：这里还是中国 唯一由单一企业（满洲里中 ...