A critical question is whether the price change is temporary or permanent. It is easy to focus on the recent rise in oil prices, but compared to early April, oil prices are only up modestly. Relative to mid-January, oil prices are little changed and are indeed down a touch on a year-over-year basis. June 22, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea War and Oil This entire year has been marked with global uncertainty. The discussions of a trade war have shifted again to disc ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CR Micro (688396.SS) has been upgraded from Underweight to Equal-weight with a target price increase from Rmb28.10 to Rmb40.00 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report identifies three key investment themes in the Chinese automotive semiconductor sector: Power Discrete Devices, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), and Microcontrollers (MCU) [4][23]. - China's electric vehicle (EV) market is projected to grow significantly, with EV penetration expected to rise from 28% in 2024 to 42% by 2030, indicating a strong demand for automotive semiconductors [3][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localization in the semiconductor supply chain, noting that most global automotive chip companies are still in the early stages of implementing localization strategies in China [4][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Themes - The three key investment areas are: 1. **Power Discrete Devices**: Chinese companies have made solid progress in IGBT and SiC substrates, with opportunities in MOSFET and SiC devices [4][40]. 2. **ADAS**: The ADAS SoC market is expected to have the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR), benefiting various suppliers including SoC vendors and peripheral chip manufacturers [4][24]. 3. **MCU**: The self-sufficiency rate for automotive MCUs is very low, at less than 5% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential for leading local companies [4][41]. Market Dynamics - China consumed 56% of the global electric vehicle production, and the report forecasts that the domestic automotive semiconductor market will continue to grow faster than global peers due to the increasing demand for EVs and government support for supply chain localization [3][27]. - The report highlights that the automotive semiconductor supply chain in Greater China currently accounts for less than 5% of the global supply, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 15% [37][38]. Company Ratings and Strategies - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their positions in the identified themes: - **Power Semi**: Companies like Starpower (603290.SS), Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ), and SICC (688234.SS) are highlighted for their growth potential [5][23]. - **ADAS**: Companies such as Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) and Will Semiconductor (603501.SS) are noted for their strong positions in the ADAS market [5][23]. - **MCU**: GigaDevice (603986.SS) is recognized for its potential to benefit from localization trends [5][23]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that by 2027, the self-sufficiency rate for automotive chips in China will reach 28%, reflecting the ongoing efforts to enhance local production capabilities [16][53]. - The expected growth in the electric vehicle market is projected to triple by 2030, with significant implications for the semiconductor industry [33][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc is Overweight, with a price target of $410.00, while the industry view is In-Line [5][74]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for Tesla to develop new AI-enabled devices that enhance the connection between digital life and automotive experiences, suggesting that the automobile's role in the mobile/hybrid compute market is underestimated [2][3]. - The concept of "Robo-DoF" is introduced, indicating that as AI integrates into physical forms, the demand for actuators and components will significantly increase, with projections of over 60 billion points of actuation across various robot types [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of humanoid robots and their components, encouraging clients to explore their own models for market growth [7]. Summary by Sections Tesla Inc Overview - Tesla Inc's current market capitalization is approximately $1,133,938 million, with a recent stock price of $322.05 [5]. - The projected EPS for the fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.59, $2.90, and $4.53 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the anticipated growth in the robotics market, driven by the proliferation of various types of robots, which will require a vast array of components such as electric motors and encoders [3][7]. - The potential for Tesla to act as a third-party supplier is valued at $17 per share, indicating a diversified revenue stream beyond automotive sales [14]. Humanoid Robotics - The report includes an updated list of stocks related to humanoid robotics and their components, suggesting a significant market opportunity in this sector [11][7]. - The analysis encourages clients to engage with the evolving relationship between automotive companies and humanoid robotics, indicating a growing intersection of these industries [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a weakening demand for US equities, with a notable shift towards European stocks, but maintains that the narrative of foreign investors abandoning US stocks is overstated [10][19][67]. Core Insights - Demand for US equities is declining, benefiting European stocks, with nearly US$37 billion flowing into European equity funds year-to-date, significantly higher than previous years [8][48]. - Despite the decline in US equity demand, foreign investors have continued to net buy US stocks, indicating that the market is not experiencing a complete withdrawal of foreign capital [10][20]. - The report highlights that US investors have been reallocating from domestic equities, with net sales of approximately US$24 billion since Liberation Day, while foreign investors have added to US stocks during the same period [20][28]. Summary by Sections Equity Flows - Net flows to international funds have increased dramatically since the end of 2024, indicating a shift in investor preferences [3][60]. - Flows to US equities have slowed down since the start of the year, with approximately 40% of weeks experiencing net outflows [11][12]. Regional Focus - European equities have become the primary destination for equity fund flows, with record inflows observed [48][50]. - The report notes that while flows to US stocks have decreased, the overall allocation to US equities has followed benchmark weight changes, suggesting a more passive adjustment rather than an active reallocation [53][57]. Investor Behavior - The report emphasizes that the decline in US equity flows is not solely due to foreign selling but is largely driven by US investors reallocating their investments [20][28]. - High-quality data indicates a slowdown in foreign demand for US stocks, but net foreign buying remains positive, countering narratives of a significant withdrawal [31][35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the trends of reduced demand for US equities and increased interest in European stocks are likely to persist, influenced by ongoing policy uncertainties and currency market dynamics [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on the long-term structural story of the Chinese equity market, suggesting potential for fund inflows over the next 6-12 months [17][21]. Core Insights - Market volatility is expected to rise in the near term due to several upcoming global trade and tariff events, which could impact market risk appetite [3][9]. - The upcoming 2Q results season may reignite concerns over earnings, although the expectation is for results to be in line with previous quarters [10][11]. - Investor sentiment may be dampened by the expiration of lockup periods for high-momentum stocks, prompting preemptive reductions in exposure [12]. - The likelihood of major stimulus measures being introduced at the July Politburo meeting is low, with expectations shifting towards September or October for potential policy adjustments [14][15]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The report highlights critical dates in July and August that could lead to increased market volatility, including the expiration of tariff pauses and ongoing trade negotiations [3][4][9]. - The report notes that while the Chinese market has shown signs of recovery, uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and earnings results could lead to temporary profit-taking [11][22]. Earnings Outlook - The report anticipates that the 2Q earnings results will align with expectations, following a trend of normalization in earnings delivery since late 2024 [10][11]. - Concerns over earnings may be exacerbated by the timing of results coinciding with tariff negotiations, potentially leading to skepticism in the second half of 2025 [11]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment approach, advocating for exposure to high-quality tech and Internet companies while maintaining some dividend yield plays [21][22]. - The removal of Pop Mart from the focus list and the addition of PICC P&C is recommended due to its attractive yield and resilience during market volatility [13]. Long-term Outlook - Structural improvements in the Chinese equity market remain intact, with MSCI China trading at a fair valuation compared to other major indices [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the potential for global capital to gradually return to China's market as investors seek diversification amid a slower macro outlook [17][21].

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Technology - Software & Services in Europe [8] Core Insights - The report highlights several positive developments from the Hexagon LIVE conference, including the introduction of a humanoid robot named Aeon and a clearer strategy for Hexagon, although short-term earnings risks and a lack of clarity on the remaining Hexagon hinder a more constructive outlook [2][4] - RELX's partnership with Harvey is noted as a significant move in the legal AI sector, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and keeping RELX at the forefront of Legal AI [3] - Informa reported a 7.9% underlying growth in its AGM update, indicating solid performance across the group [3] Company Summaries Hexagon - Key takeaways from Hexagon include the rebranding of ALI to Octave and the announcement of Aeon, a humanoid robot [2] - The report suggests a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation but expresses caution due to short-term earnings risks and strategic clarity [2] RELX - The partnership with Harvey is seen as a strategic advantage, positioning RELX favorably within the Legal AI market [3] Informa - Informa's AGM update reflects a strong underlying growth performance of 7.9%, indicating positive momentum for the company [3] Autodesk - The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) data for May 2025 shows cautious optimism with month-over-month improvement in billings demand, although overall demand remains in decline [5] monday.com - The company is moving upmarket and expanding its product offerings, which presents both risks and opportunities, leading to an equal-weight rating due to fair pricing at approximately 34x EV/FCF [6] Salesforce - Analysis suggests potential upside to FY27/FY28 due to recent price increases [6] Back-Office Sector - The report indicates that the back-office sector is likely to be one of the first beneficiaries of AI, with ERP upgrades catalyzed by AI technology [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The G7 net DV01 is projected to be $94.3 million per basis point, which is higher than the average of $72.3 million per basis point, indicating increased market activity [2][12] - In the euro area, net issuance is expected to be €14.6 billion over the next five weeks, with a total supply of €97.7 billion against €18.2 billion in coupons and €64.9 billion in redemptions [3][41] - The US is anticipated to issue $342 billion in the next five weeks, resulting in a net issuance of $94.3 billion after accounting for $29.1 billion in coupons and $218.6 billion in redemptions [5][44] Summary by Sections Government Bond Auctions - The upcoming week will see significant bond issuances across various countries, including $69 billion in 2-year UST, $70 billion in 5-year UST, and $44 billion in 7-year UST in the US [4][5] - In the UK, issuances include £1.7 billion in UKTi 1.125% Gilt 2035 and £3.25 billion in UKT 4.375% Gilt 2040 [4] - Japan will issue ¥2.6 trillion in 2-year JGB and ¥1 trillion in 20-year JGB [6] Supply Overview - The report outlines a detailed schedule of bond supply for the upcoming weeks, indicating a robust issuance plan across G7 countries [11][42] - The total cash flow for the euro area is projected to be negative, with significant redemptions expected to exceed new issuances [41] G7 Gross and Net Issuance - The G7 gross issuance figures show fluctuations, with the US leading in issuance amounts, followed by Japan and Canada [12][18] - The net issuance data indicates varying trends across countries, with the US showing a positive net issuance while the euro area reflects negative net issuance [18][20]

June 20, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Waiting on the world to change The Fed remained on hold at the June meeting. The FOMC expects to see the effects of tariffs on inflation in the summer, as do we. Key Takeaways US Economics Weekly | North America 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Nov-26 Core PCE (%) y/y (%) 3-month SAAR (%) MS Forecast Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts M ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins and the internationalization of the RMB, emphasizing the long-term strategies being implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to enhance the RMB's global presence [17][21] - It highlights the increasing dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market, which has led to a rise in demand for US treasuries [23][24] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The PBoC is focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services in Shanghai to facilitate RMB internationalization [18] - New financial measures include promoting offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance and optimizing cross-border trade and investment [19] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, with over USD 120 billion backed by US T-bills, indicating a strong reliance on USD [24] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins has been rising, with a notable increase compared to traditional payment systems like Visa and MasterCard [22] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [20] - The report outlines the licensing requirements and operational standards for stablecoin issuers in both Hong Kong and the US [20] RMB's Global Position - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, indicating challenges in its international acceptance [31] - The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai aims to expand the RMB's global reach [29]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Henderson Land to "Overweight" (OW) from "Equal Weight" (EW) [8][14] - SHKP remains rated as "Overweight" (OW) [5][14] - Sino Land is downgraded to "Equal Weight" (EW) [14] - NWD and Wharf are rated as "Underweight" (UW) [5][14] Core Insights - Hong Kong's residential property market is showing signs of recovery after a seven-year decline, with prices down 30% from their peak in August 2021 [4][15] - The report anticipates a potential upcycle lasting 4-5 years, driven by structural under-supply, population growth, and favorable market conditions [4][15] - The CCL index has declined 30% since August 2021, with current affordability levels reverting to 2011 levels [4][15] - Developers are trading at a 60% discount to NAV, with strong balance sheets and dividend yields of 6-7%, indicating significant upside potential [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date, Hong Kong home prices have declined by 1.5%, which is better than the expected -5% for the first half of 2025 [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 21% year-to-date, positively impacting market sentiment [3][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is structurally under-supplied, with land sales collapsing in recent years and an increase in population and migrants from mainland China [4][10] - The removal of additional stamp duty since February 2024 has further stimulated demand from non-local buyers [3][39] Stock Selection - Preferred stocks include SHKP (OW), Henderson (OW), and Kerry (EW) due to their strong market positions and benefits from lower HIBOR [5][10] - NWD (UW) and Wharf (UW) are viewed with caution due to liquidity concerns and unattractive valuations [5][10] Price Forecasts - The report forecasts a flat year-over-year change in property prices for 2025, with a slight increase of 2% expected in the second half [29][30] - The effective mortgage rate has decreased to approximately 2%, benefiting the residential market and easing financing pressures for developers [53][59] Key Drivers of Recovery - Factors supporting the recovery include low HIBOR rates, population growth, and increased contributions from mainland buyers [20][39] - The report highlights that the current discount to NAV of 60% is not fully priced in, suggesting potential upside of 50% if valuations normalize [19][23]