Investment Rating - Zhongsheng Group Holdings (0881.HK): Overweight (OW) with a price target of HK$15.00, down from HK$17.00, implying a 32% upside [10][38] - Meidong Auto Holdings (1268.HK): Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of HK$2.20, up from HK$2.10, implying a 12% upside [10][38] - Yongda Automobiles Services (3669.HK): Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of HK$2.40, down from HK$2.50, implying a -2% downside [10][38] Core Insights - The new car margin for luxury internal combustion engine (ICE) brands is expected to remain negative in 2025, with dealer margins hitting historical lows in 2024 due to increased discounts [2][12] - Zhongsheng's after-sales revenue grew by 9% year-on-year in 2024, outperforming Yongda, which saw stagnant growth [3][19] - The opening of Huawei and Xiaomi stores is anticipated to contribute significantly to earnings growth in 2025, with Zhongsheng expected to see a 9% increase and Yongda a 70% increase in incremental earnings [4][25] Summary by Sections New Car Margin - The new car margin for dealers reached a historical low in 2024, with Zhongsheng's sales margin falling to -2.6% and aggregate new car margin dropping from 10.6% in 2021 to 2.4% in 2024 [2][12] - The preference for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) over global ICEs is expected to continue, impacting new car margins negatively [2][12] After-Sales Performance - After-sales performance is diverging among dealers, with Zhongsheng achieving a 9% increase in after-sales revenue in 2024, while Yongda's growth remained flat [3][19] - Zhongsheng's centralized repair facilities are a key factor in its ability to capture after-sales market share [3][20] Store Openings and Growth - Zhongsheng has opened 33 Huawei AITO stores, contributing to a 9% increase in earnings, while Yongda has opened 11 Huawei stores and plans to expand further [4][31] - Xiaomi store openings are expected to bring additional earnings, with estimates of Rmb10-15 million net profit per store for Yongda [25][31] Valuation and Market Position - Zhongsheng and Meidong are trading below their 5-year historical average P/E ratios, while Yongda is above average [26][32] - The report suggests that Zhongsheng's after-sales business and new car sales from Huawei stores will drive recovery in earnings from the 2024 trough [5][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining Group is Overweight, with an industry view classified as Attractive [5][68]. Core Insights - Zijin Mining Group reported higher management expenses year-over-year primarily due to increased employee bonuses following strong FY24 earnings. Gains from fair value are mainly attributed to stock investments [2]. - The company is slowing down the construction of its lithium projects due to low lithium prices, while aiming to improve project designs to reduce production costs. Zijin plans to be ready for a quick ramp-up when lithium prices become favorable [3]. - Zijin is negotiating the purchase of 100% of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana, believing the project has potential for increased reserves given the current high gold prices [4]. - The growth in copper production volume in 1Q25 was mainly driven by Julong and Zijinshan, while gold volume growth was primarily from Shanxi Zijin and Porgera gold mine. Zijin is utilizing more low-grade ore due to rising gold prices, which has led to some increased costs, but aims to keep cost increases within 5% year-over-year in 2025 [8]. Financial Metrics - The price target for Zijin Mining Group is HK$22.90, representing a 33% upside from the current price of HK$17.22 [5]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the estimated revenue is Rmb397,524 million, with an EBITDA of Rmb66,114 million and a net income of Rmb41,496 million [5]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb1.58, with a P/E ratio of 10.3 and a P/BV of 2.6 [5].

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Monthly Databook: What's the latest on PCs? We provide some thoughts and feedback from companies, and update our April and 2Q notebook build forecasts. What are we hearing from OEMs and ODMs? Currently, not much. None of the companies (ODMs/OEMs) we spoke with have discussed forecast or demand changes as a result of the recent policy changes. ODMs told us visibility is down materially after the reciprocal tariffs were announced, wh ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [16]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the core ingredients for a recovery in the industry are present, although a full recovery may take additional time [3]. - There is skepticism regarding the immediate pickup in SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) demand, suggesting that supply will likely remain busy [3]. - The report highlights that the new issue market is expected to remain active as long as ratios stay below 88-90% in 10-year bonds [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The estimated three-week gross supply is projected at $30 billion, with a bull-bear range of $25-32 billion [7]. - Dealer balances are reported to be above average, likely increasing by a few percent week-over-week [7]. - Bid wanted activity is expected to remain heavy, estimated at $1-2 billion per day [7]. Market Conditions - The report notes that ratios are up and yields are higher, with some bonds offering 5% coupons at par [7]. - High levels of rate volatility are likely to keep dealers cautious, as investors express unease over market volatility [7]. - A week without major headlines is deemed necessary to calm investor sentiment [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [5]. Core Insights - The 2Q25 iPhone build estimates have been raised by 4 million units to 45 million units, reflecting a 10% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 15% increase year-over-year. This adjustment is made to maintain legacy model stocking amid tariff uncertainties, rather than indicating strong demand [1][7]. - The 2Q25 iPad build forecast has been increased by 1.5 million units to 13 million units, representing an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 24% increase year-over-year. This is attributed to stronger-than-expected stocking momentum ahead of tariffs [2][7]. Summary by Sections iPhone Production - The iPhone production in 2Q25 is estimated at 45 million units, which is a 10% decline from the previous quarter but a 15% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This is primarily to keep legacy models stocked amid tariff uncertainties [1][7]. - Supply chain checks indicate that assembly partners are likely to accelerate production diversification, particularly increasing iPhone production in India, which is expected to be less than 15% in 2024 [1]. iPad Production - The iPad build forecast for 2Q25 has been raised to 13 million units, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 24% increase year-over-year. This increase is due to stronger-than-expected stocking momentum ahead of potential tariffs [2][7]. - The assembly split for iPads is approximately 70% in China and 30% in Vietnam, indicating less urgency to diversify production compared to iPhones [2].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 April 2025 (852) 2800-8513 karl.chan@jpmorgan.com Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com Venus Choi (852) 2800-8599 Property Data Monitor Mainland China: all leading indicators turned weak; HK: lackluster weekly sales Mainland China Hong Kong SAR See page 16 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors sho ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile Holdings is Overweight [3][12][78]. Core Insights - The report indicates a price target of HK$21.00 for Geely Automobile Holdings, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HK$16.54 [3][6][12]. - The earnings estimate for 2025 has been lowered by 14% to Rmb17 billion due to an accounting change, while the 2026 earnings estimate has been raised by 8% to Rmb21.5 billion [2][12]. - Geely is expected to continue premiumizing its product lineup, which should lead to significant gross margin expansion as price competition eases [10][12]. - The company is gaining market share domestically and is expanding its global footprint, which presents growth opportunities [12][21]. Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - Total sales volume estimates for 2025 are projected at 2,030,819 units, with net income expected to reach Rmb22,023.4 million [17][19]. - The average selling price (ASP) for Geely's vehicles is expected to be Rmb97,727 in 2025 [17]. Market Position - Geely has seen increasing market share in the domestic market and is actively developing its NEV (New Energy Vehicle) business [12][21]. - The profitability of the Lynk&Co brand is expected to stabilize and gradually improve, contributing positively to Geely's overall performance [11][12]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The report highlights that Geely's risk-reward profile is favorable, with a base case price target of HK$21.00 and a bull case target of HK$35.60 [6][10][16]. - The consensus price target distribution shows a range from HK$14.10 to HK$29.20, indicating varying market expectations [7][10].

越南调研纪要：关税影响；订单量未变，短期内加速交 付；长期内市场份额有望增长 4 月 9 日-11 日，我们组织调研了越南（河内、海防和胡志明市）的中国 纺织企业，实地考察了头部纺织/OEM 厂商（包括互太纺织、维珍妮、 超盈国际、新澳股份和华孚时尚），并与工厂厂长、高级管理人员和行 业专家进行了交流。交流纪要如下：1）本年迄今订单量保持强劲，产能 利用率保持在较高水平，但由于近年来中国向越南转移的产能增加，关 键问题是招工；2）目前美国客户尚未就订单作出反应（例如削减订单、 价格谈判等），尤其是耐克、阿迪、维密等大客户，但客户要求现有订 单在 90 天内（46%额外关税的暂停征收期）加速交付；3）鉴于美国和 越南正在积极谈判，越南纺织企业管理层对关税问题仍持谨慎乐观态度 ；虽然管理层认为全球需求存在不确定性，但预计长期内市场份额料将 增长；4）面对额外的关税负担，低个位数的均价折扣或许是 OEM 厂商 能够接受的最高水平。4 月 3 日以来，OEM 厂商股价大幅下跌（申洲国 际跌逾 20%；超盈国际跌逾 30%；同期恒生指数跌 8.5%），我们认为回 调幅度已过度。我们维持对头部 OEM 厂商（超盈国际、申 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tenaga Nasional (TENA.KL) with a price target of RM16.30, reflecting a 22% upside from the current price of RM13.38 [7]. Core Insights - The power market is expected to remain tight, but risks related to US chip exports to South Asia have emerged, prompting a reduction in the price target from RM20.60 to RM16.30 [1][5]. - Tenaga Nasional has experienced a 35% re-rating in 2024 due to higher-than-expected power demand and positive surprises in data center growth in Malaysia [2]. - The tightening of export controls on chips for China data centers and tariffs on Malaysian semiconductors pose risks to Tenaga's growth narrative, leading to adjustments in the cost of capital and long-term growth expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Valuation - The price target for Tenaga Nasional has been lowered to RM16.30 from RM20.60, reflecting increased risks associated with slower power demand growth [5][37]. - The implied target multiple has been adjusted from approximately 20x to 16x due to anticipated slower growth in power demand [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RM65,835 million, RM71,203 million, RM73,352 million, and RM75,278 million respectively [30]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised to RM0.90, RM1.00, and RM1.09, reflecting a decrease of 2%, 4%, and 13% respectively [34][33]. Market Dynamics - Load utilization in February 2025 was reported at 700MW, indicating a significant increase from 400MW in December 2024, with no slowdown observed in the data center pipeline [4]. - The report notes that Tenaga's data center pipeline remains robust, with 39 additional projects in the application stage and 60 at pre-consultation [4][21]. Regulatory and Economic Factors - The regulatory environment is expected to support Tenaga's capital expenditures, allowing for sustained dividends at a yield of 4% and earnings growth of 6-7% CAGR, even if data center demand disappoints in 2025 [5][41]. - The report highlights that Tenaga's profitability is set to benefit from energy transition investments and a growing demand for power, particularly from data centers [16][41].

April 14, 2025 04:00 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global M Update Short DXY Positions Continue to Build Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Source: DTCC, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Using options that were traded in the past three months and expire in the coming one month. Notionals are delta-adjusted. Data as of Friday, April 11. See FX Trading Signals From Options Data and Assessing FX Positioning with Currency Options. Exhibit 2: Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew M Watrous Strategist Andrew.Watrous@morganst ...