Investment Rating - The investment rating for Laopu Gold is Equal-weight with a price target of HK$980.00, indicating a 22% upside from the current price of HK$804.00 [5]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is a highly debated jewelry stock, with bullish investors focusing on short-term performance driven by gold prices and store openings, while bearish investors express concerns about long-term sustainability and execution risks [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant correlation between Laopu's stock valuation and gold prices, suggesting that Laopu could serve as a new proxy for gold investments [9][11]. Summary by Sections Bull vs. Bear Arguments - **Gold Price Impact**: Bulls argue that resilient gold prices will benefit Laopu, while bears warn that price volatility could lead to stock de-rating [3]. - **Fashion Risk**: Bulls believe Laopu's popularity reflects a lasting industry upgrade, whereas bears caution about the short cycles of fashion trends in China [3]. - **Store Opening**: Bulls see potential for revenue growth from new store openings, while bears highlight the risk of cannibalization and macroeconomic impacts on demand [3]. - **Execution Risk**: Bulls are optimistic about the founder's vision for store productivity, while bears question the feasibility of achieving such targets [3]. - **Competition**: Bulls note Laopu's established brand as a high-end heritage gold brand, while bears point out increasing competition with limited design differentiation [3]. - **Earnings Expectations**: Bulls project a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion for 2025, while bears suggest a lower consensus of Rmb3-4 billion, leading to concerns about high P/E ratios [3]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2025, Laopu is expected to generate a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion according to bullish estimates, with a projected P/E ratio of 18x [3][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at Rmb22.82 billion, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb5.75 billion [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that Laopu's revenue trends are largely supply-driven, with new store openings expected to contribute additional revenue with limited cannibalization [33]. - Laopu plans to expand its store presence both domestically and internationally, with openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore [34]. Consumer Insights - A survey indicates that consumers primarily purchase gold jewelry for self-reward and daily wear, with product quality and design being the top factors influencing brand choice [12][16]. - Laopu is perceived positively in terms of product quality and brand heritage, which may enhance its competitive position in the market [17][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd. is Overweight [5][17]. Core Insights - The price target has been raised to Rmb1,810 from Rmb1,742, reflecting a 4% increase based on fine-tuned earnings forecasts and a DCF model rolled forward to 2025 [3][9]. - The bull case price target is now Rmb2,262, up from Rmb2,177, while the bear case price target has been adjusted to Rmb1,045 from Rmb1,005 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Sales and Earnings Forecast - The 2025 sales growth target for Moutai is set at 9%, with a slight increase in EPS estimates for 2025 by less than 1% and a decrease of approximately 1% for 2026-2027 [3][8]. - The projected EPS for fiscal years ending in December are as follows: 2025e at Rmb74.87, 2026e at Rmb81.64, and 2027e at Rmb91.10 [5][23]. Investment Drivers - Moutai's channel structure is considered one of the healthiest in the industry, which is expected to help the company manage growth targets prudently [15]. - Strong brand positioning is highlighted as a key factor, making Moutai one of the most valuable stocks in its sector [15]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 13% respectively in the bull case scenario for 2024-2026 [13]. - In the base case scenario, revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 9% respectively for the same period [14]. Price Target Methodology - The price target is based on a discounted cash flow methodology with key assumptions including an 11% WACC and a 2% long-term growth rate [9].

Heading into 1Q earnings season, we believe the market continues to discount the anticipated/inevitable global demand slowdown driven by the U.S. tariffs/trade- related dynamics and remain selective on stocks (see our note we published last week on tariffs/trade here). We expect 1Q earnings season to kick off the negative earnings revision cycle with overall forward 12-month EPS estimates to be potentially cut by ~15-25% over the next two-three earning seasons, which we believe should help the semi stock bo ...

Semiconductors New Restrictions Impact Shipments of Nvidia's H20 And AMD's MI308 Solutions And Highlights Increasing Geopolitical Uncertainty; We Estimate 8-10% Impact to CY25 Earnings Tuesday after the market close, Nvidia put out an 8-k filing that stated that on April 9 th, the U.S. government (USG) imposed new license requirements for its H20 AI GPU products to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries. Overall we have several key takeaways. First, the export control affects the H20 and it ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 April 2025 Semiconductors/SPE Disco, TSMC, ASML results: Strong near-term outlook for Disco's memory-related products Uncertainty remains high in the semiconductor sector, given the Trump administration's changes in tariff policy (postponement of tariffs for semiconductor-related products, including SPE) and NVIDIA's disclosure of H20 chip export restrictions. Semiconductor related-stocks are down 23% YTD (simple average for our coverage; Figure 4), versus a 9% decline for TO ...

Investment Rating - The industry view for the Internet sector in North America is rated as Attractive [4][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights potential upside surprises in earnings for several companies, including Bumble Inc., Chewy Inc., Match Group Inc., and Trade Desk Inc. [6][8]. - Conversely, companies like Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., and Airbnb Inc. are expected to face downside surprises in their earnings [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of visibility versus valuation in the current market environment, suggesting that investors should consider both factors when making investment decisions [1]. Summary by Company - **Airbnb Inc (ABNB.O)**: Rated Underweight, price at $112.64 [65]. - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL.O)**: Rated Overweight, price at $153.33 [65]. - **Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O)**: Rated Overweight, price at $174.33 [65]. - **Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG.O)**: Rated Equal-weight, price at $4,540.84 [65]. - **DoorDash Inc (DASH.O)**: Rated Overweight, price at $179.39 [65]. - **Expedia Inc. (EXPE.O)**: Rated Equal-weight, price at $152.57 [65]. - **Chewy Inc (CHWY.N)**: Rated Overweight, price at $34.76 [67]. - **Meta Platforms Inc (META.O)**: Rated Overweight, price at $502.31 [65]. - **Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N)**: Rated Overweight, price at $73.06 [65]. - **Snap Inc. (SNAP.N)**: Rated Equal-weight, price at $7.74 [65]. - **Pinterest Inc (PINS.N)**: Rated Equal-weight, price at $25.45 [65]. - **Roblox Corporation (RBLX.N)**: Rated Overweight, price at $59.09 [67]. - **Yelp Inc (YELP.N)**: Rated Underweight, price at $33.55 [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].

April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Update Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Tetsuya Wadaki Equity Analyst Tetsuya.Wadaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8890 Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Sharon Shih Equity Analyst Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2865 Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Howard Kao Equity Analys ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to CATL, indicating a positive outlook for the company within the battery supply chain [2]. Core Insights - CATL's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with management reporting strong demand despite US tariffs. The company operates at a high capacity utilization rate and has raised its price target to Rmb330 per share [2][11]. - The company's net profit margin reached an all-time high of 16.5% in 1Q25, attributed to improved unit economics and margins [8][10]. - CATL's market share in China is expected to improve, with continued gains anticipated in the European market [11]. Financial Performance - 1Q25 battery shipments exceeded 120 GWh, with EV batteries accounting for approximately 80% of total shipments [18]. - Revenue for 1Q25 was Rmb 84.7 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, while net profit was Rmb 13.96 billion, a 33% increase year-over-year [32]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is revised to Rmb 13.92, reflecting a 20.2% growth compared to the previous year [30]. Market Dynamics - The US market represents only a low-single-digit percentage of CATL's total volume, and most contracts are on an FOB basis, meaning customers bear the additional import tariffs [8][20]. - Management confirmed that over half of CATL's energy storage system (ESS) shipments are now AC-side solutions, which have longer revenue recognition timelines [8][22]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb 330 is based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026E, which is at the lower end of the company's historical range due to slower industry growth [12][11]. - The report indicates that CATL's valuation is currently trading below its historical averages, suggesting potential upside [12][11]. Strategic Initiatives - CATL plans to build 1,000 battery swapping stations in 2025, with partnerships established with companies like Sinopec and Nio [26]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial vehicle (CV) battery market, expecting demand to outpace passenger vehicle (PV) demand due to policy support [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision in growth projections for Asia, with a specific focus on the impact of tariffs and related uncertainties on the economic outlook [3][29]. Core Insights - Asia's GDP growth is expected to slow sharply from 4.8% in 4Q24 to 3.6% in 4Q25, reflecting a decrease of 120 basis points [5][29]. - The weighted average tariff on Asia has increased significantly from 4.8% in January 2025 to 43.8%, contributing to a decline in trade and corporate confidence [1][13]. - The report emphasizes that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is likely to persist, affecting business cycles and investment decisions across the region [7][28]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Projections - The report forecasts a significant slowdown in Asia's GDP growth, with specific country projections indicating declines, such as China from 5.4% to 3.7% and Hong Kong from 2.4% to 1.2% [5][29]. - The overall GDP growth estimate for Asia is lowered to 4% for 2025, down from 4.4% previously [29]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the escalation of tariffs raises recession risks and has already negatively impacted the business cycle, leading to a wait-and-see approach among corporations [8][31]. - The likelihood of reaching trade deals varies by country, with economies like India, Japan, and Korea being more likely to secure agreements compared to China and Vietnam [10][9]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report anticipates more monetary easing across Asia, with specific measures expected from central banks in response to the economic slowdown [46][49]. - In China, a significant fiscal easing package is expected, while other Asian economies may face constraints due to rising public debt levels [56][57]. Sectoral Analysis - Trade-oriented economies such as Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia are projected to experience sharper slowdowns due to their exposure to tariff impacts [31][32]. - India is viewed as relatively better positioned due to supportive policy measures, although its growth forecast has also been adjusted downward [33][44].